2015: Premium Rucks

[DeliciousJedi]

Call me crazy but I'm thinking of starting with Ivan Maric.

Had groin and ankle issues last couple of years, but looked ok when he was back last year.

Any thoughts?

None at all, probably 5-10ppg undervalued, like Goldy but cheaper. Better value than Minson below him, who's got too many question marks about his ability to get back to top levels of scoring. I'd still pick NicNat but Maric is good for POD right now.

 

[Junior Wölf]

Call me crazy but I'm thinking of starting with Ivan Maric.

Had groin and ankle issues last couple of years, but looked ok when he was back last year.

Any thoughts?

I am also very tempted at getting him. But not sure about Hampson and if he will also ruck

 

[freowho]

The slight issue is that if you have your R/F on the forward field you may not have cover if one of your ruckman is a late out as either of your dpp r/f may have already played their game and hence locked into position. (Which is essentially paraphrasing Dimmawit's follow up post, so real purpose of this post is the upcoming example)

I did a quick check of my two likely premium rucks added with TBC in the forward line for up to round 10 and worked out that TBC only played after the 2 main rucks 7 out of 20 times, which would become even less when you add the rookie dpp's fixture into the equation.

Hence having TBC in the forward line gives me cover when I know at the start of the round one of my starting rucks is not playing but provides limited cover for a late out.

Well explained you have Yoda!

Dimmawitts point is a good one.
If you are only using TBC for a link to cover a Thursday night non selection then still pick the cheap R/F to sit at R3 and you have plenty of time to bring someone in to cover the donut. Last year people were waiting for Sandi to miss a game and he just kept going. If it happens early you can still bring in TBC plus you get an early look at which of your forwards is underperforming. If it happens later someone like Paddy Ryder could have had a nice price drop. Or it might not happen in which case you just keep making money out of the cheap rookie you wouldn't have had if you started with TBC.
If you are trying to cover a late out TBC needs to sit at R3. Lot of money for someone to sit on the bench all year.

 

[BC]

300kish f5 that hopefully averages 90+.
TBC locked in at this early stage.

 

[KLo30]

SuperCoach 2015: Adelaide ruckman Sam Jacobs to thrive as changes reward more than just hit-outs
Gilbert Gardiner Herald Sun December 28, 2014 7:00PM

RELIABLE and athletic ruckmen with deft hands at stoppages will be of utmost importance in SuperCoach 2015.

The workhorse is back in vogue after recent changes to reduce the number of ruckmen from four to three.

There’s also been an adjustment in scoring with rucks now rewarded for hit-outs to advantage.

What does this mean? Sam Jacobs is worth every cent.

Big Sauce Jacobs not only ranked second for overall hit-outs last year, he led the league in taps to advantage (257 at 33 per cent).

Jacobs averaged 115.4 from 22 games and is priced accordingly.

Shane Mumford and Stef Martin round out the top three on the money list, but it’s Aaron Sandilands (4th), Todd Goldstein (5th) and Matthew Lobbe (7th) who look the value.

Sandilands recovered from three seasons wrecked by injuries to play 21 games and in doing so led the league for hit-outs.

He ranked second to Jacobs with 235 hit-outs to advantage at 29 per cent. Goldstein enjoyed similar success at North Melbourne with 716 hit-outs (4th overall) including 29 per cent to advantage.

2014 SuperCoach bolter Stef Martin is way overs as a bona fide ruckman, while a soft start to the season could benefit Shane Mumford despite the high entry price.

Mumford’s ability to impact around stoppages with tackles and pressure boosts his value.

Wary of Port Adelaide’s twin towers in Matthew Lobbe and Patrick Ryder, the former looms as the value ruckman as long as he can maintain high stoppage minutes.

Lobbe held down Port’s ruck duties last year and looks to thrive under the heavy workload.

Prefer to watch the Lobbe-Ryder double act before investing hard-earned on the Power talls.

Luckless talls Matthew Kreuzer and Matthew Leuenberger head the list of cheapies and need only avoid injury to post solid numbers.

Meanwhile, the retirement of West Coast champion Dean Cox throws Scott Lycett ($418,400) in the deep end - worth keeping an eye on despite an awkward price.

Gold Coast recruit Peter Wright is the pick of the big kids.

2015 TOP-PRICED RUCKMEN

1. Sam Jacobs (Adelaide) $620,100

2. Shane Mumford (GWS Giants) $613,700

3. Stefan Martin (Brisbane) $600,200

4. Aaron Sandilands (Fremantle) $580,800

5. Todd Goldstein (North Melbourne) $574,400

6. Patrick Ryder (Port Adelaide) $543,400 fwd

7. Matthew Lobbe (Port Adelaide) $541,300

8. Ivan Maric (Richmond) $535,900

9. Will Minson (Western Bulldogs) $501,400

10. Nic Naitanui (West Coast) $488,300

HITOUTS TO ADVANTAGE LEADERS (to Round 23)

1. S. Jacobs (33%) 257

2. S. Hampson (30%) 98

3. A. Sandilands (29%) 235

4. T. Goldstein (29%) 211

5. M. Lobbe (28%) 193

6. S. Mumford (27%) 168

7. M. Pyke (26%) 115

8. W. Minson (25%) 193

9. R. Warnock (25%) 141

10. P. Ryder (25%) 135

Stats: Champion Data

 

[DeliciousJedi]

Yeah, players can get injured any day of the week. Because you might not be able to cover during a rolling lockout it's suddenly a bad idea?

I don't mind the discussion, I think it's great but I just don't see it as a bad thing. I don't know any forward rookies bar Clark who have an 80+ history.

Let's not forget it's not out of the realm of possibility that TBC starts scoring at 90+ being #1 ruckman.

Would it make any difference if it's Ryder?

 

[anfa18]

Yeah, players can get injured any day of the week. Because you might not be able to cover during a rolling lockout it's suddenly a bad idea?

I don't mind the discussion, I think it's great but I just don't see it as a bad thing. I don't know any forward rookies bar Clark who have an 80+ history.

Let's not forget it's not out of the realm of possibility that TBC starts scoring at 90+ being #1 ruckman.

Would it make any difference if it's Ryder?

The thing when comparing TBC with a rookie, is the 150-180k price difference and how you spend that additional cash. If TBC does average 90+ then he will likely be a good F6/F7 for the season.

TBC @85 + possible ruck cover vs rookie @65 + 150-180k + rookie cash generation.

With Ryder, that's a good question. I've had him in and out of my forward line, i'm just not sure how he will go sharing ruck duties with Lobbe and how it will affect his scoring.

 

[Nathan]

A lot of talk on this and other sites about negative points for 'clanger hitouts', no mention of this in the above HS article. From what I can tell the change is +3 hitout to advantage and no points for an ineffective hitout, 1 point for a hitout is no longer listed on the 'point scoring' section on the Supercoach homepage. I like this change as it brings into line with ineffective kicks and handballs. Was interested to see Naitanui not listed top 10 for hitouts to advantage.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

A lot of talk on this and other sites about negative points for 'clanger hitouts', no mention of this in the above HS article. From what I can tell the change is +3 hitout to advantage and no points for an ineffective hitout, 1 point for a hitout is no longer listed on the 'point scoring' section on the Supercoach homepage. I like this change as it brings into line with ineffective kicks and handballs. Was interested to see Naitanui not listed top 10 for hitouts to advantage.

I noticed that too, so checked out the 2014 Prospectus - this shows Naitanui's H/O Adv as 28% in 2013 and 28.7 in 2012 which is comparable to the top 5 above.

 

[Philzsay]

So looking at those percentages is anybody going to pick Hampson?

 

[OzRulesFootball]

So looking at those percentages is anybody going to pick Hampson?

I find this whole thing interesting about rucks will score more for hitout to advantage. At this stage my main thought is not to jump to any conclusions and not get too excited to invest heavily in the unknown of how it will play out. It may only effect some player averages by 2 to 5 ppg.

With Hampson as one of the higher percentages to advantage it won't matter too much if he is not getting the ruck job for much time.
Cannot recall last season exactly how it played out but Maric was injured before start of season and Hampson was rucking for most of the first month and a bit. He was better value than his price and did not surprise me he can have stints of scoring well. I think he got some small injury that had him off the field for a few weeks and it happened when Maric was already back and then Maric hit some good form and Hampson apparently not when he was fit again. I think a lot of the remainder of season Hampson was in VFL from memory, when he was fit to play. Don't think he ever had any good form to force his way back into team and Maric was doing well enough on his own that no real need for two ruckmen. If Maric gets injured again I'll take more interest in Hampson.

 

[jo_el]

It would be so funny if guys like Rockliff and Jacobs kill it from the start and average 110-120 min and no one has them because they are "too expensive"

 

[freowho]

I think the article is a little mischevious. My initial thought when I read it was that Sam Jacobs would get more points. But if you look at the scoring system on the supercoach website there are no points for a hitout, only 3 points for a hitout to advantage. So Jacobs at 33% hitouts to advantage maintains his scoring. The other ruckmen are all now overpriced on what they produced last year. The 3 ruck positions have made the reliable ruckmen more relevant but the change in scoring has made the discounted ruckmen more relevant.

 

[Nathan]

It would be so funny if guys like Rockliff and Jacobs kill it from the start and average 110-120 min and no one has them because they are "too expensive"

If Rockliff was to start season averaging 110-120 he would become a lot cheaper quickly and would be a failed starting selection.

 

[Nathan]

I noticed that too, so checked out the 2014 Prospectus - this shows Naitanui's H/O Adv as 28% in 2013 and 28.7 in 2012 which is comparable to the top 5 above.

What was Bergers H/O adv for 2013? Thanks

 

[freowho]

What was Bergers H/O adv for 2013? Thanks

Leuenberger 25.2% 7.7 per game. Kreuzer 25.0 6.3 per game. Bellchambers not listed for 2013. But 2012 was 27.5% 7.7 per game. Jacobs had 11.7 per game which is probably more important than percentage.

 

[johno686]

What was Bergers H/O adv for 2013? Thanks

Looks like it was 25%

 

[Brettthejett]

so with the talk that hitouts 1 point is scrapped and only 3 points for hit out to advantage im guessing that there is going to be a 25% or so downfall in points that premium rucks will score.
unless they lift there to advantage rate to 40-50% i cant see them averaging the same as last year unless they pick up more possies or kick more goals.
Thus making it even harder to pick a guy like big sauce or sandi at there prices. thoughts???

 

[Nathan]

so with the talk that hitouts 1 point is scrapped and only 3 points for hit out to advantage im guessing that there is going to be a 25% or so downfall in points that premium rucks will score.
unless they lift there to advantage rate to 40-50% i cant see them averaging the same as last year unless they pick up more possies or kick more goals.
Thus making it even harder to pick a guy like big sauce or sandi at there prices. thoughts???

Going on last seasons numbers Sauce would be the only player to maintain his hitout points.

 

[sven_inc]

My understanding was that last year it was a HO = 1 point and if it went to advantage that was 4 (1HO + 3HO to advantage). Was this the case or am I stuck in an old scoring system? That or I think i've mixed SC and DT together.