Analysis Sam Dwyer

[Impromptu]

Sam Dwyer of Collingwood is rookie priced with not many games expected. As a SuperCoach strategy, he may be in your 2013 SuperCoach team.

Name - Sam Dwyer (COL)
Position - MID / FWD
Price - $96,200
Average - N/A
Draw - Not relevant

I don't know much about Sam Dwyer, but right now he is a lock for me.

No, I haven't lost my mind. No, it's not a typographical error. And No, I'm not trying to be funny and waste your time; ROFL. I don't expect Dwyer to play any games for Collingwood in 2013, but why is Dwyer a lock for me in SuperCoach 2013?

I think by now you may have guessed why Dwyer is a lock in my SuperCoach team in 2013.

If you are still unsure about this riddle, then you need to read the Floating Donut article. If you have already read the article, a refresher won't hurt

In short, the Floating Donut strategy includes the selection of a player who will not or is very unlikely to play in 2013, but is used for the Captain Loophole or Emergency Loophole.

For me, Sam Dwyer is the perfect candidate to be the Floating Donut!

REASONS FOR SAM DWYER

The first thing, I looked at is price and looked for the players with the lowest price, $96,200. It's a double positive picking a $96,200 player; namely you want to use the least amount of money for this player and the fact that the player is priced at $96,200 means he is a rookie and needs to be elevated off the rookie list to actually be named in the team. Currently, the $96,200 priced player positions in SuperCoach Gold include 5 DEF, 9 MID, 3 RUC and 8 FWD; noting some players have DPP entitlements.

The second thing, I looked for players with DPPs. The reason is it gives you more flexibility in taking advantage of the Emergency Loophole of the Floating Donut. This eliminates all, except the Collingwood rookies of Adam Oxley (FWD/DEF), Ben Richmond (FWD/DEF), Sam Dwyer (MID/FWD) and Sydney rookie of Xavier Richards (FWD/DEF). I then decided to pick the player, which plays in the SuperCoach position which we would likely use the Emergency Player Loophole of the Floating Donut strategy. That leaves the one and only Sam Dwyer!

The third thing I looked at is the draw. This is not how good or how bad the draw is for the particular player as the Floating Donut is a player, you don't want named in 2013. Dwyer plays for the Collingwood, thus the strategy could be that Dwyer is EMG and Dane Swan or Scott Pendelbury as your initial captain at the start of a round. A possible strategy.

• Round 1-3 - Ablett (VC), Dwyer (EMG), Swan/Pendles (C)
• Rounds 4 - Selwood/JPK(VC), Dwyer (EMG), Swan/Pendles (C) (EDITED - Can't be Buddy(VC)! Similar game time!)
• Rounds 5-6 - Not Applicable as Collingwood play first game of round
• Rounds 7 - Watson/Cotchin/Cox(VC), Dwyer (EMG), Swan/Pendles (C)
• Round 8 - Ablett (VC), Dwyer (EMG), Swan/Pendles (C)
• Rounds 9-10 - Not Applicable as Collingwood play first game of round
• Round 11-12 - Ablett (VC), Dwyer (EMG), Swan/Pendles (C)

REASONS AGAINST SAM DWYER

The most obvious reason for not selecting Sam Dwyer is that you do not believe in the Floating Donut. However, don't forget the benefits of the Floating Donut are Captain Loophole and Emergency Player Loophole.

My reasoning for selecting Sam Dwyer is obvious and unless someone is willing to pay an extra surcharge, ie over $96,200 and find another rookie who will play more games at the end of a round, Dwyer is locked and loaded.

Now the trick is to have another Floating Donut

Verdict: LOCKED(1)

 

[Nk29]

I like it and I was going to use him, but seeing as there are no great ruck rookies I think I'll be using McBean instead (also coz I have Cox in fwds and Sandilands in rucks). More likely to come in a little later for me when I use him more for the emergency loophole.

 

[IDIG]

Apparently been training the house down and looking to be promoted early in the year.... just kidding!

I'll be looking to take advantage of the captain loophole and emg player loophole so he's a lock for me. Love the round guide to captain, vc, emg options, will definitely be referring back to this during the season. Are the captain choices from Sunday games? That would appear to be the best timing/scenario.

 

[Impromptu]

I like it and I was going to use him, but seeing as there are no great ruck rookies I think I'll be using McBean instead (also coz I have Cox in fwds and Sandilands in rucks). More likely to come in a little later for me when I use him more for the emergency loophole.

Agree, but note below

Now the trick is to have another Floating Donut

Responding to Nk29

Apparently been training the house down and looking to be promoted early in the year.... just kidding!

LOL

 

[Nk29]

Agree, but note below

Responding to Nk29

Definitely want multiple floating donuts, but early on I want as many scoring players as possible to make as much cash as possible with just 1 floating donut. Later on I want one in each position though.

Apparently been training the house down and looking to be promoted early in the year.... just kidding!

Wouldn't be such a bad thing if he could make his way into their best 21 somehow. Would score well (based on vfl) and would be really cheap.

 

[Rowsus]

Jay, Jay, Jay! don't give away all our secrets!
Already had him locked and loaded at F8 for all the reasons you said, PLUS
I believe he can play, and if one of the Collingwood big names goes missing, as they did last year, he is a sneaky chance to pinch hit 90-100 for 5 or 6 games.

 

[Impromptu]

Jay, Jay, Jay! don't give away all our secrets!
Already had him locked and loaded at F8 for all the reasons you said, PLUS
I believe he can play, and if one of the Collingwood big names goes missing, as they did last year, he is a sneaky chance to pinch hit 90-100 for 5 or 6 games.

You gave me a big laugh with that post (literally!)...ROFL

Your PLUS comment is duly noted, and you are 100% right.

If Dwyer does play, we get a cashcow and find a new Floating Donut!

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Jay, Jay, Jay! don't give away all our secrets!
Already had him locked and loaded at F8 for all the reasons you said, PLUS
I believe he can play, and if one of the Collingwood big names goes missing, as they did last year, he is a sneaky chance to pinch hit 90-100 for 5 or 6 games.

Much like Sam Fibson from the Roos in 2013. To be honest I haven't totally decided on my floating donut as yet, or the fact of I will intend to go down that path. Dwyer is a good chance to be my F8 due to a lack of quality forward rookies with good JS, hence the place to use him and the fact he has a DPP link.

 

[mpollock]

I like the idea of using someone like McBean as a captain loophole each week.
I don't really expect to make much cash off my 4th ruck ....

I don't overly like the idea of sacrificing another rookie although i think even without deliberately playing a 2nd "floating donut" you will have plenty of weeks that this option will be made available. The nature of most rookies is to miss every 2 or 3 games anyway ... someone like a Murdock for example will play some games but probably only every 2nd week or so ...

 

[Hondo]

Just asking but is it optimistic to expect we will have 28 of our 30 players play each week and would the floating donut be better as a downgrade target for cash? I was planning on my R4 being the C loophole player under the assumption that I'd have at least one other player missing each week.

Maybe I need to revisit the floating donut article and have missed the point

 

[Rowsus]

Just asking but is it optimistic to expect we will have 28 of our 30 players play each week and would the floating donut be better as a downgrade target for cash? I was planning on my R4 being the C loophole player under the assumption that I'd have at least one other player missing each week.

Maybe I need to revisit the floating donut article and have missed the point

Totally optimistic. If you have 25 or 26 players playing by round 7 or 8 you've had some good luck.

 

[mpollock]

How many you have playing by round 7 kind of depends on if you go for the likes of Staker and Pittard who i expect to get plenty of games. Also with mature aged recruits like B.Goodes, Terlich and Jones to name a few, these guys were recruited for a reason especially at a lower ranking club.

So perhaps 28 is not that unrealistic depending on who you pick ...

 

[mpollock]

The rucks however may make 28 a little harder ... but Currie/Daw/Rowe should at least get some games ... along with the Collingwood back up rucks ..

 

[Impromptu]

Just asking but is it optimistic to expect we will have 28 of our 30 players play each week and would the floating donut be better as a downgrade target for cash? I was planning on my R4 being the C loophole player under the assumption that I'd have at least one other player missing each week.

Maybe I need to revisit the floating donut article and have missed the point

Totally optimistic. If you have 25 or 26 players playing by round 7 or 8 you've had some good luck.

Agree with Rowsus that 25 to 26 is good.

But the Floating Donut covers 2 positions by the use of his partner in crime, say Rockliff.

Give you an example with Daniher (FWD). Let's assume Daniher or an alternative gets games. Daniher actually covers the FWD as well as the MIDs with the Floating Donut. Why?

If your Forward say Buddy is out, Daniher covers Buddy. Now say Ablett is out, Daniher (FWD) also covers him, because the Floating Donut floats to the Forward Bench, Rockliff Floats to Midfield Starter and Daniher jumps on the field. Thus Daniher (FWD) has actually covered Ablett (MID).

You only need 26 players playing and with the rolling lockout, in the worst case scenario, you use a trade or two.

For me the optimal amount is 26-27, which means you have ONE proper bench player in EACH position and some floating donuts and maybe some bad rookies, which you just cop as a mistake.

 

[mpollock]

But nobody is starting buddy are they I agree you get more out of a DPP floating donut ... but you still will be sacrificing two rookie cash cows ...

 

[Impromptu]

But nobody is starting buddy are they I agree you get more out of a DPP floating donut ... but you still will be sacrificing two rookie cash cows ...

Yes, but people forget that a cashcow is only a cashcow if he does well. If there are cashcows with a low breakeven after 2 games, which I missed then I'll make the executive decision to waste a trade. I back myself to pick most of the cashcows and if I miss 1 or 2, then I'll waste 2 trades.

For the record, I have no doubt I'll have 2 or more Floating Donuts (maybe an article in mid February, but need to do a risk/return analysis first).

I won't be starting Buddy in SuperCoach 2013, but he is great to use in examples.

 

[mpollock]

Was just kidding on the buddy thing

I will be interested to read your risk/return ... without going into it in to much detail it seems having a playing DPP rookie gives more return to me ... plenty of time to crunch the numbers however before the season

 

[Philzsay]

Voted Unlikely.

Firstly like others have said already I plan to use McBean as my primary floating donut as he also helps create extra ruck backup (being my F7 via R/F and Cox).

Secondly I am hesitant to deliberatly sacrifice bench cover. I have too many memories on Thursday night selections of "Oh crap, 5 of my players have been dropped!" I realise we have extra trades, the rolling lockout etc but I hate trading just for the sake of covering a one week donut. Also the structure has changed so we have 2 players covering for 8 midfielders and potentially 2 players covering for 8 forwards/rucks (if you use r/f and don't have a reliable r3). If anything if I was to select another deliberate floating donut it would be a back where there is 2 spots to cover just 6 players.

Lastly, and I mentioned this in the floating donut article, I am sort of relying on injuries/suspension/players dropped to be used as emergency loophole donuts.

 

[johno686]

Big risk to take and i like having guys getting me money sitting on the bench. Ruck 4 for me with StringBean.

 

[Fluffywhitebirds]

An interesting analysis and idea. I come down on the side of using the slot for a cash-generating rookie instead of an extra floating donut, but even if I went down this path I'm not sure Sam Dwyer is the point-maximising call.

Reason is if you want to use a floating donut you ideally want your floating donut to play late in the round, so you have the benefit of seeing what your EMG player has scored. If we look at Collingwood, they only play in Sunday/Monday games 6 times, and in the last game of the round 3 times. Melbourne play the most on a Sunday/Monday (11 times), and West Coast plays the most last games of the round (5 times). If we look at Adelaide, they have a better mix than Collingwood (9 times Sunday/Monday, 3 times last game), and have a similar MID/FWD rookie who is unlikely to play (although granted more likely to play compared to Sam Dwyer...) in Rory Atkins at $109,500.

So, the question for me would become do I want to spend an extra ~$13k on a rookie (Rory Atkins vs Sam Dwyer) for the improved late-round positioning?

I'd answer this question by comparing it to what you'd do with the $13k. If we assume for each $100k at start of season you'd look for an average of a 10 PPG improvement from Player X vs Player Y, then $13k is worth 1.3 PPG or 29 points over the course of the season (1.3 PPG x 22 games). So, question is, is the extra 3 late round games Adelaide has compared to Collingwood worth more than 29 points on aggregate?

I'd suggest the answer to this is yes. Even assuming the floating donut only pays off in 2 of the 3 extra late round games, it could account for anywhere from 20 - 80 points.

Anyway, a bit rats and mice, but every point counts...