Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

G'day Row,

I like Christensen this year, will be left alone to roam around. I also like T Lynch from Gold Coast. These 2 could be top ten forwards this year. Your thoughts?

Cheers mate

G'day Juz,
to be honest, I don't like either of them. Christensen is in doubt to play round 1, and will have a pretty restricted pre-season. Lynch is 199cm tall, and the only players that tall I will be looking at for my team will be Rucks. Avoid players 193cm+, unless they are Rucks, or have proven SC records.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus
Are you planning to issue a 2015 version of your RAMP model? I found it invaluable this year and would love to be able to use it again in the coming season.

Also, do you (or anyone else) know when the 2015 player prices are going to be released? From memory, I think it was around this time last year but I haven't heard anything yet.

Cheers

Hi RB,
I'm not sure. It's a lot of work, and when I did all that work last season I was unemployed, so I had lots of time. It uses a lot of the same "grunt work" as FTB, and I'm struggling to get the time for that right now, too. The other side of getting RAMP up for distribution is, going by feedback on last years edition, only 8 to 10 people found it be a useful tool. It's a lot of work for 8 to 10 happy customers.

Rowsus,

Are you going to make your wonderful RAMP spreadsheet available again this year?

CC

CC,
I'm short of time, and the amount of time it takes compared to the amount of people that found it useful last season, means I can't justify doing it.
Sorry.

 

[Rowsus]

greetings Rowsus,
I loved your series on parallels with Investment Theory - when the next rainy day comes along I plan to offer some thoughts; a long spell teaching that stuff at stage 2 level and above at a couple of decent Universities might allow me to make some interesting observations.

After the flattery, the question. Mean reversion. That seems to be what is often discussed here, albeit often with a different title. For example, JS suggests that Kade Simpson might well average 92 this year. So, if after a good start he is averaging 100+ then it is sell time. Why because if he ends up averaging 92 then (simple assumption - mid-season) he will average <84 for the remainder of the season. OK, I think we all understand the concept and the simple arithmetic.

When a player's current average diverges from his historic average is mean reversion more likely when he is scoring below or above his historic average? Or is the relationship symmetric? In a regression would age, number of games, position ..... be likely to be significant explanatory variables?

I ask about historic data because expectations are subjective and many here will have different expectations about the same players. I think I read somewhere you like a minimum of three years data to draw a reasonable inference - seems fair. You might have answered this question or something very similar previously - if so I apologise for not having read all the threads.

Thanks in advance.

greetings chels,
welcome aboard, and thanks for the kind words.
Without being able to actually quote you the exact figures, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind, a player is more likely to experience a correction back towards his ESP (expected scoring pattern), when he is scoring above what you expect. There can be many reasons a player is scoring below his ESP. Many of these reasons may not "automatically" correct themselves. Carrying niggling injuries, change of role, change of Coach etc. The one thing that will nearly 100% of the time be corrected, is a player playing out of his skin, or on a hot streak.
If you've read my answer to sven_inc at post #2839, you can see that age is definitely a factor in these things. This is reflected in the fact, that the older a player is, the harder it is for him to replicate his historical scores. Hoping a 32 year old, who has an ESP of 112 and is scoring at 92 will be able to lift his average up to his ESP in the last 10-12 games, is probably hoping too much. But if he was 25 or 26 years old, he'd be much more chance to achieve it.
Definitely, some Coaches have different expectations about individual players than other Coaches. This is obviously why we end up with different teams. The one thing I try to hammer home, time and time again, is for people to have reasonable expectations. So often I see written on this site that people think it is a given that player X will average 120 in the coming season. Player X has never managed better than around 110, but because he is on a upward trend in scoring, they assume it will keep going. They forget the fact, that in 10 seasons of SC only 22 players have managed a 120+ season, and there have only been a total of 33 120+ seasons posted! Reasonable expectations also apply to regression to the mean type thinking. If a player has an ESP of 110, and is sitting at 95 at the halfway mark of the season, and you think he is a bargain, it is probably better to hope/expect he can get his average up to 103-105 by the end of the season, rather than his ESP of 110. Both mean he will score very well from here, but the 110 would have him scoring at around 10/game higher in the last half of the season, than 105 expectation would suggest.

 

[Rowsus]

Can you name those other 13 players, Rowsus? That's great insight all round, especially that it only took 12/14 players to their 5th season to reach the 100 mark. Sort of like if they don't hit the mark early, then lightning wont strike twice again.

In no particular order, the 14 players are:
Pavlich - joined in 2005 with 111.2, this was his 6th season of AFL, but it was the year SC started. We can't be sure he wouldn't have joined the 110+ Club earlier, if it had been available. He has one better score, 115.6 in 2007.
Chapman - joined in 2007 with 112.8, this was his 8th season of AFL, and once again we can't be sure what the seasons prior to 2005 would have produced, SC-wise. He has 2 better scores, 119.0 in 2009 and 116.4 in 2010.
Judd - joined in 2005 with 114.5, this was his 4th season of AFL. He bettered this score 3 times. 131.8 in 2006, 118.5 in 2010, 115.5 in 2011.
Mitchell S - joined in 2005 with 110.1, this was his 4th AFL season. He bettered this score twice. 113.4 in 2011 and 110.8 in 2012.
Swan - joined in 2009 with 123.2, this was his 7th AFL season. He probably wouldn't have made the Club in his 1st 2 seasons. He bettered his joining score twice, 126.9 in 2010 and 126.2 in 2012.
Ablett - joined in 2007 with 114.2, this was his 6th season, and as with others, we can't be sure what 2004, and earlier would have brought. In fact, I have been trying for 3 years to find his 2005 score! He has bettered his joining score in all 7 years since, by at least 12.9.
Goddard - joined in 2009 with 115.5, this was his 7th season. His only better score was in 2010, with 130.2
Murphy M - joined in 2009 with 112.9, this was his 4th season. He has only bettered this once, in 2011 with 118.0.
Selwood J - joined in 2009 with 110.9, this was his 3rd season, and he has bettered it every season since.
Pendlebury - joined in 2010 with 110.5, this was his his 5th season. He has bettered this by at least 13.9 every season.
Goldstein - joined in 2011 with 113.2, this was his 4th season. He has bettered this only once, with 113.5 in 2013.
Rockliff - joined in 2011 with 113.6, this was his 3rd season. He bettered it last season with 132.0.
Bowden J - joined in 2005 with 110.1, this was his 10th season of AFL, but the first of SC, so we can only guess when he might have joined. He bettered this twice with 125.1 in 2006 and 117.3 in 2007.
Cox - joined in 2005 with 111.8, this was his 5th AFL season. As with others, we can only guess how his earlier seasons faired. He bettered his joining score twice with 122.2 in 2011 and 112.3 in 2012.

It's definitely an inexact science, given SC is only 10 years old, but there is no doubt a correlation between the earlier you break the 110 barrier, the more likely you are to do it again. Sort of commonsense anyway, I guess.

 

[chels]

Terrific stuff Rowsus, thank you.

"Reasonable expectations also apply to regression to the mean type thinking. If a player has an ESP of 110, and is sitting at 95 at the halfway mark of the season, and you think he is a bargain, it is probably better to hope/expect he can get his average up to 103-105 by the end of the season, rather than his ESP of 110." This suggests some sort of Bayesian revision occurs based on updated information about probabilities rather than pig headedly insisting on sticking to the original, now increasingly likely erroneous, estimates.

As an at times pig headed SC player I need to learn to revise estimates on what is happening not what I would like to be happening.

 

[simonoz]

As an at times pig headed SC player I need to learn to revise estimates on what is happening not what I would like to be happening.

..........its called sometimes going with your gut Chels

snoz

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Row, me again!

Assuming a player doesnt have years of history to support or reject the numbers, how long a period, or how many games, do you think you need to reliably use points and points/tog100% numbers?

A couple of examples from last year:

Lachie Neale
Last 10 games of 2014 resulted in approx 140 points/tog100%

Ivan Maric (has a longer history but only 3 years at Richmond)
Last 8 games of 2014 resulted in 110.4 points per game

Thanks again!

 

[chels]

mikebray6, Lachie Neale's history (year, games, SC points):
2012 11 47.4
2013 9 86.9
2014 21 87.2

Your query is a nice variation on the time honoured "has he now broken out" question. 21 year old, 41 games, midfielder are all pluses. A repeat of his 2013 average is possibly a negative. The probability of a higher average next year is likely to be above average. How high? Perhaps there is a hint in Rowsus's words from post #2843: "The one thing I try to hammer home, time and time again, is for people to have reasonable expectations. So often I see written on this site that people think it is a given that player X will average 120 in the coming season. Player X has never managed better than around 110, but because he is on a upward trend in scoring, they assume it will keep going. They forget the fact, that in 10 seasons of SC only 22 players have managed a 120+ season, and there have only been a total of 33 120+ seasons posted!"

 

[Blue Dragons]

mikebray6, Lachie Neale's history (year, games, SC points):
2012 11 47.4
2013 9 86.9
2014 21 87.2

Your query is a nice variation on the time honoured "has he now broken out" question. 21 year old, 41 games, midfielder are all pluses. A repeat of his 2013 average is possibly a negative. The probability of a higher average next year is likely to be above average. How high? Perhaps there is a hint in Rowsus's words from post #2843: "The one thing I try to hammer home, time and time again, is for people to have reasonable expectations. So often I see written on this site that people think it is a given that player X will average 120 in the coming season. Player X has never managed better than around 110, but because he is on a upward trend in scoring, they assume it will keep going. They forget the fact, that in 10 seasons of SC only 22 players have managed a 120+ season, and there have only been a total of 33 120+ seasons posted!"

Hi Chels,

For me, if i were to select someone like Neale, it would be for value purposes. I am not expecting him to average ridiculous numbers, however, based on his pts/tog100% from 2014 alone, if his TOG increased up to just 78% he would be averaging 100pts.

I chose Ben Cunnington for similar reasons last year and while he had a good season and all his numbers/tog were impressive..his TOG didnt rise so it didnt really work out as hoped.

 

[chels]

g'day mikebray6
I think you are on the money with Lachie Neale in the sense that many of the variables that are often present when a player lifts his SC performance are present with him. I know my mate sNoZ hopes we are both right. He will not sell me Neale in a keeper league we are both in!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row, me again!

Assuming a player doesnt have years of history to support or reject the numbers, how long a period, or how many games, do you think you need to reliably use points and points/tog100% numbers?

A couple of examples from last year:

Lachie Neale
Last 10 games of 2014 resulted in approx 140 points/tog100%

Ivan Maric (has a longer history but only 3 years at Richmond)
Last 8 games of 2014 resulted in 110.4 points per game

Thanks again!

It's hard to quantify a number of games when looking for young break out players. It's more of looking for a potential role change that hopefully carries over from one season to the next. Then seeing that the important stats are trending up, and have potential to continue that way.

mikebray6, Lachie Neale's history (year, games, SC points):
2012 11 47.4
2013 9 86.9
2014 21 87.2

Your query is a nice variation on the time honoured "has he now broken out" question. 21 year old, 41 games, midfielder are all pluses. A repeat of his 2013 average is possibly a negative. The probability of a higher average next year is likely to be above average. How high? Perhaps there is a hint in Rowsus's words from post #2843: "The one thing I try to hammer home, time and time again, is for people to have reasonable expectations. So often I see written on this site that people think it is a given that player X will average 120 in the coming season. Player X has never managed better than around 110, but because he is on a upward trend in scoring, they assume it will keep going. They forget the fact, that in 10 seasons of SC only 22 players have managed a 120+ season, and there have only been a total of 33 120+ seasons posted!"

Hi Chels,

For me, if i were to select someone like Neale, it would be for value purposes. I am not expecting him to average ridiculous numbers, however, based on his pts/tog100% from 2014 alone, if his TOG increased up to just 78% he would be averaging 100pts.

I chose Ben Cunnington for similar reasons last year and while he had a good season and all his numbers/tog were impressive..his TOG didnt rise so it didnt really work out as hoped.

g'day mikebray6
I think you are on the money with Lachie Neale in the sense that many of the variables that are often present when a player lifts his SC performance are present with him. I know my mate sNoZ hopes we are both right. He will not sell me Neale in a keeper league we are both in!

Lachie Neale has been high on my watch list for 2015 since late in the 2014 season. Here is what I prepared on him in Nov 2014.

It won't surprise Mike I mention Cunnington in there, as we both had an interest in him early in 2014. The change in the Ruck scoring has given me a slight doubt on Neale. One of his attractions to me was, that I read he was just about one of the best in the League in the last 6 to 8 weeks of the season, at getting first hands on the ball at stoppages. We have now learnt that scores one point less than it used to do, if the hitout is awarded as "being to advantage". That's probably not enough to stop me taking the value punt on him though. The news that Fyfe may be pushing Forward more this season is also a plus for Neale, as it might mean that they are planning for Neale to be at more stoppages this season. At the moment I have Neale and 2 Def value picks I will be punting on. There's usually little downside to punting on young Def value picks.

As to Maric, I won't be touching him. His Coach was quoted as saying (either after 2013, or before 2014) that his injury was chronic, and would need to be handled/managed as an going thing throughout his career. We saw that with him missing games early last season. He obviously came good near the end of the season, and can score well when he is fit. I'm just worried it is more when, not if, the problem will require more "management".

 

[jarrad_]

who are your choices for midprice breakout players in the backline besides harwood??

thanks in advance

 

[Rowsus]

who are your choices for midprice breakout players in the backline besides harwood??

thanks in advance

Johannisen and Docherty are my 2 Def value picks at the moment. I thought I had a sneaky pick in Johannisen, until Jordan posted this a week or so ago in the Great Pre-Season Info thread. It is nearly impossible to have a sneaky pick that goes undiscussed these days, I guess.

Higgins moving to North Melbourne has left open a spot in the backline at the kennel and the player most likely to take it would be a small defender who plays that quarter back type rebounding role that higgins played. i am looking at Jason Johannisen (played 11 games 2014)
Yes the South African's supercoach average for 2014 doesn't look too impressive at a measly 64 and awkwardly priced this year at $334,500 nothing really jumps out at you.
Shaun Higgins missed 2 games last year, they were rounds 17 and 18.
JJ (Jason Johannisen) played 11 games in 2014, missed some to small injuries and struggled to break into the bulldogs side due to having to compete with Shaun Higgins for that role at the Dogs. in the 2 games that Shaun Higgins missed JJ scored 118 and 107 for an average of 113.
In the 2 games that Shaun Higgins missed JJ played the role of the rebounding half back flanker using his speed and accurate kicking to hit targets up the ground.

JJ's average without Shaun Higgins = 113
JJ's average with Shaun Higgins = 53
JJ's 2014 season average = 64

also to add his average before bye was = 39
and his average post bye was = 85

it is hard to put him in your team now but he is definitely placed very high on my NAB CUP watch-list.
I think he might of been injured in the 2014 pre season but i cant confirm this but im pretty sure he was injured once during the year, if anyone knows when please tell me.
not sure what the deal with Brett Goodes is, im pretty sure he is on the rookie list but he did play Shaun higgins role 2 years ago when Higgins was injured and scored quite well but Goodes is still on the rookie list and unless he is elevated i would be looking at JJ.

 

[freowho]

Lachie Neale has been high on my watch list for 2015 since late in the 2014 season.

"I have a slight fear he might turn out to be a Cunnington and not progress his TOG%." Rowsus

Unfortunately you might be right Rowsus.

Some of the Freo training spotters have reported that his preseason running hasn't been as good as last year. Some of the other mids game time last year (including finals) were Fyfe 84.6% Mundy 78.6%, Barlow 78.8%, D Pearce 77.7%, S Hill 79.7%, Mzungu 84.1%. Even as a full time member of the midfield rotation I only expect 77-78% TOG. He also averaged 71 in losses and 99 in wins although Freo might still win enough games for this not to matter. He won't go backwards but I don't expect a Parker like breakout unless Fyfe Barlow or Mundy get long term injuries.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Hi Rowsus.

How do the statistics stack up for Marc Murphy this year?

What do you expect him to average?

 

[Brettthejett]

Hi rowsus,
Your thoughts on Michael Barlow?
Started him last year was good the first round or two
then got injured. Was a good pod for me at the start
of last year. Can he go bigger this year or with the freo
clan getting older will they be less games won and thus
less points shared between freo players.
Cheers and thanks in advance

 

[Blue Dragons]

Amazing stuff Row! Hopefully he can get his fitness up if thats the issue and he will slot nicely into my team! At his price it could be a great pickup.

 

[siwel]

Johannisen and Docherty are my 2 Def value picks at the moment. I thought I had a sneaky pick in Johannisen, until Jordan posted this a week or so ago in the Great Pre-Season Info thread. It is nearly impossible to have a sneaky pick that goes undiscussed these days, I guess.

It's hard to quantify a number of games when looking for young break out players. It's more of looking for a potential role change that hopefully carries over from one season to the next. Then seeing that the important stats are trending up, and have potential to continue that way.







Lachie Neale has been high on my watch list for 2015 since late in the 2014 season. Here is what I prepared on him in Nov 2014.

It won't surprise Mike I mention Cunnington in there, as we both had an interest in him early in 2014. The change in the Ruck scoring has given me a slight doubt on Neale. One of his attractions to me was, that I read he was just about one of the best in the League in the last 6 to 8 weeks of the season, at getting first hands on the ball at stoppages. We have now learnt that scores one point less than it used to do, if the hitout is awarded as "being to advantage". That's probably not enough to stop me taking the value punt on him though. The news that Fyfe may be pushing Forward more this season is also a plus for Neale, as it might mean that they are planning for Neale to be at more stoppages this season. At the moment I have Neale and 2 Def value picks I will be punting on. There's usually little downside to punting on young Def value picks.

As to Maric, I won't be touching him. His Coach was quoted as saying (either after 2013, or before 2014) that his injury was chronic, and would need to be handled/managed as an going thing throughout his career. We saw that with him missing games early last season. He obviously came good near the end of the season, and can score well when he is fit. I'm just worried it is more when, not if, the problem will require more "management".

DAMN YOU ROWSUS! Your expect and awesome analysis always makes me want to pick players making it more complicated! All the key indicators do point to Neale going BANG this season and if the rumours of Rossy wanting Fyfe in the fwd line some more this only adds weight to the Pick Neale thought.

BTW...

Johannisen and Docherty are my 2 Def value picks at the moment. I thought I had a sneaky pick in Johannisen, until Jordan posted this a week or so ago in the Great Pre-Season Info thread. It is nearly impossible to have a sneaky pick that goes undiscussed these days, I guess.

I have done a fair bit of research on Johnannisen as well and he is in my team atm. If he can secure that running/rebounding HB role he will be a LOCK in my side. I will post the analysis here or in the Great Pre-Season info thread in the next few days. Once again your work is much appreciated

 

[siwel]

One more thing, do you have any information/opinion on Danger this season? His avg dropped from 112.9 (2013) to 105.5 (2014) also worth noting he averaged 118.7 in 2012. For much of last season he was heavily affected by his knee inj and I do think he presents value for a player who we know can avg 113-118.
He does have a new coach and is out of contract (biggest free agent or RFA of the year), These two factors could go either way and help or hinder him.

*My current midfield premiums are GAJ/Rocky, Pendles, Fyfe, JSelwood and Danger + rookies (and now maybe Neale)

 

[DeliciousJedi]

I wouldn't be having Johanissen in your team at this stage until you know how Biggs will fit in and how the Bulldogs line up. He could just end up as another "Atley".

Newnes is actually the one who most resembles Harwood in defence, right age, right amount of games. Curtly Hampton as well. Throwing a name out, I think Sutcliffe could spike, he was originally a midfielder, so every chance to improve.

Then you have guys with possible midfield time but have played a lot of games already so may not break out: Yarran, Broadbent, Atley himself.