Analysis Sam Dwyer

[Fluffywhitebirds]

Few things must've got lost in translation.

Don't think I've ever said I'm assuming the rookie would be a Rockliff/Broughton - my focus has been on how many points you will save with the Dwyer EMG loophole, so you can then make an informed assessment, as you say, on whether that is worth trading off against whatever your M10 rookie might make. My view is Dwyer might get you 0-120 points, and more likely closer to 0, from the floating donut. I'd take even a $100k profit rookie against that risk profile, but as you say, it's up to the individual. We may disagree on that.

I also focused my analysis on Sam Dwyer as a second floating donut, assuming you already have McBean, which I understood to be your suggestion. If you have McBean, he can deliver you the benefit of the captain loophole. You can't claim that value twice, hence the analysis on the incremental (EMG loophole) value of Dwyer.

 

[Impromptu]

Few things must've got lost in translation.

Don't think I've ever said I'm assuming the rookie would be a Rockliff/Broughton - my focus has been on how many points you will save with the Dwyer EMG loophole, so you can then make an informed assessment, as you say, on whether that is worth trading off against whatever your M10 rookie might make. My view is Dwyer might get you 0-120 points, and more likely closer to 0, from the floating donut. I'd take even a $100k profit rookie against that risk profile, but as you say, it's up to the individual. We may disagree on that.

I also focused my analysis on Sam Dwyer as a second floating donut, assuming you already have McBean, which I understood to be your suggestion. If you have McBean, he can deliver you the benefit of the captain loophole. You can't claim that value twice, hence the analysis on the incremental (EMG loophole) value of Dwyer.

All good mate. Healthy discussion.

If you value $100K profit over my worst case scenario of 0-120points then now I see where our views differ. TBH I would even give others $200K profit over the course of the year to have this structure. Also remember that my safety switch is simply trade out Dwyer and waste one trade.

Don't have a problem with your views, but we may have to agree to disagree here.

 

[Fluffywhitebirds]

Makes sense!

I'll be the first one rueing my post if round 3 rocks around and the Dwyer loophole gets you 60 points....

 

[IDIG]

Great discussion here but having used the emg and captain loophole in the BBL I will be going with Dwyer without a second thought. The upside is just too great in my opinion. It was a little exaggerated in the BBL due to the variance in scores (esp compared to SC) but after seeing how it can work and be taken advantage of, any doubt i did have is now gone. It can occasionally go wrong but knowing who was playing in the BBL was a nightmare, with the AFL we have a distinct advantage especially with late outs, subs as teams are named an hour before.

 

[siwel]

Good article Impromptu my only question is why not use your Rookie Ruck as the "Floating Donut"? ie Sam Rowe...? $115k DPP and prob will play more games than Sam Dwyer and it allows an extra cash cow in your mids.....

Why is Sam Dwyer the better option here? (obv it could b anyone else doesnt have to b Sam Rowe but someone that you are likely to pick is you disregarded the rolling lockout scenario)

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Good article Impromptu my only question is why not use your Rookie Ruck as the "Floating Donut"? ie Sam Rowe...? $115k DPP and prob will play more games than Sam Dwyer and it allows an extra cash cow in your mids.....

Why is Sam Dwyer the better option here? (obv it could b anyone else doesnt have to b Sam Rowe but someone that you are likely to pick is you disregarded the rolling lockout scenario)

Due to the lack of quality forward rookies and Dwyer's DPP MID/FOR he an fill F8 and be used as the floating donut for the captaincy loophole and emergency loophole.

 

[siwel]

Due to the lack of quality forward rookies and Dwyer's DPP MID/FOR he an fill F8 and be used as the floating donut for the captaincy loophole and emergency loophole.

Staker, Macaffer, T Lee, Kerridge (could be same as Dwyer), T Menzel (bit more $ and if he gets a game)

I understand the concept but you want to make cash early on imo to start to get prems in your side asap

 

[siwel]

Name - Sam Dwyer (COL)
Position - MID / FWD
Price - $96,200
Average - N/A
Draw - Not relevant

I don't know much about Sam Dwyer, but right now he is a lock for me.

No, I haven't lost my mind. No, it's not a typographical error. And No, I'm not trying to be funny and waste your time; ROFL. I don't expect Dwyer to play any games for Collingwood in 2013, but why is Dwyer a lock for me in SuperCoach 2013?

I think by now you may have guessed why Dwyer is a lock in my SuperCoach team in 2013.

If you are still unsure about this riddle, then you need to read the Floating Donut article. If you have already read the article, a refresher won't hurt

In short, the Floating Donut strategy includes the selection of a player who will not or is very unlikely to play in 2013, but is used for the Captain Loophole or Emergency Loophole.

For me, Sam Dwyer is the perfect candidate to be the Floating Donut!

REASONS FOR SAM DWYER

• Round 1-3 - Ablett (VC), Dwyer (EMG), Swan/Pendles (C)
• Rounds 4 - Selwood/JPK(VC), Dwyer (EMG), Swan/Pendles (C) (EDITED - Can't be Buddy(VC)! Similar game time!)
• Rounds 5-6 - Not Applicable as Collingwood play first game of round
• Rounds 7 - Watson/Cotchin/Cox(VC), Dwyer (EMG), Swan/Pendles (C)
• Round 8 - Ablett (VC), Dwyer (EMG), Swan/Pendles (C)
• Rounds 9-10 - Not Applicable as Collingwood play first game of round
• Round 11-12 - Ablett (VC), Dwyer (EMG), Swan/Pendles (C)

REASONS AGAINST SAM DWYER


Now the trick is to have another Floating Donut

Verdict: LOCKED(1)

Wouldn't you need Dwyer on the field in all rounds to take adv of Captain Loophole as you cant put C on benched or emg players...?

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Staker, Macaffer, T Lee, Kerridge (could be same as Dwyer), T Menzel (bit more $ and if he gets a game)

I understand the concept but you want to make cash early on imo to start to get prems in your side asap

Yes I agree and thats why I am still very undecided to which path I will take because I will be wanting to take advantage of the loopholes.
The things I need to ask myself, will I have at least one player for all rounds of the season that won't be playing? Can I be sure of it? and Does the fact I don't know who is my floating donut from week to week worry me that some weeks my captain advantage might not be used to full effect because of the fixture?

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Wouldn't you need Dwyer on the field in all rounds to take adv of Captain Loophole as you cant put C on benched or emg players...?

Yes, then you emergency from either MID/FOR comes on and takes his place in the scoring line-up.

 

[siwel]

I just think u could use one of your other rookies, most likely Ruc as the capt loophole and use the free spot for a rookie elsewhere most likely Fwd. WHy burn a player when you have Captain Loophole options already?

 

[mpollock]

In reality we will all have a couple of players missing each week that can be used as floating donuts. If you pick most the "standard" rookies (pre-NAB) like Colquhoun (m/b), B.Goodes (m/b), *Staker (f/b), Kerridge (m/f), Terlich (m/b), Rowe (r/f), McBean (r/f) etc ... then do we really expect them to all play each week ...

I mention these rookies in particular as they are DPP and hence more relevant to the "floating donut" perhaps then Viney, Crouch etc

* rookie priced

 

[siwel]

In reality we will all have a couple of players missing each week that can be used as floating donuts. If you pick most the "standard" rookies (pre-NAB) like Colquhoun (m/b), B.Goodes (m/b), *Staker (f/b), Kerridge (m/f), Terlich (m/b), Rowe (r/f), McBean (r/f) etc ... then do we really expect them to all play each week ...

I mention these rookies in particular as they are DPP and hence more relevant to the "floating donut" perhaps then Viney, Crouch etc

* rookie priced

thats exactly what my point/thinking is why burn up a player when in reality u will never have a full team each week and if you are lucky enough too it might only be once or twice in the year

 

[BC]

Not gonna bother chances are a rookie will be dropped here and there therefore allowing the loophole and chances are he'll have dpp

 

[Impromptu]

Great comments everyone.

I'll prepare an article about this from a different angle.

 

[IDIG]

Staker, Macaffer, T Lee, Kerridge (could be same as Dwyer), T Menzel (bit more $ and if he gets a game)

I understand the concept but you want to make cash early on imo to start to get prems in your side asap

Apart from Lee i would say all the others you have listed there may have a question mark over their JS..including Staker who may not be up and running round 1.

 

[johno686]

Apart from Lee i would say all the others you have listed there may have a question mark over their JS..including Staker who may not be up and running round 1.

And with lee im not sure you see him at the start of season.

 

[Loboda1963]

Quote form AFL Prospectus:
Sam Dwyer (rookie) "Another great pick up by the Magpies that can make an impact straight away if called upon".
Have to monitor any Collingwood rookie elevations during the season!! LOL

 

[Philzsay]

I must admit I am starting to think more about having a second floating donut besides from McBean, although it won't necessarily be Dwyer. Having a closer look at Richmond draw in the first 10 weeks to their bye they play on Sunday twice and Monday once. Thus there are 7 rounds where the use of the loophole would be limited should one have a full deck playing otherwise.

The one thing I have decided with the loophole is I want to leave plenty of 'deciding and changing time' for these decisions. I don't want to be making a rushed decision Saturday arvo and the other relevant person is playing twilight or a night game (particuarly if I am going to or from one of these games). What happens if my internet connection goes down in that short period!!!!!

 

[dlanod]

Apart from Lee i would say all the others you have listed there may have a question mark over their JS..including Staker who may not be up and running round 1.

Staker's in full training and went to Arizona with the team before Christmas. He should be fine fitness-wise, it'll be down to the coaching staff.