Three quick points for you Chels:
- Given that initial SC prices are set based on last year's average, what we should generally all be looking for is players who can outperform last year's average. Most teams that were poor in 2014 will likely remain so - so if there's a significant disadvantage to playing in a weak team, it should be priced in to a large degree. If you decide that a player's team is important, perhaps focus on the teams you think will lift their ladder position, rather than those you think will simply end up in a high position. Similarly in relation to spread - perhaps the question should be whether/how the spread changes.
- The draw is an obvious issue to consider - especially as this changes from year to year, and therefore is less likely to be priced in.
- See the link below. For me, the lesson is that if you are looking for someone to score 120+ - noting that you shouldn't expect that from more than about two or three players - you should very likely pick Ablett, and then focus on your expected top four teams. I don't know that this would necessarily hold with a lower cutoff, say 110, but for M1, M2, etc, the top ranked teams should be your second port of call after Ablett.
http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/1063-Questions-For-Rowsus/page148