Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[GrainFedBeef]

Happy to help, Btj.

I deleted my first response, as it is early in the morning here, and I was talking about D Swallow, and not A Swallow.

I think A Swallow will be a good pick this season, but will probably come up just short of the 110 area. I'm not precluding the possibility he could make it 110 though. I like that he and Goldstein featured high on the best "Ruck hitout to own player" list, off a limited number of games. I also like his Contested Possession rate.

Unless you can do some amazing cash generating, or settle for some slightly dodgy coverage in either your F5-7 and/or your D5-7 areas, I would be surprised if you can carry a $500k player through to sit at M9 late in the season, especially one that may be scoring at 110. The only other way you can achieve this, is if one your cheap recruits turns into a real find late in the season, like Miles last year, but even then it is hard to picture a 110 player sitting at M9.

Hi Rowsus - there has been comments by Champion Data that with ruck point changes this season, players receiving the ball from a hit out to advantage will receive less points for that possession (no impact on disposal points).

Any idea how much the points may impact players such as Andrew Swallow or Nat Fyfe who are in the top ruck/mid combo's. Is it something not to worry about? thanks.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus - there has been comments by Champion Data that with ruck point changes this season, players receiving the ball from a hit out to advantage will receive less points for that possession (no impact on disposal points).

Any idea how much the points may impact players such as Andrew Swallow or Nat Fyfe who are in the top ruck/mid combo's. Is it something not to worry about? thanks.

I think it may impact them by around 5/game. Against that, both have room for improvement in other areas, particularly Swallow.

 

[Prochard]

I think they'll all be in that 100-108/game area, and maybe the order of the highest to lowest scorer might be:
Greene, Griffen, Swallow, Cotchin, Greenwood. but I don't think there will be much between them, so the cheaper they are, the better pick they represent.

Do you see Greenwood's 77. something % TOG as a major room of improvement as he takes up a huge proportion of Collingwood's midfield time. How much does the 6-7% in TOG increase assist his score?

 

[jaca]

Hi Rowsus, a fair portion of my team appears to be in the top 50. Is this just a reflection of sensible selections and the way it should be, or should I move towards more PODs?

 

[Rowsus]

Do you see Greenwood's 77. something % TOG as a major room of improvement as he takes up a huge proportion of Collingwood's midfield time. How much does the 6-7% in TOG increase assist his score?

To be honest, I would be surprised if he gets it to much over 80-81%, as to how much improvement that equals, it really depends more on the role he is filling, now he's at a new Club. It's a bit more of wait and see.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, a fair portion of my team appears to be in the top 50. Is this just a reflection of sensible selections and the way it should be, or should I move towards more PODs?

Hi jaca, I wouldn't let that concern you at all! Any changes you made to bring in a POD, would be bringing in a POD for the wrong reason, and is more likely to backfire, than be something you're happy about.

 

[Hondo]

Even with a 50 strong shortlist your team could still be say 5-10 different from others and often that's all it takes

 

[MrMurdoch]

Hey Rowsus just wondering if you've got any statistics or insight on players who have made the jump from a premium (110ppg~) to a super mega premium (130ppg~) and how they've gone the next season? On this note do you see anything that may result in Rockli*** scores dropping by a significant amount this season?

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus just wondering if you've got any statistics or insight on players who have made the jump from a premium (110ppg~) to a super mega premium (130ppg~) and how they've gone the next season? On this note do you see anything that may result in Rockli*** scores dropping by a significant amount this season?

Not many have actually cracked the 130 barrier, here is every one of them sorted by age.

They all failed to follow it up, with the exception of Ablett. I'm not saying I think Rockliff will go 130 again this season, but given he is in the 2 or 3 highest SC scorers after 100 AFL games played (or is he the highest?), I think he can back it up with a 120+ season, and be a useful tool in the Captains loophole.

 

[bianchije]

his tackles jumped around 4 (9.1)per game compared to last 3 seasons- 16ppg bump. scores jumped with redden out last season (although proven he can score with redden in the past), addition of beams is an unknown quantity.
in his favour, hes had a completely issue free preseason unlike abblett, pendles and fyfe.

 

[chels]

g'day Rowsus, with the (alleged?) crack down by umps on holding the ball I am thinking that some inside mids and / or high tackle count players may get a boost from frees for. If you agree is there a statistical way to rank who would have been the major recipients in the previous season(s)? In parallel, any thoughts on who might have got hit with more frees against - again from the previous season(s).

If there is no statistical basis for an opinion then your intuition would be highly valued.

 

[Rowsus]

g'day Rowsus, with the (alleged?) crack down by umps on holding the ball I am thinking that some inside mids and / or high tackle count players may get a boost from frees for. If you agree is there a statistical way to rank who would have been the major recipients in the previous season(s)? In parallel, any thoughts on who might have got hit with more frees against - again from the previous season(s).

If there is no statistical basis for an opinion then your intuition would be highly valued.

G'day chels,
I tend to look at changes like this as a swings and roundabouts type situation.
After 1 game of watching the changes, I think we will see between 2 and 6 extra free kicks awarded per game from the change. One would think that would favour the players with high tackle counts, but the table below might sway your opinion. I'm pretty sure a tackle is only counted if it: creates a stoppage, a free for, or a direct turnover. I'm prepared for anyone to correct me on that. You would think the leading tacklers would feature somewhere in the leading "Frees For" column, but it's exactly the opposite, they feature more in the "Frees Against" column.
As with so many statistical things in this (AFL) game, the stats you'd love to know just aren't readily available. In this case, you'd love to know the break up off free kicks for/against, as in what they were paid for regarding each individual player. We know Selwood gets a lot of free kicks for, for being tackled high, but that's about it. Without that break up, it's all just postulation.
In this table we have the 20 highest Tacklers (per game), and 20 highest Frees For and Frees Against (once again per game).

So looking at Rockliff, we see he was laid 9.06 tackles per game last season, BUT, he fails to feature anywhere in the top "Frees For", which cuts out at 1.24 per game, so less than around 10% of his tackles resulted in him getting awarded a Free Kick! He does appear pretty high up in the "Frees Against" column though. It's interesting, he is probably laying at least 5 to 8 tackles per game, that aren't awarded as tackles because the person he tackles gets a legal disposal in, and we can guess from his "Frees Against" that he might be laying as many as 2 or 3 "illegal" tackles in some games. So from all that, in some games he might applying as many as 20 tackles, with on average less than one of them being judged worthy of a Free Kick!
I found it surprising that 7 of the top 20 Tacklers were in the top 20 Frees Against column, but only 5 of them in the Frees For column. It might be inbalances like this, where it is perceivable to say tacklers were getting penalised more than they are getting rewarded, that caused the new interpretation. It was certainly noticeable last year that players were given more leeway when tackled. What used to be an automatic Free Kick was leading to a stoppage.
All in all, from a SC point of view, I think the difference is too small to factor in, but it might help those with high tackle counts, AND good tackling methods get an extra 8 to 10 free kicks for the season, which is a boost of between 1 and 2 SC points/game.

 

[chels]

Many thanks Rowsus for this intriguing reply. So often, in my experience anyway, once the data is analysed the outcome is counter-intuitive. Interpretation then becomes really interesting. I wonder if "holding the ball" frees (if they end up as a significant factor) will occur at stoppages (after a hit out not to advantage) rather than tackles. That calls for a bit more watching before I form a hypothesis and seek your help in its testing.

 

[Philzsay]

All in all, from a SC point of view, I think the difference is too small to factor in, but it might help those with high tackle counts, AND good tackling methods get an extra 8 to 10 free kicks for the season, which is a boost of between 1 and 2 SC points/game.

Just to chime in, I think that there is just so much information unknown that it is really difficult to determine how players will be affected, and in all likelihood the difference is likely to be marginal.

For example we have no figures on the type of tackles each player does. I reckon the tighter interpruptions will affect tackles that are in the run of play more than tackles that are in the middle of scrums for the lack of better words.

Also I get the feeling this will be one of those new interpretations where the umps are hot on it for the first week or two and then will ease up so much that its hardly noticeable.

 

[PC]

Rowsus, a question for you.

What are your thoughts on Langdon?
Priced at $382k. 2014 season avg of 71, and a total 1349 points from 19 games.

Pros - Possibly is set to do kick in duties. Easily in the best 22 at the Pies. Hit the magic 100 mark 3 times last year.
Cons - Second year player. Can he increase his avg enough to make him a top 10 backline player? Young, in a young inexperienced backline. Pies on the slide. Midpricer.

If he could get to 85 by the end of the year, then his start price means he might be a worthwhile pick. Lots of question marks of course!

 

[freowho]

Hej Rowsus.

Wondering what your thoughts are on pre season stats for rookies. I was thinking because of the small amount of data and the lack of intensity during NAB cup games that Dream Team points might be of more value than Supercoach points. I was also thinking of weighting the points towards the last game and maybe even ignoring the first game due to the amount of rookies playing.

Tak

 

[OzRulesFootball]

Probably time on ground percentage every bit as important as any actual fantasy scores at this point in time.
Just looking at Hawks for last night for example.

Also their role played.
Example Grimley TOG 91%, Ceglar 75% and McEvoy 73%
I did not see any of it so wonder where they actually played too, considering all three are ruck options.

#Player AFL SC TOG%
37 Jed Anderson 97 110 82
19 Jack Gunston 95 107 88
29 Will Langford 89 97 81
5 Sam Mitchell 83 124 86
26 Liam Shiels 82 87 87
8 Taylor Duryea 79 118 97
32 Jonathan Simpkin 66 51 88
7 Ben McEvoy 65 78 73
42 Teia Miles 56 59 67
39 Alex Woodward 53 73 73
40 Billy Hartung 52 55 88
24 Ben Stratton 51 53 84
22 Luke Breust 45 65 85
38 Dallas Willsmore 40 51 79
31 Angus Litherland 39 47 73
18 Jonathon Ceglar 38 51 75
44 Jared Hardisty 36 51 72
35 Sam Grimley 34 56 91
41 Daniel Howe 33 49 65
12 James Frawley 31 42 91
21 James Sicily 30 52 83
45 J. Miller-Lewis 29 35 60
43 Marc Pittonet 10 7 23
30 Kaiden Brand 0 0 5

 

[Bob Loblaw]

I think it may impact them by around 5/game. Against that, both have room for improvement in other areas, particularly Swallow.

Jeeeeez 5 points. Add that into the reduced clutch multiplier that's about -7ppg.
What's yours statistical reasoning behind 5ppg or is it gut instinct. Are there statistics available to the public on number of hitout gathers?

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus, a question for you.

What are your thoughts on Langdon?
Priced at $382k. 2014 season avg of 71, and a total 1349 points from 19 games.

Pros - Possibly is set to do kick in duties. Easily in the best 22 at the Pies. Hit the magic 100 mark 3 times last year.
Cons - Second year player. Can he increase his avg enough to make him a top 10 backline player? Young, in a young inexperienced backline. Pies on the slide. Midpricer.

If he could get to 85 by the end of the year, then his start price means he might be a worthwhile pick. Lots of question marks of course!

I think he is too risky. I'm pretty sure he won't get vested too often, but I'm not confident he'll make 85, and I'm also not confident those that say 85 will be good enough for D5/6 this year are right. If he makes 85, but it turns out 85 is not good enough for D6, then he is not a good pick.

 

[Rowsus]

Hej Rowsus.

Wondering what your thoughts are on pre season stats for rookies. I was thinking because of the small amount of data and the lack of intensity during NAB cup games that Dream Team points might be of more value than Supercoach points. I was also thinking of weighting the points towards the last game and maybe even ignoring the first game due to the amount of rookies playing.

Tak

Hej freowho, hvordan går det?
While RDT points might give a slightly better pointer than SC points in the early games, I am still concerned about the lack of pressure, and change of roles in the early games. Weighting the later games seems like a good idea, as teams will play closer to their intended line ups, roles and intensity in the later games. I wouldn't ignore the early games, just down play their importance a bit.
Held og lykke.