Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[MrMurdoch]

Hi Rowsus

I reallllllly like Mitch Wallis prospects as a mid price mid with Libba gone for the season, but I want to stay strict to my rule of going Guns and Rookies in the midfield. I've got Bontempelli in the forwards somewhat as a compromise but still very unsure of what to do. What are your thoughts on Wallis and Bontempelli as picks in their respective positions?

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

A noob question, how many player in the same team should you select? Is there a set number of maximum 3 or 4? Saints do have a number of good option to select or even North. Cheers

Hi yama,
in theory there is no limit, as long as you are keeping an eye on a bit of balance in regards to the byes. Rookies too don't count as much, as you will probably trade most of them before or during the byes.
In 2012 Richmond had:
Def: 1st agg pts Deledio, 8th agg pts Rance, 14th agg pts Houli
Mid: 4th agg pts Cotchin, 5th agg pts Tuck
Ruck: 2nd agg pts Maric
Fwd: 14th agg pts Riewoldt J
They also had Morris and Ellis as Rookies that season. It's conceivable you could have started with all 9 of those players, and still had a decent season.
Now having shown you that, unless you have a really good reason to, I wouldn't start more than 4 or 5 Keepers from the one team, and you could still have 2 or 3 of their Rookies, if they were the right Rookies to have.
Just one last word of warning, don't get carried away with too many Saints players. Chances are they will only be carving up around 1550 points, of the total 3300 points, each week. That'll make it hard for too many Midpricers and Keepers to be good picks, so tread carefully.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

A question about key position rookies. Hogan seems to be all the rage but I am not convinced. Should we be comparing him to what other high draft forwards Boyd (43), Cameron (62) and Patton (45) did in their first season? Not sure I see him averaging over 60 in a team that will struggle to have forward 50 entries. I have 3 forward rookies in my team (2 on bench) and currently rate them higher in terms of SC value than Hogan. Why is he the rookie everyone seems to want in their forward set up?

Dont want to jump in front of Rowsus but the main difference with Hogan is that this is his 3rd year on the list.

The first season he played a full year of VFL and I am fairly certain he won a B&F (stand to be corrected on that) with second year missed through injury (after he completed most of the pre season). So it is hard to compare him with other key forwards in first years. Probably better lining him up with 2nd or 3rd year key forwards

Hey vdellu,
you can mark most of his popularity down to media hype. Melbourne need some "good news", and a ripping, tall, goal-kicking, VFL team B&F winning, out for a full season and kept us waiting type player, fits the bill. I'm with you. I'm worried about how much supply he will get from a team that will probably struggle to average 10-12 goals/week. Tall Fwd's struggle in most teams, particularly teams with low goal scoring ability. Tall fwd Rookies even more so, though as Mudflap points out, he's not an out and out Rookie, but he is still a Rookie! I have no doubt he will look good in some games, and post a good score or two, but I think he will post the odd price-ruining 40 or 50 as well. As such, he's currently not in my team, even though I concede, if the timing is right, he could make $200k profit. He's not a bad prospect, I just don't see him as a must have. Which means I will probably end up trading him in as a corrective trade, leading into round 3!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Could a Ablett + 7 rookie mid (VB Newton Anderson Boekhurst Vandenberg Freeman Steele) work?
Would have Lambert and Saad on bench just incase of rookies not getting a game
Def can bring 2 players to mid if needed and fwds could bring 5 up if needed.

Cheers mate its very handy and insightful to have you hear to run all my ideas past.
Hope im not being to much of a pain asking so many questions lately.

Thanks

Hi Btj,
there's no limit to the number of genuine questions you can ask here, so feel free to ask away!
There's no doubt a structure like that can succeed, as IDIG pointed out in the Rate My Team thread, Jay played an all Rookie Mid in 2011, and did very well. The game has changed since then, and my only proviso in going Ablett + 7 is, who becomes your Captains Loophole back up? If Ablett only features as the better Captain choice 50-60% of the time, it's tough to find a back up in the Fwd or Ruck line. It nearly forces you to role the dice on your VC before Ablett plays each week, then have Ablett as your Captain. Personally, I like the idea of seeing Ablett's score as a VC, then deciding if I need to role the dice on who my C will be. The Coaches that perma Captain Ablett are left to take his odd disappointing score, if you see his score first, you know whether you need to roll the dice. Much better in my opinion. You can say you can still VC Ablett, but I'd much rather have a Pendlebury/Rockliff/Selwood type to follow after Ablett's VC, than a Ruck or a Fwd.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

I reallllllly like Mitch Wallis prospects as a mid price mid with Libba gone for the season, but I want to stay strict to my rule of going Guns and Rookies in the midfield. I've got Bontempelli in the forwards somewhat as a compromise but still very unsure of what to do. What are your thoughts on Wallis and Bontempelli as picks in their respective positions?

Hi MrM,
Wallis is an interesting one, as he is definitely a prospect for the in and under role left vacant by Libba. He seems to have been around longer than he has, but he has only played 54 games, coming into his 5th season, and will be 22.5 years old when the season starts. All pretty good break out territory stuff. I can't see him reacing Keeper level, but I've been surprised before. To be a useful Stepping stone type player, you have to believe he can average more than 90, and more likely in the 95+ area. This will allow his price to rise $100-$130k, while producing useful points, and facilitate an easier upgrade. It of course falls outside of GnR strategy zone, and should still be considered very risky, unless you are supremely confident. Keep in mind, you are comparing him to say $140k Rookie, that needs to average around 65/game to make $180k profit, and leave you $200k for upgrading elsewhere, with the price difference between Wallis and the Rookie. That $200k should bring about a 35-40/game increase in scoring, but only needs to produce 30/game for you still to be slightly ahead on both dollars and points.
I'm not as excited and as gunho about the Bont as a lot of people here. Yes, he an exciting AFL prospect, but he has played 1 season of 16 games, and is coming into his 2nd season. At $422k there is no wiggle room. We are setting high hopes on our Fwd's this season, and some are even saying F6 should be a 100/game player (some, but not me!). There's not many players that crack 100 in their 2nd season, but even less that were 192cm or taller. You probably need him to average 95 to be considered a success, and hold down F6. I'm just not confident enough he can do it. He's not for me.

 

[Prochard]

If I think Greenwood can average 108 at 500k, Steevns at 105 and Griffen at 110, which one of them is the best option?

 

[Drew]

If I think Greenwood can average 108 at 500k, Steevns at 105 and Griffen at 110, which one of them is the best option?

What average do you rate as keeper status? If you're spending over $500k at the start i'd be aiming for a keeper otherwise you're locking in a trade as well at some point. For me i'd say 110+ is minimum for a mid keeper, so from the examples you've listed that'd be Griffen (if you believe he can hit 110).

 

[Rowsus]

If I think Greenwood can average 108 at 500k, Steevns at 105 and Griffen at 110, which one of them is the best option?

What average do you rate as keeper status? If you're spending over $500k at the start i'd be aiming for a keeper otherwise you're locking in a trade as well at some point. For me i'd say 110+ is minimum for a mid keeper, so from the examples you've listed that'd be Griffen (if you believe he can hit 110).

Griffen - 110 - $530,700
Greenwood - 108 - $506,100
Steven - 105 - $455,900

It would seem that Griffen has Greenwood covered, under your assessment. It's unlikely that the $24,600 loose change will make a significant change to your other selections. Possible, but unlikely. Griffen also has the advantage of the Rnd 13 bye, which really gets him home over Greenwood, and gives him a tick over Steven as well, as they both have the "crowded" Rnd 12 bye. So now it comes down to Griffen Vs Steven. The answer comes down to 2 things/questions:
Are you happy to carry Steven through the season as an M8 (maybe if disaster strikes M7), if he averages 105?
Can you make a significant improvement somewhere with the $74,800 loose change Steven gives you over Griffen?
Keeping in mind, there is obviously a margin for error in your expectations, which favours Griffen. If they both come up 5 short of your expectations, Griffen can fill a F7/8 role, where as Steven will just be leaking points to the better teams.
I would think the answer is this:
Does using the $74,800 to upgrade a player somewhere else, give you more confidence in that new player succeeding over the old player you had, than you have confidence in Griffen succeeding over Steven? It might for example upgrade a slightly risky Midpriced Def to a more "stable" Premium option in that line. In simple terms go with the combination you have more faith in:
Griffen + lower priced selection
Steven + higher priced selection.
If you can't improve your confidence with the loose change, go Griffen.

 

[ggash]

Hi Rowsus

I am interested in what you think of Lachie Neale. Over his last three games last season, he had 30+ touches and 142, 103, and 98 SC. Was there any change in his %TOG in those games, as I see he only averaged 83 mins on the ground per game last year? Also av. 27.6 disposlas per 100 mins in 2014, so If he can get those minutes up surely he becomes a 105+ player. 127 and 153 SC in NAB games also.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

I am interested in what you think of Lachie Neale. Over his last three games last season, he had 30+ touches and 142, 103, and 98 SC. Was there any change in his %TOG in those games, as I see he only averaged 83 mins on the ground per game last year? Also av. 27.6 disposlas per 100 mins in 2014, so If he can get those minutes up surely he becomes a 105+ player. 127 and 153 SC in NAB games also.

Hi gg, welcome aboard.
He was my value lock for 2015 as far back as September last year. He lead the League for first hands on the ball at stoppages in the latter part of last season, and can put together some good SC scores. I went off him, and actually took him out of my team a few weeks ago. After chatting with some Freo people I discovered his pre-season running numbers were actually down on last season, I also came to the opinion his TOG% wasn't likely to dramatically improve (he's just one of those Cunnington type players that will rarely go over 75%TOG), and I was also worried about the new Ruck rules robbing him a little bit.
Even though Barlow didn't play today (neither did Sandi, and the big bloke can only help Neale!), I'm back on Neale, and feeling like his downside is something in the 100-105 area, and his upside is 110-112. I've just dropped Swan out of my team, and put Neale back in at M5.

 

[Prochard]

Would you consider Treloar last year who averaged 108 and started at 480k a success? Im really warming to the idea of starting one of Greenwood(I think is top 15 material)/Stevens and upgrade him to Rockliff round 12, might only cost 80-100k

 

[Manikato1]

Hi Rowsus

Interested in any info on Dean Towers from the Swans. Last 2 NAB games produced 70pts and 90pts.

Longmire quoted on AFLwebsite in Feb

"We've got 30-odd players who have played senior football on our list and we know players like Jake Lloyd, Harry Cunningham and Dean Towers can come through and play pretty big roles.

Some of the other available Fwd rookies are cheaper but he is getting my interest. Any Swans supporters with any info on Towers?

 

[Rowsus]

Would you consider Treloar last year who averaged 108 and started at 480k a success? Im really warming to the idea of starting one of Greenwood(I think is top 15 material)/Stevens and upgrade him to Rockliff round 12, might only cost 80-100k

The simple answer is yes.
The more complicated answer is.....
Mid season he was averaging 115, and exceeding the expectations of those that had him, and probably by at least 10/game. When a player is exceeding a reasonable expectation by so much, should you consider trading him out?
Rnd 13 you could have straight swapped him to Selwood (who was actualy $3k less in price!). Selwood scored at 126 from there, and Treloar 99!
Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but it shows you that we should always be on the look out for an overperforming, overpriced commodity. If you had said to the people that took Treloar in round 1, that you can straight swap to Selwood mid-season, they'd be wrapt. But I'm betting come the time, not many would have the guts to do it.
You might possibly be facing a similar dilemma. If Greenwood is averaging 110-112 in Rnd 12, will you have the guts to chop him? It's a tough call, but it can work!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Interested in any info on Dean Towers from the Swans. Last 2 NAB games produced 70pts and 90pts.

Longmire quoted on AFLwebsite in Feb



Some of the other available Fwd rookies are cheaper but he is getting my interest. Any Swans supporters with any info on Towers?

Hi Man,
Towers is 24, with only 6 games under his belt, after being drafted as pretty much a mature age recruit in 2012. You would think they will give him a go at some stage this season, or just let him go.
It's really tough picking Syd, Haw and Freo Rookies with any confidence, as they always seem to have shakey JS. As you suggested, it might be better if a Sydney supporter with some knowledge enlightened us. I just know I never take Rookies from those 3 teams, unless there is a real positive "vibe" to them.

 

[jarrad_]

not sure if it has been asked yet or not

i have seen a few people starting with mumford do you think it would be a good idea

 

[PowerBrokers]

Hey Rowsus,

I'm continually in awe of not only your sheer amount of knowledge, but also your dedication to this site, and answering EVERY question. You're a great guy.


To my question though...what do you think of Bachar Houli?
Price: $447,400
Ceiling: 149 in 2011, (125 last year)
Avg:
2014 - 83.2
2013 - 91.6
2012 - 83.1
2011- 89.2

He is currently priced as an 83.2 defender, but has the history to go to 90. I think coming into his peak (26), his form in the NAB cup (115), Richmond only getting better with their talented side, and being used a rebound defender, he will do well this year.
Only missed 2 games in the last 4 seasons too.

What do you think Rowsus? Not enough value?

 

[rocknroll]

whats the prognosis on S.Lemmens he looked alright last year

 

[chels]

Apologies in advance for asking the obvious question Rowsus - who has suffered most from the Crowley tag? I further wonder if any other Freo player will be as effective in the "Crowley role?"

 

[_Slip_]

Hi Rowsus

I hope you are well. Just a quick question. Is there anywhere I can find a breakdown by player and round that shows:

a) if they were tagged
b) % TOG they were tagged

Cheers Slip

 

[Brettthejett]

could this year be the year of the young guns?

Trelore, Prestia, Wines, Crouch all go to 115ish av ppg?