Analysis Nick Dal Santo

Impromptu · 10 Feb 2013

Nick Dal Santo of St Kilda has been a proven SuperCoach elite midfielder over the years, however had a poor SuperCoach 2012. With SuperCoach allowing 8 starting midfielders in 2013, is there a spot for Dal Santo in your SuperCoach side?

Name - Nick Dal Santo (STK)
Position - MID
Price - $544,800
Average - 101.8(22), 119.4(22), 112.5(21), 115.7(21), 101.8(22), 117.2(22), 117.2(22)
Draw - GCS, RIC, GWS, ESS, SYD, COL, CAR, ADE, WBD, NTH, WCE, BYE, MEL

Nick Dal Santo has been in and out of my SuperCoach team a lot in the last week or so. Looking at Dal Santo's SuperCoach average in the last 7 years per above, Dal Santo is very enticing and could be a great bargain midfielder in SuperCoach 2013, or on the other hand a Fool's Gold.

REASONS FOR NICK DAL SANTO

Besides the usual suspects, Dal Santo would be one of the most consistent SuperCoach performers over a very long period of time. Dal Santo is also very durable and has played 21 or 22 games each year for the last 7 years.

Dal Santo who had a poor year in 2012 is arguably underpriced, if he can get back to his consistent 115+ SuperCoach average.

Dal Santo also has a decent first three games in 2013 against Gold Coast, Richmond and Greater West Sydney and could average 130+ in his first 3 games. While I am aware, that for premiums we should look at the overall draw and full year result, I don't think hurts to have a few softer games to get the average up at the start of the year. Also, arguably in the worst case scenario Dal Santo could be a quick Pinch Hitter, however 3-4 games is probably too little.

I think if the SuperCoach midfield structure remained the same, ie 8 midfielders (6/2) then Dal Santo would be a clear No. However, with the changes in the SuperCoach midfield structure to 10 midfielders (8/2), Dal Santo could quietly sneak in as a top 8 Midfielder. Based on Dal Santo's price, even a top 10-top 12 finish could be acceptable.

REASONS AGAINST DAL SANTO

I think the important question is whether Dal Santo has past his use by date as a premium midfielder, noting an average of 100 for a midfielder is not a good result. The second and most concerning thing is whether Dal Santo can handle a hard tag.

Throughout his career, Dal Santo has been tagged and possibly the reason why Dal Santo usually gets a price drop in SuperCoach sometime during the year. However, I think last year Dal Santo's inability to handle a tag was highlighted in the Fremantle game against his old coach, Ross Lyon. Even, Scott Watters the St Kilda Coach Tried to Fire Up Dal Santo (refer to article). Now I know it's old news that Dal Santo gets tagged and in some weeks he beats the tag and other weeks he doesn't. However, I think sometimes the tagging issue can be hidden in the backround, if Dal Santo gets a hard tag and scores bad, then the following week he scores massive as he is not tagged, then the week after Dal Santo scores bad with a hard tag. However, I read that Ross Lyon openedly said that Dal Santo is the most dangerous player at St Kilda (with another St Kilda player) and therefore Fremantle will be tagging him.

I am not sure if it's just my imagination, but I have a feeling St Kilda will try to work out a way to help Dal Santo. It wouldn't make sense for Scott Watters to just simply let Dal Santo get tagged out of games, when his predecessor, has openly stated that Dal Santo is the most dangerous player at St Kilda. I think the summer break will give St Kilda some time to work on this tagging issue.

I don't think Goddard joining Essendon will have any impact on Dal Santo and it's a case of whether Dal Santo can handle a tag.

Note my comments about Dal Santo and the tag is just my gut feeling, nothing more and nothing less. I'm really starting to warming up to selecting Dal Santo in my initial team, but for me it's between Murphy versus Dal Santo.

Verdict: WATCH(3)

Rowsus, as usual provided a great analysis quoted from the thread: How To Pick My Team (With an Analysis of the Last 3 SuperCoach Winners

Rowsus said:

Hairy · 10 Feb 2013

Impromptu said:

No you're right he cant handle the tag, but without Goddard... who else will they tag? Lenny is always at the bottom of the pack.

Impromptu · 10 Feb 2013

Hairy said:

Devil's advocate here, but if Dal Santo has been tagged all his life and averaged 115 but now priced at 101.8, then wouldn't he be underpriced? I would not actively recommend Dal Santo, but it's just a gut feeling, which I might take a risk with the 10 midfielders (8/2).

Hondo · 10 Feb 2013

I could be wrong but I feel he could be a 'brand name' pick. I think the best SC midfield picks in a given year come from the top teams Gaz excepted. To what extent are Dal Santo's scores correlated with St Kilda being a top side? We only really have last year to support that theory so I accept it could be wrong to assume that he dropped off as his team dropped off.

Impromptu · 10 Feb 2013

Hondo said:

Don't worry mate, I could be wrong too

and it could be a Brand Name error on my behalf too.

Will be happy to trade Dal Santo out Round 5 with my tail between my legs, if I'm proven wrong. Remember, the other time Dal Santo averaged 101.8 and if I recall correctly got dropped to the Magoos, he bounced back to average 115 the year later.

However, you do raise a good point on the success of Dal Santo could be correlated to St Kilda's success.

EDIT - Thanks to whoever picked 'Likely' in the Poll

Courtesans · 10 Feb 2013

Thanks Jay, I do have a liking for him. A little while ago Rowsus wrote a very good article about Dal Santo, damned if I can find it to display here. Hope you or someone else can, is terrific.

Impromptu · 10 Feb 2013

Courtesans said:

I was trying to find Rowsus article too, but couldn't find it either. I was looking for it in the Midfield Discussion thread (10 pages LOL), but doesn't appear to be there. If someone finds it can they direct me to where it is and I'll quote it in my article.

IDIG · 10 Feb 2013

Watch - if i go safe over the rest of the field with a 5 prem mid set up
Likely - if i go 6/7 mid set up n safe
Unlikely - if i have a few marginal unknown premiums

I think he definitely has it in him to become a superpremium again. I recall rowsus posting some stats/ranks of previous years and he was right up there for most so i think you'd be foolish just to dismiss him on the back of one bad year. You would think he gets more support this year and with godd gone maybe he gets a bigger chunk of the pie??

Impromptu · 10 Feb 2013

@Rowsus - where are you hiding this Dal Santo post; LOL as I remember reading it too.

mpollock · 10 Feb 2013

A no for me ... he has been around a while and he is not under priced due to injury ... he is just slowing down a tad (a bit like St.Kilda) ... no upside that i can see ... more importantly, better options out there.

Rowsus · 11 Feb 2013

I'm worried his decline, and St kildas might be parallel. If it is, my expectation is St kilda might struggle this year, so NDS might find it hard to get back over 110. No for me at this stage.

Impromptu · 11 Feb 2013

Rowsus said:

Thanks for the great analysis in your previous post, which I've quoted in this article.

Completely understand all the 'No', but geez Dal Santo is very tempting.

mpollock · 11 Feb 2013

Out of interest ... he is priced about the same as Shuey and Redden ... so it is a choice between old hand bouncing back or two young guys who could do a Cotchin and Dangerfield of last year ...

IDIG · 11 Feb 2013

Given the choice between a proven n potential, i go proven every day of the week and twice on sundays. The thing with dal is, is he a proven coming off a bad year or a proven on the decline.

frosty · 11 Feb 2013

Dal Santo is a huge no for me... I dont think its got anything to do with a decline as much as it is with a change of role under Scott Watters, NDS is no longer the receiving ball magnet he was under Ross Lyon's St.Kilda.... his days of regularly racking up 30+ disposals are over

Breaker · 11 Feb 2013

IDIG said:

Interesting, I have the exact opposite belief. For 2 players of similar price, I would go with the break-out potential rather than the underpriced 'proven'. Age is really a big thing for me, the younger guys have more potential to improve. In this case you know Dal Santo will get you a 115 avg at best, and that's if he reaches the same height as previous years. However the younger guys don't have a ceiling, so more potential in theory.

IDIG · 11 Feb 2013

mpollock said:

Breaker said:

'Could do' and 'potential' are both types that always worry me and its very much a risk/reward situation for me. Not to say NDS is a better or worse pick than Redden or Shuey, I just feel its a safer bet.

Admittedly this has been my downfall in previous years and going one year too many with a proven has hurt me so I'm open to change, I just feel (especially with a favourable early draw) Dal has the value and consistency worthy of a pick depending on structure.

Goodie's Guns · 11 Feb 2013

Breaker said:

Thats the way I have been thinking whilst selecting players in my side. Can they improve, will age be a factor in this and consistency vs. ceiling are just some of the questions I have asked myself over every selection. In most cases the younger guys have come out on top.

johno686 · 11 Feb 2013

Wont go near again, saints on the way down.

Rockydunlop · 11 Feb 2013

dal played on the half back in the intra match and looks in ripping condition. he is still the best playmaker in the team..very tempting. he's in a the moment! the only minus is he's not in my calculations as a top 15 midfielder for this yr.

Analysis Nick Dal Santo

Will Nick Dal Santo be in your Initial SuperCoach Team in 2013?

1. Locked

2. Likely

3. Watch

4. Unlikely

5. No

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