Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus. I posted the following in the 'Round 3 Trades' thread but just thought I'd ask for your expert advice here too if you wouldn't mind;

Over the next 2 weeks I'll definitely be trading out Ablett and C Pearce. The two players I will be bringing in are definitely Fyfe and the Bont.

The problem is that I don't have the funds to do the two trades I'm planning on doing. I fall $54,200 short so basically I need to make a third trade to be able to make the other two trades possible. Fyfe has a breakeven of 110 so he will likely reach that and increase a bit in price and hopefully Pearce makes his breakeven of 55 and increases his price a little as well. So this week it will be Ablett to Bont and my mystery trade. Then next week Pearce to Fyfe.

My team is linked. Thoughts on the the third mystery trade?

Hi BB,
so what we are looking at is, Ablett to Bont gives you $312,300. Currently C Pearce to Fyfe will cost $378,700, and you fall $54,200 short, so you have $12,200. In round figures the Exchange figure on Pearce to Fyfe changes to:

$378,700 + (Fyfe's score - Pearce's score - 110 + 55) x 440 =>

$354,500 + ((Fyfe's score - Pearce's score) x 440) = change over price +/- $600.

That could be as low as (Fyfe 80, Pearce 110) $341,300, or as high as (Fyfe 160, Pearce 40) $407,300.

You will have $324,500 after the Ablett to Bont trade, so to be sure of reaching Fyfe next week, you need $82,800 from your mystery trade!

It leaves you very few options.
Newton to Sinclair,
Lumumba/Newnes to Hunt/Roberton.

My first pick would be Newton to Sinclair, my next pick would be Lumumba to Hunt, but only if you really have to have the Bont.

 

[Bobbie]

Hey Bobbie,
if my memory serves me correctly, just like me, your "second guessing" has got you into trouble once or twice in the last season or so. Going like for like with Ablett is probably the best idea. Sloane has posted 17 120+ scores in the last 2.02 seasons (45 games), which makes him a viable candidate to use in the Captain's loophole. Assuming you have Fyfe, I think Sloane is a great choice for Ablett. To my mind, Sloane and JPK lead the pack for Ablett replacements for those that have Fyfe already.
Fortunately, Carlton play before the Bullies, so if Cripps is green vested/late out Again/not selected, it makes using him to get Bont an easy choice.
If he isn't, I guess you need to ask yourself, what do you hope/expect Bont can average from here, and Docherty can average from here. Both are obviously being looked on as Keepers, and Fwd Keepers are expected to score more than Def Keepers, so if you think Doch may be just a D6, and Bont an F3/4, there's probably more safety in locking the Bont in now. If you are confident Doch can be a bit better, and maybe be a D4, the $205k leftover is more than useful.
As to thinking you are thin in Defence, keep in mind the Defs usually have bigger downs swings in their prices, as they are more likely to throw in a 40 than another Prem. That means the Def line is the easiest to fix later, and the line you give up the least point differential on, when compating your Rookies/Stepping Stones/Mid Pricers to the Prems.
Use your crystal ball, and decide if the Bont can become a near must/should have. He is the one, that if you have a high opinion of him, is the most likely to be harder to reach, the longer you leave him. Docherty/Smith et al will be more likely to dip at some stage.
Bottom line, get Sloane, and unless you have Docherty well below Bont in expected averages from here, I'd go Docherty and cash. If you think Docherty is only on the edge of being a decent Def Keeper, but you are comfortable that Bont is a Fwd Keeper, go Bont. If you can't decide, it is always better to go the cheaper option/option that leaves you more cash. The cash represents versatility, and potentially saved time and trades.
Tough decision, but the timing of the games this week favours you in your decision making.
Good luck, I hope you jump the right way.

Yes your memory has served you correctly! Second guessing has been my downfall in the past!! Thanks for your words of wisdom. I think I feel more comfortable with Sloane, even though I have the other "big 4" in Jelwood, Pendles, Fyfe and JPK. I'll wait on teams before making the decision between Bont and Docherty. If Smith is named that throws up another option but I'll worry about that later.....! If I miss out on Bont for now then so be it.

 

[Mudflap]

Rowsus I like to fill my team with POD's. For the last 5 years it has worked really well for me. My worst finish would have still be in the top 10 000 overall (a couple of top 2000 finishes) and my highest ranking was 19th at about round 10, 3 years ago. This season I have done the same thing but have made a few choices that have gone wrong and my team is in a bit of a mess.

As your talents seem endless my question to you is do you have the ability to turn back time? If so I would really like another crack at my round 1 team

 

[darkshines]

Hi Courtesans,
yes, it's not the worst disaster that could hit us. The high prices makes it an easy problem to solve, and while it burns a trade or two, it gave us 2 weeks of information to make a decision. I turned/am turning Ablett/Rocky/Miller/Rookie? into Fyfe/Neale/Bontempell/VandenBerg. I wanted Hannebery instead of Neale, but Neale allowed me to reach Bont easily. That was last week, before Ablett's left wing was confirmed as being knackered.
It would have been awkward if I wasn't satisfied with my Rookie list, but seeing as I went Miller to VandenBerg last week, I think I have enough of the right ones. Those that have Ablett/Rocky and Rookie problems need to fix those Rookie problems first, then get Prems to replace the other two.
I might have handled the whole thing differently, had I known Ablett was that bad before I traded last week, but I am not too upset at how it worked out. I just have to save a trade or two where I can in the coming weeks. I have a feeling the carnage will continue, and I would rather eat a rookie donut than spend a trade to fix it, in the next 3 or 4 weeks.
I like your Ablett/Rocky exchange. I reckon you've picked well there! Fixed 3 problems with the fix up. Good work.

You didnt start with Neale?!? You were the Neale champion lol

 

[MC's Mix]

Hi Rowsus,

Just wondering if you can give me some advice on a potential trade this week. I'm sitting fairly comfortably, ranked about 2600th and haven't traded as yet. My remaining funds are minimal: $15,100.
Basically my concern is with KK/Goodes/Cripps. I'm also very dirty that I didn't start with Docherty after having him locked all pre-season!
My thoughts are:
Goodes/Cripps to (rookie)
KK to (gun defender - anyone sub-480k basically)

My team is as follows:

Def: Shaw, Newnes, Lumumba, KK, Saad, McIntosh (Oxley, Goodes)
Mids: Fyfe, Pendles, Danger, Selwood, Neale, NVB, CEY, Vandenberg (Heeney, Miller, Cripps)
Ruck: Goldy, Nic Nat (Read)
Fwds: Ziebell, Swan, Bennell, Martin, Hogan, Salem (Clark, Lonie)

30 trades, 15k remain.


Any thoughts on potential trades?
Cheers!

 

[anfa18]

Hi Rowsus, i'm back yet again... I have 256k in the bank and my team is linked --->

So far i haven't done too badly in terms of rookies and missing most of the carnage. I had Ablett for round 1, i decided to go with my gut last minute and trade him to Dangerfield before the Adelaide game last week.

On to my questions.

What are your thoughts on my team so far?
What types of trade/s do you think i should be looking at if any? rookie/s, mid pricer or possible premium like Bontempelli?
Adelaide have a nice run up to the byes, which has got me considering Van Berlo. Is Lambert > NVB solid or should i go Lambert to Lonie (i have DPP link)
I am also considering Cripps out (if not named) to NVB and then going Lambert to Lonie (if not named as the sub). Should i hold Cripps even if he's not named and skip NVB?

Anyway, thanks for any insight you can provide.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus I like to fill my team with POD's. For the last 5 years it has worked really well for me. My worst finish would have still be in the top 10 000 overall (a couple of top 2000 finishes) and my highest ranking was 19th at about round 10, 3 years ago. This season I have done the same thing but have made a few choices that have gone wrong and my team is in a bit of a mess.

As your talents seem endless my question to you is do you have the ability to turn back time? If so I would really like another crack at my round 1 team

If only, Mudflap........ if only.

 

[Rowsus]

You didnt start with Neale?!? You were the Neale champion lol

I know, right?! I was also the one pushing up for Docherty and Hannebery, and didn't end up with either of them, too!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Just wondering if you can give me some advice on a potential trade this week. I'm sitting fairly comfortably, ranked about 2600th and haven't traded as yet. My remaining funds are minimal: $15,100.
Basically my concern is with KK/Goodes/Cripps. I'm also very dirty that I didn't start with Docherty after having him locked all pre-season!
My thoughts are:
Goodes/Cripps to (rookie)
KK to (gun defender - anyone sub-480k basically)

My team is as follows:

Def: Shaw, Newnes, Lumumba, KK, Saad, McIntosh (Oxley, Goodes)
Mids: Fyfe, Pendles, Danger, Selwood, Neale, NVB, CEY, Vandenberg (Heeney, Miller, Cripps)
Ruck: Goldy, Nic Nat (Read)
Fwds: Ziebell, Swan, Bennell, Martin, Hogan, Salem (Clark, Lonie)

30 trades, 15k remain.


Any thoughts on potential trades?
Cheers!

If Cripps is named, and not green vested, I would hang onto him.
The only trades I'd be considering there would be KK/Goodes to Docherty/Brown. I'm not 100% sold I would pull that trigger though.
If Goodes is dropped, you could consider going to Brown anyway, as a one off trade. Adamson might normally be a consideration, to set up a FD, but in this case, it might take a few weeks to get him up in your Mids to complete the link, so I'd say no to that.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, i'm back yet again... I have 256k in the bank and my team is linked --->

So far i haven't done too badly in terms of rookies and missing most of the carnage. I had Ablett for round 1, i decided to go with my gut last minute and trade him to Dangerfield before the Adelaide game last week.

On to my questions.

What are your thoughts on my team so far?
What types of trade/s do you think i should be looking at if any? rookie/s, mid pricer or possible premium like Bontempelli?
Adelaide have a nice run up to the byes, which has got me considering Van Berlo. Is Lambert > NVB solid or should i go Lambert to Lonie (i have DPP link)
I am also considering Cripps out (if not named) to NVB and then going Lambert to Lonie (if not named as the sub). Should i hold Cripps even if he's not named and skip NVB?

Anyway, thanks for any insight you can provide.

Hi anfa18,
tidy team, and good start.
If Cripps is named and not vested, hold onto him.
If he's not named, or green vested, then a trade to NvB/Bontempelli is probably justified.
Lambert to Lonie, while not something you have to do, is probably justified as well. I don't think the full value is there, in going Lambert to NvB.
Not trading is also an option.

 

[Maso]

Ok do we need The Bont ???
at this stage im looking at 2 options -
1/ Gazz and cameron > Jpk and Bont
2/ Gazz and Lumumba > Jpk and Sloane

Option 2 i can move saad to the backs and have 2 of saad,mac or ox on field. i started with 4/1/1 backline.
would it be better to stick with team structure and go Option 1 or back the rookies to still outscore the prince and get two Premo mids giving me - fyfe, slone, Jpk, selwood, wines and griffen.

 

[Rowsus]

Ok do we need The Bont ???
at this stage im looking at 2 options -
1/ Gazz and cameron > Jpk and Bont
2/ Gazz and Lumumba > Jpk and Sloane

Option 2 i can move saad to the backs and have 2 of saad,mac or ox on field. i started with 4/1/1 backline.
would it be better to stick with team structure and go Option 1 or back the rookies to still outscore the prince and get two Premo mids giving me - fyfe, slone, Jpk, selwood, wines and griffen.

I'm still not 80% convinced the Bont is a must have. I have this nagging feeling in the back of my mind, to follow one of my rules. The more people running in the one direction, the better excuse to run in a different, but not necessarily opposite, direction. I share Obie's view, that he's a 19yo 2nd year player, that may struggle to hold up under the coming physical pressure. That combined with not having played a good team yet has me a bit concerned.
Having said all that, how exciting does option 2 look? Even if the Prince comes good, and justifies his selection, that's a pretty sexy use of Ablett being out. I'd go option 2.

 

[Maso]

I'm still not 80% convinced the Bont is a must have. I have this nagging feeling in the back of my mind, to follow one of my rules. The more people running in the one direction, the better excuse to run in a different, but not necessarily opposite, direction. I share Obie's view, that he's a 19yo 2nd year player, that may struggle to hold up under the coming physical pressure. That combined with not having played a good team yet has me a bit concerned.
Having said all that, how exciting does option 2 look? Even if the Prince comes good, and justifies his selection, that's a pretty sexy use of Ablett being out. I'd go option 2.

Thanks mate , yea does look good and if bonts keeps going well i guess i bring him over the byes may have to pay 500+ for him but at that stage will be paying that for anyone that is worth coming in i'd imagine

 

[Bobbie]

Hey Rowsus. Sorry to pester you again but I'm hoping you can offer some advice around KK. I am thinking of holding him now and going the conservative route of only doing the one trade this week (Gaz to Sloane). This leaves me with $250K. (I must admit the concept of trading conservatively is totally foreign to me!)

Now, if KK averages 75 - 80 what would you expect his price to be by round 12 when he has the bye? If he looks to hold his price is there merit in waiting to trade him to a (hopefully) discounted premium defender? The only thing is that I risk losing points in the meantime.

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Row,

I was planning on getting one of Sloane / JPK next week..would you consider a Pendles to Sloane / JPK trade this week and then pick up Pendles in a week or two.

Both Sloane / JPK should pass their breakeven but Pendles wont. It means I can get one of the two cheaper now and then get Pendles when he drops a bit. The main reason though is it gives me a chance to see if Pendles is at 100% (like with Gaz) if he injures his ankle / gets subbed / isnt at full fitness it may save me money if a trade is needed and points lost if he doesnt perform.

Worst case and Pendles is fine I lose a trade and whatever points he outscores the others by (if he does)

Thanks mate

 

[dyii]

Hey Rowsus,

After going Ablett>Fyfe I've got 300k in the bank and not sure how to spend it.

1. After reading yours and others advice I'm not going NVB as I have all the best rookies and it would require say a Lambert>Miller up to him which is kind of wasted

2. Sticking with my gut and not bringing the Bont in

With my last trade I am tossing up between a few options:
Option A: Goddard>Gray, Gray has performed well in losses and think he will be F1 this year, can't afford to miss out on a huge score from him. Goddard on the other hand seems to be playing utility with limited time in the mids, think he will finish the year on a 90-95.

Option B: Newnes/Lumumba>Smith, if named. If Smith is named I think he's almost a must have, and hence would make this trade somewhat easier. Hopefully he isn't named though.

Option C: Griffen/Selwood>Sloane. This is probably the most sideways out of these sideways trades, but Sloane looks real good and Selwood looks slow.

Option D: Hold, and save trades.

I''m currently leaning towards option A, what are your thoughts?

 

[dicksilverman]

Hi Rowsus, Leuie out has thwarted my Gaz/C Smith to Heeney/JPK plan. Now need to go Gaz/Leuie to JPK/NicNat. Looks like I'm going to miss Heeney but see no alternatives. Have I missed anything?

Thanks mate....

 

[Prochard]

Hi Rowsus, Leuie out has thwarted my Gaz/C Smith to Heeney/JPK plan. Now need to go Gaz/Leuie to JPK/NicNat. Looks like I'm going to miss Heeney but see no alternatives. Have I missed anything?

Thanks mate....

I know its a question for Rowsus, but just want to help Rowsus with the load here
Gaz/Leuy>Heeney>Nic Nat
You can get JPK anytime you want.

 

[Kafka]

Hiya Row,

Thanks for all the help and the interesting advice. I was very much looking forward to hearing your theory of time travel yet alas it is even beyond you

I have Leuy, no cover and about $400,000 to spend. I think maybe his out is disciplinary due to a lack of effort on the part of the brissie boys and he looks like he may be one of the boys held to account, like Aish last week. In that should I now ride the donut (that sounds kinda wrong) and believe that he will come back next week or should I just trade and maybe bring in Grundy? Who I think may be looking ok this year and will make money this week with a low B/E. I cannot see another option I like at this stage within the lower money values, TBC is a No and I think Wood is possibly just that dead .... It is a risk with Grundy but I think maybe he has surpassed Witts in the ranking at Collingwood and his DE isn't disgusting like so many other rucks of the lower echelons. I suppose the other option is Blicavs but I get the feel as a mr fix it he will have quite a few lock down roles.

Your thoughts as always would be highly appreciated
Cheers

 

[dicksilverman]

I know its a question for Rowsus, but just want to help Rowsus with the load here
Gaz/Leuy>Heeney>Nic Nat
You can get JPK anytime you want.

Thanks Pro, just figured I was better off changing Gaz to premo. Ur saying I ride the rookie train instead? Leaves me 3 premos plus Neale in mids.

Edit: am with you now Pro. Rookie mistake, have plenty of $ left in the bank. Will upg C Smith to JPK next week.