Analysis Pinch Hitter

[Impromptu]

Sometimes we need to pick players for just for a set period of time and not for the entire season, such as a SuperCoach 'Pinch Hitter'.

In baseball, the 'Pinch Hitter' is:

• A substitute for a regular player
• A player who bats in place of a player scheduled to bat, especially when a hit is badly needed

I was thinking whether we could find a 'Pinch Hitter' in SuperCoach 2013.

BRENT STANTON (2012)

Now the obvious one that stands out is Brent Stanton in 2012, where he scored 180 (NTH), 134 (PTA), 93 (GCS), 161 (CAR), 71 (COL), 154 (BRL), 164(WCE), 142 (RIC) in the his first 8 games. That's an average of 137 when Stanton was priced at 99.4. Notably, when he was tagged he scored 93 (GCS/Harbrow), 77 (COL/Clarke), 72 (GWS/Sculley). Therefore, it appears that Stanton is one of those players who if you pick at the right time, he can go big.

The question is with the additional trades in 2013, will there be an opportunity to find a Pinch Hitter in SuperCoach, a player who you do not want in your final or regular team but is there for a reason for say 8 games?

JACK RIEWOLDT (2011)

I'll give you an example with my 2011 SuperCoach team with Jack Riewoldt. Refer to my article: Trading to Win (2), which I quote the relevant parts:

[R5] Trading In and Out Jack Riewoldt: The Cash Cow Premium

1. [R5] L. Tapscott >J. Riewoldt ($343,900) (Trade In)
   - who then scored 136, 109, 94, 75, 104, 63 (ave 97)
2. [R11] J. Riewoldt ($392,900) > T. Mzungu (Trade Out)
   - who then scored [bye], 57, 87, 73, 72, 59, 88, 68, 94, 97,107, 97, 60 (ave 80)

As you can see I used Riewoldt as a premium player between rounds 5 to 10, where he averaged 97 then used Riewoldt as a quasi cash cow and made a small profit of $49,000 when I traded out Riewoldt around the Tigers’ bye. People who had Riewoldt at the start of the season paid for him at a price of average 92, but his yearly average was 81. However, I on the other hand, traded in Riewoldt for $343,900 (or priced at 70) then he scored an average of 97 for the next 6 games and I made a small profit, but importantly I avoided both Tigers byes and yes. I probably wasted 2 trades, but it was worth it. The importance of Riewoldt was he was traded into my team at the perfect time as i need a quasi-premium to continue to score well, which he did with an average of 97 over 6 game, while my other cash cows were ‘moooooo-ing’.

I'm not saying to start throwing away trades left right and centre, but rather to 'keep an open mind'.

In 2013, with the additional trades and the 'Top 18 Rule' combined with more DPPs, I'd say you have an extra 8-9 rather 6 trades when you add all the additional factors.

Now this article is not about Brent Stanton, but he does raise an interesting argument. With Watson and Goddard, presumably first and second tag, Stanton could run riot. I'll be honest and I was thinking of this left field selection, which some people call it, how do I put it, an 'Impromptu Move', however am sitting on the fence right now. Some people categorise my trading out a fit and healthy Sandilands in SuperCoach 2011 as an 'Impromptu Move'. However, I always do things for a reason with a calculated risk.

Now I'm not recommending that Brent Stanton should or should not be selected as I believe most people wouldn't touch Brent Stanton with a ten foot poll. For that reason I didn't write an article on Stanton nor do a poll, but I just thought I'd bring it to your attention about Pinch Hitters.

Don't be afraid to think outside the square. However, don't get tricked into thinking a 'Pinch Hitter' suddenly becomes a premium. Remember, when I traded in Jack Riewoldt, I had a plan to trade him in with the 6 softer games and then trade him out before Richmond's bye in 2012. There was a plan, there was a reason and whether it worked out is somewhat irrelevant, as noone can predict the future.

I reiterate this article is not about selecting Brent Stanton, but rather a reminder to keep an open mind.

 

[Rowsus]

The pinch hitter is an interesting idea, and it is Stantons start to the season last season that had me wondering about it.
Is there anyone Coach brave enough to trade out a player, just because their start to the season is just too good?
Most people, outside of the total one-eyed Essendon supporters, probably expected Stantons year to have a correction at some stage. Was there anyone who said "He's done his job, he can't go on like this, time to cash out and try someone else"?
The logic works something like this: I expect player A to average 105 this season, after he averaged 90 last season. He's got away to a tearing start, and has averaged 140 after 8 games. He just can't keep going at that rate, and even with my adjusted forecast for him now being 115 for the season, which represents an incredible jump still, he must now average something like 100/game to fall to that 115. It's a statistical correction that happens in the vast majority of unexpected tearaway cases. I can take advantage of his price jump, now he goes gone from $540,000 to $650,000 I can turn him into Swan, who I think can average 120 from here on in.
It's an incredibly brave move, but one that can have huge rewards. I actually hinted at it with Stanton last year to a friend. The problem was, I hinted/suggested it after round 6. Stanton then went 164, 142 and then crashed. And there in lies the problem. Just when is the right time to cash out that over performer?
I guess cashing out an overperformer is a little different to Jay's pinch hitter, but in one sense, it turns that player into a pinch hitter (just not a planned or intended one).

 

[Philzsay]

Sounds really great, I actually have had one player in mind that I had been toying with as a pinch hitter for the first third of the season. Especially as this is one way to create a positive POD, and could you imagine if you could have 2 or 3 pinch hitters throughout the year!

The extreme challenge lies in the exectution.

Firstly selecting the right player. I mean who would have foreseen Stanton blasting out of the blocks last year, little lone had the guts to put him in their team instead of one of the fairly standard gun premiums? Further it only takes one dud week score to virtually render the gamble useless.

Secondly even if one had the forsight to cash them out actually pulling the trigger would be tough, especially if weekly circumstances gets in the way. By that I mean lets say I was going to trade the pitch hitter out round 8, but then that week it comes to play that I have 2 rookies hitting their ceiling in the 300k+ range so I delay the pinch hitter trade one week to trade the cash cows to a new rookie and a gun who it at a once in a year bargain price. Then next week Pendles breaks his leg and there is only one other gun I am looking at bringing in that week so I delay trading out the pinch hitter another week. And before I know it the pinch hitter survives the rest of the year.....

So for mine if someone actually does use the pinch hitter ploy to perfection then kudos to them, they would be a very deserved winner of SC if it helped carry them to victory!

 

[hammo42]

I guess it all comes down to establishing a game plan and being disciplined enough to stick to it - remembering why you've made the selections you have and staying the course.

In the case of pinch-hitters, they are there to do a job for 5-6 rounds. That's it.

In the case of over-performers, you may have missed out on their early good scores, but:
1. Can they sustain it given their draw & circumstances?
2. Are they likely to out-perform those you have targeted to bring in?

In the case of potential break-out players selected in your initial team, they many need 8-9 rounds to hit their straps (Beams, Danger).

In each case it would require discipline, patience and commitment.

I recall Rowsus' comment in the 'Error of the Past' thread:

My sins in 2012 were nearly too numerous to list. Just off the top my head, the ones I will try really hard to not recommit this year are:
Not to knee jerk react into trading: I managed to do that 3 times early last season, and none worked out - lesson - unless you are sure, keep your powder dry.
Don't change plans/directions too many times: I went with set and forget rucks, and traded BOTH out early in the season. One was right (Mumford), one was wrong (Cox). Changed the direction I was travelling in 4 times before the byes, and paid the price of ending up with a mish-mash team. - lesson - stay the course, and be patient. If you are forced to change tack, do it once only, and commit completely to that knew direction.
I made one error last year from showing too much patience (missing the straight swap of Cloke and Sidebottom in round 6), and about 7 errors from showing too little patience.
PATIENCE - PATIENCE - PATIENCE.
It will be my mantra in 2013.
I need to learn the lesson, that sometimes doing nothing (not trading), is actually doing something!

I had a similar 2012 experience. 24 trades, not even 30 trades, would have fixed my mistakes. Pinch-hitting is not something I've had the luxury to do. I'm normally fire-fighting! But if I'm going ok and see an opportunity to do it, I'll do it and commit to it.

 

[Epidemick]

Could the pinch hitter spot be filled by a player who may not be likely to play 22 games. Could the pinch hit be saying Luke hodge ill take you and see whether we can make the bye. Paddy Ryder, Robbin gray etc

 

[OzRulesFootball]

I did this with Brock McLean last season in DT. The problem was I traded him out after 5 or 6 weeks, can't remember exactly when, and he kept scoring good...so, all these things are great in theory but timing of it is really the key, adapt and if you see an opportunity that you feel in yourself looks good, back yourself.. Better to do it and get it wrong or prosper from it than sit in with the pack and just do nothing different and wonder if only at end of season. In 2011 season you had the Jack Riewoldt thing , Selwood thing, Sandilands thing, Tippett thing and Mzungo thing as ways you showed you adapted and was not scared to try something a little different. Bravo to the pro-active player.

 

[Rowsus]

I did this with Brock McLean last season in DT. The problem was I traded him out after 5 or 6 weeks, can't remember exactly when, and he kept scoring good...so, all these things are great in theory but timing of it is really the key, adapt and if you see an opportunity that you feel in yourself looks good, back yourself.. Better to do it and get it wrong or prosper from it than sit in with the pack and just do nothing different and wonder if only at end of season. In 2011 season you had the Jack Riewoldt thing , Selwood thing, Sandilands thing, Tippett thing and Mzungo thing as ways you showed you adapted and was not scared to try something a little different. Bravo to the pro-active player.

Spot on Oz. The game belongs to those that do things (and get them right). People sitting on their hands will always wonder....

 

[Impromptu]

This is off the cuff and I don't want to be bitten twice but Mumford for pinch hitting? Then to Naitanui?

 

[Rowsus]

This is off the cuff and I don't want to be bitten twice but Mumford for pinch hitting? Then to Naitanui?

It doesn't suck. We are half expecting a slow start from Nicnat, and Mummy can go large.
Against that, even though Sydney start with an easy draw, he only averages 98 in 3 games against GWS and GC. A stinking 78.33 against the Kangas, but a good 116 against Geelong.
In 2010 when he averaged 92.6 he only averaged 76 in his first 3 games.
In 2011 when he averaged 112.6 he only averaged 103 in his first 3 games.
In 2012 when he averaged 91.0, his first 3 games back from injury, he only averaged 71.3.
All in all, he looks like a slow starter, drawn to play teams he hasn't averaged well against.
But it is all small sample pools, so it doesn't mean it can't work.

 

[All is Wells]

Naitainui isnt expected to play the first few rounds

 

[IDIG]

How about NDS, Joey or NRoo who have GC and GWS in their early rounds???

The problem with this strategy would be when to cut loose...gosh it would've been hard to let go of Stanton after round 8 with that average but our tough second half of the year was widely documented so who knows. Would it take a braver man to have traded him out half way through last year or trade him in?

 

[johno686]

This is now more for dream team with the rule changes.

 

[OzRulesFootball]

This is now more for dream team with the rule changes.

No such game Dreamteam is dead r.i.p. 2012
The Mayans were right

 

[mpollock]

I got Stanton in after round 1 last year with my trade aggressive early tactic ... it worked well for a period of time before he dropped off. I was thinking the other day of doing exactly what you say in your article this year ... going with Stanton up from and then trading him out in the bye rounds ...

The issue is that you need to be committed to that strategy and if he is averaging 125 at that point you may be tempted to keep him when in reality all the stats show he will drop right off ....

The other consideration is how many mids to start ... i think given we have 8 on field mids this year you will need at least 4 premiums to start with ... Stanton would be 5 as i wouldn't want to start without 4 lock mids this year. That leaves money a bit tight for other positions like Defenders where personally i don't see many options outside of all the top guys who are mainly round 13 bye players ..

Are there other "pinch hitters" people can think of in other positions who tend to start the year like a house on fire?

 

[mpollock]

What about using a Dempsey for example as a pinch hitter? He is very injury prone but tends to always score well when he actually plays (based on defenders scores that is ... ). Or another injury prone player could also work the same ... J

 

[Nk29]

I got Stanton in after round 1 last year with my trade aggressive early tactic ... it worked well for a period of time before he dropped off. I was thinking the other day of doing exactly what you say in your article this year ... going with Stanton up from and then trading him out in the bye rounds ...

The issue is that you need to be committed to that strategy and if he is averaging 125 at that point you may be tempted to keep him when in reality all the stats show he will drop right off ....

The other consideration is how many mids to start ... i think given we have 8 on field mids this year you will need at least 4 premiums to start with ... Stanton would be 5 as i wouldn't want to start without 4 lock mids this year. That leaves money a bit tight for other positions like Defenders where personally i don't see many options outside of all the top guys who are mainly round 13 bye players ..

Are there other "pinch hitters" people can think of in other positions who tend to start the year like a house on fire?

I think that Pearce Hanley will be the one next year. I will write a more in depth analysis later this week on him regarding this in particular. Will be a good distraction from my upcoming Uni offers

 

[mpollock]

Played every game and averaged 90 as a defender ... he has improved steadily each year as well. To be honest i hadn't even considered him but looks good based on stats. He is 25 so should be about the right age to peak ... will have to watch him in the NAB.

 

[Jandrews]

Which team has the best fixture early on?

 

[Nk29]

Which team has the best fixture early on?

Sydney, Saints, Port, Melbourne.

 

[Jandrews]

Cheers, I'm contemplating the strategy. Although i know i'm too young and dumb to use it wisely