Analysis Brand Names

Impromptu

Strategist
Joined
1 Mar 2012
Messages
6,911
Likes
8,228
AFL Club
Essendon
#1
It's human nature that all things being equal, we choose a product with a brand name over a non-brand name; this applies to SuperCoach too. We need to assume that any analysis is on the basis of 'all things being equal' as if there is a product and/or price differentiation then obviously those factors come into play rather than the simple analysis of brand name versus non-brand name players.

Why do we choose a brand name over a non-brand name product? Perhaps, because the product with the brand name is marketed better, has more exposure, gives us better security or confidence in the product and everyone knows what they are getting with the brand name product.

I'll be honest and say that in SuperCoach I can sometimes be a brand name person; major confession here. It could be because sometimes it's better the Devil you know rather than the Devil you don't know. You know what you are getting with the brand name players.

For example, in SuperCoach 2011, I chose Chris Judd over Mark Murphy. Why? Because I knew what I was getting into by choosing Judd. While I believed Judd would likely get tagged before Murphy, I chose Judd before Murphy due to the Judd's brand name. As it turns out, in SuperCoach 2011, Judd averaged 115.6 (22) when priced at 118.5 whereas Murphy 118.1 (22) when priced at 111.9. Therefore, picking Judd was a fail, if you compared Judd to Murphy, but fortunately this decision did not cost me the 2011 SuperCoach Winner title.

The reason why these brand names are important is because you sometimes sub-consciously choose a brand name because you feel it's the safer option. You believe that in the worst case scenario that if the decision in choosing a brand name player is a fail, at least more people will fail with you as well, so it's a negating factor. On the other hand, when we do choose a non-brand name, let's call that player the Point of Difference (POD, it becomes a two edged situation. The POD is great if it's sucessful, but it's horrible if the POD fails as everyone else without the POD will have a comparative advantage.

Generally, if you are leading the competition or are leading in your league and want to play safe by playing the 'Numbers Games', then it is likely you trade in a brand name player. This is simply what I did in SuperCoach 2011 and is shown in my 'Trading To Win (1)' article. It really depends on what your goal or objective, which depends on the circumstances.

Another example is Rory 'Arvin' Sloane v Patrick Dangerfield. Most people would probably choose Dangerfield over Sloane. Why? Simply, because Dangerfield is the brand name compared to Sloane (on a relative basis). But people need to remember that Dangerfield will probably get tagged before Sloane and Sloane is cheaper. Therefore, if Sloane and Dangerfield average the same and play the same amount of games, then Sloane is obviously the better choice due to his initial starting price.

Recently, NK29 created a great thread to discuss Pearce Hanley. If I was to compare Hanley with a brand name SuperCoach equivalent, then it would likely be Jed Adcock. Both Hanley (90.7, 22 games, $485,200) and Adcock (90.1, 21 games, $482,300) had a decent 2012 with similar numbers. Accordingly, Hanley and Adcock were priced pretty much the same. I think in these circumstances, you back yourself and follow your instinct when deciding between Hanley and Adcock.

I think SuperCoach has evolved where, we don't necessarily need to pick players simply because of their brand name.

I know in some cases, we can associate 'brand name' with the 'premium' status, but it is not really the same thing. For example, I would definitely categorise Dane Swan and Scott Pendlebury as brand names before Dayne Beams. But to illustrate, that a brand name is simply not just the definition of a premium, we need to consider rookies. You would call Lachie Whitfield the brand name rookie for the 2012 AFL Draft and Dustin Martin the brand name rookie for the 2009 AFL Draft. With rookies, I think it's more about security, which you obviously pay a surcharge with the additional price you pay. I think with a risky ploy like an 8 Rookie Midfield, you need to select a few brand names for security.

Reading some of the posts here, overall, I think most people are doing the right thing and ignoring the Brand Name effect. However, I thought that it wouldn't hurt to give a friendly reminder and advise everyone to back your own judgment and while you may or may not be correct, so long as there is a valid reason for your decision then it is fine.

When deciding on a Brand Name and a Non-Brand Name, you need to remember it's a Risk versus Return scenario.
 
Joined
13 Mar 2012
Messages
2,790
Likes
2,985
AFL Club
Adelaide
#2
I have a theory that the game can becone more challenging the longer you play it because you can become tied to certain players that performed well for you in the past and end up inadvertantly becoming risk-averse by sticking with stars of the past over the new premiums that evolve every year.

Judd is a great example of this. Dal Santo in 2012 and again this year could be another.

Conversely, you become anti towards players that burned you in the past. Alternatively, you get tied to a certain strategy (say mid-priced or GnR) that worked for you in a former year. You rationalised that it was a winning strategy applicable to all seasons but in reality to some extent it was a product of the players that were on the table in that particular year.

That can lead to over-analysis and thinking in the next year regarding strategies such that you forget to play the cards that the game deals you in the new season.

Each year seems to see mostly a new top 100 compared to the previous years and I wonder if the open mind of a newcomer (free from positive or negative biases on certain players or strategies) is an advantage.
 
Last edited:

hammo42

Rising Star Winner
Joined
20 Apr 2012
Messages
284
Likes
24
AFL Club
Essendon
#3
Reading some of the posts here, overall, I think most people are doing the right thing and ignoring the Brand Name effect. However, I thought that it wouldn't hurt to give a friendly reminder and advise everyone to back your own judgment and while you may or may not be correct, so long as there is a valid reason for your decision then it is fine.
This is a trap I've fallen into and had a hard time getting out of. I went with the 'set and forget' brand-name players thinking "geez that team looks good!" only to find other teams have those break-out players and in-form players much earlier than I do, and I have to play catch-up. I have also found myself making up for last season's mistakes - "I missed out on XYZ player (eg Dayne Beams) last year, but I'll get him in from the start this year" without considering other potential break-out players for the upcoming season.

I have read other people's teams here with great interest, and I'd say the high majority are not your brand-name, 'cookie-cutter' teams. There are players common to most teams, but the reasoning behind them is clear and well-discussed on these pages.

This website and the contributions of everyone have opened my eyes and broadened my thinking. This year every single player I have selected has been scrutinised and selected with reason, not based on reputation or 'branding'. It can only improve my results - I can't wait for the season to start.
 
Joined
8 Mar 2012
Messages
565
Likes
225
AFL Club
Collingwood
#4
Greetings everyone. Great article Jay and it all boils down to what you have been used to. Are you a Nike man or an Adidas man?
After watching "Moneyball" for the upteenth time, its time to look for players based on statistics (and opportunities) not player worth or perception.

I do call myself a materialistic person but its time to look at the alternatives i.e. New Balance, Reebok, Asics...(wow out of my comfort zone again). They all do the same job but at differing prices. Do i buy basketball shoes to do a running job?

When doing your stats, why dont you hide the player name, pic your team on the stats you require and then check the player names...bet there will be quite a few surprises...
 
Joined
19 Jun 2012
Messages
8,560
Likes
11,561
AFL Club
Collingwood
#5
Absolute truth in this article Jay, and I am as guilty as the next player. In all facets of human life we see this. For example who do you think the majority would pick between Matthew Wright and Dustin Martin?
 

Goodie's Guns

Leadership Group
Joined
21 May 2012
Messages
22,312
Likes
31,158
AFL Club
Hawthorn
#6
Absolute truth in this article Jay, and I am as guilty as the next player. In all facets of human life we see this. For example who do you think the majority would pick between Matthew Wright and Dustin Martin?
Exactly what I was thinking. Matt Wright is on the verge of a 'breakout season' and Martin has been thereabout for the last year or two. Wright is little known and a very good chance to not only outdo Martin in 2013 but finish comfortably in the top 10 forwards. Whereas Martin is a BRAND NAME who I yet to deliver but with potential if he gets it all right. And as you say most SC will go Martin over Wright this season on that alone.
 

Philzsay

Leadership Group
Joined
21 Mar 2012
Messages
10,448
Likes
14,965
AFL Club
Essendon
#7
I have a theory that the game can becone more challenging the longer you play it because you can become tied to certain players that performed well for you in the past and end up inadvertantly becoming risk-averse by sticking with stars of the past over the new premiums that evolve every year.
Yes agree, it is a challenge. But the challenge it what entices us back year after year. :)

It also helps that the game and the rules seem to change every year. This year it the extra trades, rolling lock outs etc. Last year it was the byes factor. I wonder how many people here remember the first year of SC when you actually had 4 ruckman in the 22!

The key is the ability to select the right brand players to back up/improve their performances whilst also selecting the right new players about to enter premium/gun status. And then getting the right rookies to be the best cash cows, and then throughout the season making generally the right trades at the right time. Easier said than done. :)

Thinking about my 7 years playing the game there is only one player who has been in my starting squad every single year - Brendon Goddard. And it probably not giving too much away to say he will make it 8 years in a row... :)
 

Epidemick

Rising Star Nominee
Joined
17 Dec 2012
Messages
82
Likes
11
AFL Club
Richmond
#8
When picking my starting side I'm looking to get bang for my buck. Like at DFO I'm looking for brand names at a discounted price. Before the season begins it is theoretically possible for all players to improve. But I have no problem admitting I take comfort in choosing a player who has a track record of doing better in a previous season.
 
Joined
29 Mar 2012
Messages
8,681
Likes
165
AFL Club
Geelong
#10
there's not alot of love for beams this year.
It's because both Swan and Pendles are in full shape now. On top of that, Ball is back.

On this forum, we have a general assumption and theory that based on past results, with Swan, Pendles and Ball all playing now, Beams won't get the HIGH Scores that he got last Year in his BREAKOUT Season opportunity.

Have a look at this Thread, to get a greater explanation: http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/14-The-Collingwood-Conundrum-(expanded)

Hope this helps in the reasoning. :)
 

Jimace The Grimace

Rising Star Nominee
Joined
10 Mar 2013
Messages
113
Likes
8
#11
Absolute truth in this article Jay, and I am as guilty as the next player. In all facets of human life we see this. For example
who do you think the majority would pick between Matthew Wright and Dustin Martin?
Out of those two I wouldn't pick Martin because he is a brand name, but because he has actually averaged 100 before whereas Wright is less proven statistically
 

Goodie's Guns

Leadership Group
Joined
21 May 2012
Messages
22,312
Likes
31,158
AFL Club
Hawthorn
#12
Out of those two I wouldn't pick Martin because he is a brand name, but because he has actually averaged 100 before whereas Wright is less proven statistically
I am starting to have second thoughts on Wright, have locked in Martin but after the weekend where Wright tagged Murphy has me reconsidering. Thoughts on this, was it a one off?:confused:
 
Joined
15 Sep 2012
Messages
475
Likes
217
AFL Club
Essendon
#13
I am starting to have second thoughts on Wright, have locked in Martin but after the weekend where Wright tagged Murphy has me reconsidering. Thoughts on this, was it a one off?:confused:
both of these guys don't feel right to me!

yea wright tagging is a bit of a worry for mine too. then tex goes BANG as well. dusty martin is teasing, but to really up his average he needs to almost take over from tuck, cotch, lids. that aint going to happen. will he just get used on the flank for big portions? if so i don't want him.
 
Joined
19 Jun 2012
Messages
8,560
Likes
11,561
AFL Club
Collingwood
#15
I thought it might be worth bringing this thread back to life given so many teams look so similar.
 
Top