What value do you place on a trade?
I know there has been some discussion of this previously, but I am interested in a range of views - especially any rules of thumb/numbers used to determine these.
This is a tough question that gets asked each year. I think I see people valuing them between 100k-200k. The issue I'm finding with placing a value on a trade is that the value is also time and scoring dependent, meaning their is actually 4 variable to consider, and not 2.
Making a trade prior to prices changing to get the right rookie or move on a poisonous mid pricer can be worth 200k+ in the long run, but also a lot of points. Having a trade or 2 at the end of the season when a player goes out injured and you've got no playing bench depth (think 2014) can give you 100-300 points very quickly, but could it have made you more if you had used it earlier?
Here is a quick summary of how I see a seasons worth of trades planning out:
- In the beginning, you will have 30 trades, 10 million dollars in the form of 30 players + remaining cash, and 23 rounds to use that 10 millions and 30 trades
- For your starting team you are likely to have aimed to select approx 13 keepers, 2 mid pricers/speculative picks, and 15 rookies +- a few either side of those numbers
- From that, 10 of your selected keepers will be need to be in your side for the season, 11 of the rookies will do the job you'd hoped, 4 will need to be corrected or lived with, and the remaining 5 players (underperforming or injured keepers/2 speculative) will need to be corrected or lived with.
- You should use 4 trades in the first 3 rounds (before lockout) to make obvious corrections.
- You will need to use about 11 to downgrade enough players, and 9 to upgrade enough
As you can see, those 5 players that we either have to live with or correct are the difference. You only have 6 trades remaining after making the 4 initial corrections and upgrading your side to 'full premium'. If you use all 5 correcting those other players, then you are left with 1 trade to cover injuries for the season. If you have a few injuries, then you are stuck with players that are not performing to the level that you selected them for.
These 6 trades (plus the 4 you make at the start to correct your starting squad) are where the value is held. The closer you can get your starting squad to the 'optimum' squad, the less trades you need upfront. Now this is going to sounds stupid after all of that, but we need to view our trades in light of the next sentence.
The game will be won by the person that makes the best initial investment with their 10 million dollars, and can make the best use of their 30 trades. The reason I say this is because you each trade you make is 1 of 30 chance you have to make your squad the best squad, so each time you make a trade don't just consider what it's value is in dollars, but consider it in a holistic way. After all 30 trades are made, will this trade be in your 10 trades, or your worst 10 trades? If your not sure, then take more time to think about it. If you don't have time (lockout, late out in the teams, need to cover a donut) then don't make the trade.
All the best trades I've made have been planned. I've had time to sleep on it, let my unconscious mind do some of the decision making for me, and it feels like the right call. The worst trades I've made have been ill thought out, rushed, or I wasn't sure I was making a good trade. Here's an example of one that pops to mind for me, Jackson Merrett in 2014. I was in line at the movies, I saw a late out and had the option of taking Lewy Taylor as emergency, or trading to Jackson Merrett who was coming off a 4 week ave 95 and was priced at 330k. I traded in Jackson Merrett to make some quick cash, and then flick him come the byes after he'd been cover for the first two bye rounds. Lewy outscored him in that game, and in all but one until the byes, where Merrett was dropped in the first week of the byes. He got as high as 400k, but I couldn't trade him because he was never a part of my trading plan and it was never the right time. I ended up losing money, 2 trades and a lot of points on that rushed trade.
Now one bad trade won't ruin your season (I was ranked 11th overall after round 14 that year), but if you don't think through and plan your trades then that will catch up with you in the end. Consider value, timing, the fallen premiums coming up, the score that you are likely to gain, how many trades and round are remaining, the risk profile in your squad (if it's all Vardy's and Mumford's, you may want to conserve some extra trades), and then consider whether the trade feels right. Don't consider your trades in isolation. If you can't sleep on it, or at least have the time to think about it, distract yourself for 5-10 minutes, then come back to it, then you don't have enough time to make a good decision. I've never been annoyed after making a trade that I'd planned and felt right, but didn't quite work out. I have however felt the sting of a late mind-change, a recommendation in the 11th hour from your work colleague who's been out on the gas and is sure [INSERT NAME HERE] is in for a big score, or a trade happy finger that needs to move on Cripps before his time is up.
Ponder, Plan, Distract, Review, Trade.