Opinion Forward Discussions
- Thread starter IDIG
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Is R/F really like paying for INSURANCE PREMIUM?
Many think putting in place an R/F will provide a safety measure for when one of your rucks is out. I think this strategy is fraught with danger.
Its akin to someone living in inland QLD going to their insurance company in September and wanting home insurance for both bushfires and floods.
Insurance company says we as we do not know risk of either (both equal risk) occurring nor whether government will be prepared, they cannot price it. So they say you can pay $1500 and take a choice if you want bushfire OR flood cover but not both. Otherwise we can wait to December when we have a better idea of risks and it will cost you $2,200 for both bushfire and flood. best analogy I could see!
Is the person who get coverage in september really that much better off?
The reason I use this analogy is prior to season starting we don't know who the best R/F to have will be. Paying $400k now and then finding you only get 60points a week, clogging up your forward line and maybe gets dropped/injured etc like Lycett/TBC is not a safety net.
Yes, its unlikely our rucks will play 22 games, however, hopefully if any of our main rucks are out, it will be post round 7-8 when we are looking at upgrades. By then we will know who the best person to bring in will be (most likely only one at best will stand out).
Chasing insurance now is expensive and can lead to trading in and out underperforming R/F. I had Hale (think 2014) sitting in fwd line and then he gradually fell away scoring and eventually dropped, forcing me to trade him. Why? R/F is usually the second ruck in the team (sitting fwd most of the time) and is competing against other R/F, pure rucks and forwards in the squad.
Best advice is to wait and see and address the insurance once the season has commenced.
Many think putting in place an R/F will provide a safety measure for when one of your rucks is out. I think this strategy is fraught with danger.
Its akin to someone living in inland QLD going to their insurance company in September and wanting home insurance for both bushfires and floods.
Insurance company says we as we do not know risk of either (both equal risk) occurring nor whether government will be prepared, they cannot price it. So they say you can pay $1500 and take a choice if you want bushfire OR flood cover but not both. Otherwise we can wait to December when we have a better idea of risks and it will cost you $2,200 for both bushfire and flood. best analogy I could see!
Is the person who get coverage in september really that much better off?
The reason I use this analogy is prior to season starting we don't know who the best R/F to have will be. Paying $400k now and then finding you only get 60points a week, clogging up your forward line and maybe gets dropped/injured etc like Lycett/TBC is not a safety net.
Yes, its unlikely our rucks will play 22 games, however, hopefully if any of our main rucks are out, it will be post round 7-8 when we are looking at upgrades. By then we will know who the best person to bring in will be (most likely only one at best will stand out).
Chasing insurance now is expensive and can lead to trading in and out underperforming R/F. I had Hale (think 2014) sitting in fwd line and then he gradually fell away scoring and eventually dropped, forcing me to trade him. Why? R/F is usually the second ruck in the team (sitting fwd most of the time) and is competing against other R/F, pure rucks and forwards in the squad.
Best advice is to wait and see and address the insurance once the season has commenced.
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I appreciate that you are saying that if your main ruck is out and you switch your R/F to rucks, the F7 comes onto field.
However, at the start of the season, some players are considering at F3/4 to put a R/F into that position rather than another forward of similar price. My advice is a word of caution on that strategy, that its very risky to try to pick a decent R/F prior to round one as history has shown that this role has various issues (job security, risk of drop of in scoring etc).
Last year I couldnt decide on R2 so I started TBC in a ruck role thinking I could move him to forward line later on as an R/F insurance type player (similar to starting in fwd line strategy that players are looking at preseason). Disaster. He polluted my ruck line then polluted my forward line when I moved him forward (brought in Stef Martin).
It turned out better when I just brought Gawn in as a forward (after seeing two scores) and could cover Stef Martin out with him at that time.
However, at the start of the season, some players are considering at F3/4 to put a R/F into that position rather than another forward of similar price. My advice is a word of caution on that strategy, that its very risky to try to pick a decent R/F prior to round one as history has shown that this role has various issues (job security, risk of drop of in scoring etc).
Last year I couldnt decide on R2 so I started TBC in a ruck role thinking I could move him to forward line later on as an R/F insurance type player (similar to starting in fwd line strategy that players are looking at preseason). Disaster. He polluted my ruck line then polluted my forward line when I moved him forward (brought in Stef Martin).
It turned out better when I just brought Gawn in as a forward (after seeing two scores) and could cover Stef Martin out with him at that time.
I think it comes down to looking at who your intended R1/R2 are, and what a reasonable expectation is of missed games.
If you can find a R/F that will score 85/game, and you think between them, your R1/R2 will miss 3-5 games, I would do it.
Let's assume your F7 is worth 65 points. If you use your F7 to cover your R1/R2 you're adding 65/22= 2.95 to your R/F's return each time you use him.
Use him 3 times, and your 85/game player is now worth 93.9, use him 5 times and he's worth 99.8.
You need to look at a reasonable expectation for your R1/R2 in terms of missed games. If I was heading towards Goldy/Jacobs I would probably run without cover, nearly any other combination I would consider the cover option closely, if you think you can find a R/F that should produce 85+/game.
If you can find a R/F that will score 85/game, and you think between them, your R1/R2 will miss 3-5 games, I would do it.
Let's assume your F7 is worth 65 points. If you use your F7 to cover your R1/R2 you're adding 65/22= 2.95 to your R/F's return each time you use him.
Use him 3 times, and your 85/game player is now worth 93.9, use him 5 times and he's worth 99.8.
You need to look at a reasonable expectation for your R1/R2 in terms of missed games. If I was heading towards Goldy/Jacobs I would probably run without cover, nearly any other combination I would consider the cover option closely, if you think you can find a R/F that should produce 85+/game.
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I'm really considering going in the 2016 season with a set and forget forward line.
In previous seasons a haven't had much luck in picking forward rookie's that would generate enough cash to warrant selection and even harder to pick a mid pricier that will become a keeper, that being said I will still start with Bird but at F6.
I just think with the value in the mid price mids (O'meara,Crouch,Libba) you can set and forget one line at least.
In previous seasons a haven't had much luck in picking forward rookie's that would generate enough cash to warrant selection and even harder to pick a mid pricier that will become a keeper, that being said I will still start with Bird but at F6.
I just think with the value in the mid price mids (O'meara,Crouch,Libba) you can set and forget one line at least.
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I'm really considering going in the 2016 season with a set and forget forward line.
In previous seasons a haven't had much luck in picking forward rookie's that would generate enough cash to warrant selection and even harder to pick a mid pricier that will become a keeper, that being said I will still start with Bird but at F6.
I just think with the value in the mid price mids (O'meara,Crouch,Libba) you can set and forget one line at least.
In previous seasons a haven't had much luck in picking forward rookie's that would generate enough cash to warrant selection and even harder to pick a mid pricier that will become a keeper, that being said I will still start with Bird but at F6.
I just think with the value in the mid price mids (O'meara,Crouch,Libba) you can set and forget one line at least.
I'm really considering going in the 2016 season with a set and forget forward line.
In previous seasons a haven't had much luck in picking forward rookie's that would generate enough cash to warrant selection and even harder to pick a mid pricier that will become a keeper, that being said I will still start with Bird but at F6.
I just think with the value in the mid price mids (O'meara,Crouch,Libba) you can set and forget one line at least.
In previous seasons a haven't had much luck in picking forward rookie's that would generate enough cash to warrant selection and even harder to pick a mid pricier that will become a keeper, that being said I will still start with Bird but at F6.
I just think with the value in the mid price mids (O'meara,Crouch,Libba) you can set and forget one line at least.
Expensive type rookie priced players.
Then there's cheaper options, Kerridge, Petracca.
I'll probably start with a few of these guys in my forward and mid lines.
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Definitely not banking on him but if he can cement a regular spot he will be worth a look, his VFL numbers are insane, it's just whether he is good enough to transition to the next level. He seemed to almost try too hard in his AFL games which led to poor performances. If he improves his kicking and decision making/mindset he will be a big loss to my Magpies.
