Opinion Buddy Franklin ($470,100) - Training the house down! :)

[IDIG]

He's been the rollercoaster ride that keeps on giving over the years and I suspect 2016 will be no different. He's yet to really hit his straps in Sydney and from memory has not been in as good nick both physically and mentally since his days at Hawthorn.

2015 - 17 games @ 87 (SYD)
2014 - 19 games @ 100 (SYD)
2013 - 19 games @ 90 (HAW)
2012 - 16 games @ 116 (HAW)
2011 - 19 games @ 111 (HAW)

But like all good SC prospects, he's been burning up the track in the preseason and dominated in Sydney's recent scratch match. Sydney have a great early draw (Coll, Carl, GWS, Ade, WC, BRL, Ess) and I'm fully expecting them to beat up on a couple of teams where Buddy will no doubt be prominent.

He'll be the cheapest he's been in 6 years so offers some real upside but at the same time comes with a fair bit of risk. Anyone think the reward is still there?


Here’s a couple of recent articles written about him:

Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin: Swans forward training strongly, says teammate Luke Parker

SYDNEY midfielder Luke Parker reports star teammate Lance Franklin is “flying” through pre-season training since returning to the club following extended leave due to mental illness.

Parker, who last week signed a new-five year contract, believes Franklin is fitter than he has been going into his previous two seasons at the club.

“He is doing really well at the moment. He’s probably done as much training at this time of year that I’ve seen him do, which is a really good sign. And, he just seems to be enjoying himself and backing up each session not having any injuries or any problems,” Parker told RSN radio on Wednesday morning.

“He’s flying around at the moment, which is great to see and it really gets the boys up to have him and Tippett out there as well. It’s good to have the presence that they have out on the track.

Mobile Franklin stars in Swans' scratch match

LANCE Franklin has continued his solid pre-season with an impressive performance in the Sydney Swans' intra-club practice match on Friday.

Opposed to off-season recruit Michael Talia for most of the 40-minute hit out in Sydney's inner west, Franklin moved well, covered plenty of territory and won numerous possessions around the ground playing as a leading forward.

The three-time Coleman medallist also laid several big tackles and set up scoring opportunities for his teammates with his pressure, showing off a defensive side of his game that is largely underrated by the footy public.

Franklin had a minor finger operation before the Christmas break but appeared untroubled during the spirited scratch match.

 

[johno686]

Locked for me. Cheap and killing it in preseason training

 

[Nathan]

Has been my F4 for a while now.

 

[Snowman]

Not quite a lock yet for me, but absolutely in the mix- classic risk vs reward pick this bloke!

 

[KLo30]

Buddy is a classic example of a buy low and sell high stock.

If you are going down this path you should realise that he is not a keeper and will require a trade, due to his missed games from injury.

It could be a great strategy to start with Buddy, not unlike DimmaWits Cloke selection, as long as it fits with the trades you have planned.

 

[30BucketsofRo]

Could you use him, let's say, till his bye and then trade-up? Historically scores better in earlier in the season and Sydney's draw could aid that. Uses a trade though and it really depends who you trade him into. Then again, he will probably miss games so you may have to use a trade later on in the season in any case (especially finals time).

 

[Nathan]

Buddy is a classic example of a buy low and sell high stock.

If you are going down this path you should realise that he is not a keeper and will require a trade, due to his missed games from injury.

It could be a great strategy to start with Buddy, not unlike DimmaWits Cloke selection, as long as it fits with the trades you have planned.

Could you use him, let's say, till his bye and then trade-up? Historically scores better in earlier in the season and Sydney's draw could aid that. Uses a trade though and it really depends who you trade him into. Then again, he will probably miss games so you may have to use a trade later on in the season in any case (especially finals time).

I'm not over complicating it, I'll keep him all year unless LTI.

 

[IDIG]

Buddy is a classic example of a buy low and sell high stock.

If you are going down this path you should realise that he is not a keeper and will require a trade, due to his missed games from injury.

It could be a great strategy to start with Buddy, not unlike DimmaWits Cloke selection, as long as it fits with the trades you have planned.

Could you use him, let's say, till his bye and then trade-up? Historically scores better in earlier in the season and Sydney's draw could aid that. Uses a trade though and it really depends who you trade him into. Then again, he will probably miss games so you may have to use a trade later on in the season in any case (especially finals time).

Funny you mention this as it's the first thing that came to mind. Was just having a read of Dimma's season review and he traded Cloke at a starting price of $436k to Stevie J in round 7 for a $140k profit and a 113 average.

Here's what he posted about the trade itself in response to BL's post.

There is one trade that really stands out for me.

Travis Cloke > Stevie J at the end of round 6.

Cloke's previous scores had been
Round 3: 133
Round 4: 195
Round 5: 63
Round 6: 124

On fire - and averaging 128 in his past 4 and you trade him to Stevie J

Despite him having a big break-even I remember a number of coaches were actually bringing him in at that stage.

His following 4 weeks were

Round 7: 36
Round 8: 93
Round 9: 83
Round 10: 76

for an average of 72 and a price drop of $128,500

I think that was my best trade as well. The impact was never immediately apparent but I effectively got a whole benefit of a rookie in the cash Travis had gained and subsequently lost others. All whilst scoring at a 130 av. Which SJ then did for several rounds.

If 30 trades stays in I think this kind of trade becomes more valid (like DT with 44 trades)

Dimma, if you're reading would love to hear your thought process behind this strategy and the Cloke pick in particular and whether it's a strategy you would reconsider with a guy like Buddy.

 

[30BucketsofRo]

Think we have to remember that Dimma's move worked so well because Cloke dudded it up after the trade. I'd say Buddy is a better chance of sustaining good form than Cloke so it might not work quite as well

 

[Darkie]

What do people expect him to average, and across how many games (and why?)?

[I'm aware of his 1H/2H skew, thanks to Rowsus' excellent thread ]

 

[BigRuss]

Locked and loaded for me too hasn't moved from f4 all pre season. Too much upside to ignore. If an opportunity presents to trade him at his peak to a fallen premium (Montagna/Deledio) like Dimma did then that's something to consider if it happens. Can't really plan for that situation.

If you pick him I think he's either there for the long haul, or traded if/when an LTI occurs.

 

[Bontempele]

NO CHANCE! Physical and mental issues mean he's got no chance of playing every game, and hasn't averaged 100 since 2012.

 

[Junior Wölf]

I will try be strong and say no and keep myself to that answer.

 

[Courtesans]

Buying an SLR at a SX price, may get a flat and be a SUX model. No warranty unfortunately.

 

[Torress]

470k for a guy who has ended up at 116 for the season in the forward line. he is proven and risky. If I try and load up a forward line with guys in excess of 500k I don't like my team balance and structure.

Can't see myself not starting him this year. I'm very comfortable with the probability of trading him, if he goes on a purple patch early and his price skyrockets then the potential to mimic Dimma's cloke trade could be an option, like Big Russ mentioned you cannot 'plan' for that situation as such; however I do believe dimma was certainly hoping for a good early run for cloke that season! by memory Collingwood ha a nice early draw.

 

[Beijing_Sting]

Buying an SLR at a SX price, may get a flat and be a SUX model. No warranty unfortunately.

However in SC you only get a certain amount of camera purchase opportunities, right? Anyway, he's in my team till he breaks down in NAB because of his beer gut.

 

[Courtesans]

Buying an SLR at a SX price, may get a flat and be a SUX model. No warranty unfortunately.

However in SC you only get a certain amount of camera purchase opportunities, right? Anyway, he's in my team till he breaks down in NAB because of his beer gut.

In mine too. Paid unders for something without GPS and leather. Cheap Veyron would be nice.

 

[kakarot]

Has been my F4 for a while now.

I'm not over complicating it, I'll keep him all year unless LTI.

Exactly the same thinking as you mate.

 

[Zoku Pops]

This will be the decision I mull over the most between now and round 1. There are so many decent arguments both for and against starting him. At this stage, although it doesn't fit my current structure and breaks the 'no risky pick' selection criteria I gave myself, I reckon he will be in my team.

 

[Jordan]

Before observing the table below ask yourself these questions
What will Buddy average realistically for the year? How did you come to that conclusion?

Buddy has only averaged 18.75 games for the last 8 years.
People considering him as a keeper need to take into consideration his PIT score.

Match up what your prediction was with the game count you think he will average and make sure this is a realistic prediction.
Will that score be considered as a premium forward score? If so lock him in if not hope he can be the Travis Cloke When Dimma won