If I could vc some of Buddy's easy games I might pick him but alas! I vc'd him in 2014 against St Kilda and have very happy memories. I can see the potential he has for some big scores but are the games too staggered to build up a nice price? Lightning doesn't strike twice but Cloke actually has a great early draw and is $100k cheaper than Buddy! The Collingwood midfield is building nicely, Grundy and Witts will be another preseason better and Howe should take some pressure off the big bloke.
Opinion Buddy Franklin ($470,100) - Training the house down! :)
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Hey guys, mind if I wade in? IDIG has asked if I could add my 2c.
Cloke was a different player going into 2013 (or was seen as much). In 2010 he av. 91 and 2011 he av 98 before a disappointing 81 in 2012. Priced at this level he seemed a good value bet going into 2013. I cant recall honestly if his early draw swung me. It needs to be said that obviously I didn't pick Cloke KNOWING i'd trade him to an SJ in rd 7 but presented with the opportunity it was a no brainer. His BE (due to a rolling 63) was something like 190 in round 7. No matter what his price was at the highest it would be this was obvious @120 odd! Meanwhile SJ also started the year under priced and had just banged out a 160 odd playing pure mid (keep in mind his 1st game was rd 3 too so only 1-2 price moves). Dunno what it was but his BE was next to nothing. Barring injury this trade was a winner no matter what, but clearly Cloke spudding up the next week was a cherry on top.
I think that trading has become more aggressive that much is clear. If you want to win you are gonna need one or two risky moves that pay off for you. I think whether or not Franklin is a keeper is irrelevant going into 2016. What you are looking for imo is to try and place yourself in a position like I was. To do that you need a player who is underpriced going into the season (tick) and who can pump out monster scores (double tick). Ideally he isn't a popular pick (less so Buddy).
Winning SC takes HEAPS of luck that much is clear. Massive ass factor required but my theory is you gotta try find ways to put yourself in a position to capitalise on luck going your way. Thats where the skill lies. Banking keepers and then just trading cash cows up and down is enough to finish very high in the rankings but I doubt it will ever win you the 50k. Something out of the box is required.
Buddy is in and out of my team....i think i said in the fwds thread he was my first picked this year....well he's out right now and perhaps if he becomes more popular conversely will become less likely to return. F4 is the highest I think he'll sit if he makes it back in.
If you are starting buddy it is solely in the hope that he averages 140 odd over the first 5 rounds and quickly becomes your ticket to a goldy up-trade!
btw Tav Cloke looks pretty cheap this year too!
Cloke was a different player going into 2013 (or was seen as much). In 2010 he av. 91 and 2011 he av 98 before a disappointing 81 in 2012. Priced at this level he seemed a good value bet going into 2013. I cant recall honestly if his early draw swung me. It needs to be said that obviously I didn't pick Cloke KNOWING i'd trade him to an SJ in rd 7 but presented with the opportunity it was a no brainer. His BE (due to a rolling 63) was something like 190 in round 7. No matter what his price was at the highest it would be this was obvious @120 odd! Meanwhile SJ also started the year under priced and had just banged out a 160 odd playing pure mid (keep in mind his 1st game was rd 3 too so only 1-2 price moves). Dunno what it was but his BE was next to nothing. Barring injury this trade was a winner no matter what, but clearly Cloke spudding up the next week was a cherry on top.
I think that trading has become more aggressive that much is clear. If you want to win you are gonna need one or two risky moves that pay off for you. I think whether or not Franklin is a keeper is irrelevant going into 2016. What you are looking for imo is to try and place yourself in a position like I was. To do that you need a player who is underpriced going into the season (tick) and who can pump out monster scores (double tick). Ideally he isn't a popular pick (less so Buddy).
Winning SC takes HEAPS of luck that much is clear. Massive ass factor required but my theory is you gotta try find ways to put yourself in a position to capitalise on luck going your way. Thats where the skill lies. Banking keepers and then just trading cash cows up and down is enough to finish very high in the rankings but I doubt it will ever win you the 50k. Something out of the box is required.
Buddy is in and out of my team....i think i said in the fwds thread he was my first picked this year....well he's out right now and perhaps if he becomes more popular conversely will become less likely to return. F4 is the highest I think he'll sit if he makes it back in.
If you are starting buddy it is solely in the hope that he averages 140 odd over the first 5 rounds and quickly becomes your ticket to a goldy up-trade!
btw Tav Cloke looks pretty cheap this year too!
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What do people expect him to average, and across how many games (and why?)?
[I'm aware of his 1H/2H skew, thanks to Rowsus' excellent thread
]
[I'm aware of his 1H/2H skew, thanks to Rowsus' excellent thread
]
On a side note, Buddy's pretty much split the most astute coaches on the site. Doesn't happen very often that's for sure.
Thanks for the insight mate and i reckon alot of ppl will take a little or more than likely a lot out of your post. Your views on taking the big prize will resonate with those who have been in positions to win it all for sure.
I was always thought that the Cloke trade was planned so imo the fact that you traded him out when he was going so well is even more impressive. Most, well i think most would not even consider a trade like that but consistent with your going against the grain philosophy i reckon a few would have jumped on Cloke while you were jumping off!
I was always thought that the Cloke trade was planned so imo the fact that you traded him out when he was going so well is even more impressive. Most, well i think most would not even consider a trade like that but consistent with your going against the grain philosophy i reckon a few would have jumped on Cloke while you were jumping off!
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If Gibbs was traded maybe.
I think the other think about this style of trade is that it is especially suited to forwards who can kick big bags. Not only that but a good forward is 'more likely' to end the previous year on a downer of an average vs their history and by virtue of this fact have less people start them.
I think the other think about this style of trade is that it is especially suited to forwards who can kick big bags. Not only that but a good forward is 'more likely' to end the previous year on a downer of an average vs their history and by virtue of this fact have less people start them.
I was contemplating a downgrade for Gunston, and Cloke was one of the names I've shortlisted (another which fits this mould is Dixon, not quite the history but potential is there if he's over his injuries)...this afforded me an extra MID super premium!
I wholeheartedly agree with the insights provided by Dimma (thanks for sharing). Traversing the straight and narrow path can only get you so far in the rankings, but in order to ascend to the top requires some calculated risks and the SC gods to ride along with you. I speak from my recent experience in the BBL fantasy competition.
I'm adopting the more aggressive approach to my starting team this year, and have tried to make a feel selections based on calculated risks, gut feel and the 'not so obvious' players...balancing this out with 'true' premiums across the lines. I also intend to trade hard right from the go in order to correct or ensure I have all the right Rookie as they are key to building your team.
I wholeheartedly agree with the insights provided by Dimma (thanks for sharing). Traversing the straight and narrow path can only get you so far in the rankings, but in order to ascend to the top requires some calculated risks and the SC gods to ride along with you. I speak from my recent experience in the BBL fantasy competition.
I'm adopting the more aggressive approach to my starting team this year, and have tried to make a feel selections based on calculated risks, gut feel and the 'not so obvious' players...balancing this out with 'true' premiums across the lines. I also intend to trade hard right from the go in order to correct or ensure I have all the right Rookie as they are key to building your team.
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Sounding very positive from Longmire!
Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin back for AFL pre-season after mental health issues
SYDNEY power forward Lance Franklin has taken things up a notch this pre-season and has “bounced back” from the mental health issues that troubled him at the end of last season, his coach says.
It’s been said on several occasions that Franklin, who missed Sydney’s finals campaign due to mental health issues, is training the house down, but his coach said he has stepped up like never before.
“He’s done all the training, and a lot more than he’s done in the last pre-seasons,” Longmire said on SEN today.
“He’s doing all the competitive work. He looks in great nick and is really enjoying it.
“We’ve seen him bounce back in terrific form over the preseason.”
Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin back for AFL pre-season after mental health issues
SYDNEY power forward Lance Franklin has taken things up a notch this pre-season and has “bounced back” from the mental health issues that troubled him at the end of last season, his coach says.
It’s been said on several occasions that Franklin, who missed Sydney’s finals campaign due to mental health issues, is training the house down, but his coach said he has stepped up like never before.
“He’s done all the training, and a lot more than he’s done in the last pre-seasons,” Longmire said on SEN today.
“He’s doing all the competitive work. He looks in great nick and is really enjoying it.
“We’ve seen him bounce back in terrific form over the preseason.”
If I could be a little boring and play devil's advocate, I think this type of move worked brilliantly for Dimma mainly because it was born out of opportunity.
If SJ wasn't ripe for the picking do you remember considering anyone else at the time Dimma? If things had been different do you think Cloke would have stuck around?
I only mention this because I think trying to plan for this type of scenario is really hard to pull off - kind of like the "getting a high priced premo in when they drop" type scenario.
If anyone is picking a Buddy-type stepping stone, I think they need to be prepared to a) be stuck with him or b) potentially trade him out earlier than expected due to his volatility.
If I may, I'd also suggest taking a good look at any potential upgrade targets on advance i.e.: Bennell if he starts slow, so that you have your wits about you at all times.
I like Buddy as a selection either way.
If SJ wasn't ripe for the picking do you remember considering anyone else at the time Dimma? If things had been different do you think Cloke would have stuck around?
I only mention this because I think trying to plan for this type of scenario is really hard to pull off - kind of like the "getting a high priced premo in when they drop" type scenario.
If anyone is picking a Buddy-type stepping stone, I think they need to be prepared to a) be stuck with him or b) potentially trade him out earlier than expected due to his volatility.
If I may, I'd also suggest taking a good look at any potential upgrade targets on advance i.e.: Bennell if he starts slow, so that you have your wits about you at all times.
I like Buddy as a selection either way.
What about Tom Hawkins in this mould?? Went @ 95 in 2012 with plenty of monster scores. Only tonned up 3 times last year which may have had something to do with Clark arriving. Geelong's softish start to the year having Bris, Ess, GC within the first 6 rounds, also throw GWS in there who probably aren't easy beats any more but a big score is a possibility.
Can he do it with Clark in the side? How will Henderson effect him, did they recruit him as a forward? Will have Danger putting it down their throats!
Can he do it with Clark in the side? How will Henderson effect him, did they recruit him as a forward? Will have Danger putting it down their throats!