Opinion Mid-Price Madness: It's a fine line between pleasure and pain

[anfa18]

It's a very interesting subject. It also comes down to how you "value" your trades and how much profit you consider a win.

Lets look at a 300k player:

Averaging 80 - will make about 90k by round 10 and almost be capped out.
Averaging 90 - will make about 135k by round 10 and almost be capped out.
Averaging 100 - will make 150k by round 7 and 180k by round 10.

You can see that a player priced at 300k needs to average like a D5/6 keeper to make 135k profit.

I personally think players like Lonergan and Sheridan should be seen as "keepers" almost no matter what they average. Priced at around 350k, they will either average 90+ and be your D5/6 keeper or force you make a trade valued at under 100k.

 

[Pearcey47]

It's a very interesting subject. It also comes down to how you "value" your trades and how much profit you consider a win.

Lets look at a 300k player:

Averaging 80 - will make about 90k by round 10 and almost be capped out.
Averaging 90 - will make about 135k by round 10 and almost be capped out.
Averaging 100 - will make 150k by round 7 and 180k by round 10.

You can see that a player priced at 300k needs to average like a D5/6 keeper to make 135k profit.

I personally think players like Lonergan and Sheridan should be seen as "keepers" almost no matter what they average. Priced at around 350k, they will either average 90+ and be your D5/6 keeper or force you make a trade valued at under 100k.

I agree to a point. Take Lonergan for example. Rodney Eade has come out and said he will play Swallow's role whilst Swallow is on the sideline, meaning a more mid-based role. Lets say he averages 90 in the first 11 games, and Swallow comes back in round 12. Then on Swallow's return Lonergan averages 70 for the last 11 games, finishing with a season average of 80 - and being seen as a failed pick. But if you traded him after round 11 at a price of say $450K, to lets say Bachar Houli who has struggled to adjust to Yarran in the side and has fallen in price, and then Houli averages 105 in his last 11 games, the initial pick up of Lonergan would be seen to be a success.

There is a fair bit more to think about and consider than just starting price and season average. You have to be flexible as the season progresses to make the best of every opportunity that presents itself.

 

[Bomber18]

It's a very interesting subject. It also comes down to how you "value" your trades and how much profit you consider a win.

Lets look at a 300k player:

Averaging 80 - will make about 90k by round 10 and almost be capped out.
Averaging 90 - will make about 135k by round 10 and almost be capped out.
Averaging 100 - will make 150k by round 7 and 180k by round 10.

You can see that a player priced at 300k needs to average like a D5/6 keeper to make 135k profit.

I personally think players like Lonergan and Sheridan should be seen as "keepers" almost no matter what they average. Priced at around 350k, they will either average 90+ and be your D5/6 keeper or force you make a trade valued at under 100k.

Appreciate your insight as usual.

I think though, if treating these players as "stepping stones" they don't need to average 90 or 100 over 10 rounds, it may be enough to do it for a 5-6 round period to boost their price enough for a side swap.
It doesn't always work out as well as C.Pearce would have last year but let's have a look at how he went.
http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pu-fremantle-dockers--clancee-pearce

Pearce started at 278k and averaged 78 until his Round 12 bye, however at his bye round he was priced at 440k. This is because from Round 5-11 he averaged 97.
Making 160k for a 79 average return is not the worst result, especially considering his added value through using as an extra scoring option through the bye rounds from sideswapping.

Those who kept him after the byes would've been cursing themselves as he ending up missing games through injury, but those who weren't too greedy and side swapped him would've had a great win.

Priced at 283k, I'm considering starting Harwood as this years C.Pearce. Although, no where near locked for me.

 

[t.thomas6]

I agree to a point. Take Lonergan for example. Rodney Eade has come out and said he will play Swallow's role whilst Swallow is on the sideline, meaning a more mid-based role. Lets say he averages 90 in the first 11 games, and Swallow comes back in round 12. Then on Swallow's return Lonergan averages 70 for the last 11 games, finishing with a season average of 80 - and being seen as a failed pick. But if you traded him after round 11 at a price of say $450K, to lets say Bachar Houli who has struggled to adjust to Yarran in the side and has fallen in price, and then Houli averages 105 in his last 11 games, the initial pick up of Lonergan would be seen to be a success.

There is a fair bit more to think about and consider than just starting price and season average. You have to be flexible as the season progresses to make the best of every opportunity that presents itself.

Appreciate your insight as usual.

I think though, if treating these players as "stepping stones" they don't need to average 90 or 100 over 10 rounds, it may be enough to do it for a 5-6 round period to boost their price enough for a side swap.
It doesn't always work out as well as C.Pearce would have last year but let's have a look at how he went.
http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pu-fremantle-dockers--clancee-pearce

Pearce started at 278k and averaged 78 until his Round 12 bye, however at his bye round he was priced at 440k. This is because from Round 5-11 he averaged 97.
Making 160k for a 79 average return is not the worst result, especially considering his added value through using as an extra scoring option through the bye rounds from sideswapping.

Those who kept him after the byes would've been cursing themselves as he ending up missing games through injury, but those who weren't too greedy and side swapped him would've had a great win.

Priced at 283k, I'm considering starting Harwood as this years C.Pearce. Although, no where near locked for me.

Love all your work guys! Spot on.

Let's look at this simply taking $$$ out of the equation. Take Sheridan for example:

Scenario 1: has a rubbish first 3 rounds and is set for either a price drop or nothing at all - you can trade down to a similarly scoring rookie/a rookie on the bubble (cut your losses) or ride it out.

Scenario 2: Averages enough to fit the scenarios outlined above - you trade him to a slightly fallen premium and 1) hope the premium ups his game and 2) that Sheridan doesn't improve = limiting the rish via a proven scorer.

Scenario 3: Sheridan goes into full on breakout mode (see D. Swallow - 2014?) and becomes a keeper. You save a trade (or 2) which you can use elsewhere for any other stuff up/injury/suspension.

Given the lower difference in DEF scoring, it seems the best bet to take a Gamble on this line. If it fails...what's the worst case scenario? Scenario 1 (Part 1). You get another cash cow

It's when you add another mid-pricer to the equation that it can potentially get REALLY messy.

#my2cents

 

[Pearcey47]

Agree with all of the above. Absolute worst case scenario is the player gets dropped, and there is no decent rookie options (or no rookies at all) to trade down too. Thats a lot of money sitting on the bench.

The other thing to think about is would the extra cash used from a rookie to a mid-pricer be better utilised elsewhere?

It's impossible to come to a definite answer as there are so many variables. Makes for a great discussion though.

 

[Bomber18]

Love all your work guys! Spot on.

Let's look at this simply taking $$$ out of the equation. Take Sheridan for example:

Scenario 1: has a rubbish first 3 rounds and is set for either a price drop or nothing at all - you can trade down to a similarly scoring rookie/a rookie on the bubble (cut your losses) or ride it out.

Scenario 2: Averages enough to fit the scenarios outlined above - you trade him to a slightly fallen premium and 1) hope the premium ups his game and 2) that Sheridan doesn't improve = limiting the rish via a proven scorer.

Scenario 3: Sheridan goes into full on breakout mode (see D. Swallow - 2014?) and becomes a keeper. You save a trade (or 2) which you can use elsewhere for any other stuff up/injury/suspension.

Given the lower difference in DEF scoring, it seems the best bet to take a Gamble on this line. If it fails...what's the worst case scenario? Scenario 1 (Part 1). You get another cash cow

It's when you add another mid-pricer to the equation that it can potentially get REALLY messy.

#my2cents

Great points.

Considering what Yeo, Kade Kolo and C.Pearce did last year, I'd like to add Scenario 4 averages rubbish in the first 3-4 rounds so you cut your losses. THEN from Round 5 goes into full breakout mode and averages 95+.
Which brings us back to the title: Mid price madness, it's a fine line between pleasure and pain

 

[anfa18]

Really love this chat, it's really interesting seeing other perspectives. I'm somewhat of a pessimist which probably shows in some of my posts, including this one.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Great points.

Considering what Yeo, Kade Kolo and C.Pearce did last year, I'd like to add Scenario 4 averages rubbish in the first 3-4 rounds so you cut your losses. THEN from Round 5 goes into full breakout mode and averages 95+.
Which brings us back to the title: Mid price madness, it's a fine line between pleasure and pain

Scenario 4 sounds just like Newnes last year. I lost patience with him and traded him out. The week I traded him out he still sucked and I was gloating to anybody that would listen to me. From the very next round onwards he began to score well and I have hated him ever since.

 

[THCLT]

Thanks Johnsy44 for bumping this thread...

Great to see and read some robust and constructive discussions being had and I commend you all for respecting other members opinions and point of views! (Y)

I think Pearcey47 summed it up best in his last post...

It's impossible to come to a definite answer as there are so many variables. Makes for a great discussion though.

I'd love to chime into the discussion but I've got a pounding headache ATM so I'll have to refrain. As the title of this thread suggests, 'It's a fine line between pleasure and pain', and I'm definitely on the side of pain!

 

[freowho]

Thanks Johnsy44 for bumping this thread...

Great to see and read some robust and constructive discussions being had and I commend you all for respecting other members opinions and point of views! (Y)

I think Pearcey47 summed it up best in his last post...



I'd love to chime into the discussion but I've got a pounding headache ATM so I'll have to refrain. As the title of this thread suggests, 'It's a fine line between pleasure and pain', and I'm definitely on the side of pain!

Was that the Asahi, Kirin, Sapporo or the other one or two?

 

[THCLT]

Was that the Asahi, Kirin, Sapporo or the other one or two?

I had the Kirin but that's not the cause of my pain...

 

[Junior Wölf]

Is it too risky to go both Lonergan AND Sheridan at D3 + D4?

 

[Pearcey47]

Is it too risky to go both Lonergan AND Sheridan at D3 + D4?

Based on discussion above I would say yes.

 

[THCLT]

It's when you add another mid-pricer to the equation that it can potentially get REALLY messy.

#my2cents

What if you add another 2 or 3 mid-pricer...?

#saygoodbyetoSC2016

 

[t.thomas6]

What if you add another 2 or 3 mid-pricer...?

#saygoodbyetoSC2016

Is it too risky to go both Lonergan AND Sheridan at D3 + D4?

#caseinpoint

 

[Blaze]

Very interesting discussion!

I want 12 bomb proof premos in my team so that leaves 18 "mid pricer, rookie, or other" all of these including mid pricers are tradeable. They certainly don't have to be keepers (more stepping stones) I use 12 as then there are 20 up down trades to full premium, 8 for LTI and 2 for round 3 correction.

So for eg 12 + de goey, libba, sheridan, wells and rookies. You pick these guys for value, role, upside. If they do it all year great, if they do it to the byes or go on a big run then you can hopefully side swap for an underpriced premo, if they bust then you correct down for a rookie with upside or on the bubble.

 

[t.thomas6]

Very interesting discussion!

I want 12 bomb proof premos in my team so that leaves 18 "mid pricer, rookie, or other" all of these including mid pricers are tradeable. They certainly don't have to be keepers (more stepping stones) I use 12 as then there are 20 up down trades to full premium, 8 for LTI and 2 for round 3 correction.

So for eg 12 + de goey, libba, sheridan, wells and rookies. You pick these guys for value, role, upside. If they do it all year great, if they do it to the byes or go on a big run then you can hopefully side swap for an underpriced premo, if they bust then you correct down for a rookie with upside or on the bubble.

I guess as long as you don't pick to many speculative or potential breakout picks and make sure you have a plan to "stop the bleeding" if it goes south, then why not have a gamble on some value? There's a hell of a lot of luck in this game.

 

[Aenimist]

I love this article KLO and keep coming back to it - thank you!

I'm looking at my two $200k picks in Oliver and Mills, and based on your tables I am worried they will not generate the required cash (by averaging 80-90). Hence I am seriously considering correcting one of them this week - which would help me go Barlow to an ultra-premo.

Having 2 x $200K players was always a risk, and I still think they could both work out, but based on their current averages below 70 (small sample size I know) they are not going to generate the maximum amount of cash as outlined in this article.

As a Dees supporter, I think Oliver is likely to get rested, and will rarely play 4 quarters in a game - which will affect his ceiling. Mills is probably the more likely to hit 80, but he also may not.

Does anyone else have the luxury of trading one of these guys out early?

 

[Ricky Bobby]

^^ I have Mills and am considering trading him to a cheap Bubble boy in the next week or two (depending on performance and availability)

 

[KLo30]

2020

• Pictures fixed: Replace Photobucket hidden behind trademark
• ' & " : back to normal instead of code

Thanks @Manikato1 for alerting me to the issues.