Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hello Rowsus.
Thank you for your mighty efforts! Any thoughts on Trent McKenzie as a speculative backline pick? Or would Weitering be a safer selection as a high priced rookie?

Hello Cattleherder, you're welcome!
McKenzie seemed to lose favour with the Coach a bit last season, and his scores have gone backwards the last 2 seasons. He was dropped for drinking and a general bad attitude in 2015. While he can potentially bounce back, keep in mind his NAB scores seemed high for his disposal numbers (ave 18.5 Disp, at 82% DE, for 122 SC), and I can't see him maintaining his DE% or his SC/disposal ratio going into the season. Weitering is one I'm not starting. Tall Defs can struggle in SC terms, and the last thing you want, in general, is a tall Def, expensive Rookie, playing for a bottom 2 or 3 team. He may prove me wrong, but I'll take that chance!

 

[Rowsus]

I've been looking at your analysis of 2015 and got to Robinson (Lions). Now that Beams is listed as out indefinitely, could Robo become an option?

Robinson definitely looms as a potential good pick, with the news on Beams. You wouldn't consider him if he was Mid only, but he's not, so sitting him in the Fwd line is a definite option. I have a feeling tacklers might get rewarded this season, if the trend from the NAB continues, and Robinson was a tackling beast last season!

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus, I know you have looked at this before but can you refresh my memory, WHICH LIONS PLAYER BENEFITS MOST from Beams going down?

siwel,
that would be Robinson and Zorko, here's a quick break up.

Robinson: 21/92.6 - No Beams 6/123.8, No Rocky 7/83.4, No Rocky or Beams 13/102.1

Zorko: 22/100.6 - No Beams 6/118.0, No Rocky 7/100.3, No Rocky or Beams 13/108.5

 

[TeeButOne]

TBO,
he averaged 13 disposals at 88% DE in his 2 NAB games. That was from an average 68% TOG and produced an average 75 SC. Not great, but not terrible.
I was hoping for something a bit better, but it was only the NAB, so things can change!

Thanks Rowsus.

I would imagine it would have something to do with Heath Shaw being let off the chain over the NAB ... there's no way he'll be left that unchecked in the regular season, so presumably Williams will get more into the game. Still in my team. Thanks for the assistance.

 

[Rowsus]

hi row

i hope you are excited about the season starting soon. i read in one of your earlier post's about sam greys and your opinion in relation to being a good sc pick. It seems that he will be playing in the midfield. do you think he is a good starting pick? what do you expect him to avg and do you think he can be a top 8 forward?

Hi Ad,
I'm not known for my patience, and rather than get excited around now, I just get annoyed. Can't we just start already!!!
S Gray is certainly looking like a good pick. He was the T Mitchell of the SANFL in 2014, gathering the most possessions, but just couldn't get a regular AFL game. He was definitely playing Mid then, but only got small Fwd roles in his infrequent AFL appearances. Just like T Mitchell, it looks like he has graduated, and will finally play his preferred on-ball role, at AFL level.
He's currently in my team, and while I'm hoping for low 100's, I'm expecting mid to high 90's, and a top 8 - 10 Fwd finish.

 

[Jordan]

I have a feeling tacklers might get rewarded this season, if the trend from the NAB continues, and Robinson was a tackling beast last season!

Hey Rowsus hope you're well. Have you noticed any trends in the NAB scoring for tackles or just a hunch? Keen to hear your thoughts

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus hope you're well. Have you noticed any trends in the NAB scoring for tackles or just a hunch? Keen to hear your thoughts

Hey Jordan, I'm well thanks, and I hope you are too.
During the NAB there were 355 players play at least on game, that are priced at $300k+ in SC.
55 of those 355 players averaged 100+ in the NAB.
15 of those 55 players averaged 5 tackles/game, or higher.
The average number of Tackles laid per player, per game last season was 2.97.
There were only 4 players under $300k to average 100+ in the NAB (Kerridge, Menzel, Wells, Hewett), and they averaged 4.4 Tackles/game.

It stemmed more from observation, and how quick the umpires pinged players in the NAB.

 

[30BucketsofRo]

To be honest, it's not a question that interests me enough, to spend the hours and hours of work it would take to answer. It doesn't seem to have enough historical or statistical relevance to matter that much.
Here's a partial answer.
In 2015 665 players played at least one game. Here is how many from each Club that achieved it across the 2015 season.
Adelaide 11
Brisbane 9
Carlton 15
Collingwood 12
Essendon 18
Fremantle 14
Geelong 12
Gold Coast 16
GWS 13
Hawthorn 15
Melbourne 15
North 11
Port Adelaide 13
Richmond 10
St Kilda 11
Sydney 11
WC 10
W Bulldogs 17
That a total of 233 players, or 35% of all players that played a game in 2015.

Thanks for your efforts, Rowsus. This is more than enough

 

[thommus]

Gday mate
I noticed your 2015 season analysis of Priddis points towards FTB status. Was wondering if this is a trend that is evident in his past few seasons as well, paricularly 2014. Any light you could shed would be much appreciated! Cheers mate

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Row,

I am struggling to find defenders that I am happy with and I still have my doubts over Bartel playing enough games, but there also arent many rookies that I am keen on either. As a pricier option, what would someone like Daniel Howe ($265,800) need to average to be considered a good pick?

Thanks!

 

[Adrenaline]

Hi Ad,
I'm not known for my patience, and rather than get excited around now, I just get annoyed. Can't we just start already!!!
S Gray is certainly looking like a good pick. He was the T Mitchell of the SANFL in 2014, gathering the most possessions, but just couldn't get a regular AFL game. He was definitely playing Mid then, but only got small Fwd roles in his infrequent AFL appearances. Just like T Mitchell, it looks like he has graduated, and will finally play his preferred on-ball role, at AFL level.
He's currently in my team, and while I'm hoping for low 100's, I'm expecting mid to high 90's, and a top 8 - 10 Fwd finish.

thanks rowsus for your advice. i am having difficult choosing between grey and hall. i know your pretty keen on hall. i was wondering what do you expect hall to average this year? do you think he has better midfield security than grey and who would you pick if you had to choose 1? who is the safest pick?

 

[thommus]

Hey mate
How does Hannebery go at the SCG compared to ANZ? Cheers

 

[siwel]

siwel,
that would be Robinson and Zorko, her's a quick break up.

Robinson: 21/92.6 - No Beams 6/123.8, No Rocky 7/83.4, No Rocky or Beams 13/102.1

Zorko: 22/100.6 - No Beams 6/118.0, No Rocky 7/100.3, No Rocky or Beams 13/108.5

Is it worth gettng Zorko then? Due to the inj unlikely to be for more then 6 weeks

 

[Pearcey47]

Is it worth gettng Zorko then? Due to the inj unlikely to be for more then 6 weeks

He is suspended for Round 1 which makes it tough.

 

[Mudflap]

Rowsus thanks for answering my previous questions.

I would like to settle on a ruck strategy but I am all over the place. I have two more ruck questions and am hoping that the answers you provide can steer me in the right direction.

1 - I have read your comments about tackles and free kicks (umpires seem to be paying free kicks much quicker) and was curious to know if you think that along with the new enforcement of the deliberate out of bounds rule this may lead to a big drop off in stoppages (and opportunities for hit outs to advantage)?

2- Which of the premium rucks score the biggest percentage of their overall points from hit outs?


* Just read this in an article so thought I would add it in.

Campbell says this improvement can be seen by comparing the results of NAB round four to the average of last year’s premiership season.

“The general charter for the laws of the game is to open the game up to have less stoppages not no stoppages, but less stoppages.”

“There was 10 less ball-ups and there was three less boundary throw-ins (compared to 2015). But you’re talking sort of 13 or 14 less stoppages over a game which is probably, you know it’s a good sign.


Read more at http://www.sen.com.au/news/afl/03-16/wayne-campbell-10m-area-improving-flow#2UTjXVJUw0zJftZY.99

 

[Drew]

Hi Rowsus, hope you're travelling well. Any thoughts on Matt Crouch? Has looked pretty good this preseason, seems to be filling part of the void Dangerfield has left, is he worth a shot in SC?

 

[Courtesans]

Thanks for all you have done Rowan. Amazes me how much work you put in.

 

[siwel]

He is suspended for Round 1 which makes it tough.

Good from you!!! Didnt know that

 

[Manikato1]

Hi Man1, RB.
Your sense is spot on. It is generally easier to get $200k growth out of a cheaper, $117k Rookie, than it is from a $200k Rookie. Yes there are Cripps types that do it, but remember, they need to average nearly 20/game higher to get the same growth. The effect is actually two-fold. Having more expensive Rookies slows the dollar generation a little, AND means you probably need to make one more upgrade than normal. Usually a pure G'n'R team will have 13 or if you are lucky, 14 Keeper/Prem types, without the value picks. If you are picking more expensive Rookies, this reduces to 12 or 13 Keeper/Prems. Double Whammy! You need more Cash, to make one more upgrade, and you are making your cash a little slower. The balancing act of upgrading as quick as you can, but making as much as you can on your Cows becomes even harder this year. I think it might be prudent to squeeze an extra week, and an extra $10-$20k out of your Cows, where possible. Compounding this, is the number of $270 - $370k players people are squeezing into their teams, in the hope of either alleviating the number of upgrades required, or at best making them a one rookie downgrade used to upgrade 2 Midprice picks (across two weeks outside of the byes, of course). I have a general rule of thumb, that value picks in your team need about a 60% success strike rate, or you have lost on them. Given it looks like most teams might struggle to reach the value growth we have seen in previous season, you might need a 70-75% strike rate on value picks this season! I can tell you, that is nearly impossible to achieve!
I think this years Winner will, apart from dodging the bad Premium picks, nail his Rookies by Round 3, and will in all likelihood nail around 3 value picks, that he got to use as season Keepers.

Hi Rowsus

Thanks for your time to answer. I will be interested to see if the extra $ rookies actually translate into a better selection rate. That is there is always a percentage of rookies that look the goods in NAB/preseason but don't go on with it for what ever reasons. Will our higher priced selections produce a higher strike rate of good rookies? I guess we will see. Strangely enough it might be a lesser of two evils. If they turn out to be goers it will be a slow burn upgrade process. If too many of them turn out to be duds it might be trade city as coaches burn early trades to get out of expensive under performing rookies to move into cheaper performing ones. Of course the perfect storm would be not only do a heap of the expensive rookies turn out to be failures but there are no cheap rookies to easily replace them!

 

[Rowsus]

Gday mate
I noticed your 2015 season analysis of Priddis points towards FTB status. Was wondering if this is a trend that is evident in his past few seasons as well, paricularly 2014. Any light you could shed would be much appreciated! Cheers mate

'day mate,
to be fair to Priddis it was more evident last season, than in the seasons leading up to 2015. In 2014 he scored approximately 8% higher against the bottom few teams, than he did against the middle rung. He's certainly not entirely dependant on opposition to score well.