Opinion SC Gold - Most Popular Players

[stephen]

****e, have all 10 for now.

Shaw makes no sense and so much sense at the same time.

It's more likely my own ignorance than anything else, but I genuinely don't see how Shaw will be a good pick. Given his role is well-established, the best possible scenario is he keeps it up and scores at the same level as last season. Even if he does that, and throws in no stinkers, his price settles to about 550k and is an easily accessible upgrade target for those who started without him, who won't be any worse off points-wise if they spent their money well elsewhere.

Then take into account that his last season was 20 points per game better than his previous, and was his first season for eight years playing every game, and that until that one season he was regarded as notorious for missing games and throwing in low scores here and there. I think it's far more likely he's available for a lot cheaper, and those without him have a large advantage as their money was better spent.

Seems like a classic no upside/large downside risk to me. What am I missing?

 

[Hondo]

It's more likely my own ignorance than anything else, but I genuinely don't see how Shaw will be a good pick. Given his role is well-established, the best possible scenario is he keeps it up and scores at the same level as last season. Even if he does that, and throws in no stinkers, his price settles to about 550k and is an easily accessible upgrade target for those who started without him, who won't be any worse off points-wise if they spent their money well elsewhere.

Then take into account that his last season was 20 points per game better than his previous, and was his first season for eight years playing every game, and that until that one season he was regarded as notorious for missing games and throwing in low scores here and there. I think it's far more likely he's available for a lot cheaper, and those without him have a large advantage as their money was better spent.

Seems like a classic no upside/large downside risk to me. What am I missing?

Getting a rookie defender cash cow up to $550k is big step in most cases unless we get another Oxley or Langdon. This year I am not seeing another Langdon but maybe one turns up.

On the point about behaviour problems causing him to lose his brain etc I think we can have some confidence that he is past those issues and away from the influences that lead him off the path.

Final point is he is looking once again like being 15-20 ppg better than any other defender with the ability to post massive scores unlike most alternatives in defence. Fine to say you get him cheaper and you make up the points but you really need to nail the alternative picks from the start.

 

[Bomber18]

It's more likely my own ignorance than anything else, but I genuinely don't see how Shaw will be a good pick. Given his role is well-established, the best possible scenario is he keeps it up and scores at the same level as last season. Even if he does that, and throws in no stinkers, his price settles to about 550k and is an easily accessible upgrade target for those who started without him, who won't be any worse off points-wise if they spent their money well elsewhere.

Then take into account that his last season was 20 points per game better than his previous, and was his first season for eight years playing every game, and that until that one season he was regarded as notorious for missing games and throwing in low scores here and there. I think it's far more likely he's available for a lot cheaper, and those without him have a large advantage as their money was better spent.

Seems like a classic no upside/large downside risk to me. What am I missing?

Agree with all of this, and I will add, he's now 30+ which historically adds more of a likely hood of missing games, particularly as Shaw has a soft tissue injury history.

Everyone starting him is paying 113 for a 100-105 player. I don't buy that he'll average 110+ again, the NABs don't mean anything as there is little pressure in these games.
The argument that "he'll average 100+ so will be a Top 1-3 defender so you may as well start him" isn't necessarily the best school of thought.
If he averages 100, you've lost 13 ppg on your investment, whereas that's what I've gained as I invested that money better elsewhere and can trade him in when he's cheaper.
If he averages 110, well done, you got what you paid for, but I still have invested my money elsewhere and can trade him in when my rookies have matured.
I see 0 upside in starting him.

 

[Nathan]

Getting a rookie defender cash cow up to $550k is big step in most cases unless we get another Oxley or Langdon. This year I am not seeing another Langdon but maybe one turns up.

On the point about behaviour problems causing him to lose his brain etc I think we can have some confidence that he is past those issues and away from the influences that lead him off the path.

Final point is he is looking once again like being 15-20 ppg better than any other defender with the ability to post massive scores unlike most alternatives in defence. Fine to say you get him cheaper and you make up the points but you really need to nail the alternative picks from the start.

When has he ever done this?

 

[Pearcey47]

6 of the top 10 for me.

Also found it interesting that 0 of my 4 'premium' defenders are in the top 10 defenders at this stage.

 

[johno686]

When has he ever done this?

Last year

 

[BigRuss]

Last year

Wasn't Hodge defence last year?

 

[Rowsus]

Getting a rookie defender cash cow up to $550k is big step in most cases unless we get another Oxley or Langdon. This year I am not seeing another Langdon but maybe one turns up.

On the point about behaviour problems causing him to lose his brain etc I think we can have some confidence that he is past those issues and away from the influences that lead him off the path.

Final point is he is looking once again like being 15-20 ppg better than any other defender with the ability to post massive scores unlike most alternatives in defence. Fine to say you get him cheaper and you make up the points but you really need to nail the alternative picks from the start.

When has he ever done this?

Wasn't Hodge defence last year?

I really like reading your posts, Hondo. Level headed, well thought out, and usually very accurate.
However Shaw has never finished 15 in front of the next best Def. Last season was:
Shaw 112, Hodge 108, Picken 99, Rance 97, with another 7 players stretching down to 92.
You might say Hodge and Picken are gone from the Defs, and that leaves him 15 in front of Rance, but the fact is, he didn't finish 15 in front of the next best Def, and with the likes of McVeigh and Boyd in there this season, I am willing to bet my house he won't this season either!

 

[Savvy90]

Oh dear. Normally I wouldn't dare to cross Rowsus statistically but I must speak up in Hondo's defence!

Total scores: Defenders 2015

1: H Shaw 2478
2: A Rance 2135
3:T Mcdonald 2110
4: B Houli 2104

others:
McVeigh 2011
Boyd 1871
Hodge 1840

Pts Difference between Shaw and next best = 2478 - 2135 = 343
Ave diff over season = 15.59 pts per game.

So.....Hondo was telling the truth..............from a certain point of view!

 

[anfa18]

Oh dear. Normally I wouldn't dare to cross Rowsus statistically but I must speak up in Hondo's defence!

Total scores: Defenders 2015

1: H Shaw 2478
2: A Rance 2135
3:T Mcdonald 2110
4: B Houli 2104

others:
McVeigh 2011
Boyd 1871
Hodge 1840

Pts Difference between Shaw and next best = 2478 - 2135 = 343
Ave diff over season = 15.59 pts per game.

So.....Hondo was telling the truth..............from a certain point of view!

The only thing i took away from that summary is that i know too much about Star Wars

 

[Rowsus]

Oh dear. Normally I wouldn't dare to cross Rowsus statistically but I must speak up in Hondo's defence!

Total scores: Defenders 2015

1: H Shaw 2478
2: A Rance 2135
3:T Mcdonald 2110
4: B Houli 2104

others:
McVeigh 2011
Boyd 1871
Hodge 1840

Pts Difference between Shaw and next best = 2478 - 2135 = 343
Ave diff over season = 15.59 pts per game.

So.....Hondo was telling the truth..............from a certain point of view!

I don't mind people crossing me, or disagreeing with me, but that isn't how Hondo's post was worded.

Final point is he is looking once again like being 15-20 ppg better than any other defender ....

He was talking averages, not aggregates. There was also no mention of comparing aggregates back to a difference per week.

 

[Eggsbenedict]

There is no doubt in my mind that shaw will not score 112 this year, but he is likely to score 100-105. Which makes him a top defender that does not need upgrading if I start him. I would happily save on this overspend if I had a lot of confidence in other value defenders reaching 95-100points. The only ones I would be comfortable in are McVeigh and Boyd but neither are that much cheaper or without the same level of risk as shaw.

 

[Savvy90]

I don't mind people crossing me, or disagreeing with me, but that isn't how Hondo's post was worded.



He was talking averages, not aggregates. There was also no mention of comparing aggregates back to a difference per week.

Its all good.

I think we can all agree conclusively that Return of the Jedi was the worst original Star Wars Movie.

 

[Bomber18]

Wells 51% wow goddamn. Weitering at 40% too. Cripps over 10%.

 

[Hondo]

I really like reading your posts, Hondo. Level headed, well thought out, and usually very accurate.
However Shaw has never finished 15 in front of the next best Def. Last season was:
Shaw 112, Hodge 108, Picken 99, Rance 97, with another 7 players stretching down to 92.
You might say Hodge and Picken are gone from the Defs, and that leaves him 15 in front of Rance, but the fact is, he didn't finish 15 in front of the next best Def, and with the likes of McVeigh and Boyd in there this season, I am willing to bet my house he won't this season either!

I am saying this year with the guys available to pick from the start he looks to be well ahead of anyone else bar as you say McVeigh and Boyd. McVeigh not starting so you can't pick him. Boyd yes could get closer fair enough but I've hardly seen him in any teams.

I can't see any of our $500k options stepping up to 110. As you say take out Hodge and Picken and none of last year's batch were within 15. He's a huge outlier esp in defence delivering midfield premium scores.

 

[Rowsus]

I am saying this year with the guys available to pick from the start he looks to be well ahead of anyone else bar as you say McVeigh and Boyd. McVeigh not starting so you can't pick him. Boyd yes could get closer fair enough but I've hardly seen him in any teams.

I can't see any of our $500k options stepping up to 110. As you say take out Hodge and Picken and none of last year's batch were within 15. He's a huge outlier esp in defence delivering midfield premium scores.

Will he continue in that mode though?
Given his history, and SC's history, it would seem more likely he will regress to somewhere around 103 - 108, than continue at 110+.
Until further evidence, I believe it needs to considered an outlier season, or a spike season, last year.

 

[Torress]

I keep sneaking shaw into my side, however i seem to ditch him every time i shuffle some premiums around!
I wont start him personally, it really is too much for a defender. If it were goddard in his prime at a premiership stkilda id probably lock him in for Shaw's price!
Im going to end up taking a few risks with some hopefully underpriced backs, shaw takes the spot of a top tier midfielder and without him i get to 14-15 solid potential keepers.

Cripps over 10% ownership! Dammit!

 

[THCLT]

6 out of 10 for me currently from Ben's list.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

New number 1 for the non-rookie priced players!

Wells is now number 1 after overtaking Libba by a lot sitting at 56.8% ownership to Libba's 53.7%.

 

[PC]

Coaches Award Nominations
ROUND ONE IS HERE! - 26/3/16

Def
1 Brown M (Ess) - 57%
2 Weitering - 52%
3 AMT - 47%
4 Shaw - 39%
5 Dea - 37%
6 Adams - 37%
7 Hartley - 23%
8 Rich - 18%
9 Laird - 15%
10 Rance - 15%

Rookies are the name of the game now! Over 50% of players owning Brown (Ess) and that expensive first year Blues player... AMT very popular, as well as Adams and Dea - interestingly, even though Hartley wasn't named, 23% kept him - I expect that could be either lack of funds or lack of time. SCS favourite Laird into the top 10 at 15%, while SCS discussion point Shaw in 39% of teams - man that is going to hurt if he gets on a roll early...

Mid
1 Danger - 53%
2 Libba - 53%
3 Mills - 49%
4 Ablett - 45%
5 Fyfe - 41%
6 Davis - 38%
7 Rocky - 33%
8 Oliver - 26%
9 Pendles - 24%
10 Gresham - 21%

Mids as you would expect with the lack of choice in the rookies - plenty choosing the one of the big 5, and Libba still popular. Starting team mids this year will be very same same I feel.

Ruc
1 OldGrimey - 32%
2 Goldy - 30%
3 Gawn - 26%
4 Cox M - 23%
5 NicNat - 20%
6 Martin - 13%
7 Lobbe - 13%
8 Blicavs - 11%
9 Currie - 10%
10 Smith - 9%

If the mids are same same, the rucks are not. FEAR THE BEARD moves to third most popular (BB you are a trendsetter), Cox flops to 4th (sorry, couldn't resist). No ruck in more than a third of teams, in fact only 2 premium choices in more than a quarter of teams. As every year, rucks will make and break.

Fwd
1 Kerridge - 67%
2 WellStep? - 60%
3 Chopsticks - 40%
4 Menadue - 39%
5 Barlow - 37%
6 PetRocka - 36%
7 BenKen - 34%
8 Buddy - 22%
9 Hall - 21%
10 De Goey - 18%

Forwards seems to be the place where most understand who they want - the two most popular players are found in Kerridge and Wells in this line. PetRocka in a third of teams (personally, I don't understand this - Roos is not overly fond of the kid at the moment - as he likes basketball or something?). Happy to see Chopsticks in 40% of teams but not in mine after his round 1 score. Buddy and Hall two riskier picks rounding out the top 10.

OP in the thread updated as well. Enjoy