incog43, I think Wilson is borderline best 22, and probably borderline to score well enough to be a good pick. You probably need him to average low 80's to be a break even pick. My suspiscions on Williams best 22 status were confirmed in the NAB, and I'm not sure Wilson is that much higher up the pecking order!
Opinion Questions For Rowsus
- Thread starter Rowsus
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Congratulations on your great start! 
You started without Libba for considered reasons, and while it is really hard to ignore that one game, it is still just that, one game. In exceptional circumstances. As for downgrading Pendles, I wouldn't do it if you think there is even a chance you'd want to get him back in again later. Seeing as you started him, it would seem that you might want him later. We that didn't take Libba knew he'd post some good scores at some stage, we were just hoping it wouldn't be Round 1. JJ too, is "just one game". He is an unknown factor, when the pressure is applied. Will he wilt, and become a mid 80's trap player? We just don't know. I'd stick with your plan for now, and hold your trades.
Good luck.
You started without Libba for considered reasons, and while it is really hard to ignore that one game, it is still just that, one game. In exceptional circumstances. As for downgrading Pendles, I wouldn't do it if you think there is even a chance you'd want to get him back in again later. Seeing as you started him, it would seem that you might want him later. We that didn't take Libba knew he'd post some good scores at some stage, we were just hoping it wouldn't be Round 1. JJ too, is "just one game". He is an unknown factor, when the pressure is applied. Will he wilt, and become a mid 80's trap player? We just don't know. I'd stick with your plan for now, and hold your trades.
Good luck.
Hey Rowsus,
A couple of supercoach bets have really caught my eye this week.
1. Scott Pendlebury to beat 109.5 at $1.87
2. Tom Mitchell to beat Jack lloyd, Lance Franklin, Sam Docherty, Sam Kerridge, Zach Touhy, Matthew Kreuzer and Isaac Heeney at $3.00
3. Heath Shaw under 108.5 at $1.87/Patrick Cripps over 97.5 at $1.75
What do you think?
A couple of supercoach bets have really caught my eye this week.
1. Scott Pendlebury to beat 109.5 at $1.87
2. Tom Mitchell to beat Jack lloyd, Lance Franklin, Sam Docherty, Sam Kerridge, Zach Touhy, Matthew Kreuzer and Isaac Heeney at $3.00
3. Heath Shaw under 108.5 at $1.87/Patrick Cripps over 97.5 at $1.75
What do you think?
Has only passed that score in 5 out of 11 games, in the last 4.01 seasons when Swan is out of the team, and is rumoured to be playing with cracked ribs. I would want something closer to, or over $3.00
Probably close to the mark, or just over the odds. Might be worth a small nibble.
Shaw scores higher in losses than wins, I would probably leave that one alone. Cripps probably gets there, but I wouldn't take those odds. His scores against the best teams last season topped out at 91 against Sydney, and 82 against Freo.
Now you know
Probably close to the mark, or just over the odds. Might be worth a small nibble.
Shaw scores higher in losses than wins, I would probably leave that one alone. Cripps probably gets there, but I wouldn't take those odds. His scores against the best teams last season topped out at 91 against Sydney, and 82 against Freo.
Now you know
No doubt Rowsus will have a view of his own Prochard, but I thought I'd flag this link in case you/others hadn't seen it. It shows SC scores by opponent in a very convenient format:
http://www.fanfooty.com.au/players/opponentsc.php?firstname=Scott&surname=Pendlebury
This sort of data is obviously very useful in identifying good VC and/or C picks as well.
History is probably against the Pendles and Shaw bets. Normally I would be confident of Pendles bouncing back this week, although there is some discussion that he may be injured, and his record against Richmond is his worst against any team.
Good luck whichever way you go.
Edit: looks like Buddy has six straight tons against Carlton, including three at 130+.
I also note that Rowsus did indeed have his own view
http://www.fanfooty.com.au/players/opponentsc.php?firstname=Scott&surname=Pendlebury
This sort of data is obviously very useful in identifying good VC and/or C picks as well.
History is probably against the Pendles and Shaw bets. Normally I would be confident of Pendles bouncing back this week, although there is some discussion that he may be injured, and his record against Richmond is his worst against any team.
Good luck whichever way you go.
Edit: looks like Buddy has six straight tons against Carlton, including three at 130+.
I also note that Rowsus did indeed have his own view
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Has only passed that score in 5 out of 11 games, in the last 4.01 seasons when Swan is out of the team, and is rumoured to be playing with cracked ribs. I would want something closer to, or over $3.00
Probably close to the mark, or just over the odds. Might be worth a small nibble.
Shaw scores higher in losses than wins, I would probably leave that one alone. Cripps probably gets there, but I wouldn't take those odds. His scores against the best teams last season topped out at 91 against Sydney, and 82 against Freo.
Now you know
Probably close to the mark, or just over the odds. Might be worth a small nibble.
Shaw scores higher in losses than wins, I would probably leave that one alone. Cripps probably gets there, but I wouldn't take those odds. His scores against the best teams last season topped out at 91 against Sydney, and 82 against Freo.
Now you know
If I was forced to pick one or the other, yes. Neither look like enticing bets to me.
If the bookie was betting:
Pendlebury 114+ $2
Pendlebury 105- $2
You probably wouldn't bet, as you'd think there's a fair chance he falls in the gap. At those odds and points, it's about the same proposition. The other point is, you were willing to take odds on the overs, it would seem to push it to no bet territory, if you suddenly want to take odds on the unders.
I would only bet where you have an advantage, especially at such cramped odds.
If the bookie was betting:
Pendlebury 114+ $2
Pendlebury 105- $2
You probably wouldn't bet, as you'd think there's a fair chance he falls in the gap. At those odds and points, it's about the same proposition. The other point is, you were willing to take odds on the overs, it would seem to push it to no bet territory, if you suddenly want to take odds on the unders.
I would only bet where you have an advantage, especially at such cramped odds.
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Hey Rowsus,
Do we look at Papley? Only one game so I should I guess sit tight for this week.
Started with a respectable 2247 but a voice in my head is telling me to offload M.Brown for Papley.
Think I grabbed Brown to open up def/fwd link with Adams and/or Tippa.
Hopefully I wake up tomorrow and bump my head clear so I do not trade this week. But if he goes alright against us (Carlton) this week I may have to get him.
The other issue I have is McGovern. Didn't see his injury but did he look restricted when he came back on ?
Do we look at Papley? Only one game so I should I guess sit tight for this week.
Started with a respectable 2247 but a voice in my head is telling me to offload M.Brown for Papley.
Think I grabbed Brown to open up def/fwd link with Adams and/or Tippa.
Hopefully I wake up tomorrow and bump my head clear so I do not trade this week. But if he goes alright against us (Carlton) this week I may have to get him.
The other issue I have is McGovern. Didn't see his injury but did he look restricted when he came back on ?
Hey Slammer,
I would think the only excuse to go Brown to Papley this week, is if you are nearly sure you will need both trades next week for other corrections. Even if he scores ok this week, he's no certainty to get picked in Round 3! Remember the Laidler "incident" from 2014, where he was top scorer for Sydney in Round 1, and dropped for Round 2!!! So even if he scores an 80 or whatever, I wouldn't be kicking yourself until at least next Thursday!
McGovern seemed to spend most of his time playing Full Forward from the square late in the game, with JJK leading up. I would say he was a little restricted, but we didn't really see much of him. He's that player you are not sure if you should be frustrated with or not. He plays injured, which is great that he gets out there, and plays through the pain, but he also plays injured, and messes with our SC scores!!!
I would think the only excuse to go Brown to Papley this week, is if you are nearly sure you will need both trades next week for other corrections. Even if he scores ok this week, he's no certainty to get picked in Round 3! Remember the Laidler "incident" from 2014, where he was top scorer for Sydney in Round 1, and dropped for Round 2!!! So even if he scores an 80 or whatever, I wouldn't be kicking yourself until at least next Thursday!
McGovern seemed to spend most of his time playing Full Forward from the square late in the game, with JJK leading up. I would say he was a little restricted, but we didn't really see much of him. He's that player you are not sure if you should be frustrated with or not. He plays injured, which is great that he gets out there, and plays through the pain, but he also plays injured, and messes with our SC scores!!!
In the (Tom Mitchell Jack lloyd, Lance Franklin, Sam Docherty, Sam Kerridge, Zach Touhy, Matthew Kreuzer Isaac Heeney) group, would it be wise to lets say, split the fund into 55-45 and bet on both Mitchell and Franklin? Assuming there is a $20 budget, and that Mitchell has a 50% chance of winning, Franklin 40%, rest 10%
Expected Winnings=20x0.55x$3.00x0.50+20x0.45x$4.00x0.4+0.1x0-$20=$30.9-20=$10.9
Perhaps a little safer than going all in on 1 player, and it seems to leave a bit of room for error too.
Expected Winnings=20x0.55x$3.00x0.50+20x0.45x$4.00x0.4+0.1x0-$20=$30.9-20=$10.9
Perhaps a little safer than going all in on 1 player, and it seems to leave a bit of room for error too.
Loving the diversion into betting analysis Rowsus - very cool. Many thanks for the explanation of the % in a race; it had puzzled me but it was so bloody simple when explained. I used to really enjoy watching bookies and their signalling (the tic-tac men) in the pre-internet days. The stories of their betting battles with Kerry Packer were legendary. Now they seem to do no more then follow a computer programme rather than adjust the odds based on mental calculations. The new breed seem incapable of trying to psychologically manipulate a guy like the goanna. They just want be on TV.
What are your thoughts on Robinson now? I guess we should hold since he's listed as 1-2 weeks, but having a POD keeper down after round 1 is really annoying. I started with Milera over B.Kennedy which seems a bad choice as well.
Would you consider either of these trades?
Robinson > B.Kennedy - injured keeper to rookie.
Milera > B.Kennedy - rookie for rookie swap.
Would you consider either of these trades?
Robinson > B.Kennedy - injured keeper to rookie.
Milera > B.Kennedy - rookie for rookie swap.
I worked for rails bookmakers in Melbourne for 15 years, and one of the funniest things I ever saw involved K Packer. Packer was betting nearly exclusively with a bookmaker named Billy Graham one Spring. This was back in the day when they still had a Cup hurdle on Cup Day, and a Steeplechase on Oaks Day. Billy hated betting on jumps races, and hadn't set his board for the race. Colin Hayes had an odds on pop in the race at around 4/6 odds (odds weren't decimal back then, so around $1.67). Kerry came up to Billy and said "Give me a $100,000 on Hayes' horse" (a smallish bet for Packer in those days!). Billy replied "Nahhh, I'm not working on the race" he pointed to my boss, and said "try next door." Kerry looked at my boss, my boss' eyes went wide, and he went a bit pale, Kerry's look said it all, he didn't have to say the words do you want the bet? My boss shook his head and said "Not if you want to get paid, if it wins!". - postscript - the horse fell at the 3rd jump!
It all comes down to your logic behind choosing him, and whether you are happy with your structure.
My logic was, that he averaged well over 100 with Beams out of the side, and now Rockliff says that Beams could be back as soon as Round 4 or 5. I was expecting Beams out for at least 8 to 10 weeks. Robinson out for 1 or 2, Beams back sooner than hoped (potentially), and a weak Def structure that had 2 Def Rookies on the field pushed me to go Robinson --> Rance, so I could get Lonergan from D4 to D5.
If your logic in picking Robbo didn't include the Beams factor, and you are happy with your Keeper structure, I would keep Robbo.
I'm not a fan of using a Keeper to get a Rookie, particularly after 1 Round.
I would only contemplate Milera --> Kennedy this week, if you were fairly certain you needed to use 2 trades next week.
No hijacking involved. I encourage others to answer questions here too!
Good example!
My logic was, that he averaged well over 100 with Beams out of the side, and now Rockliff says that Beams could be back as soon as Round 4 or 5. I was expecting Beams out for at least 8 to 10 weeks. Robinson out for 1 or 2, Beams back sooner than hoped (potentially), and a weak Def structure that had 2 Def Rookies on the field pushed me to go Robinson --> Rance, so I could get Lonergan from D4 to D5.
If your logic in picking Robbo didn't include the Beams factor, and you are happy with your Keeper structure, I would keep Robbo.
I'm not a fan of using a Keeper to get a Rookie, particularly after 1 Round.
I would only contemplate Milera --> Kennedy this week, if you were fairly certain you needed to use 2 trades next week.
No hijacking involved. I encourage others to answer questions here too!
Good example!
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