Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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Hi Rowsus
I'm interested in your thoughts on Mason Wood. 16 games in 3 seasons but 82 from 8 games last season and on the way up. By all reports he has had a great pre season with marking above his head still an area of opportunity for improvement.
I see his development a year or so in front of Gunston who went from 83 in 2013 to 90 in 2014.
What are your thoughts and what do you see his likely scoring output to be this year?
I'm interested in your thoughts on Mason Wood. 16 games in 3 seasons but 82 from 8 games last season and on the way up. By all reports he has had a great pre season with marking above his head still an area of opportunity for improvement.
I see his development a year or so in front of Gunston who went from 83 in 2013 to 90 in 2014.
What are your thoughts and what do you see his likely scoring output to be this year?
Hi Rowsus,
Looking at going for a POD of Priddis in the midfield. In recent times he has benefited from Nic Nat feeding him the ball, however, with the unlikely return of Nic Nat this season I'm wondering if he'll be maybe a negative POD.
My thoughts are that even though that he will likely result in less clearances, he might make up for it in tackles and potentially increased stoppages?? I remember reading that he was the no.1 ranked player for tackles at stoppages last year!
Do you think the absence of Nic Nat will hurt this year? Do you expect an increase or decrease in output? or is it too difficult to tell?
Thanks for your time
Looking at going for a POD of Priddis in the midfield. In recent times he has benefited from Nic Nat feeding him the ball, however, with the unlikely return of Nic Nat this season I'm wondering if he'll be maybe a negative POD.
My thoughts are that even though that he will likely result in less clearances, he might make up for it in tackles and potentially increased stoppages?? I remember reading that he was the no.1 ranked player for tackles at stoppages last year!
Do you think the absence of Nic Nat will hurt this year? Do you expect an increase or decrease in output? or is it too difficult to tell?
Thanks for your time
Hi Rowsus
Are you able to give some detailed insight into Blake Acres please?
Thanks
Are you able to give some detailed insight into Blake Acres please?
Thanks
you might have read in my answer to KK, that my SC research is 35% observation, 65% hard stats and 5% gut feel.
My interest in Blake Acres is more observational, and goes back to Round 19 last season. I believe he is a player that St Kilda have always had a high opinion of, and high hopes for. He was taken at pick 19 in the 2013 Draft, with the Saints also taking Billings at pick 3, and Dunstan at pick 18. He played Round 1 last season, but was dropped, and given a fair ripping into by the Coach. Since then he has become a bit of a Coaches pet, as he reacted exactly as the Coach hoped, and put his head down, bum up, and worked his @ss off!
Fast forward to Round 18. St Kilda upset the Bulldogs at Etihad (the game where Wallis broke his leg.), and are now sitting 9th on the ladder, outside of the 8 by 2 games and percentage behind North sitting in 8th. There is no way St Kilda had written the season off, and given themselves no chance of playing finals. This is important, because it was from Round 19 that Acres was given more Midfield time. Why would St Kilda not run with their absolute best options, when they were trying to steal their way into the 8? The answer is, they wouldn't, which implies that Acres had done enough to show them he was ready to be a part of their Mid rotations. There were no significant injuries coming out of Round 18 paving his path to the Midfield. This implies he worked his way into the position, obviously as the Coach had asked him to do. His efforts in those last 5 games were creditable, without being amazing. SC scores of: 110, 93, 110, 109, 61 - ave 96.6, and TOG% of ave 81.4 in those games, giving him a SC/100%TOG of 118.7. This compares very favorably with Acres first 11 games of the season, where he averaged SC 65.7, TOG% 69.9, SC/100%TOG 94.0. As would be expected, all his key stats rose with that shift to more Midfield time. I watched most of the minutes in those 5 games, and he looked at home in the Midfield.
He is getting glowing reports for his pre-season efforts this year, finishing 5th in the time trial shows his fitness levels are up. At 190cm and 90kg, he's that big unit you want in the Midfield. Looking at St Kilda's Midfielders, they probably want to be developing an Acres type. Apart from Stevens, the other Midfielders in: Ross, Newnes and Armitage wouldn't be striking fear into other potential finalists. They also have: Stevens, Billings, Dunstan and Steele, but from what we saw last season, Acres, if he does the right thing, looks to be getting first crack at making a Midfield spot his. Compare those names at St Kilda to those Heeney has in front of him: Kennedy, Hannebery and Parker, then throw in: Mills, Lloyd, Robinson, Foote and Florent all wanting some Midtime, and it would seem in a head to head race for Midtime at their relative Clubs, Acres is in front of Heeney. Heeney is "sexy" because he played those good finals, but realistically, his numbers are not much different to those of Acres, so it appears that "opportunity" is the only thing separating them. Given the popularity of Heeney, taking Acres seemed like an easy pick to me.
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Hi _Slip_,
I think you nailed his nearest comparison in Gunston. Gunston didn't get close to SC relevancy until his 5th season, and he had played 55 games by that stage, including finals. Tallish players need more time and games to develop, usually, and I'd be putting Wood in that group. Given his game counts, and the doubt about his role and development, I'm not seriously considering him. My guess is he'll be somewhere between 17/80 and 20/92 this season. As I've said before, I don't want to pick someone in my starting team that needs to perform to their expected upper level to be considered a good pick. I also don't want to take my expected F6 in my starting team, so either way, he's not for me.
I think you nailed his nearest comparison in Gunston. Gunston didn't get close to SC relevancy until his 5th season, and he had played 55 games by that stage, including finals. Tallish players need more time and games to develop, usually, and I'd be putting Wood in that group. Given his game counts, and the doubt about his role and development, I'm not seriously considering him. My guess is he'll be somewhere between 17/80 and 20/92 this season. As I've said before, I don't want to pick someone in my starting team that needs to perform to their expected upper level to be considered a good pick. I also don't want to take my expected F6 in my starting team, so either way, he's not for me.
Hi Rowsus,
Looking at going for a POD of Priddis in the midfield. In recent times he has benefited from Nic Nat feeding him the ball, however, with the unlikely return of Nic Nat this season I'm wondering if he'll be maybe a negative POD.
My thoughts are that even though that he will likely result in less clearances, he might make up for it in tackles and potentially increased stoppages?? I remember reading that he was the no.1 ranked player for tackles at stoppages last year!
Do you think the absence of Nic Nat will hurt this year? Do you expect an increase or decrease in output? or is it too difficult to tell?
Thanks for your time
Looking at going for a POD of Priddis in the midfield. In recent times he has benefited from Nic Nat feeding him the ball, however, with the unlikely return of Nic Nat this season I'm wondering if he'll be maybe a negative POD.
My thoughts are that even though that he will likely result in less clearances, he might make up for it in tackles and potentially increased stoppages?? I remember reading that he was the no.1 ranked player for tackles at stoppages last year!
Do you think the absence of Nic Nat will hurt this year? Do you expect an increase or decrease in output? or is it too difficult to tell?
Thanks for your time
if you like Priddis, then I wouldn't let NicNat's absence keep you from getting him. Clearances score no points in SC, though obviously the possession involved in the Clearance does. That's not why I say ignore NicNat's absence though.
WC have in recent years been great for Hitouts, and poor for Clearances, and 2016 was no exception. The fact is, there seems to be absolutely no correlation between Hitouts and Clearances! I know most people will scoff when reading that, but let's look at the table below.
Port, worst for Hitouts/game, but 2nd best for Clearances/game.
Bulldogs, 3rd worst for Hitouts/game, but 6th best for Clearances/game.
WC, 2nd best for Hitouts/game, but 8th best for Clearances/game.
The 3 worst teams for Hitouts/game were the only 3 teams that average more Clearances than Hitouts for the season. Some might think that seems obvious, but look at the numbers!!!
Melbourne 48 Hitouts/game, but only 38 Clearances, while Port averaged 30 Hitouts/game, but still outscored Melbourne in Clearances with 39!!!
There is no correlation between Hitouts and Clearances, so if you like Priddis, have at it!!!
The table is also interesting for those umming and aahing over Witts!
GC, 2nd last in Hitouts/game, and last in Clearances/game!
If you think the GC football Dept didn't sit down at the end of the season, and say our Ruck and on-ball set up just isn't cutting it, you're kidding yourself. Witts was targetted to be a part of the fix, and running Nicholls/Currie/Brooksby again would seem to be the very definition of crazy. I'm guessing Witts was recruited with "You do the work, and keep yourself fit, and we'll give you a good crack at First Ruck". Witts has so far fulfilled his part of the deal.
Hey anfa18,
I think there are two ways of looking at Libba.
In 2013/14 he averaged: 12 kicks, 12.8 Hballs, 7 Tackles, 14 CP's (56% of Poss's), 7.7 Clearances
In 2016 he averaged: 8.2 kicks, 12.2 Hballs, 5.4 Tackles, 11 CP's (53.6% of Poss's), 4.5 Clearances
Obviously quite a difference between the two. The question you need to answer is, is the difference due to a change of game plan, under a new Hawthorn-like Coach? Or, is the difference because like some players, his first season back from a serious knee didn't see him at his peak? If you can answer that, then you know where Libba stands. My estimate is, that it's somewhere between the two, which means he might be a 100-102 type player in 2017.
Lycett looks like he will be back anywhere from JLT3 to Round 3/4. I think he has some improvement in him, especially as he has a 2 and a 38 in his 2016 scores, and he's a young Ruck that should naturally improve anyway. The question is, will it be 2017? Will 2017 be a rebuilding year for him, and 2018 might be his year? The risk would appear to be too great, because at his price he won't make much money, and he's unlikely to end up a top 3 Ruck in 2017.
I think there are two ways of looking at Libba.
In 2013/14 he averaged: 12 kicks, 12.8 Hballs, 7 Tackles, 14 CP's (56% of Poss's), 7.7 Clearances
In 2016 he averaged: 8.2 kicks, 12.2 Hballs, 5.4 Tackles, 11 CP's (53.6% of Poss's), 4.5 Clearances
Obviously quite a difference between the two. The question you need to answer is, is the difference due to a change of game plan, under a new Hawthorn-like Coach? Or, is the difference because like some players, his first season back from a serious knee didn't see him at his peak? If you can answer that, then you know where Libba stands. My estimate is, that it's somewhere between the two, which means he might be a 100-102 type player in 2017.
Lycett looks like he will be back anywhere from JLT3 to Round 3/4. I think he has some improvement in him, especially as he has a 2 and a 38 in his 2016 scores, and he's a young Ruck that should naturally improve anyway. The question is, will it be 2017? Will 2017 be a rebuilding year for him, and 2018 might be his year? The risk would appear to be too great, because at his price he won't make much money, and he's unlikely to end up a top 3 Ruck in 2017.
Hey Rows,
Based on your in depth analysis of players and your responses to everyones questions. I am coming to realse that you are very much in the GnR structure with your team,
which of course has worked for many in the past. It seems your theory is not to start anyone that has the potential to be your D/M/F 6 or even 5 for that matter and rather look to fill those positions down the track.
This I can clearly understand but I guess it puts alot of faith in the fact you select the right rookies who will make you cash to fill those positions.
So this leads to my question on how you perceive the awkwardly priced players that have the potential but have not yet proven to be keepers. Eg. J.Martin who I am currently looking at along with the others like Acres etc. Do you rule them out completely straight away? Or do you actually consider these players with a Risk vs Reward process?
Sorry if it sounds like a bit of a left field question but I currently have J.Martin as F3 as was just wondering if he is too bigger risk at that price.
cheers
Based on your in depth analysis of players and your responses to everyones questions. I am coming to realse that you are very much in the GnR structure with your team,
which of course has worked for many in the past. It seems your theory is not to start anyone that has the potential to be your D/M/F 6 or even 5 for that matter and rather look to fill those positions down the track.
This I can clearly understand but I guess it puts alot of faith in the fact you select the right rookies who will make you cash to fill those positions.
So this leads to my question on how you perceive the awkwardly priced players that have the potential but have not yet proven to be keepers. Eg. J.Martin who I am currently looking at along with the others like Acres etc. Do you rule them out completely straight away? Or do you actually consider these players with a Risk vs Reward process?
Sorry if it sounds like a bit of a left field question but I currently have J.Martin as F3 as was just wondering if he is too bigger risk at that price.
cheers
Hi Misky,
if you like Priddis, then I wouldn't let NicNat's absence keep you from getting him. Clearances score no points in SC, though obviously the possession involved in the Clearance does. That's not why I say ignore NicNat's absence though.
WC have in recent years been great for Hitouts, and poor for Clearances, and 2016 was no exception. The fact is, there seems to be absolutely no correlation between Hitouts and Clearances! I know most people will scoff when reading that, but let's look at the table below.
Port, worst for Hitouts/game, but 2nd best for Clearances/game.
Bulldogs, 3rd worst for Hitouts/game, but 6th best for Clearances/game.
WC, 2nd best for Hitouts/game, but 8th best for Clearances/game.
The 3 worst teams for Hitouts/game were the only 3 teams that average more Clearances than Hitouts for the season. Some might think that seems obvious, but look at the numbers!!!
Melbourne 48 Hitouts/game, but only 38 Clearances, while Port averaged 30 Hitouts/game, but still outscored Melbourne in Clearances with 39!!!
There is no correlation between Hitouts and Clearances, so if you like Priddis, have at it!!!
The table is also interesting for those umming and aahing over Witts!
GC, 2nd last in Hitouts/game, and last in Clearances/game!
If you think the GC football Dept didn't sit down at the end of the season, and say our Ruck and on-ball set up just isn't cutting it, you're kidding yourself. Witts was targetted to be a part of the fix, and running Nicholls/Currie/Brooksby again would seem to be the very definition of crazy. I'm guessing Witts was recruited with "You do the work, and keep yourself fit, and we'll give you a good crack at First Ruck". Witts has so far fulfilled his part of the deal.
if you like Priddis, then I wouldn't let NicNat's absence keep you from getting him. Clearances score no points in SC, though obviously the possession involved in the Clearance does. That's not why I say ignore NicNat's absence though.
WC have in recent years been great for Hitouts, and poor for Clearances, and 2016 was no exception. The fact is, there seems to be absolutely no correlation between Hitouts and Clearances! I know most people will scoff when reading that, but let's look at the table below.
Port, worst for Hitouts/game, but 2nd best for Clearances/game.
Bulldogs, 3rd worst for Hitouts/game, but 6th best for Clearances/game.
WC, 2nd best for Hitouts/game, but 8th best for Clearances/game.
The 3 worst teams for Hitouts/game were the only 3 teams that average more Clearances than Hitouts for the season. Some might think that seems obvious, but look at the numbers!!!
Melbourne 48 Hitouts/game, but only 38 Clearances, while Port averaged 30 Hitouts/game, but still outscored Melbourne in Clearances with 39!!!
There is no correlation between Hitouts and Clearances, so if you like Priddis, have at it!!!
The table is also interesting for those umming and aahing over Witts!
GC, 2nd last in Hitouts/game, and last in Clearances/game!
If you think the GC football Dept didn't sit down at the end of the season, and say our Ruck and on-ball set up just isn't cutting it, you're kidding yourself. Witts was targetted to be a part of the fix, and running Nicholls/Currie/Brooksby again would seem to be the very definition of crazy. I'm guessing Witts was recruited with "You do the work, and keep yourself fit, and we'll give you a good crack at First Ruck". Witts has so far fulfilled his part of the deal.
"You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Rowsus again"
Hey Rowsus,
After changing my backline structure to 3-0-5, I currently have
Docherty>Mcdonald>Williams>Shaw>Montagna>Rance>Burgoyne
as my optons for D3.
Really interested in Mcdonald, as I think he's a 93-95 ave x 22 defender who will average 30% more in the first 6-7 games. What are your thoughts of him? He has a really good draw for key defenders, that is his opponents generally have strong mids but weak key forwards.
After changing my backline structure to 3-0-5, I currently have
Docherty>Mcdonald>Williams>Shaw>Montagna>Rance>Burgoyne
as my optons for D3.
Really interested in Mcdonald, as I think he's a 93-95 ave x 22 defender who will average 30% more in the first 6-7 games. What are your thoughts of him? He has a really good draw for key defenders, that is his opponents generally have strong mids but weak key forwards.
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