Opinion Questions For Rowsus
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Hey Rowsus,
Could i get your thoughts on Pendles? He's been a staple of the game for nearly a decade but this year hes hovering at 5% ownership. I do understand hes approaching the twilight of his career and the potential role change but does that discount his previous scoring potential and durability?
EDIT: just to add, any other year everyone would have snapped up pendles at his current price, why do you think there is such cold feet towards him this year when there's still a lot of uncertainty within the midfield
Could i get your thoughts on Pendles? He's been a staple of the game for nearly a decade but this year hes hovering at 5% ownership. I do understand hes approaching the twilight of his career and the potential role change but does that discount his previous scoring potential and durability?
EDIT: just to add, any other year everyone would have snapped up pendles at his current price, why do you think there is such cold feet towards him this year when there's still a lot of uncertainty within the midfield
Hey Steuby,
I think it's a combination of age, he's getting more niggles now, and role, with younger players pushing through now. Most probably doubt he will play 22 games, after only playing 16 last season (though he only missed one game in 4 seasons before that), and most doubt he will get back to 110+.
If the general opinion is he is a 19-20/106-108 player, then you can understand his ownership numbers.
I'm in that boat, I think he'll be around 20/107 this season. Where do you see him?
Keep in mind, there have only been 2 players (Montagna and Pavlich) that have ever returned to the 110+ area once they have fallen below it at the age of 29+, and Pendlebury is 30.
I think it's a combination of age, he's getting more niggles now, and role, with younger players pushing through now. Most probably doubt he will play 22 games, after only playing 16 last season (though he only missed one game in 4 seasons before that), and most doubt he will get back to 110+.
If the general opinion is he is a 19-20/106-108 player, then you can understand his ownership numbers.
I'm in that boat, I think he'll be around 20/107 this season. Where do you see him?
Keep in mind, there have only been 2 players (Montagna and Pavlich) that have ever returned to the 110+ area once they have fallen below it at the age of 29+, and Pendlebury is 30.
Hey MC,
it's a really tricky price point. The stats say that less than 5% of players in his price range turn out to be happy picks. Having said that, I have entertained him at different times this preseason, and at least he appears to have some potential upside, having only played 57 games. Still, he just doesn't strike me as the big scoring, intercepting, rebounding Def we are all looking for ........ but he might become one!
Bottom line, it's probably safer on two or three different level to look elsewhere.
it's a really tricky price point. The stats say that less than 5% of players in his price range turn out to be happy picks. Having said that, I have entertained him at different times this preseason, and at least he appears to have some potential upside, having only played 57 games. Still, he just doesn't strike me as the big scoring, intercepting, rebounding Def we are all looking for ........ but he might become one!
Bottom line, it's probably safer on two or three different level to look elsewhere.
Hi Rowsus,
Not many sleeps until the start of the season now and while most of my team is set (I think), I am really struggling with that D3 position. I have Hibberd and Lloyd at D1 and D2 and am currently looking at a highly speculative pick in Weitering. He smashed us in JLT2 with his strong intercept play and good ball use however he had some absolute stinkers last year playing D7 with scores of 22 and 19 last year (yikes).
It is very difficult to pick a breakout contender but feel that with Docherty out Carlton will count on his leadership and class even more.
Do you have any thoughts on Weitering? I don't have many speculative picks and with one like Weitering you either live or die by the sword - he is awkwardly priced but for some reason feel more secure having him at D3 than McGovern or a rookie in a 6-0-2 structure.
Not many sleeps until the start of the season now and while most of my team is set (I think), I am really struggling with that D3 position. I have Hibberd and Lloyd at D1 and D2 and am currently looking at a highly speculative pick in Weitering. He smashed us in JLT2 with his strong intercept play and good ball use however he had some absolute stinkers last year playing D7 with scores of 22 and 19 last year (yikes).
It is very difficult to pick a breakout contender but feel that with Docherty out Carlton will count on his leadership and class even more.
Do you have any thoughts on Weitering? I don't have many speculative picks and with one like Weitering you either live or die by the sword - he is awkwardly priced but for some reason feel more secure having him at D3 than McGovern or a rookie in a 6-0-2 structure.
Just some thoughts I have.
Regarding Dangerfield's price. I don't think anybody knows if he will have hamstring problems this year, or his current hamstring strain is a one off.
If his hamstring strain is a one off, then, physically and mentally, he still should continue being a 'Top Gun' and scoring very well (especially as a Captain). To later trade him into one's team might take 2 or 3 trades to do so.
If the hamstring is a continuing problem, then with his high price, it may only take 1 trade to get in a premium player into one's team.
Regarding Ablett, I see an Ex-Top Gun player, who is in his AFL's twilight years (will be 34yo this year), a player who has been battling injuries every year since 2014 and had an interrupted preseason.
I don't see him as a threat to Dangerfield.
Just my thoughts.
Regarding Dangerfield's price. I don't think anybody knows if he will have hamstring problems this year, or his current hamstring strain is a one off.
If his hamstring strain is a one off, then, physically and mentally, he still should continue being a 'Top Gun' and scoring very well (especially as a Captain). To later trade him into one's team might take 2 or 3 trades to do so.
If the hamstring is a continuing problem, then with his high price, it may only take 1 trade to get in a premium player into one's team.
Regarding Ablett, I see an Ex-Top Gun player, who is in his AFL's twilight years (will be 34yo this year), a player who has been battling injuries every year since 2014 and had an interrupted preseason.
I don't see him as a threat to Dangerfield.
Just my thoughts.
Hi Row, hope you're keeping well and the team is coming along nicely.
Thought I'd pop in and fire off my last question for you this pre season. It's a bit of an XvY for my final forward spot.
Buddy Vs Petracca. I realise they are at vastly different price points but for the sake of the excercise, Id like to discount that fact.
Buddy is a name I've not seen in very many teams going around and I started to ask myself why that is. Granted he is a bit older than most at 31 but if his pre season games are to go by he doesn't seem to have lost anything over the summer that would indicate a significant reduction in output. Gone close to 100 for the first 10 the last 2 years and seems to have gained some durability in his old age. Suspension and Injury do play a part in considering him though feel the days of Buddy shirtfronts might be behind us.
I seem to remember you taking a firm "Start or forget" stance on him in the past and was just wondering what your take is on him for the 2018 season. Like many others I have Sydney pegged as a top 4 side and if the season plays out that way you'd have to believe Buddy plays more than a bit part in that outcome. For me selecting him is an excercise based around established history and likely output.
Petracca looks to be at the other end of the spectrum for all intents and purposes. A selection based on prediction and perceived potential. I think you'd struggle to find anyone that has watched him closely and thinks he's found his limit already. I'm a huge fan of his and I think he'll be a very very good player in the future. What I do struggle with is where his extra points come from this season. He averaged 80% ToG in 2017 and while I think there will be a marginal increase this season I don't believe he has the tank to push that into the mid to high 80s that we are looking for just yet and as a result I struggle to see a real increase in ppg from extra ToG.
The next port of call is increased midfield minutes and by extension an increase in disposals. Melbourne are already a very strong clearance and contested ball side and he has some fierce competition for an inside mid role with Viney, Jones and Oliver the likely "first choice" midfield. None of those 3 have shown themselves to be proficient forwards which leads me to the conclusion that they will still spend 80% of their time on the field in the midfield, again making me wonder who's minutes Petracca will displace.
All in all I think he will improve this season, but I'm finding it very hard to see a 12+ppg increase to get him to an acceptable season long F6.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on the 2 and your expected returns for each for this season. Thanks for all the hard work you put into this thread mate, I realise it must be a very time consuming process.
Cheers.
Thought I'd pop in and fire off my last question for you this pre season. It's a bit of an XvY for my final forward spot.
Buddy Vs Petracca. I realise they are at vastly different price points but for the sake of the excercise, Id like to discount that fact.
Buddy is a name I've not seen in very many teams going around and I started to ask myself why that is. Granted he is a bit older than most at 31 but if his pre season games are to go by he doesn't seem to have lost anything over the summer that would indicate a significant reduction in output. Gone close to 100 for the first 10 the last 2 years and seems to have gained some durability in his old age. Suspension and Injury do play a part in considering him though feel the days of Buddy shirtfronts might be behind us.
I seem to remember you taking a firm "Start or forget" stance on him in the past and was just wondering what your take is on him for the 2018 season. Like many others I have Sydney pegged as a top 4 side and if the season plays out that way you'd have to believe Buddy plays more than a bit part in that outcome. For me selecting him is an excercise based around established history and likely output.
Petracca looks to be at the other end of the spectrum for all intents and purposes. A selection based on prediction and perceived potential. I think you'd struggle to find anyone that has watched him closely and thinks he's found his limit already. I'm a huge fan of his and I think he'll be a very very good player in the future. What I do struggle with is where his extra points come from this season. He averaged 80% ToG in 2017 and while I think there will be a marginal increase this season I don't believe he has the tank to push that into the mid to high 80s that we are looking for just yet and as a result I struggle to see a real increase in ppg from extra ToG.
The next port of call is increased midfield minutes and by extension an increase in disposals. Melbourne are already a very strong clearance and contested ball side and he has some fierce competition for an inside mid role with Viney, Jones and Oliver the likely "first choice" midfield. None of those 3 have shown themselves to be proficient forwards which leads me to the conclusion that they will still spend 80% of their time on the field in the midfield, again making me wonder who's minutes Petracca will displace.
All in all I think he will improve this season, but I'm finding it very hard to see a 12+ppg increase to get him to an acceptable season long F6.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on the 2 and your expected returns for each for this season. Thanks for all the hard work you put into this thread mate, I realise it must be a very time consuming process.
Cheers.
Row - hopefully two easy ones for you in what will no doubt be a busy week 
Trust your side is coming along well.
Who do you like/think is interesting in the $200-300k bracket?
What do you think of using someone like Cogs as a mid stepping stone to get Danger? I think I know your views on mid pricers in the midfield, I'm wondering whether a higher priced one may be different this year given Danger's high price, captain value and potential slow start. Personally I have little or no interest in Cogs as a keeper, FYI - so there's little risk he'll be an M8 trap for me personally.
Appreciate any thoughts you might have, but even something very short would be of interest if you're busy with questions and your own side!
Trust your side is coming along well.Who do you like/think is interesting in the $200-300k bracket?
What do you think of using someone like Cogs as a mid stepping stone to get Danger? I think I know your views on mid pricers in the midfield, I'm wondering whether a higher priced one may be different this year given Danger's high price, captain value and potential slow start. Personally I have little or no interest in Cogs as a keeper, FYI - so there's little risk he'll be an M8 trap for me personally.
Appreciate any thoughts you might have, but even something very short would be of interest if you're busy with questions and your own side!
Hi BigRuss,
I'm well, and I hope you are too. My team is looking "interesting". Given the path I chose to start this season, and picking my team, it nearly picked itself, outside of 1 or 2 picks.
I think your summary of each player is pretty spot on.
Buddy is pushing more up the ground than he did 3 or 4 (or more) years ago. This can be seen in his last 2 seasons Inside 50's being at career high levels (4.4 & 5.2, career average at the end of 2015 was 2.9!), which I believe has had a slight flow on effect in less Frees Against, which used to come a lot from "wrestling" for position in marking contests. His Frees Against count the last 3 seasons are his career 2nd, 3rd and 4th lowest, with his debut season in 2005 being his lowest. What this means to me is, his scoring has become a bit more consistent. He is less likely to have those freak 200+ SC games, but also less likely to have those sub 50 scores, as he's up the ground, and in the action more.
Petracca is a bull, and a gun, no doubt about that. I share your scepticism on his ability to boost his SC so dramatically this season though. Melbourne could have as many as 11 players looking for a decent slice of the Midfield pie in the team, all at the same time. That slices the pie pretty thin for some of them, and I agree with you, some of the others aren't as good in the Forward line as Petracca. I'd love to take a risk on picking Petracca, ANB or Harmes, but it's a real risk they get mired in that low 90's area, so I won't be taking any of them.
If Buddy keeps his cool, and stays fit, I can't see him not finishing in the top 6-8 Forwards for the season, and probably at least top 4. Petracca needs to stretch to get to that area, imo. Of course, the difference in price becomes a factor, too.
My ranges for them are:
Franklin 20-21/93-103
Petracca 20-22/86-96
I'm well, and I hope you are too. My team is looking "interesting". Given the path I chose to start this season, and picking my team, it nearly picked itself, outside of 1 or 2 picks.
I think your summary of each player is pretty spot on.
Buddy is pushing more up the ground than he did 3 or 4 (or more) years ago. This can be seen in his last 2 seasons Inside 50's being at career high levels (4.4 & 5.2, career average at the end of 2015 was 2.9!), which I believe has had a slight flow on effect in less Frees Against, which used to come a lot from "wrestling" for position in marking contests. His Frees Against count the last 3 seasons are his career 2nd, 3rd and 4th lowest, with his debut season in 2005 being his lowest. What this means to me is, his scoring has become a bit more consistent. He is less likely to have those freak 200+ SC games, but also less likely to have those sub 50 scores, as he's up the ground, and in the action more.
Petracca is a bull, and a gun, no doubt about that. I share your scepticism on his ability to boost his SC so dramatically this season though. Melbourne could have as many as 11 players looking for a decent slice of the Midfield pie in the team, all at the same time. That slices the pie pretty thin for some of them, and I agree with you, some of the others aren't as good in the Forward line as Petracca. I'd love to take a risk on picking Petracca, ANB or Harmes, but it's a real risk they get mired in that low 90's area, so I won't be taking any of them.
If Buddy keeps his cool, and stays fit, I can't see him not finishing in the top 6-8 Forwards for the season, and probably at least top 4. Petracca needs to stretch to get to that area, imo. Of course, the difference in price becomes a factor, too.
My ranges for them are:
Franklin 20-21/93-103
Petracca 20-22/86-96
Row - hopefully two easy ones for you in what will no doubt be a busy week Trust your side is coming along well.
Who do you like/think is interesting in the $200-300k bracket?
What do you think of using someone like Cogs as a mid stepping stone to get Danger? I think I know your views on mid pricers in the midfield, I'm wondering whether a higher priced one may be different this year given Danger's high price, captain value and potential slow start. Personally I have little or no interest in Cogs as a keeper, FYI - so there's little risk he'll be an M8 trap for me personally.
Appreciate any thoughts you might have, but even something very short would be of interest if you're busy with questions and your own side!
Trust your side is coming along well.Who do you like/think is interesting in the $200-300k bracket?
What do you think of using someone like Cogs as a mid stepping stone to get Danger? I think I know your views on mid pricers in the midfield, I'm wondering whether a higher priced one may be different this year given Danger's high price, captain value and potential slow start. Personally I have little or no interest in Cogs as a keeper, FYI - so there's little risk he'll be an M8 trap for me personally.
Appreciate any thoughts you might have, but even something very short would be of interest if you're busy with questions and your own side!
the players in that awkward $200-$300k area I could entertain picking are:
CEY, Bonner, McCartin, Ellis & Brown C.
Everybody not starting Danger should have at least some sort of plan as to how they reach him. Trying to get there through Rookies commits 3 of your better Cash Cows to the process, so having a Stepping Stone plan, particularly a high-ish priced Stepping Stone, seems like the best plan to me. Coniglio would appear to be the highest priced Stepping Stone available for such a thing, and to my mind it sets a reasonable expectation on his returns. I say go for it!
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