Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Cattleherder]

Hi Rowsus, Beiging Sting, Bermi and others. Love your dedication to the game. I am outing myself as a Supercoach tragic who has no chance of winning but loves to play anyway.

To you guys overseas, how do you watch the AFL? Is it through the watchafl.com.au website? Why I ask is that I am going to Italy and Austria for 4 weeks shortly and need to keep in touch. Or should I just admit my addiction?

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, Beiging Sting, Bermi and others. Love your dedication to the game. I am outing myself as a Supercoach tragic who has no chance of winning but loves to play anyway.

To you guys overseas, how do you watch the AFL? Is it through the watchafl.com.au website? Why I ask is that I am going to Italy and Austria for 4 weeks shortly and need to keep in touch. Or should I just admit my addiction?

Hi Cattle,
yes, I have the watchafl overseas package. Sometimes there is a problem with lag/buffering, but in general it's not too bad.
I hope you have a great trip, that's an unusual combination you have there, Austria and Italy. I'm sure there is good reason behind it.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Hi Rowsus, Beiging Sting, Bermi and others. Love your dedication to the game. I am outing myself as a Supercoach tragic who has no chance of winning but loves to play anyway.

To you guys overseas, how do you watch the AFL? Is it through the watchafl.com.au website? Why I ask is that I am going to Italy and Austria for 4 weeks shortly and need to keep in touch. Or should I just admit my addiction?

Hi Cattle,
yes, I have the watchafl overseas package. Sometimes there is a problem with lag/buffering, but in general it's not too bad.
I hope you have a great trip, that's an unusual combination you have there, Austria and Italy. I'm sure there is good reason behind it.

Just did Italy/Austria as part of taking family to London/Paris/Malta.

Austria was one of the different places for me, mountains rather than cities (1 day of ski only). Easy to get to via car (just need to remember vignette otherwise fines at the border are steep). Innsbruck was one of favourite places and didnt even find the time to make it into the centre of the town!

 

[Fiasco]

Hi Fiasco, I'm well and I hope you are too.
First let me say, I'm answering from my phone, so my answer is shorter than I would normally like.
Swinging Garlett up, and getting 2 Fwds depends on which Rookie that pushes on to you field in the Mid. If it's Holman or Kelly, then do it. If it's a 60 point ? then don't. I actually like Gunston, and particularly Westhoff as picks, so choosing one of them is a good move, imo. So it looks like a choice in 3 to me. Dusty/Curnow, Oliver/Westhoff or Heeney/Gray. All 3 are good combinations, but unless you need another solid C/vC option in Dusty, then the last one seems less likely to lead to more trades later on. I hope this has helped.

Thanks Row, still undecided. I’m leaning towards bringing in 2 forwards just because I know that they’ll both be keepers. But it would be Brayshaw coming off the bench in the midfield so he’s probably not scoring much more than the forward rookies. Just not 100% sold on Gunston/Westoff they could do great but also could require another trade.
Thanks mate.

 

[Cattleherder]

Hi Rowsus and GFB. Thanks for the feedback on O/S. We are flying into Rome and out from Vienna, and taking in sites in between. I like the medieval and rennaissance history of Italy, and will be doing some walking in the Austrian Alps. Not far away now.
Cheers.

 

[30BucketsofRo]

Hi Row,

Can I please get your thoughts on Macrae and Gibbs as trade-in options for Bont?
Bont has tonned up twice so far but going off the 3 games, he is playing far more as a forward than I thought (especially against Essendon). While he has all the class in the world, I can't seem him scoring 3 goals every game to keep his scoring up. I am looking to make a correction while I still can. Yes, I know you were not very keen on the Bont

Macrae interests me as he now seems entrenched as the main midfielder at the Doggies. He could always find the ball but seems to have gone to another level over the second half of 2017 and the start of this season. Do you think he is likely to go over 110 from this point??
Gibbs is another one that interests me as he seems to be enjoying being back at home and playing in a much stronger team. Just checking his game count, he seems relatively durable too. While he never went over 110 at Carlton, is he good chance to do so this season at Adelaide? More importantly, do you think he can do it from this point onwards?

What do you think about these two options? I am leaning Gibbs as he is cheaper but don't mind spending the extra coin for Macrae. Are there any other options you would recommend? Or would you suggest I stick with Bont? As reference, my premium mids are currently Dusty, Titch, Parker, Fyfe and Bont + Coniglio.

Hope your season has started well. Cheers

 

[blue dreamer]

Hi Rowan,

I had Danger in my original side and went to Gazza before round 1 banking the cash to go back to Danger when he played but I have always liked Gazza and retained him without getting Danger straight back in.

So my initial trade this week was the previously planned Gazza to Danger.

The second thing here is I never considered Cogs before the season but his start is too good to totally ignore now.

Did you do any research before the season on Coniglio (if so advise where and I will look it up myself)?

I have three thoughts with Gazza:

1- keep him at least a couple of weeks as Dangers price looks likely to drop and cash is king, although this would mean having another Rookie scoring for that week or two.

Also would then tempt me to keep Gazza.

2- Just go Gazza to Danger and not worry about price fluctuations as I had this plan before the season started.

3- Go Gazza to Cogs, this would keep my Dangerbank intact for a future trade when his price drops.

SC Gold predicts Danger price going south of 600k in a few weeks, Footywire doesn't see it going below 736k.

Cogs has never averaged over 106 before, to average 115 he would need to go 113 from here which would be ok, to average 110 it's 107 from here which is probably borderline, to average 106 would go 103 from here which is probably just on the low side.

In summary did you look at his year pre season and what did you rate it, if you did have you adjusted your expectations and what do you expect of him from here on?

I have rambled a bit but am interested in your thoughts.

Thanks in advance.

 

[Abad]

I must admit, if you are that confident that the figures will be so good, it's not something that should even be up for discussion, you should just take him!
I think you are being a bit optimistic though.
You think you'd take Ablett as Captain 6-8 times in 8 games!
First, even if he averages 135 like your scenario says, he'd likely have a couple of 110 type scores in there.
Second, Geelong's "game number" for the first 8 Rounds is: 8, 9, 9, 9, 4, 2, 1, 9
That means you only get to VC Gaz 3 times in those first 8 Rounds. That stops you from "excluding" his low scores too often, and wearing the good with the bad.
What will you do if your VC scores 130?

I think you are looking at it with rose colored glasses a bit, but if you have the difference at 280, then have at it, and good luck to you!

Well the Ablett party certainly didn't last long! And didn't net me as many points as I would've liked. But at least his injured game was 92 not 32! I'll never doubt you again

So my plan of trading Ablett to Danger when Ablett went down has come a bit earlier than I would have hoped. Although Danger's still gonna go down in price, I reckon I'm gonna pull the trigger on him this week due to

- I'm not keen on any other premiums right now (I already have Laird, Savage, Mitchell, Fyfe, Cogs, Cripps, McLean, Walters, Buddy, Petracca, Robinson, Smith, Sicily) and don't reckon Dusty will have as good of a year as last year
- Dangerfield plays St Kilda at home this week
- Bringing in Dangerfield later is gonna be a nightmare and I'd love to get this problem solved now
- I'm about 700th and not many people in front of me have Danger

However, to afford bringing in Danger I'm gonna have to go Brayshaw to Keeffe (5k short of Richards/Higgins)

I'd had an eye on Keeffe all preseason and had been keeping him in mind with the possibility of bringing him in even if he's not gonna play. I think he might play at some stage (potentially this week even) with Lobb injured and Corr already been dropped this season (although Corr was brought back in as a late inclusion).

Anyway, even if Keeffe doesn't play, I'd love to get your thoughts on the idea of bringing in a floating donut like Keeffe. It might score me a few points with rookie loopholing and I love the flexibility it would give me, but I can't help think it's gonna leave me exposed later especially during the byes. Cash generation could be an issue too. I'll post my team below to give you an idea of where I'm at with that. Keeffe would also let me bring one of Bonner/Murray/Finlayson on field which is good because they're too good to be sitting on the bench and don't think I want English on field moving forward.

Your wisdom is appreciated as always mate.

 

[anfa18]

Hi Rowsus,

I'm wondering what your take is on McGovern. He hasn't impressed very much and was lucky to get away with scoring just 61 this week. He's looking like he may be heading into list clogger territory at this stage. This is the best start to a season i've ever had (currently ranked 1,361) and i'm trying to be somewhat aggressive with a few early sideways trades if necessary (last week i did Hibberd > Dusty). Do you think i should save the trade or could he be viable trade material to get say Ryan or Savage who look the goods so far? Or is there another i could look into that is on your radar?

Saving the trade could allow me to trade in a new rookie or two Richards/Henry/Crowden, depending on teams and how bad Ryan is injured.

Thanks for your insights.

 

[dicksilverman]

Hi Rowsus,

I'm wondering what your take is on McGovern. He hasn't impressed very much and was lucky to get away with scoring just 61 this week. He's looking like he may be heading into list clogger territory at this stage. This is the best start to a season i've ever had (currently ranked 1,361) and i'm trying to be somewhat aggressive with a few early sideways trades if necessary (last week i did Hibberd > Dusty). Do you think i should save the trade or could he be viable trade material to get say Ryan or Savage who look the goods so far? Or is there another i could look into that is on your radar?

Saving the trade could allow me to trade in a new rookie or two Richards/Henry/Crowden, depending on teams and how bad Ryan is injured.

Thanks for your insights.

keen to hear thoughts on this too. although i can't boast the same position as Anfa i do feel McGov is my only weak link. Ryan is my immediate thought.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Row,

Can I please get your thoughts on Macrae and Gibbs as trade-in options for Bont?
Bont has tonned up twice so far but going off the 3 games, he is playing far more as a forward than I thought (especially against Essendon). While he has all the class in the world, I can't seem him scoring 3 goals every game to keep his scoring up. I am looking to make a correction while I still can. Yes, I know you were not very keen on the Bont

Macrae interests me as he now seems entrenched as the main midfielder at the Doggies. He could always find the ball but seems to have gone to another level over the second half of 2017 and the start of this season. Do you think he is likely to go over 110 from this point??
Gibbs is another one that interests me as he seems to be enjoying being back at home and playing in a much stronger team. Just checking his game count, he seems relatively durable too. While he never went over 110 at Carlton, is he good chance to do so this season at Adelaide? More importantly, do you think he can do it from this point onwards?

What do you think about these two options? I am leaning Gibbs as he is cheaper but don't mind spending the extra coin for Macrae. Are there any other options you would recommend? Or would you suggest I stick with Bont? As reference, my premium mids are currently Dusty, Titch, Parker, Fyfe and Bont + Coniglio.

Hope your season has started well. Cheers

Hi 30B,
I don't like to discourage people from "hot" players too much, but I wouldn't be going to Macrae. I actually wouldn't be touching any Bulldogs players, outside of Defs, rookies and McLean. Macrae finished last season 8/117, and recorded a career high 107 season. In adjusted terms, he's now priced at around 120. Even if you were bullish on him coming into the season, and thought he could go 21/110, he's now reduced to 18/107. With the missing game, that PIT70's down to 105. I wouldn't pay $600k+ for a 105 Mid at this time of the season. You need to ask yourself: What did you expect from Macrae coming into the season, and what do you expect now? These two numbers shouldn't be more than about 4/game apart, and if they are, I'd be asking why have you jumped so far? Remember, the opposition always catch up to these sort of players eventually, and "slow them down", one way or another.
Gibbs is Gibbs. Good players can ride a wave sometimes, when changing clubs, but it doesn't become permanent. The injuries to the Crouch brothers is probably fortuitous, to those that started Gibbs, but I wonder what happens when they come back? The very top end of what I could have imagines for Gibbs coming into this season was 22/110, but keep in mind, players rarely reach that top end. Again, you need to ask yourself, what did you expect, and what do you expect now? These aren't new young players on the rise, and you have plenty of info to work with.
My general thoughts are, Macrae and Gibbs are well into the "good luck to those that started them, but I'm not jumping on now!" category.
I'd be more likely to hold Bont now, and assess Oliver and J Kelly, after their next price drop or two.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowan,

I had Danger in my original side and went to Gazza before round 1 banking the cash to go back to Danger when he played but I have always liked Gazza and retained him without getting Danger straight back in.

So my initial trade this week was the previously planned Gazza to Danger.

The second thing here is I never considered Cogs before the season but his start is too good to totally ignore now.

Did you do any research before the season on Coniglio (if so advise where and I will look it up myself)?

I have three thoughts with Gazza:

1- keep him at least a couple of weeks as Dangers price looks likely to drop and cash is king, although this would mean having another Rookie scoring for that week or two.

Also would then tempt me to keep Gazza.

2- Just go Gazza to Danger and not worry about price fluctuations as I had this plan before the season started.

3- Go Gazza to Cogs, this would keep my Dangerbank intact for a future trade when his price drops.

SC Gold predicts Danger price going south of 600k in a few weeks, Footywire doesn't see it going below 736k.

Cogs has never averaged over 106 before, to average 115 he would need to go 113 from here which would be ok, to average 110 it's 107 from here which is probably borderline, to average 106 would go 103 from here which is probably just on the low side.

In summary did you look at his year pre season and what did you rate it, if you did have you adjusted your expectations and what do you expect of him from here on?

I have rambled a bit but am interested in your thoughts.

Thanks in advance.

Hi Brian,
I think the answer lies in what role Gaz played in your selecting him. If he was integral to your C/VC plans, you need to replace him with Danger. If he was not necessary for you to still have good C/VC options, I'd go to Coniglio.
I was sceptical on Coniglio, and didn't start him. Last week I traded Neale to Coniglio. I think we have to take him on face value, on what he's produced so far this season, and even at his current $499,100 price, he looks like a ridiculously good value pick. Keep in mind, he topped or came 2nd GWS stats in 2016 is a lot of key areas. Disposals, Tackles, Clearances, Contested Possessions and was the best poller in the Brownlow by a clear 5 points.
I thought coming into the season he might be 105 player, but I wasn't wanting to start too many M7/8 types. I wasn't 100% sure what he might produce, but right now I'd have him in the 109/110 area, just based on him picking up where 2016 left off, and GWS improving since then.

 

[Rowsus]

Well the Ablett party certainly didn't last long! And didn't net me as many points as I would've liked. But at least his injured game was 92 not 32! I'll never doubt you again

So my plan of trading Ablett to Danger when Ablett went down has come a bit earlier than I would have hoped. Although Danger's still gonna go down in price, I reckon I'm gonna pull the trigger on him this week due to

- I'm not keen on any other premiums right now (I already have Laird, Savage, Mitchell, Fyfe, Cogs, Cripps, McLean, Walters, Buddy, Petracca, Robinson, Smith, Sicily) and don't reckon Dusty will have as good of a year as last year
- Dangerfield plays St Kilda at home this week
- Bringing in Dangerfield later is gonna be a nightmare and I'd love to get this problem solved now
- I'm about 700th and not many people in front of me have Danger

However, to afford bringing in Danger I'm gonna have to go Brayshaw to Keeffe (5k short of Richards/Higgins)

I'd had an eye on Keeffe all preseason and had been keeping him in mind with the possibility of bringing him in even if he's not gonna play. I think he might play at some stage (potentially this week even) with Lobb injured and Corr already been dropped this season (although Corr was brought back in as a late inclusion).

Anyway, even if Keeffe doesn't play, I'd love to get your thoughts on the idea of bringing in a floating donut like Keeffe. It might score me a few points with rookie loopholing and I love the flexibility it would give me, but I can't help think it's gonna leave me exposed later especially during the byes. Cash generation could be an issue too. I'll post my team below to give you an idea of where I'm at with that. Keeffe would also let me bring one of Bonner/Murray/Finlayson on field which is good because they're too good to be sitting on the bench and don't think I want English on field moving forward.

Your wisdom is appreciated as always mate.

View attachment 3829

It's funny. And I'm not saying this because I think you should follow my advice, but it seems you ask me questions, when you pretty much have your mind made up. It's like you are looking for confirmation.
I totally understand your liking of the Keeffe/Sicily link, and the Dangerfield/Keeffe trades don't look like bad trades. I just think we/you shouldn't get complacent on cash generation. Even if Keeffe is picked this week, how long will he last? I'd be more inclined to go Crowden, and leave English on the ground. It's that last $200-$300k we generate from our Rookies that can make all the difference, rather than being forced into one or two compromised picks to complete our teams.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

I'm wondering what your take is on McGovern. He hasn't impressed very much and was lucky to get away with scoring just 61 this week. He's looking like he may be heading into list clogger territory at this stage. This is the best start to a season i've ever had (currently ranked 1,361) and i'm trying to be somewhat aggressive with a few early sideways trades if necessary (last week i did Hibberd > Dusty). Do you think i should save the trade or could he be viable trade material to get say Ryan or Savage who look the goods so far? Or is there another i could look into that is on your radar?

Saving the trade could allow me to trade in a new rookie or two Richards/Henry/Crowden, depending on teams and how bad Ryan is injured.

Thanks for your insights.

keen to hear thoughts on this too. although i can't boast the same position as Anfa i do feel McGov is my only weak link. Ryan is my immediate thought.

Hi anfa18/d1ck,
I'm holding McGovern for now, with no thoughts of trading him, for the moment.
Well done on Hibberd to Dusty, anfa. My general advice to people last week on Hibberd was to get creative, while side trading to another Def was the last option, unless you were very confident that new Def would outperform Hibberd by more than 5/game from Round 3 on. I'd rather keep Hibberd, than squeeze 5 points out of someone else. The same applies to McGovern. I'd save the trade, unless you're really sold on Ryan/Savage.

 

[blue dreamer]

Hi Rowan,

I had Danger in my original side and went to Gazza before round 1 banking the cash to go back to Danger when he played but I have always liked Gazza and retained him without getting Danger straight back in.

So my initial trade this week was the previously planned Gazza to Danger.

The second thing here is I never considered Cogs before the season but his start is too good to totally ignore now.

Did you do any research before the season on Coniglio (if so advise where and I will look it up myself)?

I have three thoughts with Gazza:

1- keep him at least a couple of weeks as Dangers price looks likely to drop and cash is king, although this would mean having another Rookie scoring for that week or two.

Also would then tempt me to keep Gazza.

2- Just go Gazza to Danger and not worry about price fluctuations as I had this plan before the season started.

3- Go Gazza to Cogs, this would keep my Dangerbank intact for a future trade when his price drops.

SC Gold predicts Danger price going south of 600k in a few weeks, Footywire doesn't see it going below 736k.

Cogs has never averaged over 106 before, to average 115 he would need to go 113 from here which would be ok, to average 110 it's 107 from here which is probably borderline, to average 106 would go 103 from here which is probably just on the low side.

In summary did you look at his year pre season and what did you rate it, if you did have you adjusted your expectations and what do you expect of him from here on?

I have rambled a bit but am interested in your thoughts.

Thanks in advance.

Hi Brian,
I think the answer lies in what role Gaz played in your selecting him. If he was integral to your C/VC plans, you need to replace him with Danger. If he was not necessary for you to still have good C/VC options, I'd go to Coniglio.
I was sceptical on Coniglio, and didn't start him. Last week I traded Neale to Coniglio. I think we have to take him on face value, on what he's produced so far this season, and even at his current $499,100 price, he looks like a ridiculously good value pick. Keep in mind, he topped or came 2nd GWS stats in 2016 is a lot of key areas. Disposals, Tackles, Clearances, Contested Possessions and was the best poller in the Brownlow by a clear 5 points.
I thought coming into the season he might be 105 player, but I wasn't wanting to start too many M7/8 types. I wasn't 100% sure what he might produce, but right now I'd have him in the 109/110 area, just based on him picking up where 2016 left off, and GWS improving since then.

Hi Rowan,

Thanks for the reply.

At the moment this weeks trades are Ablett/Marchbank out for Gray (Via Sicily) and Coniglio.

Still not 100% and currently have no cover in fwds (Ryan & Fogarty) but they can wait a week rather than need to put two more rookies on field this week.

Don't think any of the bubble boys this week are absolutely screamimg "pick me" although a couple have had enough interest for consideration.

 

[Slammer]

Hi Rows,

As expected I struggled last week.
Need to offload Armitage and I am guessing like many others Ryan due to his injury.
Had planned to try and use Armitage to get to Danger but doesn’t look like happening.
With TKelly and Holman holding down M7/8 at the moment I need to improve fwd line.
Looking at RGray. Have Rayner, Fritsch, Ryan & Langdon to deal with.
Need to find another Rookie though as I do not have enough to go Armitage to Gray
Finding it hard to bring another Rookie with shaky JS though.
So equation I have is Armitage and Ryan for Gray and Crowden
Only leaves approx. $40k though which blows all plans out the water for Danger
But left with no choice really as Fwd line is struggling.
Do you think Crowden is best Rookie to grab now? And Gray will hold form?

 

[Zoku Pops]

Hi mate, with Gaz now out for what could be a month or so and Geelong's upcoming run of games at home, is getting Danger something you will be fast tracking?

The plan to not start him, whilst Gaz was playing, was looking rock solid but his ill-timed injury means there's no reason why Danger won't be the Danger of old for the foreseeable​ future meaning his fall in price won't be as great as what we thought it would be half way through the Eagles game.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rows,

As expected I struggled last week.
Need to offload Armitage and I am guessing like many others Ryan due to his injury.
Had planned to try and use Armitage to get to Danger but doesn’t look like happening.
With TKelly and Holman holding down M7/8 at the moment I need to improve fwd line.
Looking at RGray. Have Rayner, Fritsch, Ryan & Langdon to deal with.
Need to find another Rookie though as I do not have enough to go Armitage to Gray
Finding it hard to bring another Rookie with shaky JS though.
So equation I have is Armitage and Ryan for Gray and Crowden
Only leaves approx. $40k though which blows all plans out the water for Danger
But left with no choice really as Fwd line is struggling.
Do you think Crowden is best Rookie to grab now? And Gray will hold form?

Hey Slam,
after looking at your team, and of course selections pending, I think they are the two trades I'd run with.
I think an avenue to Danger will open up, somewhere down the track.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi mate, with Gaz now out for what could be a month or so and Geelong's upcoming run of games at home, is getting Danger something you will be fast tracking?

The plan to not start him, whilst Gaz was playing, was looking rock solid but his ill-timed injury means there's no reason why Danger won't be the Danger of old for the foreseeable​ future meaning his fall in price won't be as great as what we thought it would be half way through the Eagles game.

Hi ZP,
Ablett was certainly a large part of why I didn't start Danger, but for now, I will be sticking with my plan to target him a little later on. I still hold hope, that I can pick him up for about $630k ........... of course, that might be in Round 19!

 

[lappinitup]

Row,
Love your thoughts.

Roughead really struggling up forward. Options I have, in preference order:

1) Hold, he started to look solid last week on rance. 6 clangers killed his score! No trades used, hold Ryan to asses ZGL or Balta one more week. (Don’t love the options on bubble)
2) downgrade Ryan to playing rookie, Roughead to McLean/Heeney. 2 trades
3)downgrade Ryan to Balta (opens Ruck link with English and chance to play soon) Roughead up. 2 trades
4) rough to Curnow, sideways. 1 trade and hold Ryan to asses ZGL or Balta one more week.