Discussion 2019: Super Early Player & SC Game Change Discussion
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Something to keep an eye on next year. What a tank though!
MELBOURNE midfielder Clayton Oliver will have a delayed start to pre-season, with the gun onballer to have surgery on both of his shoulders in the coming weeks.
Oliver revealed the news to AFL.com.au on the Brownlow red carpet just days after the Demons' disappointing 66-point preliminary final loss to West Coast.
"I'm having two shoulder 'recos' (reconstructions) so I'll be on the couch most of the time," Oliver said.
Demons football manager Josh Mahoney confirmed the midfielder had been booked in for the procedures, with Oliver not beginning contact training until January at the earliest.
"Clayton injured both his shoulders during the year and will require surgery. He will have a latarjet operation on both shoulders," Mahoney said.
"It's not as significant as a full shoulder reconstruction, but Clayton will need a 2-3 week separation between the procedures.
"He was unable to complete many contact drills at training in the last two months, so to perform the way that he did in that period is remarkable."
Geelong champion Gary Ablett had a similar operation in May 2016, which saw the then Gold Coast Sun have a piece of bone and muscle removed from elsewhere in his shoulder and screwed to the front of the joint, acting as a block to stop it from dislocating again.
Ablett missed between three and four months in his recovery from the surgery.
Oliver, enjoyed a superb 2018 season, winning his first All Australian guernsey on his way to averaging 29.4 disposals and 6.5 clearances per game.
MELBOURNE midfielder Clayton Oliver will have a delayed start to pre-season, with the gun onballer to have surgery on both of his shoulders in the coming weeks.
Oliver revealed the news to AFL.com.au on the Brownlow red carpet just days after the Demons' disappointing 66-point preliminary final loss to West Coast.
"I'm having two shoulder 'recos' (reconstructions) so I'll be on the couch most of the time," Oliver said.
Demons football manager Josh Mahoney confirmed the midfielder had been booked in for the procedures, with Oliver not beginning contact training until January at the earliest.
"Clayton injured both his shoulders during the year and will require surgery. He will have a latarjet operation on both shoulders," Mahoney said.
"It's not as significant as a full shoulder reconstruction, but Clayton will need a 2-3 week separation between the procedures.
"He was unable to complete many contact drills at training in the last two months, so to perform the way that he did in that period is remarkable."
Geelong champion Gary Ablett had a similar operation in May 2016, which saw the then Gold Coast Sun have a piece of bone and muscle removed from elsewhere in his shoulder and screwed to the front of the joint, acting as a block to stop it from dislocating again.
Ablett missed between three and four months in his recovery from the surgery.
Oliver, enjoyed a superb 2018 season, winning his first All Australian guernsey on his way to averaging 29.4 disposals and 6.5 clearances per game.
Early look at Collingwood players next year:
Defence:
1. Jack Crisp
2. Jeremy Howe
Crisp will be interesting, clearly looks better without Murray taking the ball at half back. Howe could also be an option
Midfield:
1. Taylor Adams
2. Adam Treloar
3. Brayden Sier
Pendles/sidebottom etc all not worth considering. SIer worth a look and could pull Oliver but don't think worth the gamble, could ruin season. Treloar was shaping up as a durable top 8 midfielder this year before injury, not sure if worth it with so many players fighting for onball minutes. You'd think Sier and Adams will be the 2 most frequent on-ball players. Treloar is a maybe if Pendles leave the midfield engine. Taylor Adams is the interesting one, averaged 96.4, but clearly has shown potential to average 110+, very interesting pick, contends with Martin as the M6 value selection.
Ruck:
1. Brodie Grundy
Is anyone not starting him next year? Will be pricy but maybe he deserves the price?
Forward:
Lol just forget it. Very even forward line, noone pushing 95+. Hard to see a rookie breaking into team as well. Nothing here.
Defence:
1. Jack Crisp
2. Jeremy Howe
Crisp will be interesting, clearly looks better without Murray taking the ball at half back. Howe could also be an option
Midfield:
1. Taylor Adams
2. Adam Treloar
3. Brayden Sier
Pendles/sidebottom etc all not worth considering. SIer worth a look and could pull Oliver but don't think worth the gamble, could ruin season. Treloar was shaping up as a durable top 8 midfielder this year before injury, not sure if worth it with so many players fighting for onball minutes. You'd think Sier and Adams will be the 2 most frequent on-ball players. Treloar is a maybe if Pendles leave the midfield engine. Taylor Adams is the interesting one, averaged 96.4, but clearly has shown potential to average 110+, very interesting pick, contends with Martin as the M6 value selection.
Ruck:
1. Brodie Grundy
Is anyone not starting him next year? Will be pricy but maybe he deserves the price?
Forward:
Lol just forget it. Very even forward line, noone pushing 95+. Hard to see a rookie breaking into team as well. Nothing here.
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J Crisp:
2018 Disposals Avg: 23.23
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 24: 109 from 8 (low of 83 and a high of 128, 2/8 below 100)
SC Avg when disposals below 24: 88.21 from 14 (low of 64 and a high of 117, 10/14 below 100)
2018 Marks Avg: 5.05
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 6: 113.13 from 8 (1/8 below 100)
SC Avg when disposals below 6: 85.86 from 14 (11/14 below 100)
Avg with S Murray: 91.38 from 13 (8/13 below 90, 8/13 below 100)
Avg without S Murray: 102.11 from 9 (1/9 below 90, 4/9 below 100)
2017 to 2018 Stat Differences:
Marks:
2017: 5.55
2018: 5.23
Contested Possession Rate:
2017: 32.56%
2018: 35.27%
Percentage of disposals that are kicks:
2017: 52.64%
2018: 56.07%
Disposal Efficiency:
2017: 74%
2018: 77.2%
Time On Ground:
2017: 83.09 from 22
2018: 89.27 from 26
2018 Wins Avg: 97.13 from 15
2018 Losses Avg: 92.86 from 7
2018 Pre Bye: 96.42 from 12
2018 Post Bye: 95 from 10
T Adams:
2018 Pre Bye: 86 from 9
2019 Post Bye: 105.7 from 10
2018 Disposals Avg: 26.47
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 27: 107.27 from 11 (low of 81 and a high of 126, 2/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 27: 81.38 from 8 (low of 45 and a high of 120, 7/8 below 100)
2018 Tackles Avg: 4.89
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 5: 111.13 from 8 (low of 77 and a high of 126, 1/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 5: 85.64 from 11 (low of 45 and a high of 114, 8/11 below 100)
2017 to 2018 Stat Differences (including finals):
Disposals:
2017: 29.5
2018: 26.96
Tackles:
2017: 6.36
2018: 5.22
Contested Possessions:
2017: 11.68
2018: 13.22
B Grundy:
2018 Disposals Avg: 20.8
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 21: 142.58 from 12 (low of 109 and a high of 167, 9/12 120+, 7/12 150+)
SC Avg when disposals below 21: 115.9 from 10 (low of 95 and a high of 139, 3/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)
2018 Contested Possessions Avg: 12.4
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 13: 146.92 from 12 (low of 113 and a high of 167, 12/13 120+, 7/13 150+)
SC Avg when disposals below 13: 110.7 from 10 (low of 95 and a high of 134, 3/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)
2018 Hitouts to Advantage Avg: 12.3
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 13: 143.4 from 10 (low of 110 and a high of 167, 9/10 120+, 5/10 150+)
SC Avg when disposals below 13: 119.67 from 12 (low of 95 and a high of 154, 3/12 below 100, 4/12 120+, 2/12 150+)
2018 Wins Avg: 130.73 from 15 (low of 98 and a high of 162, 1/15 below 100, 9/15 120+)
2018 Losses Avg: 129.86 from 7 (low of 95 and a high of 167, 2/7 below 100, 4/7 120+)
Pre Bye: 124.75 from 12 (2/12 below 100, 6/12 120+)
Post Bye: 137.3 from 10 (1/10 below 100, 7/10 120+)
2018 Disposals Avg: 23.23
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 24: 109 from 8 (low of 83 and a high of 128, 2/8 below 100)
SC Avg when disposals below 24: 88.21 from 14 (low of 64 and a high of 117, 10/14 below 100)
2018 Marks Avg: 5.05
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 6: 113.13 from 8 (1/8 below 100)
SC Avg when disposals below 6: 85.86 from 14 (11/14 below 100)
Avg with S Murray: 91.38 from 13 (8/13 below 90, 8/13 below 100)
Avg without S Murray: 102.11 from 9 (1/9 below 90, 4/9 below 100)
2017 to 2018 Stat Differences:
Marks:
2017: 5.55
2018: 5.23
Contested Possession Rate:
2017: 32.56%
2018: 35.27%
Percentage of disposals that are kicks:
2017: 52.64%
2018: 56.07%
Disposal Efficiency:
2017: 74%
2018: 77.2%
Time On Ground:
2017: 83.09 from 22
2018: 89.27 from 26
2018 Wins Avg: 97.13 from 15
2018 Losses Avg: 92.86 from 7
2018 Pre Bye: 96.42 from 12
2018 Post Bye: 95 from 10
T Adams:
2018 Pre Bye: 86 from 9
2019 Post Bye: 105.7 from 10
2018 Disposals Avg: 26.47
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 27: 107.27 from 11 (low of 81 and a high of 126, 2/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 27: 81.38 from 8 (low of 45 and a high of 120, 7/8 below 100)
2018 Tackles Avg: 4.89
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 5: 111.13 from 8 (low of 77 and a high of 126, 1/7 below 100, 3/7 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 5: 85.64 from 11 (low of 45 and a high of 114, 8/11 below 100)
2017 to 2018 Stat Differences (including finals):
Disposals:
2017: 29.5
2018: 26.96
Tackles:
2017: 6.36
2018: 5.22
Contested Possessions:
2017: 11.68
2018: 13.22
B Grundy:
2018 Disposals Avg: 20.8
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 21: 142.58 from 12 (low of 109 and a high of 167, 9/12 120+, 7/12 150+)
SC Avg when disposals below 21: 115.9 from 10 (low of 95 and a high of 139, 3/10 below 100, 4/10 120+)
2018 Contested Possessions Avg: 12.4
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 13: 146.92 from 12 (low of 113 and a high of 167, 12/13 120+, 7/13 150+)
SC Avg when disposals below 13: 110.7 from 10 (low of 95 and a high of 134, 3/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)
2018 Hitouts to Advantage Avg: 12.3
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 13: 143.4 from 10 (low of 110 and a high of 167, 9/10 120+, 5/10 150+)
SC Avg when disposals below 13: 119.67 from 12 (low of 95 and a high of 154, 3/12 below 100, 4/12 120+, 2/12 150+)
2018 Wins Avg: 130.73 from 15 (low of 98 and a high of 162, 1/15 below 100, 9/15 120+)
2018 Losses Avg: 129.86 from 7 (low of 95 and a high of 167, 2/7 below 100, 4/7 120+)
Pre Bye: 124.75 from 12 (2/12 below 100, 6/12 120+)
Post Bye: 137.3 from 10 (1/10 below 100, 7/10 120+)
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I think it's actually quite UNLIKELY for Grundy's draw to look not friendly right? When you're so much better than everyone else (but Gawn), it makes your opponents week in week out seem really easy.
From what I've seen this year, for Grundy:
Hard opponents:
1. Melbourne-Gawn
Medium opponents:
1. Brisbane-Martin
2. Fremantle-Sandilands
3. West Coast-Naitanui
Just about every other team/ruck combo would be considered "favourable draw" for Grundy surely.
From what I've seen this year, for Grundy:
Hard opponents:
1. Melbourne-Gawn
Medium opponents:
1. Brisbane-Martin
2. Fremantle-Sandilands
3. West Coast-Naitanui
Just about every other team/ruck combo would be considered "favourable draw" for Grundy surely.
Grundy is going to be $717,000 in 2019, or there abouts.
It's very hard to justify spending over $640,000 on a Ruck, given their back up history.
In 2015 Goldy averaged 129, and it seemed around 90% of the people here assumed he would be a SC staple for years to come. Many posted that they couldn't imagine he'd go below 115 in 2016.
2016 Rnd 1 he cost $695,100 ........ he averaged 108.
Paying over the equivalent of 115 for a Ruck is madness, in my view. There is just too little history of any of them backing up that sort of price, from one year to the next.
It's very hard to justify spending over $640,000 on a Ruck, given their back up history.
In 2015 Goldy averaged 129, and it seemed around 90% of the people here assumed he would be a SC staple for years to come. Many posted that they couldn't imagine he'd go below 115 in 2016.
2016 Rnd 1 he cost $695,100 ........ he averaged 108.
Paying over the equivalent of 115 for a Ruck is madness, in my view. There is just too little history of any of them backing up that sort of price, from one year to the next.
You’d be surprised! I remember doing and reading the numbers and was shocked at how often it happens. I think Gawn was the exception to the rule this year though.
The one thing I like about Grundy is his ability to get the ball around the ground, which makes him far less prone to really low scores if he’s not getting any HTA.
The one thing I like about Grundy is his ability to get the ball around the ground, which makes him far less prone to really low scores if he’s not getting any HTA.
Agree. Also, alot of rucks that we remember (Goldstein, Jacobs, Martin) were hit by the rule change of HTA scoring, so even if their outputs didn't really change by much, their score did!
We also saw a rise in the top end scoring this year, whether they added something extra to the scoring formula i'm not sure.
Although, quite confident all of Grundy's scores will fall inbetween 90-175 next year, with an average of 125-135!
We also saw a rise in the top end scoring this year, whether they added something extra to the scoring formula i'm not sure.
Although, quite confident all of Grundy's scores will fall inbetween 90-175 next year, with an average of 125-135!
It's gonna be quite tricky to start both Grundy and Gawn. I'd probably do it if I could get away with it but seems unlikely. Preuss at the Dees would be a concern too re starting Gawn.
Hoping there's a decent R/F option or cheap ruck option. Perhaps Lobb if he stays at GWS? Preuss not at North or Dees? In the last two seasons, Witts and Lycett have been very successful. If Preuss gets to somewhere like the Saints, I'd start him! So still a lot to play out before I can lock in either Gawn or Grundy.
Hoping there's a decent R/F option or cheap ruck option. Perhaps Lobb if he stays at GWS? Preuss not at North or Dees? In the last two seasons, Witts and Lycett have been very successful. If Preuss gets to somewhere like the Saints, I'd start him! So still a lot to play out before I can lock in either Gawn or Grundy.
Yeah it was a really strange one. He was scoring at such a high level that I held off on grabbing him thinking he would come down at some stage, which he never did. And while all the other premium ruckman struggled he continued to pour points on beyond a level we've seen from a ruckman since maybe the Cox days.
It will be a big decision to start/not start him next year. If he's the number 1 SC player in the comp, in particular as a ruckman, he could work out to be a massive year long POD. At least in the Ablett/Danger days you kinda felt like the gap wasn't so big if you could nail a couple of value mid fielders but in the ruck you've got far less options. With only one year's data, most traditionalists won't be keen but personally i think i'll be on him and will compromise probably in my backline where there looks to be a bit of value.
It will be a big decision to start/not start him next year. If he's the number 1 SC player in the comp, in particular as a ruckman, he could work out to be a massive year long POD. At least in the Ablett/Danger days you kinda felt like the gap wasn't so big if you could nail a couple of value mid fielders but in the ruck you've got far less options. With only one year's data, most traditionalists won't be keen but personally i think i'll be on him and will compromise probably in my backline where there looks to be a bit of value.
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