Discussion 2019: Super Early Player & SC Game Change Discussion
- Thread starter IDIG
- Start date
- Status
- Joined
- 3 Jul 2017
- Messages
- 38,963
- Likes
- 126,636
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
A Hall:
Time in centre:
2017: 46%
2018: 9%
Time on wing:
2017: 39%
2018: 41%
Time in forward:
2017: 14%
2018: 20%
Time in defence:
2017: 1%
2018: 30%
Disposals:
2017: 26.7
2018: 18.5
Metres gained avg:
2017: 522
2018: 367
Score involvements:
2017: 6.1
2018: 2.3
Time spent in midfield (centre+wing) in 2017 was 85% which decreased to 50% in 2018 as well as disposals dropping by 8.
Time in centre:
2017: 46%
2018: 9%
Time on wing:
2017: 39%
2018: 41%
Time in forward:
2017: 14%
2018: 20%
Time in defence:
2017: 1%
2018: 30%
Disposals:
2017: 26.7
2018: 18.5
Metres gained avg:
2017: 522
2018: 367
Score involvements:
2017: 6.1
2018: 2.3
Time spent in midfield (centre+wing) in 2017 was 85% which decreased to 50% in 2018 as well as disposals dropping by 8.
Let's look at Rucks from 2010 to 2017. Keep in mind averaging 110+, but missing a lot of games, still counts as a failed pick, in my mind anyway.
Rucks that have averaged 110+, and how they performed in the following season.
2010
Sandilands - 19/114, followed up with 13/111, then 12/113.
Sandi started season 2011 with a bang. He went 8/123 up to Round 9 (Freo had a bye in Round 6.). Then wheels fell off. Questionable as to whether he was a good pick. Let's call it a line ball, given you were inconvenienced, and then forced to trade him.
After averaging 111 in 2011, he started 4/123 in 2012, but then you were forced to trade him.
2011
Cox - 22/122, and followed up with 22/112, then 22/107.
In 2012 his price quickly fell from an opening $662,600 to $542,600 by round 7. Starting without him, and then upgrading to him would have been ok thing to do. In 2013 his price drop wasn't so dramatic, but his output still dropped.
Goldy - 21/113, followed up with 20/93
Mummy - 17/113, followed up with 14/91
Sandi - 13/111, then 12/113 see above.
2012
Cox - 22/112, followed up with 22/107. Borderline success, given others were cheaper in 2013, but performed similarly.
NicNat - 20/114, followed up with 11/96
Maric - 20/113, followed by 19/97
2013
Goldy - 22/114, followed by 21/107
Minson - 22/114, followed by 21/93
2014
Mummy - 17/114, followed by 11/106
Jacobs - 22/115, followed 21/108
Martin - 12/112, followed by 20/111
2015
Goldy - 21/129, followed by 21/108
2016
Gawn - 22/119, followed by 13/92
2017
Kreuzer - 21/110 (109.8), followed by 12/80
So there you have 16 109.8+ seasons over the previous 8 years.
I'm just wondering how many are considered good picks the following year?
1, maybe 2, then another 2 that were "ok".
You say it is a limited sample, but 16 is a reasonable amount, and a 25% strike rate of being ok or better is pretty poor!
Rucks that have averaged 110+, and how they performed in the following season.
2010
Sandilands - 19/114, followed up with 13/111, then 12/113.
Sandi started season 2011 with a bang. He went 8/123 up to Round 9 (Freo had a bye in Round 6.). Then wheels fell off. Questionable as to whether he was a good pick. Let's call it a line ball, given you were inconvenienced, and then forced to trade him.
After averaging 111 in 2011, he started 4/123 in 2012, but then you were forced to trade him.
2011
Cox - 22/122, and followed up with 22/112, then 22/107.
In 2012 his price quickly fell from an opening $662,600 to $542,600 by round 7. Starting without him, and then upgrading to him would have been ok thing to do. In 2013 his price drop wasn't so dramatic, but his output still dropped.
Goldy - 21/113, followed up with 20/93
Mummy - 17/113, followed up with 14/91
Sandi - 13/111, then 12/113 see above.
2012
Cox - 22/112, followed up with 22/107. Borderline success, given others were cheaper in 2013, but performed similarly.
NicNat - 20/114, followed up with 11/96
Maric - 20/113, followed by 19/97
2013
Goldy - 22/114, followed by 21/107
Minson - 22/114, followed by 21/93
2014
Mummy - 17/114, followed by 11/106
Jacobs - 22/115, followed 21/108
Martin - 12/112, followed by 20/111
2015
Goldy - 21/129, followed by 21/108
2016
Gawn - 22/119, followed by 13/92
2017
Kreuzer - 21/110 (109.8), followed by 12/80
So there you have 16 109.8+ seasons over the previous 8 years.
I'm just wondering how many are considered good picks the following year?
1, maybe 2, then another 2 that were "ok".
You say it is a limited sample, but 16 is a reasonable amount, and a 25% strike rate of being ok or better is pretty poor!
This evidence does seem quite compelling doesn't it. Although I'd argue that the most recent examples (2015, 2016, 2017) were all heavily injury affected. 2014 was a case of a clear change in ruck scoring. If anything Gawn in 2016 and Kreuzer in 2017 aren't even relevant data.
I'm not sure how relevant is of players from 5+ years ago either, completely different scoring system.
I do agree statistically it doesn't look good for Grundy. But unless we can back up data with sufficient statistical inference, data itself is no good.
I'm not sure how relevant is of players from 5+ years ago either, completely different scoring system.
I do agree statistically it doesn't look good for Grundy. But unless we can back up data with sufficient statistical inference, data itself is no good.
One of the things I tend to think with Rucks, is not many can play consecutive 21+ game seasons.
It's physically the hardest position on the ground, with so much bash and crash.
Combine that, with that is harder for taller players to maintain a high level of fitness/stay injury free, and it is not surprising that many of the following seasons were injury affected.
I think you have to factor that into your thinking, as it happens so often!
It's physically the hardest position on the ground, with so much bash and crash.
Combine that, with that is harder for taller players to maintain a high level of fitness/stay injury free, and it is not surprising that many of the following seasons were injury affected.
I think you have to factor that into your thinking, as it happens so often!
The interesting thing I found if you don't start Grundy & Gawn who then do you start ?
Martin , McEvoy & Goldstein were the only others to average 100 + for the season but they will be priced around $ 550,000.00
Can Abbott be Number 1 at Geelong ? , estimated price $ 348,887.14.
Can Vardy at WCE be trusted each week ? estimated $ 313,736.38.
LITS mentioned Zac Clarke as a possibility.
If Lobb moves and gets ruck status he will be priced at $ 421,463.42.
What happens at the Giants ? bring back Mummy , trust Simpson , try Matthew Flynn or recruit Preuss or Tom Nicholls (remember him)
Sure will provide some interesting thoughts and discussion over the pre-season.
Martin , McEvoy & Goldstein were the only others to average 100 + for the season but they will be priced around $ 550,000.00
Can Abbott be Number 1 at Geelong ? , estimated price $ 348,887.14.
Can Vardy at WCE be trusted each week ? estimated $ 313,736.38.
LITS mentioned Zac Clarke as a possibility.
If Lobb moves and gets ruck status he will be priced at $ 421,463.42.
What happens at the Giants ? bring back Mummy , trust Simpson , try Matthew Flynn or recruit Preuss or Tom Nicholls (remember him)
Sure will provide some interesting thoughts and discussion over the pre-season.
Fair enough, although if you want to make analogies,
Mumford is like JPK
Grundy is like T Mitchell
Grundy gets possessions actually quite cleanly around contests, so there really isn't that much bash and crash involved, really surprised some of their disposals were actually considered to be contested when he had so much space. So imagine my surprise when I see Grundy/Mitchell CP count after watching the game!
Also interesting to note that Grundy has not had any major/medium term injuries for the last 4 years, don't think you can say that about any other ruck in the comp except for maybe Sam Jacobs?
Mumford is like JPK
Grundy is like T Mitchell
Grundy gets possessions actually quite cleanly around contests, so there really isn't that much bash and crash involved, really surprised some of their disposals were actually considered to be contested when he had so much space. So imagine my surprise when I see Grundy/Mitchell CP count after watching the game!
Also interesting to note that Grundy has not had any major/medium term injuries for the last 4 years, don't think you can say that about any other ruck in the comp except for maybe Sam Jacobs?
I suggest you re-watch the first quarter of the Grand Final. Grundy finished the quarter with 1 disposal, 10 Hitouts and 6 SC points.
The biggest thing that stuck out to me in that quarter is, that the WC Rucks were making a concerted effort to jump "into" Grundy. To me it was a good tactic, and seemed to have an affect on him.
If you don't think he suffers much bash and crash, watch those 1st quarter Ruck contests!
The biggest thing that stuck out to me in that quarter is, that the WC Rucks were making a concerted effort to jump "into" Grundy. To me it was a good tactic, and seemed to have an affect on him.
If you don't think he suffers much bash and crash, watch those 1st quarter Ruck contests!
Another interesting point to look at is the amount of time off the ruckman get in the off-season to recover. As the ones that play finals have less time to recover. I have only had a quick look at the work done in this post but it looks like most of the number 1 ruckman didn’t play finals the year before and the previous number one did and fell off the pace.
Coaches have a say. A pair of ruckmen or a negating ruckmen seem to have a better premiership record and coaches are always talking about the sole ruckmen needing help.
And injuries are also a factor. Injuries to the supporting cast can leave a ruckmen on their own, such as Kreuzer last year or the draw can open up because opposition teams lose their first choice ruckman. Goldy's massive score a few years ago was against McKernan.
Even if an R2 doesn't appreciate much in price they still give you a good look at who should be in your team.
And injuries are also a factor. Injuries to the supporting cast can leave a ruckmen on their own, such as Kreuzer last year or the draw can open up because opposition teams lose their first choice ruckman. Goldy's massive score a few years ago was against McKernan.
Even if an R2 doesn't appreciate much in price they still give you a good look at who should be in your team.
Yeah surely Grundy getting double teamed is an anomaly and infrequent at best even teams put more research into Grundy/Gawn.
West Coast was one of the only two team in the top 8 that played 2 rucks instead of having 1 main and 1 support, the other being Hawthorn with Mcenvoy/Ceglar.
Not sure if the tactic was overly effective either, visually speaking I agree it affected Grundy's taps. But in terms of scoring, Grundy still averaged 128.5 across Lycett + Vardy over 2 finals games.
Throughout the year I can't see Grundy having more physical strain than someone like Patrick Cripps/Clayton Oliver who literally had to fight for every possession. At least Grundy has some degree of protection in ruck contests.
But I do see your point that the nature of the ruck role making it difficult to backup a very good season (Or the #1 Supercoach players in Grundy's case).
Alot of your points are common with both Grundy and Gawn, with Gawn having had more injury concerns than Grundy over the year and just more injuries throughout his career. So I'm assuming you don't plan on starting Gawn either?
West Coast was one of the only two team in the top 8 that played 2 rucks instead of having 1 main and 1 support, the other being Hawthorn with Mcenvoy/Ceglar.
Not sure if the tactic was overly effective either, visually speaking I agree it affected Grundy's taps. But in terms of scoring, Grundy still averaged 128.5 across Lycett + Vardy over 2 finals games.
Throughout the year I can't see Grundy having more physical strain than someone like Patrick Cripps/Clayton Oliver who literally had to fight for every possession. At least Grundy has some degree of protection in ruck contests.
But I do see your point that the nature of the ruck role making it difficult to backup a very good season (Or the #1 Supercoach players in Grundy's case).
Alot of your points are common with both Grundy and Gawn, with Gawn having had more injury concerns than Grundy over the year and just more injuries throughout his career. So I'm assuming you don't plan on starting Gawn either?
- Status