Position Rucks Discussion

[Torress]

I haven't even considered not starting gawn/grundy yet. Will be top 2 again if remain fit

 

[toxic]

I haven't even considered not starting gawn/grundy yet. Will be top 2 again if remain fit

Have any 2 rucks ever backed up the next season as No1 and No2 again?

 

[Rowsus]

Have any 2 rucks ever backed up the next season as No1 and No2 again?

No

 

[blue dreamer]

Have any 2 rucks ever backed up the next season as No1 and No2 again?

No

Very concise Rowan.

Personally looking at Grundy, Mummy (with Westhoff as a fwd/swingman), if cash allows might be Grundy/Kreuzer but as a carlton supporter and given our injury luck of 2018 seems to be continuing don't want to mozz Kreuze

 

[pizza safety]

Has there ever been a bigger gap between the top 2 rucks and the 3rd best ruck going into a season before?

 

[Bermi]

Shane Mumford's pre-season has been interrupted by a hamstring strain suffered in the week leading up to the club's summer break.
Mumford sustained the low-grade strain in training days before Christmas, and is expected to return in late January, weeks after the rest of the playing group resume training on January 9.
Mumford was on a modified training module when he endured the injury given his age (32) and lack of conditioning due to his hiatus from the game in 2018.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...f=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_sport_afl

 

[Bermi]

Has there ever been a bigger gap between the top 2 rucks and the 3rd best ruck going into a season before?

I think that should be considered when comparing previous ruckmen years.
I vaguely remember Cox and Sandilands dominating for a while, but don't know who the 3rd best ruckman was then.
I reckon, SuperCoaches are putting too much emphasis on Preuss taking points away from Gawn. Cox didn't do it to Grundy.

 

[pizza safety]

I think that should be considered when comparing previous ruckmen years.
I vaguely remember Cox and Sandilands dominating for a while, but don't know who the 3rd best ruckman was then.
I reckon, SuperCoaches are putting too much emphasis on Preuss taking points away from Gawn. Cox didn't do it to Grundy.

That's what I also think Bermi, I tend to think there are deeper reasons why some players don't back up good play, rather than iron-clad rules. Although the ruck position is less stable and difficult to back up, the reasons for this are complex and difficult to pinpoint outside of injury (as was the case with the top 2 from 2017).

I think the one thing with Cox that was a little overlooked is he didn't play as much ruck time in 2018, highlighted by the fact that he is a forward only in 2019. Because Collingwood lacked a big key forward they were happy to play him more as a forward, whilst I think Preuss's best football is as a ruckman and he will be rotating more often with Gawn than Cox did with Grundy. Gawn also gets more points from hitouts than Grundy, rather than his around the ground work. However, Grundy only averages about 1 more uncontested possession per game than Gawn and gets a lot of his points from follow up contested work and tackles at stoppages, so maybe that doesn't have too much of an impact.

I'm not in favour of picking both because of the cost and the fact I think Gawn will drop off a little but I'll be looking to convert Nankervis into Gawn after Gawn's bye and starting Grundy.

I also feel that Gawn falls into that injury category that historically troubles ruckmen.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

That's what I also think Bermi, I tend to think there are deeper reasons why some players don't back up good play, rather than iron-clad rules. Although the ruck position is less stable and difficult to back up, the reasons for this are complex and difficult to pinpoint outside of injury (as was the case with the top 2 from last year).

I think the one thing with Cox that was a little overlooked is he didn't play as much ruck time this year, highlighted by the fact that he is a forward only next year. Because Collingwood lacked a big key forward they were happy to play him more as a forward, whilst I think Preuss's best football is as a ruckman and he will be rotating more often with Gawn than Cox did with Grundy. Gawn also gets more points from hitouts than Grundy, rather than his around the ground work. However, Grundy only averages about 1 more uncontested possession per game than Gawn and gets a lot of his points from follow up contested work and tackles at stoppages, so maybe that doesn't have too much of an impact.

I'm not in favour of picking both because of the cost and the fact I think Gawn will drop off a little but I'll be looking to convert Nankervis into Gawn after Gawn's bye and starting Grundy.

I also feel that Gawn falls into that injury category that historically troubles ruckmen.

On Gawn, I also have a sneaky suspicion that he may get rested occasionally and with confidence that Preuss can fill in for him. This would probably depend on injury/niggles, but it wouldn't surprise me if it happened a couple of times towards the end of the season to keep him fresh.... something to keep in mind.

 

[pizza safety]

On Gawn, I also have a sneaky suspicion that he may get rested occasionally and with confidence that Preuss can fill in for him. This would probably depend on injury/niggles, but it wouldn't surprise me if it happened a couple of times towards the end of the season to keep him fresh.... something to keep in mind.

Yeah I think this makes a lot of sense. I get the feeling they would have rested him at the end of last year if there was a decent back up option. Maybe Gawn is a bit of a risky guy to bring in late in the season?

 

[Hondo]

Have any 2 rucks ever backed up the next season as No1 and No2 again?

I’ve looked into this before and looked back over the last 10 seasons or so

The main reason the top 1/2 don’t back up is injury. One or both suffer a serious injury.

Once a ruck is in his prime years / fantasy sweet spot he mostly scores at that top end level. They just don’t stay on the park consistently year on year. It’s a tough position to play year on year out.

There are occasional spikes unpredictable one o***, but mostly the drop o*** are injury related.

So you have to predict which of Gawn or Grundy will cop the injury curse.

 

[pizza safety]

I’ve looked into this before and looked back over the last 10 seasons or so

The main reason the top 1/2 don’t back up is injury. One or both suffer a serious injury.

Once a ruck is in his prime years / fantasy sweet spot he mostly scores at that top end level. They just don’t stay on the park consistently year on year. It’s a tough position to play year on year out.

There are occasional spikes unpredictable one o***, but mostly the drop o*** are injury related.

So you have to predict which of Gawn or Grundy will cop the injury curse.

Yeah that's basically what I've seen as well. Other players have seen other rucks come in, have peaked quite late in their career or in the case of Goldy have had some personal issues. Grundy is pretty reliable for a ruckman and Gawn has historically been less reliable. I'm therefore picking Grundy.

 

[pizza safety]

I’ve looked into this before and looked back over the last 10 seasons or so

The main reason the top 1/2 don’t back up is injury. One or both suffer a serious injury.

Once a ruck is in his prime years / fantasy sweet spot he mostly scores at that top end level. They just don’t stay on the park consistently year on year. It’s a tough position to play year on year out.

There are occasional spikes unpredictable one o***, but mostly the drop o*** are injury related.

So you have to predict which of Gawn or Grundy will cop the injury curse.

Also worth wondering whether Westhoff is worth starting after all even if he drops off. If a ruck misses a week and he can sub in you will get an extra 60 from a rookie forward, which effectively bumps his average up by 2.7 per game (if he plays 22 games), if he comes in 4 times that effectively bumps his average up by more than 10. A 90 average becomes a 100 average if he subs in 4 times. This is not true if we can find a rookie ruckman who is likely to play, but I think that's unlikely.

On paper Westhoff is not a good pick because of his age and him peaking late even though I've done the research and shown on here that him getting hitouts was basically unrelated to his scoring last season. Probably worth picking him up asap if he's doing ok instead of starting him and ensuring you have r/f on your ruck bench. I originally dismissed him but I'm rethinking it now.

Edit: it might be a little inaccurate to say ruck work didn't contribute to Westhoff's average last year as the raw stats seems to indicate that it did https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/J/Justin_Westhoff.html
However, game to game hitout numbers had little to nothing to do with his scores, meaning that when he had less hitouts he simply found other ways to score (more disposals, contested possessions and goals) but on the whole more hitouts seem to correlate with an improved average for him.

 

[Bermi]

I’ve looked into this before and looked back over the last 10 seasons or so
The main reason the top 1/2 don’t back up is injury. One or both suffer a serious injury.
Once a ruck is in his prime years / fantasy sweet spot he mostly scores at that top end level. They just don’t stay on the park consistently year on year. It’s a tough position to play year on year out.
There are occasional spikes unpredictable one o***, but mostly the drop o*** are injury related.
So you have to predict which of Gawn or Grundy will cop the injury curse.

Well done Hondo, good info.

Grundy will be 25yo this year and Gawn 27yo. Grundy's last 4 seasons he played 19, 21, 20, 22 games and Gawn played 13, 22, 13, 22 games. So the odds are in Grundy's favour it appears. But Grundy is $16,100 dearer then Gawn, hmmm, not much more. The odds are still looking better for Grundy

I agree with you Pizza Safety, both are too expensive to pick at the start.

Quite possible Ricky Bobby, Gawn may get rested towards the end of year, but I'm not sure where, as in the last 4 games MEL play RIC, COL, SYD and NTH.

EDIT:
Rd19 MEL vs STK.

 

[Darkie]

Also worth wondering whether Westhoff is worth starting after all even if he drops off. If a ruck misses a week and he can sub in you will get an extra 60 from a rookie forward, which effectively bumps his average up by 2.7 per game (if he plays 22 games), if he comes in 4 times that effectively bumps his average up by more than 10. A 90 average becomes a 100 average if he subs in 4 times. This is not true if we can find a rookie ruckman who is likely to play, but I think that's unlikely.

On paper Westhoff is not a good pick because of his age and him peaking late even though I've done the research and shown on here that him getting hitouts was basically unrelated to his scoring last season. Probably worth picking him up asap if he's doing ok instead of starting him and ensuring you have r/f on your ruck bench. I originally dismissed him but I'm rethinking it now.

Edit: it might be a little inaccurate to say ruck work didn't contribute to Westhoff's average last year as the raw stats seems to indicate that it did https://afltables.com/afl/stats/players/J/Justin_Westhoff.html
However, game to game hitout numbers had little to nothing to do with his scores, meaning that when he had less hitouts he simply found other ways to score (more disposals, contested possessions and goals) but on the whole more hitouts seem to correlate with an improved average for him.

I found your previous post on Westhoff very interesting, thanks for sharing.

One more recent reservation I had is that he may have played a lot more ruck time, and get more clearances, touches, maybe tackles etc, but just not generate many hitouts, especially if he was up against a strong opponent.

I thought it might be best to check how he performed in the matches Ryder and Dixon missed (they were his main contenders for ruck time across the year, although Frampton and Howard got a lot of hitouts in select games). This was rounds 2-6 and 18 (Ryder) plus 22 and 23 (Dixon).

Comparing those games vs his 2018 overall averages:

- hitouts 10.9 vs 8.3
- SC 107.8 vs 101.2, see below
- disposals 21.1 vs 19.9
- marks 5 vs 5.3
- clearances 2.4 vs 2.6
- tackles 4.5 vs 4.9
- goals 1.3 vs 1.1

Other than SC average (and hitouts, not surprisingly!), the stats are very mixed.

The higher SC average was almost entirely due to his 147 against North (102.1 ex that, with a season average of 99 ex that game). In that game he only had 4 hitouts and 0 clearances - Dixon had 25 (easily his second best for the year) and 4, so I'm working on the basis that Westhoff didn't get a lot of ruck time in that game.

This collectively indicates to me that extra ruck time didn't help Westhoff's scoring to a meaningful extent.

I'm very interested if anyone has a contrary interpretation though, especially as I plan on picking him!

Also worth noting that if Gray is potentially in line for more mid time (Wingard and Polec gone from the mids, Lycett in and Ryder hopefully fit with both resting forward), there may be some incremental time available for Westhoff up the ground (but not necessarily in the ruck) as well.

2018 was his career best year for disposals, tackles and clearances as well as hitouts, so perhaps this mid time is important in its own right, and likely to be at least maintained?

 

[pizza safety]

I found your previous post on Westhoff very interesting, thanks for sharing.

One more recent reservation I had is that he may have played a lot more ruck time, and get more clearances, touches, maybe tackles etc, but just not generate many hitouts, especially if he was up against a strong opponent.

I thought it might be best to check how he performed in the matches Ryder and Dixon missed (they were his main contenders for ruck time across the year, although Frampton and Howard got a lot of hitouts in select games). This was rounds 2-6 and 18 (Ryder) plus 22 and 23 (Dixon).

Comparing those games vs his 2018 overall averages:

- hitouts 10.9 vs 8.3
- SC 107.8 vs 101.2, see below
- disposals 21.1 vs 19.9
- marks 5 vs 5.3
- clearances 2.4 vs 2.6
- tackles 4.5 vs 4.9
- goals 1.3 vs 1.1

Other than SC average (and hitouts, not surprisingly!), the stats are very mixed.

The higher SC average was almost entirely due to his 147 against North (102.1 ex that, with a season average of 99 ex that game). In that game he only had 4 hitouts and 0 clearances - Dixon had 25 (easily his second best for the year) and 4, so I'm working on the basis that Westhoff didn't get a lot of ruck time in that game.

This collectively indicates to me that extra ruck time didn't help Westhoff's scoring to a meaningful extent.

I'm very interested if anyone has a contrary interpretation though, especially as I plan on picking him!

Also worth noting that if Gray is potentially in line for more mid time (Wingard and Polec gone from the mids, Lycett in and Ryder hopefully fit with both resting forward), there may be some incremental time available for Westhoff up the ground (but not necessarily in the ruck) as well.

2018 was his career best year for disposals, tackles and clearances as well as hitouts, so perhaps this mid time is important in its own right, and likely to be at least maintained?

You would say that although hitouts helped on the whole when you look at all his stats but he found other ways to score when he did not get hitouts. According to AFL stats pro he had 43 hitouts to advantage for the year compared to 8 in 2017 so surely that would have helped, the thing being that he constantly found other ways to score well outside of hitouts to advantage and in games where he had 0-2 hitouts to advantage.

Definitely one to think about, I'd probably prefer to wait and see on him and try get to get him cheaper as my F6 and ruck swing. I think most of us were very lucky that Grundy, Martin and Gawn didn't miss a game last year. Best of luck if you start him, sure I could quickly regret it if one my guys gets suspended.

 

[blue dreamer]

I will be picking him as an (overpriced) keeper forward with the bonus of covering in the rucks.

This bonus is why I will pick him up at the overpriced point.

 

[Darkie]

You would say that although hitouts helped on the whole when you look at all his stats but he found other ways to score when he did not get hitouts. According to AFL stats pro he had 43 hitouts to advantage for the year compared to 8 in 2017 so surely that would have helped, the thing being that he constantly found other ways to score well outside of hitouts to advantage and in games where he had 0-2 hitouts to advantage.

Definitely one to think about, I'd probably prefer to wait and see on him and try get to get him cheaper as my F6 and ruck swing. I think most of us were very lucky that Grundy, Martin and Gawn didn't miss a game last year. Best of luck if you start him, sure I could quickly regret it if one my guys gets suspended.

Thanks mate. The idea of bringing someone like him in to complete an R-F set when needed has been floated a couple of times previously. I don't think it's a bad idea, albeit it is using a trade to do so - so it's really providing future cover, rather than cover for that week, if you like (you could just trade the injured/suspended ruck for one trade and have similar cover for that week).

If you place some value on the option to wait, that's a slightly different story. That might be the case for anyone who wants to see if their rucks miss, who thinks he is overpriced, or who wants to see how he scores this year (albeit he will likely be expensive if he's scoring well, and vice versa, so the latter two may largely o***et). The other thing I probably don't like about it is that you're quite constrained in the week your ruck misses - you largely need to do a forward upgrade that week, which may not be easily done. It's not wildly different to trading the missing ruck in my mind, except for the future cover provided.

I should mention that I quite like Westhoff on a standalone basis, as I do with Mummy, but in my mind they have synergy value. If I start Mummy, Westhoff will be up forward, otherwise he might be my R2.

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

Shane Mumford's pre-season has been interrupted by a hamstring strain suffered in the week leading up to the club's summer break.
Mumford sustained the low-grade strain in training days before Christmas, and is expected to return in late January, weeks after the rest of the playing group resume training on January 9.
Mumford was on a modified training module when he endured the injury given his age (32) and lack of conditioning due to his hiatus from the game in 2018.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...f=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_sport_afl

Goneskis...

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

Id like to know about Nankervis's HOTA/effective hit out numbers and whether or not they are increasing from year to year since becoming a sole ruckman. I think the argument about Nankervis lacking the ability to become a truly elite Supercoach ruckman without getting good HOTA numbers is a valid one. I wonder how his tap ruckwork stacks up against Stef Martin's for example, if Nank is slowly increasing the quality of his tap work I would be pretty interested.

If anyone has any relevant statistics/research id love to hear about it!