Strategy Round 5: Trades

[Herbie66]

I'm thinking the only way Westhoff will turn his poor scoring around is by not playing forward most of the game. And for him not to play forward a lot, there has to be a replacement to take his place. Dixon is injured for who knows how long and Marshall may not be AFL ready just yet?

Marshall will be back in , then with Lycett/Ryder + 4 (Ebert , Gray , Gray (?) , Rozee) Westy will get back to his usual "floating" position

 

[Connoisseur]

I’m far from an expert but I think it’s because he’s playing predominantly forward now. In previous years he spent a lot of time roaming or playing in the ruck but with Dixon out and Ryder/Lycettt fit, he’s been pretty much stuck in the forward line.

His disposals are down about 25% from last year and he’s yet to register a hitout after averaging over 8 last year. I don’t think there’s much to suggest this will change while everyone’s fit and Dixon’s not unfortunately and he’ll be pretty reliant on goals to score well, which does not seem to be the year for it if the way CD are scoring goals is anything to go by.

Interested to hear your thoughts @BigRuss

Spending more time than usual up forward due to the absence of Dixon and therefore is very dependant on hitting the scoreboard to translate to a good SC score rather than his usual role as a utility. Has kicked 5 goals this season all in RD1 with 3 consecutive games failing to score a major (1+ goal=149 from 1, 0 goal= 45 from 3 ). The typical poor kicking efficiency and decision making for fwd entries have also contributed to his poor start but as @quite ironic mentioned above hopefully Marshall is recalled possibly allowing the Hoff to move up the ground.

With his high breakeven and ruck dpp should be heavily on everybody's radar in the upcoming month as well as being one of the most durable players in the competition but for current owners it's dependent on your remaining salary/trades used and the emphasis placed on ruck cover.

Also seems like an opportune time to feature his namesakes finest moment.

 

[Pieman17]

Gawn to Mummy is probably a similar style of punt I did with Fyfe/Balta to Libba/Marshall. If you can use that spare change to get you an extra keeper to take a rookie off the field, could be worth it. It's mighty risky though as you are trading out a definite keeper in Gawn.

I'd keep Goldy, he has Essendon this week and the TBC/Clarke combo is one of the weaker ruck combos going around.

I also think Mummy's score was boosted by some late random marks during the heavy scaling period. From memory, his score shot up from 86 odd to 110 very quickly in the last 3-4 or so minutes. I'm not sure his game was worth 110. He could also tire from missing a year. The easy ruck draw could be a good excuse to give him a rest too.

I personally think the risks of Mummy outweigh the reward here, unless you can get a Rocky/Marshall type with the spare change and they turn out to be a genuine top bracket premiums.

There is slight similarities between the Fyfe to Libba and Gawn to Mummy trades but overall they are in completely different situations. Fyfe was concussed and was always going to miss 1-2 games (plus not sure about how he would respond when he came back) compared to Gawn who is fully fit and in decent form. The other thing that makes it different is the options available if Libba fails V if Mummy fails. This goes back to what you’ve said regarding to the risk in picking Mummy but if Mummy is rested or injured it will be near impossible to find another strong option without 250k plus in the bank.

Even though I’m trading Mummy in (via English), I only believe he is a good option only if you are doing a similar sideways trade.


Edit: also in response to QI’s original question

 

[quite ironic]

Gawn to Mummy is probably a similar style of punt I did with Fyfe/Balta to Libba/Marshall. If you can use that spare change to get you an extra keeper to take a rookie off the field, could be worth it. It's mighty risky though as you are trading out a definite keeper in Gawn.

I'd keep Goldy, he has Essendon this week and the TBC/Clarke combo is one of the weaker ruck combos going around.

I also think Mummy's score was boosted by some late random marks during the heavy scaling period. From memory, his score shot up from 86 odd to 110 very quickly in the last 3-4 or so minutes. I'm not sure his game was worth 110. He could also tire from missing a year. The easy ruck draw could be a good excuse to give him a rest too.

I personally think the risks of Mummy outweigh the reward here, unless you can get a Rocky/Marshall type with the spare change and they turn out to be a genuine top bracket premiums.

Very good point! I think the fact I already have 100k the much safer (I guess ) move would be

Butters to Stack
Setterfield to Marshall

That then means I only have Drew or Parker on the field at F6 which is better than 2 rookies for sure as I’m happy with my defensive rookies atm:

Collins, Scrimshaw, Duursma (Clark, Hore)

 

[Bermi]

Spending more time than usual up forward due to the absence of Dixon and therefore is very dependant on hitting the scoreboard to translate to a good SC score rather than his usual role as a utility. Has kicked 5 goals this season all in RD1 with 3 consecutive games failing to score a major (1+ goal=149 from 1, 0 goal= 45 from 3 ). The typical poor kicking efficiency and decision making for fwd entries have also contributed to his poor start but as @quite ironic mentioned above hopefully Marshall is recalled possibly allowing the Hoff to move up the ground.

With his high breakeven and ruck dpp should be heavily on everybody's radar in the upcoming month as well as being one of the most durable players in the competition but for current owners it's dependent on your remaining salary/trades used and the emphasis placed on ruck cover.

Also seems like an opportune time to feature his namesakes finest moment.

I Liked the music break
So basically, if Marshall is in the team this week, hang onto Westhoff, if he's not in the team, trade him out because he can't be relied upon to kick goals

 

[I am Cursed :(]

Butters -> Stack
Moore -> Marshall (st kilda)

Thoughts? mostly thoughts on Marshall being a keeper. Annoying he's $65k more than last week!! Moore not cutting the mustard

 

[Nathan]

Butters -> Stack
Moore -> Marshall

Thoughts? mostly thoughts on Marshall being a keeper. Annoying he's $65k more than last week!! Moore not cutting the mustard

Bit harsh on Moore.. his price will build on spike games.

 

[Bomber18]

Whitfield at 600k or Mundy at 480k?

One thing to note is that Mundy's huge score over the weekend was definitely due to Fyfe being out. Could revert back to being mediocre when Fyfe comes back in. In saying that... get Whitifield now while you still can as I don't see him dropping below 600k in the short term.

Yeah few risks with Mundy.
What about Whitfield 600k v Marshall 400k?

That's a tougher one. Probably lean towards Marshall in that one and save that 200k. Marshall looks too good to pass up on. Might have a down game against Gawn this week but should do well after.

I think Mundy isn't worth it - agree with Tamuhawk there.

Whitfield I think is probably slightly overpriced now. His good form could see him cop the no.1 tag pretty soon... maybe even over J.Kelly. Although he seems pretty much a must have this year and this is the last week to get him before he does become unattainable until a down game. GWS have a pretty cruisy draw too until the Crows in Adelaide right before their bye.

Marshall will be heavily debated by a lot of people this round. I was lucky enough to jump on last round for cheaper and am happy with the pick. He's not without risk either, has a huge task of Gawn/Preuss this round. I'll be happy with a 70 odd. There's quite a few miserable scores against the Dees this year so far including TBC/Stanley ~50, Sinclair 35 (with Preuss as well), Ryder/Lycett ~70. Hoping for 70.

If you can stomach a poorer score this round for possibly better returns later, this is the week to jump on given his low BE.

Having said all that, I’d take Whitfield right now if I had the cash.

 

[nath_99]

With Fyfe potentially missing another week, I don’t think I can hold him another week on the bench..

Fyfe > Lloyd
Goldy > Grundy

 

[Darkie]

I agree on Butters to Stack. Stack is also a rare 102k rookie so he essentially adds $15-20k which makes the early downgrade a bit more worthwhile.

Interesting call on Clark. I was wondering whether Parker to Hore might be the better trade via DPP. Parker has had two surprise 85s and seems to have stalled since. I saw him more as a 40-50 type rookie in the preseason so I wonder if he only has another 50k left in him. I’m scared to trade him though as trading Fritsch early really hurt last year.

I’m more likely just to hold off on that second trade and only get Stack at this stage.

I agree in that I'd rather cull Parker (or maybe now Setterfield) but DPP won't allow it unfortunately, with all my DPPs stuck forward.

I'll have a think about Hore and Clark. @Ben's Beasts's comments were encouraging without giving a heap of confidence in his JS, which is potentially just the situation he is in, albeit one that you may not want to cut a decent rookie for.

 

[Bomber18]

I agree in that I'd rather cull Parker (or maybe now Setterfield) but DPP won't allow it unfortunately, with all my DPPs stuck forward.

I'll have a think about Hore and Clark. @Ben's Beasts's comments were encouraging without giving a heap of confidence in his JS, which is potentially just the situation he is in, albeit one that you may not want to cut a decent rookie for.

Upon further thought, I think I’m gonna pass on Hore. There’s quite a few names competing in that Dees backline, might fall away after just one poorer game. Lewis I read is fit for this round. KK should be over a concussion. Jetta was a late out and will come back in. And also May to come back in 1-2 weeks.

Goodwin seems to have his favourites and the fact that he had to be a late in and wasn’t even an emergency the round before doesn’t bode well.

Decent enough for those who held on but not worth the trade in. I’ll look closely at Rotham if he’s named alongside Jetta and Duggan and there are no other injuries (ie: a Cole type is omitted). Otherwise, just Stack for me!

Although he only scored 20, McInerney at 117k def might still be worth keeping in mind for that McVeigh replacement role.

 

[pizza safety]

If Fyfe is out again this week I think I’ll be forced to trade him because you usually don’t hear about concussion causing a player to miss more than a week and I’d worry that this could drag on longer. It will be Fyfe to Zerrett or Bont, I prefer Bont but already have Libba and will need to get Macrae eventually.

 

[Buddy Starmart]

with the prospect only if parker and balta dont play this week i face a donut due to setters out .
so do i trade a ldu or butters for stack and balta or parker to marshall or even a tim kelly in im open to options .

 

[randomcliche]

Notsure it is still supported/working. Shame if so because it was a very handy app.

I use to use this as well, but I didn't get any alerts, tried deleting and reinstalling and I couldn't find the app again!!!

 

[randomcliche]

@randomcliche

Yeah I have it installed, but it appears as you say not supported anymore. It's not listed in the playstore as installed, or under updates
or Library even though I have it on my phone.

It was a bit clunky, but did the job and got the alert around the same time as twitter, sometimes beforehand. Oh well.

Thanks Professor

 

[Professor]

Hoff has played 128 consecutive games, so I don't believe he's injured. I've got last week's game recorded, might have a quick look to see where he's been playing.

@Bermi had a look at the replay last night, Hoff started forward, then got a touch on the wing, then was unsighted for the rest of the quarter. Was busier in the 2nd playing forward and wing, with a couple of 1, 2 plays via handball on the boundary line. 3rd quarter was similar and 2 touches in the last. It was one of those games with manic pressure from Richmond with Ryder and Lycett patrolling half forward and RGray being a target deep forward. Unfortunately it doesn't look as though he was the designated target going forward.

Re Butters, thought he had a few possessions on Ports back flank and struggled with that pressure from the Tiger forwards, believe he'll be better for the experience.

In conclusion for Hoff I'll hold this week, he has another $30k to drop, but would have bottommed out, no point in trading, hoping there's better ball movement going forward this week, he wasn't given much ball if any to be honest when playing forward. Especially with Lycett having pot shots outside 50 without looking at targets inside the arc. Just selfish from Lycett, did it twice in the first half.

 

[randomcliche]

AFL facebook messenger bot is the best I think. Find AFL on FB, click message and type “Get started”. There should be prompts for late changes and team selections

I've signed up for that, thanks very much. I missed getting the 'E' on Hore this week and that was worrying given I also had B.Mckay out. Didn't end up costing me a trade but did have to wait 24 hours to confirm Scrimshaw wasn't out. I don't need that stress in my life.

(Why do I trust Brad Scott???? I've also got B.Smith sitting there as well)

 

[randomcliche]

With Fyfe potentially missing another week, I don’t think I can hold him another week on the bench..

Fyfe > Lloyd
Goldy > Grundy

You've already has last week's out, nothing can change that. Move on. Consider what this is, Fyfe out for 1 week. Run a rookie. It's not worth the trade. You be kicking yourself come round 15. @pizza safety Have a look a Jordan Lewis when he copped a massive KO a few years back. He played the 3 consecutive weeks and was putrid. He later acknowledged he wasn't right. Concussion has different impacts each time. If it takes an extra week so be it. Will be better for the rest.

 

[IDIG]

with the prospect only if parker and balta dont play this week i face a donut due to setters out .
so do i trade a ldu or butters for stack and balta or parker to marshall or even a tim kelly in im open to options .

Without seeing the rest of you team, that sounds like a good idea and something I’m considering myself. If you have Moore in your backline and no Hore, that would be another option.

 

[Bermi]

@Bermi had a look at the replay last night, Hoff started forward, then got a touch on the wing, then was unsighted for the rest of the quarter. Was busier in the 2nd playing forward and wing, with a couple of 1, 2 plays via handball on the boundary line. 3rd quarter was similar and 2 touches in the last. It was one of those games with manic pressure from Richmond with Ryder and Lycett patrolling half forward and RGray being a target deep forward. Unfortunately it doesn't look as though he was the designated target going forward.

Re Butters, thought he had a few possessions on Ports back flank and struggled with that pressure from the Tiger forwards, believe he'll be better for the experience.

In conclusion for Hoff I'll hold this week, he has another $30k to drop, but would have bottommed out, no point in trading, hoping there's better ball movement going forward this week, he wasn't given much ball if any to be honest when playing forward. Especially with Lycett having pot shots outside 50 without looking at targets inside the arc. Just selfish from Lycett, did it twice in the first half.

Wow, thanks Professor, far beyond the call of duty
If Westhoff is not getting the ball much up forward and he's not getting the ball much on the wing, then where do you think his SC scoring is going to come from? Maybe you answered that already by saying the team's ball movement may improve, it can't get much worse for Westhoff, ay.
My main concern is that Westhoff's scoring is costing me wins in my League Games.
I take your point that he has dropped $113K already and may drop $30K more this round (actually I am expecting more since PTA plays WCE), but will bottom out. Bottoming out is a good point to consider, because financially he won't be hurting any more and his scoring may go up right .
Looks to me that PTA needs to drop Lycett to do SC teams with Westoff a favour .