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[Ironhawk]

Pinging @Professor for the kick in article just published in the HS!

The men who take the most kick-ins at every AFL club, and their SuperCoach scoring
Ben Broad, Herald Sun
May 2, 2019 4:22pm
Subscriber only
It was the new rule that forced the stats men to alter their definition of a kick-in.
But has the changed position of the man on the mark following a behind altered SuperCoach scoring?
In 2019, under the new AFL rule, the designated kick-in player isn’t required to kick the ball to himself before leaving the square after a behind. Instead, he can simply play on if he chooses, using the greater space to run further and drive the ball deep out of defence.

SCROLL DOWN TO SEE EACH CLUB’S KICK-IN KINGS
Champion Data reacted to the rule change by altering its definition of a kick-in.
GRUESOME: GEARY’S HORROR LEG INJURY
SUPERCOACH: ROUND 7 FORM GUIDE
“As per previous seasons, there will be no disposal given when a player kicks in while clearly still in the square. Once the player steps completely out of the square before kicking in, then this will count as a disposal, similar to past seasons after a kick-in to self. All handballs will be counted as disposals regardless of where the player is standing,” Champion Data revealed before the season.
Many thought SuperCoach scores could significantly increase for players who decide to take advantage of the extra space.

West Coast skipper Shannon Hurn is having a career-best year. Pic: Michael Klein.
But in general, the percentage of points scored from kick-ins has seen little increase, with the majority of increased scores coming from rises in disposals and intercept possessions.
Some players have assumed the mantle as the no.1 man at their club when it comes to bringing the ball back into play, while others have simply taken advantage of the extra space to play on more frequently.
Who most gets the footy after a behind makes for interesting reading — and careful consideration when choosing SuperCoach possibles.
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Darcy Moore takesa the kick-outs more than any other Pie. Pic: AFL Photos
* Stats courtesy of Champion Data.
KICK-IN KINGS
Player Kick-ins in 2019 Play-ons Play-on % 2019 SuperCoach ave 2018 SC ave Brodie Smith (Adel)28165793.887.5Rory Laird (Adel)1396999.7108.2Daniel Rich (Bris)261246102.778.9Alex Witherden (Bris)24218885.383.8Dale Thomas (Carl)25187280.785.1Nic Newman (Carl)21167686.572.6Darcy Moore (Coll)24166778.349Jeremy Howe (Coll)1813728491.6Conor McKenna (Ess)35257173.374.4Michael Hurley (Ess)101010083.290.6Luke Ryan (Frem)422457102.290.2Nathan Wilson (Frem)27228165.880.2Tom Stewart (Geel)413483103.885.3Mitch Duncan (Geel)14750101106.2Pearce Hanley (GC)271867101106.2Jarrod Harbrow (GC)1421482.581.9Heath Shaw (GWS)3212387690.7Zac Williams (GWS)20105091.7n/aBlake Hardwick (Haw)29124178.874.3James Sicily (Haw)191684106.5105.1Christian Salem (Melb)28269393.582Bayley Fritsch (Melb)833871.575.2Scott Thompson (NM)2619737877.2Jamie Macmillan (NM)23135785.381.1Jayden Short (Rich)118735585.8Shane Edwards (Rich)1132779.286.7Shane Savage (StK)17116589.588.7Jimmy Webster (StK)1353867.287Jake Lloyd (Syd)332885118.7112Jarrad McVeigh (Syd)21188690.789.7Shannon Hurn (WC)523975114.296.4Lewis Jetta (WC)2084072.861.8Caleb Daniel (WB)312477102.577.1Matt Suckling (WB)1613819991.5* PA stats not available at time of publishing

 

[Crabby Skills]

Player Kick-ins in 2019 Play-ons Play-on % 2019 SuperCoach ave 2018 SC ave Brodie Smith (Adel)28165793.887.5Rory Laird (Adel)1396999.7108.2Daniel Rich (Bris)261246102.778.9Alex Witherden (Bris)24218885.383.8Dale Thomas (Carl)25187280.785.1Nic Newman (Carl)21167686.572.6Darcy Moore (Coll)24166778.349Jeremy Howe (Coll)1813728491.6Conor McKenna (Ess)35257173.374.4Michael Hurley (Ess)101010083.290.6Luke Ryan (Frem)422457102.290.2Nathan Wilson (Frem)27228165.880.2Tom Stewart (Geel)413483103.885.3Mitch Duncan (Geel)14750101106.2Pearce Hanley (GC)271867101106.2Jarrod Harbrow (GC)1421482.581.9Heath Shaw (GWS)3212387690.7Zac Williams (GWS)20105091.7n/aBlake Hardwick (Haw)29124178.874.3James Sicily (Haw)191684106.5105.1Christian Salem (Melb)28269393.582Bayley Fritsch (Melb)833871.575.2Scott Thompson (NM)2619737877.2Jamie Macmillan (NM)23135785.381.1Jayden Short (Rich)118735585.8Shane Edwards (Rich)1132779.286.7Shane Savage (StK)17116589.588.7Jimmy Webster (StK)1353867.287Jake Lloyd (Syd)332885118.7112Jarrad McVeigh (Syd)21188690.789.7Shannon Hurn (WC)523975114.296.4Lewis Jetta (WC)2084072.861.8Caleb Daniel (WB)312477102.577.1Matt Suckling (WB)1613819991.5* PA stats not available at time of publishing

 

[Ironhawk]

Yeah, the table doesn't copy well. Sorry.

You might be able to view it by going through the link on the superfooty Twitter page (May need an incognito tab) - that's how I got to it.

 

[Professor]

Pinging @Professor for the kick in article just published in the HS!

Sorry was on the road, believe @Ironhawk has published. can't get the stats to be aligned.

 

[Erich1036]

 

[Ironhawk]

View attachment 8603
View attachment 8604

Thanks for that, had to go out and didn't have a chance to get the screen shots of the table.

 

[Bomber18]

Huge thanks @Crabby Skills @Professor @Erich1036

Looks like a great resource!

 

[Professor]

SuperCoach late mail: How to cope without Jack Scrimshaw and Charlie Constable

Dan Batten, Herald Sun

May 2, 2019 9:29pm

Subscriber only

Hawthorn and Geelong are on the SuperCoach hit list after leaving prime cash cows Jack Scrimshaw and Charlie Constable were left out of their Round 7 teams.

Hawks defender Jack Scrimshaw ($314,500, DEF) — owned by more than 80,000 SuperCoaches has been managed by coach Alastair Clarkson after a strong start at his new club.

TRADE GRADES: BEST AND WORST OF ROUND 7

SUPERCOACH PODS: TIME TO GET JEZZA CAMERON?

Geelong has dumped young gun midfielder Charlie Constable for its clash with the Bombers. Picture: Peter Ristevski

And Cats youngster Charlie Constable ($303,000, MID) — the seventh-most owned player in SuperCoach in almost 103,000 teams — has been dumped.

The second-year Cat can consider himself stiff after finishing with 21 disposals, a goal and 79 SuperCoach points in their 58-point win over the Eagles.

SuperCoaches have some big decisions to make before this weekend, with Scrimshaw (in 42 per cent of teams) and Constable (52 per cent) both boasting high ownerships.

What should we do with the pair?

Here are some options:

Fremantle star Nat Fyfe could be the perfect replacement for an absent Constable. Picture: Getty ImagesCHARLIE CONSTABLE ($303,000, MID)

BE: 37

Average: 81.4

UPGRADE

This will be a popular option for many SuperCoaches who have cash in the bank. The No.1 SuperCoach prospect in this category is Nat Fyfe ($564,000), who has eclipsed 110 points in four of his five games — the other he was concussed in the third quarter.

A swing from Power dual-position rookies Willem Drew (FWD/MID) or Xavier Duursma (DEF/MID) will allow you to go from Constable to a defender or forward.

HOLD

The kid is averaging 81.4 points per game and has a break even of just 37 — he still has cash to make. As previously mentioned, the ball-winning midfielder hasn’t done a lot wrong, and could easily be recalled after a dominant display in the VFL.

Another 90 point effort could see Constable reach $400,000 around the byes. If you have already burnt through your trades, it may be wise to hold firm.

DOWNGRADE

Bulldog mature-ager Will Hayes ($117,300, MID) is the most notable bubble boy this week and a downgrade from Constable will net you more than $180k. This could help facilitate an upgrade for another rookie — even Jack Scrimshaw.

Young Dog Will Hayes represents an on-the-bubble downgrade option. Picture: Getty ImagesJACK SCRIMSHAW ($314,500, DEF)

BE: 58

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Average: 70.3

UPGRADE

The upgrade options in defence are headlined by Crows ball-magnet Rory Laird ($531,200, DEF). This may be the cheapest price we can nab Laird before his price shoots up, and you’d suspect many SuperCoaches will go with this plan of attack. Scrimshaw’s break even is approaching his average, so his price could stagnate when he returns.

HOLD

Considering Cats rookie Jordan Clark was managed and returned the next week, should we really be culling one of the better cash cows in defence? The former-Sun was on his way to a SuperCoach ton after eclipsing 50 points in the first half on Sunday, before slowing to finish on 62. The scoring potential is certainly there, notching 98 points against the Saints in Round 4.

DOWNGRADE

This is probably the most dangerous option with no rookie defenders on the bubble. Some may opt to trade in youngster Noah Answerth (DEF/MID, $117,300) — who scored 69 points last weekend — after just one game, and this is a massive risk. With the emerging Zac Bailey set to return to Brisbane’s defence in the coming weeks, Answerth could be the one to make way before his price rise.

 

[Crabby Skills]

Huge thanks @Crabby Skills @Professor @Erich1036

Looks like a great resource!

I literally did nothing of use...

Nevertheless, praise accepted

 

[Professor]

Mid-season draft: Five ex-AFL players among more than 200 to nominate in hope of another chance

Jon Ralph, Herald Sun

May 3, 2019 7:18pm

Subscriber only

Five ex-AFL players head the list of more than 200 mid-season draft hopefuls, but Jarrad Waite and Brendon Goddard are not among them.

The league will distribute the list of names to its 18 clubs as they ponder taking another selection as part of the May 27 mid-season draft.

VFL stars including Coburg’s Sam Lowson and Williamstown’s Jaylon Thorpe are among the kids who could be selected by clubs looking to stockpile talent that will mature in coming years.

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Five ex-AFL players have nominated for this year's mid-season draft.

But for clubs looking for ex-AFL talent which can immediately slot into a club, Alex Woodward (Collingwood VFL), Ben Kennedy (Williamstown), Mitch Hibberd (Williamstown) and Michael Barlow (Werribee) would have some appeal.

Ex-Sydney defender Alex Johnson has also nominated as he makes his way back from his most recent knee surgery but he would need to have played several games for a club to even consider his services.

He has not played since rupturing his ACL in Round 1 last year but has signed up for the Northern Blues.

Salary cap guru Ken Wood has pushed a hard line on eligibility, making clear if players are not eligible for the mid-season draft they will not be selected.

In some extraordinary circumstances if a player had a compelling reason why they were not eligible the league might consider their case.

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But even if players like Waite and Goddard had suitors the league would rule they are ineligible.

Waite is starring playing VAFA football after being nudged into retirement last year.

Clubs are privately pessimistic about the level of talent available to make an instant impact but more than 12 teams are expected to make a selection.

 

[Darkie]

View attachment 8603
View attachment 8604

Great stats, thanks everyone for posting.

Looks like this has had a reasonably clear impact.

Top play-on players (20+ YTD) and their SC score changes year on year:

Hurn +18
Stewart +19
Lloyd +7
Salem +12
Daniel +25
McKenna -1
Ryan +12
Wilson -14
Witherden +2

Average: +9
Median: +12

Of the top 10 SC defenders YTD, all bar Houli and Whitfield feature in the above table.

Houli has only played three games (reducing his opportunity to lead his team for kick-ins on an absolutely basis) and Whitfield has played further up the ground.

 

[Rumbler]

Can some please post the Constable article currently in the latest news of the HS?

 

[Professor]

SuperCoach rage trades: Has time come to punt Tom Rockliff, Angus Brayshaw and Isaac Heeney?

Paul Dunn, Herald Sun

an hour ago

Subscriber only

It was our first traditional weekend of footy for the season, but that doesn’t mean that all the players did the right thing by us!

We are right in the midst of the peak upgrade and downgrade period, so week-to-week form should have a big impact on your trades so and you need all your players performing.

Coaches with Tom Rockliff face a tough call after he struggled against Collingwood. Picture: AAP Image/David Mariuz.

Boot Him

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Taylor Adams

Adams hurt his adductor during the win over Port and it looked to be a bad one. If he is going to miss more than a week you need to trade him from your side.

Tom Rockliff

With a 90 a 100 and now a 56 in the last three weeks the Rocky Train has officially stalled at the station. Rocky also had the equal third lowest time on ground of all Power players which is a concern for owners. He won’t have an easy day of it against the Crows this week either.

Angus Brayshaw

Brayshaw hasn’t been over 100 now for four weeks. He was picked in our teams as a premium who had a great back end to 2018. Unfortunately he hasn’t replicated that form and his 68 this week will cause some coaches to lose their matchup. We can’t have him keep delivering these scores each week.

It has been four weeks since Angus Brayshaw scored 100 SuperCoach points. Picture: Michael Dodge/Getty Images.

James Worpel

Not only was this Worpel’s lowest score of the season it was also less than his Break Even which means he will have dropped in value. He has been a great stepping stone for coaches that started with him but he seems to have reached his peak. Time to use some cash and upgrade him to an uber premium.

Isaac Heeney

Second lowest score for Heeney this week but importantly he hasn’t been over 100 now for three weeks and his BE is very high meaning he will drop in value such that if he hits some form the rest of the competition will jump on board then.

Tom Liberatore

Libba hasn’t cracked the 100 for three weeks now with this week being his worst score and he looked to have a role change. His price has had a big drop this week and this will continue unless he can get back to that early season form. If this role change is permanent then it is time to offload him to a premium.

Devon Smith

After a 35 the previous week he delivered us a 60 this week. He is nowhere near the great form he showed us last season and based on that he is now a must trade out of your side before he leaks more value! Don’t hold on in hope as he has only been over 100 once this season.

Scott Pendlebury has been best on ground in Collingwood’s past two games. Picture: AAP Image/James Ross.

Buy Him

Scott Pendlebury

This now marks three weeks in a row over 100 for Pendles as he has regained the form that saw him become so reliable in past seasons. Last week was his cheapest but if you want to get on board this would be the ideal week to do so as he faces Carlton.

Zac Williams

With scores of 91, 121 and now 140 he is paying off for the 30% of teams that have him but if you don’t have him he could be a great addition to your side. He will keep rising in price next week again so if you do want him it could be the time to trade him in.

Josh P Kennedy

JPK has long been a good Supercoach player and has now put in three scores over 110 in a row. His price provides a great deal of value given the level of scoring he is providing. Not only that he was a tackling and clearance machine this week which is exactly what boosts a Supercoach score.

Is one game above 100 enough for us to trust Josh Dunkley’s form? Pic: Michael Klein.

Josh Dunkley

After a couple of solid weeks in the 90s Dunkley finally cracked the 100 and he did it in a big way. He had the role that got him all the points towards the end of last season and looked like the player that many thought they would get when they selected him at the start of the season.

Andrew Gaff

This was the breakout game for him this season. After a couple of slow weeks he has shown exactly what we knew and that is he can flat out score. 35 touches and 10 marks. His BE will have dropped a lot so this could be the cheapest you get him for a number of weeks now. If you are after him this would be the week to jump aboard.

Patrick Cripps

There are currently 40% of teams that don’t have Cripps in them. He bounced back from his only score under 100 last week to have 123. His BE was 195 and his price has dropped. He will only be this cheap for another week at most. You need to get him in.

Mitch Duncan

Duncan is in less than 1% of teams and yet he has only been under 100 twice so far this season with this week’s 126 being his best score. He is worth less than his staring price and only increasing from here he could be well worth a look as a unique selection in your side.

Luke Ryan

Ryan hasn’t put a foot wrong in the last few weeks. He was the top scorer in this game and had an impressive 34 possessions. This comes off the back of 156, 93, 100 and 95 in the previous four weeks. He is in 3% of teams and a very unique player for your side at a very cheap price.

PLAYERS TO WATCH FOR ANOTHER WEEK

These guys aren’t buys or boots just yet but they are ones that we should just keep a close eye on.

Hugh McCluggage

This was his best game of the season and he has been very good with just the one poor week so far. He won’t be in your best 8 mids at the end of the season but he will be rising in value for a few weeks with this score and could be a handy stepping stone.

TOP SCORERS OF THE ROUND

A look at the top 5 scorers for the week. How many did you have in your side?

1.154 — George Hewett, Andrew Gaff

2.146 — Marcus Bontempelli

3.142 — Luke Ryan

4.140 — Zac Williams

5.139 — Trent Dumont

CAPTAINS SCORECARD

Here we grade the players that would have been in consideration for your captain role this week. So this isn’t necessarily the highest scorers of the round but those who are in contention for the top job.

A++: Andrew Gaff 154

A+: Marcus Bontempelli 146, Max Gawn 127, Scott Pendlebury 126, Patrick Cripps 123, Nat Fyfe 124

A: Lachie Neale 108, Brodie Grundy 108, Jack Macrae 107, Adam Treloar 103

B:Matt Crouch 97

F: Tom Rockliff 58,

Patrick Dangerfield 26*

* - Injury Affected

He’s had two big games, but does Jackson Hately hold his spot with so many gun Giants returning? Picture: AAP Image/Daniel Pockett.

ROOKIE WATCH

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Zac Butters BE 27 Score 30.

Time now to move Butters on.

Sam Collins BE 70 Score 47.

Dropping in value. A must trade.

Jordan Clark BE 43 Score 41. This would be the time to move him out as he may get squeezed out of the side again.

Rookies On The Bubble

Jackson Hately Scores of 95 and 85.

A good trade in target if he holds his spot.

Darragh Joyce Scores of 67 and 60.

His first game was in round 1 so job security is questionable.

Noah Answerth Scores of 69 and 72.

He looks to have done enough and will be a worthy trade in.

Josh Corbett Scores of 55 and 59.

The only concern is that he is playing for an inconsistent Gold Coast.

Nick Larkey Scores of 75 and 40. Whilst his second wasn’t as good he can be considered a reasonable downgrade for you up forward.

Start Him

Reilly O’Brien 121, Tarryn Thomas 107, Sydney Stack 103, Darcy Moore 96, Gryan Miers 92, Sam Walsh 89, Marty Hore 88, Tom Atkins 87, Bailey Smith 86, Jay Lockhart 86, Liam Baker 85, Jackson Hately 85, Dylan Moore 74, Noah Answerth 72, Matthew Parker 71, Jack Ross 69, Xavier Duursma 68, Willem Drew 67, Connor Rozee 65, Callum Wilkie 63, Darragh Joyce 60, Josh Corbett 59, Jordan Ridley 58, Noah Balta 59, Shai Bolton 58, Michael Gibbons 55, Jack Petruccelle 54, Lachie Young 50

Sit Him

Will Hayes 49, Jordan Clark 41, Declan Keilty 40, Zak Butters 30, Liam Stocker 21

 

[Professor]

AFL Super Ladder: Every team’s form rated after Round 7

Jon Anderson, Herald Sun

17 minutes ago

Subscriber only

Have the top three made a break on the pack?

Geelong, Collingwood and GWS looked a class above on the weekend, with the Cats now a game clear on top.

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Meanwhile, Brisbane returned to the top four, Adelaide made its move and Richmond showed the strain of playing with so many of its best players out injured.

Scroll down for the full ladder and Ando’s take on every club’s form.

1. GEELONG 24 148.4%

Their forward pressure and shutting down of Essendon’s defensive run was near perfect. Atkins and Miers are as comfortable up the ground as forward. And they are part of a very even side, not one of three or four superstars.

2. COLLINGWOOD 20 126.9%

Remember the days of three tall defenders? Long gone as mediums and smalls who can both mark overhead and run fast dominate, and no club can boast more of this type than the Pies.

3. GWS GIANTS 20 124.4%

If they can finally get a clear injury run at it, and Whitfield, Davis and Deledio should all be available, then this could be the year of the charcoal, orange and white. Cameron at $21 for the Coleman pre-season would now appear considerable overs.

Jeremy Cameron on the way to another big haul against St Kilda.4. BRISBANE LIONS 20 107%

Right now McCluggage is the pick of their Boy Band, and guess what, his team is 5-2 with a very manageable draw. Going to that traditional battleground of Mars Stadium in Ballarat next Saturday for the Dogs is a serious character test.

5. FREMANTLE 16 121.2%

At 20 points apiece with five minutes to go in the third, Ross Lyon would have though he’d woken in heaven. Then the men in green got involved and missed a free kick against Betts that had the viewing audience questioning their eyesight, and knowledge of the rules.

6. ADELAIDE 16 116.5%

Imagine the football wars that must have erupted in the old days when a loose ball appeared in the Ballarat home of the Crouch family? As for the game, it should be erased from the annals of AFL history so nobody from overseas can ever witness it.

7. PORT ADELAIDE 16 106.5%

Weren’t anywhere near clean enough when it mattered early. And that could cost them in finals. Love their kids but are they all ready for the real heat? Judge Port when they have Dixon, Hartlett, Jonas and Robbie Gray fit.

8. ST KILDA 16 96.2%

Don’t reckon they can make the eight but there is something to like long-term from a group who could largely dine in Chapel St with relative anonymity. Marshall’s duel with Mumford was a classic.

9. RICHMOND 16 94.2%

You can only cover three club champions for so long. Plus one in Martin who right now is a good player rather than the great 2017 model, and the all-important Astbury. They are now back on the edge, but that’s testament to the evenness of 2019.

Dustin Martin is finding the going tougher without injured skipper Trent Cotchin.10. WEST COAST 16 93.7%

Didn’t some bloke once say that “a win is a win is a win”? And that’s about all you could say for an Eagles outfit that is travelling more like Daniel Ricciardo’s Renault than the Mercedes of Valtteri Bottas. At least Darling got some form.

11. ESSENDON 12 100.7

The worry was not their effort, but their inability to find scoring options once their run was taken away, and Daniher was blanketed. They won’t play finals unless they can refresh their game plan.

12. WESTERN BULLDOGS 12 100.2%

Just when we thought it was safe to write them off for September, they go and perform a big mischief on the Tigers. So exciting to see names such as Naughton, English, Crozier and Dunkley in the best.

13. HAWTHORN 12 100.2%

Part of O’Meara’s journey is blowing up the tag (Harmes) and further highlights Mitchell’s absence. Wingard won’t have lost his skill but needs to put an APB out for his confidence. GWS next week is daunting.

Chad Wingard is playing without confidence. Picture: Michael Klein.

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14. GOLD COAST 12 76.5%

As uncertainty hangs over his future, Martin produced a game that will further enthuse suitors. For a side that has lost so many (Ablett, Dixon, Prestia, O’Meara, Lynch, May etc) it’s vital they retain Martin for more than just on-field reasons.

15. NORTH MELBOURNE 8 81.5%

Selected their best team of the year, and Garner, who hasn’t played since 2017, was an integral part of a fluent machine. He’s a hard nut with a natural footy brain. Think his team is ready to claim some scalps.

16. MELBOURNE 8 73.3%

Up to eight out of their best 22, so a win of some significance. Lockhart from North Lonnie has some tricks, but they still have a number of good players (Brayshaw, T.McDonald and Petracca) short of their best.

17. CARLTON 4 85.3%

It may seem disrespectful given they won only one of their first six games, but this young group has been highly competitive in that period, and a let-down was coming. The key is to ensure they don’t lose their way for an extended period.

18. SYDNEY 4 80%

The harsh realisation is their effort around the contest, apart from Hewett, was below the traditional Sydney brand. And in cricket parlance, their tail is very long. Too many taking 0-60 off their 10 overs.

 

[Professor]

Likely No 1 draft pick Matt Rowell hailed ‘better than Sam Walsh’ could end up at Sydney

Jon Ralph, Herald Sun

May 7, 2019 4:28pm

Subscriber only

It would be a classic Sydney drafting manoeuvre - missing finals for the first time in a decade and snaring a No.1 overall draft pick reminiscent of club legend Paul Kelly.

Sydney’s slump to the bottom of the ladder after seven rounds has them in contention for a player who would instantly rebuild their midfield - Oakleigh Chargers star Matt Rowell.

Rowell’s Chargers coach Leigh Clarke described midfielder Rowell in one word: “complete”.

A man who has seen Jordan de Goey, Shaun Higgins and Darcy Moore come through at Oakleigh said he was consistently blown away by Rowell’s consistency and will to win.

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Sydney was able to steal Isaac Heeney for pick 18 in the 2014 national draft before securing Callum Mills and Nick Blakey as exceptional academy talent.

Rivals would be filthy if Sydney’s one trip down to the bottom of the ladder allowed them to secure a kid with such an extraordinary junior resume.

Matt Rowell of the NAB AFL Academy

“With his attributes and traits he is as complete as I have seen,” Clarke told the Herald sun.

“He just never gets beaten. As a coach you would never doubt him.

“The biggest comparison I make of him comes from having grown up watching Paul Kelly from the Swans. Speaking to Swans recruiters and other players who played against him, Kel would just say, “Come on mate, you are having a bad day I will do it for you”.

“He has been best-on-ground in every game at the highest level. He was best on in the Grand Final last year, then an Australian (academy) game on AFL Grand Final day, then best-on in an Australian game again (against Casey) last month.”

Rowell had 31 possessions in the TAC Cup final and has this year averaged 159 ranking points in the NAB league as well as 28 possessions, 10 tackles and seven clearances.

Leigh Montagna says Rowell and his best mate Noah Anderson, rated the draft’s No. 2 pick, are seen by AFL recruiters as superior talents to Sam Walsh

Clarke says the boys are inseparable, Rowell the stoppage beast and Anderson the explosive midfielder whose three games for Calder have seen him amass 202, 215 and 137 ranking points.

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Matt Rowell of the NAB AFL Academy in action

Anderson has kicked eight goals and averaged 32 disposals in his three Calder games this year.

“They are the closest friends I have ever seen,” Clarke said.

“I have got older twin brothers and they have a real twin-type relationship. Anderson kicked 30 and had four goals and then 38 and kicked 2.2 so if you want someone to kick goals to win a game you might pick him but you could build a premiership off the back of someone like Rowell.”

Sydney could surge up the ladder when Lance Franklin returns but in a year where they won’t play finals securing Rowell would set up their next generation midfield.

 

[Professor]

Doctor’s Orders: Are Jack Darling, Sam Menegola and Justin Westhoff bargains or traps?

Doctor SuperCoach, Herald Sun

May 7, 2019 4:00pm

Subscriber only

SuperCoach is a complicated game. There are traps and bargains out there and unless you have a crystal ball, picking the out-of-form players just prior to a return to form can be just as easy as winning the $50,000.

The experts at Doctor Superoach are here to try to weed out the contenders from the pretenders.

Below are three out-of-form forwards who are threatening a return to premium scoring levels, but which one do we trust?

SAM MENEGOLA $419,400

Avg: 81.9. Break even: 60. Saving on starting price: $123,700

There are very few guarantees in this unpredictable game, but it seems Menegola averaging 99-100 is one of them. In the three seasons that Menegola has played, his career average hasn’t deviated by more than one point from an average of 100, which brings us to this season.

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Sam may be playing a slightly different role due to Tim Kelly’s ever increasing midfield minutes, but having been moved to a wing shouldn’t slash his average by 20 points. While Menegola has dropped his disposals per game from 24 to 20 and his tackles are down from four to two, it has been his ability to hit the scoreboard that could be the underrated cause of this slow start. After averaging a goal per game in his first three seasons, Menegola has hit the scoreboard on only three occasions in his opening seven games this year.

Despite scoring his third ton of the year last round, we still require an uptick in Sam’s three main statistics this season, hopefully resulting in some increased production. At this stage of the season, with Geelong missing Joel Selwood, Patrick Dangerfield not playing at 100 per cent and Gary Ablett offered a one week ban, it is incredibly hard to judge Menegola’s season to date, making him a very risky trade in option.

JUSTIN WESTHOFF $402,300

Avg: 78. Break even: 36. Saving on starting price: $147,200

After a “breakout season” at the ripe old age of 31 in 2018, Westhoff has not started this season in a similar fashion at all. Last year was the only year Westhoff was able to average over 100 in his 12-year career, however, despite this, “The Hoff” is currently looked at as a fallen premium option.

The fact that he has missed just three games in eight years can only help his case, coupled with the fact that he can cover an injured ruckman with his forward/ruck dual-position status. Westhoff boasts an average of just 78 points per game so far this season including scores of 39, 47 and 49, but he has also posted 149, 92 and 108, with the latter two coming in the last fortnight. So is The Hoff back?

Justin Westhoff posted his second-highest score of the year against Collingwood.

The return of Todd Marshall to Port Adelaide’s forward line has seemingly given Westhoff a bit more freedom to find the ball across the ground. However, similar to the other forwards in this article, Westhoff scores well when he kicks goals.

It’s difficult to tell whether losing the ruck duties to recruit Scott Lycett is the main reason for his scoring drop, or whether it was his lack of goals in those poor games, however with a career-high average of just 101 points, this seems a risky pick no matter how you spin it.

A swap from Reilly O’Brien to provide ruck and forward cover later in the season is probably the best way to utilise The Hoff this year.

JACK DARLING $322,600

Avg: 66.9 | Break even: 35 | Saving on starting price: $149,100

Darling is a confidence player and, until last season, wasn’t particularly a SuperCoach relevant player either. However, from Round 1 through to Round 10 Darling was averaging 111 points, before finishing the season averaging 62 from Round 10 onwards.

Before Darling’s most recent score of 132, he was averaging 56 points in 2019. The “why” is obvious, as Darling kicked almost half of his season tally for goals, and the same amount as the last four rounds combined, just against Gold Coast.

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Jack Darling returned to form in style against Gold Coast.

West Coast hasn’t been in stellar form in the past three weeks, but the most enticing reason to consider picking Darling comes with their upcoming fixtures: St Kilda, Melbourne, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs and Sydney leading in to the Eagles’ bye.

Darling’s confidence will be up and should put up some good scores, but where does trading Jack Darling into your SuperCoach sides leave you? A trade down, unlikely to make $150,000 and without a long-term keeper in your forward line. Pass unless desperate.

 

[Professor]

The secret stat that has become important to winning the premiership

Sam Edmund, Herald Sun

May 7, 2019 7:56pm

Subscriber only

It’s a bit like the death of the dinosaurs. No one knows exactly how it came to pass.

But a little-known stat has emerged as one of the key ingredients in AFL premierships.

Footy’s archaeologists have traced it back to about six years ago. At that point clubs began to recognise its importance.

The stat is post-stoppage contested ball.

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The footy world has long fawned over clearance numbers and contested possessions on a broader level, but it’s the fight to win the ball after it leaves a stoppage that is now football gold.

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Garry Lyon this week described it as “footy porn” on On The Couch, and the best teams in the caper have believed for a while now that it contributes to sexy football.

You won’t find it on any game stat sheets — and low-profile Sydney midfielder George Hewitt is the most prolific at it — but eight of the past 10 premiers have ranked inside the top four when it comes to post-stoppage contested possessions.

Its importance is underlined by the fact that the top three on the ladder — Geelong, Collingwood and Greater Western Sydney — are also the top three in post-stoppage contested possession differential.

Geelong leads the way in post stoppage contested possession. Picture: Michael Klein

Carlton, West Coast and Sydney are ranked in the bottom three, while Melbourne’s woes are reflected in its ranking of 14th.

Contested possessions won at ball-ups and boundary throw-ins are done so in more congestion than ever, making it difficult for even the quickest minds to make good decisions.

Post-stoppage is seen as the quality contested ball to win given it comes with fewer bodies in the vicinity and more space as the prize.

Richmond’s pressure in 2017 was so fierce that rivals who won the ball at the source either coughed it up down the line or could generate only “dirty ball” forward entries.

And when the Tigers won it back they had more time and space to take advantage because they did so post-stoppage.

Post stoppage contested possession differential ladder

Geelong +15.4 (ave)

Collingwood +10.1

GWS +7.7

Fremantle +6.3

Port Adelaide +3.7

Hawthorn +1.4

Adelaide +0.4

Brisbane Lions -0.1

Richmond -0.1

Gold Coast -0.9

St Kilda -1.1

North Melbourne -1.9

Western Bulldogs -2.1

Melbourne -3.0

Essendon -4.3

Carlton -5.7

West Coast -12.0

Sydney -13.9

Top 10 post-stoppage contested possessions

1. George Hewitt (Syd) 7.6 (ave)

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2. Travis Boak (Port) 7

3. Nat Fyfe (Freo) 6.7

4. Lachie Neale (Bris) 6.6

5. Clayton Oliver (Melb) 6.6

6. Ben Cunnington (NM) 6.4

7. Jack Macrae (Dogs) 6.4

8. Rory Sloane (Adel) 6.4

9. Patrick Cripps (Carl) 6.3

10. Dustin Martin (Rich) 6.2

Source: CHAMPION DATA

 

[Professor]

SuperCoach Investor: How do we cope if Geelong star Patrick Dangerfield misses North Melbourne game with injury?

Dan Begala, Herald Sun

8 minutes ago

Subscriber only

Our war chests are building and the trades are flowing, but as always, there’s a curve ball looming which could present forward line carnage this week.

His name is Patrick Dangerfield — the most popular player in the game — and the stock market will be keeping a close eye on his availability at the Round 8 selection table.

The conservatives among us will “hold”, but if you’re hellbent on rankings, there exists a lucrative opportunity to differentiate yourself from the herd.

This conundrum — plus much, much more — is the subject of The SuperCoach Investor’s portfolio theory for the week.

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Patrick Dangerfield is under an injury cloud after hurting his knee on Sunday against Essendon. Picture: Tim Carrafa.

DANGER SIGNS

We’re well aware of Patrick Dangerfield’s unheralded recuperative powers, but the injury sustained to his knee against the Bombers looked a doozy.

To his credit, Dangerfield played out the game but looked a shadow of his former self with frequent trips to the doldrums of the ‘G for medical treatment.

The result?

26 SuperCoach points and growing concern that he may miss on Sunday.

Dangerfield is a staple for the vast majority of sides — 72 per cent — but now we’re posed with ultimate conundrum.

Hold or fold?

Most conservative pundits, if not all, will hold Dangerfield with respite to be provided in the form of Jack Petruccelle and Matthew Parker.

If you’re chasing rankings, however, this is your moment.

It’s time to “short” Patrick Dangerfield (if he is not named…).

Dangerfield’s breakeven is 198 and the initial forecasts suggest his share price could plummet as low as $448K following the Cats’ Round 13 bye.

Buy low, sell high — that’s the aim of the game, right?

It’s a risky trade strategy, but if you’re behind the rankings Eight ball, it’s time to act contrarian and deviate from the forces of the market.

Most teams — including yours truly — are staring down the barrel for the Round 13 bye with our stars (and rookies) from Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood, Brisbane, West Coast and Melbourne all scheduled to miss.

You can be forgiven if you’ve had your head in the sand over the last month, but it’s time to start tailoring every trade decision — whether it’s up or down — for the benefit of your side during the byes.

Travis Boak could be the perfect replacement if Patrick Dangerfield is injured. Pictured: AAP Image/Kelly Barnes.

Travis Boak ($580K, Average: 119.7 SC) — who has been somewhat unobtainable — looms as the perfect candidate to replace Dangerfield and would ensure an immediate points uplift versus the likes of Petruccelle and Parker.

He’ll help maintain the scoring momentum of your portfolio, protect you during the Round 13 bye and provides immediate reinforcement in the absence of Danger.

There’s also a handy bunch of PODs (Caleb Daniel, David Mundy and Jeremy Cameron) who may also rise to the occasion as captain of our forward lines.

If you’re one of the 13 per cent of sides that boast the services of rookie revelation, Reilly O’Brien, he could be the perfect source of capital to replace the returning Dangerfield in Round 14 when the Crows face their bye.

O’Brien, if he retains his spot, will be priced at $468K before his byes.

It’s pie-in-sky type stuff and fraught with “Danger”, but if you’re entrenched at the pointy end of the rankings, pull the trigger!

Coaches are dealing with a temptation to turn players such as Darcy Moore into top premiums. Picture: David Crosling.

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The Dangerfield dilemma, although catastrophic, may not even eventuate.

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In the meantime, it’s essential that we continue to harvest the sizeable capital gains we’ve made on the penny stocks (“rookies”) we’ve been watering since Round 1.

Investors will continually be enticed to prematurely trade the likes of Darcy Moore ($370K), Sam Walsh ($453K) or Willem Drew ($322K) for an underpriced star.

It’s not madness, but there are plenty of other priorities we should address before we move any of the abovementioned names from our sides.

Moore, as an example, is playing All-Australian type football while Willem Drew is expected to reap the benefits of enhanced midfield opportunity in the absence of Ollie Wines and Brad Ebert.

Compile a list of rookies. Check their break evens. Study their form guide.

It’s time to rank them.

Your priority — if you’re chasing sustained and long-term success — should be to “short” the least appetising rookies left within your side.

Petruccelle (BE 59), Jordan Clark (BE 55), Sam Collins (BE 63) and Michael Gibbons (BE 50) should be firmly in your trade sights.

They’ve proven unreliable, reached their breakeven thresholds and no longer occupy positions in your starting 22, anyway.

If you’re patient and can hold these proven rookies longer, you will be forever indebted by an enhanced team valuation and greater scoring certainty should any of your premiums unexpectedly miss.

Patience (and SuperCoach) is a virtue.

 

[Professor]

Al Paton and Tim Michell rate the 10 most popular trades of Round 8 as coaches target Noah Answerth and Jackson Hately

Al Paton and Tim Michell, Herald Sun

an hour ago

Subscriber only

SuperCoaches only want to know about two players this week — Noah Answerth and Jackson Hately.

The plan to double downgrade to Brisbane Lions Def-Mid Answerth and GWS midfielder Hately makes sense, opening the door to target two fallen premiums in Round 9 and boost your team in readiness for the byes.

The only issue could be team selection, with Hately potentially squeezed out at the Giants by the return of Josh Kelly and Lachie Whitfield.

But, if he holds his spot, he’s projected to make $80,000 this week. You won’t want to miss out.

Noah Answerth has made a promising start to his career with Brisbane. Picture: AAP Image/Richard Waugh.AL PATON AND TIM MICHELL RATE THE MOST POPULAR TRADES OF ROUND 8

Michael Gibbons to Noah Answerth (3682 trades)*

Al: The Brisbane defender is the most popular trade this week, already brought into more than 31,000 teams. After scoring 69 and 72 in his first two games, he’s set to jump in value by more than $60,000. If he’s named by the Lions I’ll be grabbing him.

Tim: You could get away with holding Gibbons for one more week, that is presuming Brendon Bolton doesn’t swing the axe after Carlton’s 58-point loss to North Melbourne. I favour the idea of nabbing Answerth as a midfielder for team flexibility, especially if you have Xavier Duursma or Jay Lockhart in defence. If Gibbons is the man to go, so be it.

Tom Liberatore to Noah Answerth (3438 trades)

Al: Suspect the real trade here is a defender to Answerth then Libba out for a premium midfielder. It’s a tough call on the Bulldogs gun, who has posted a 150 this year, but after 98, 71 and 58 in his past three games and with Josh Dunkley stealing some of his midfield time, swapping for a genuine premo like Nat Fyfe could be the way to go. Don’t do it unless you’re bringing in a rolled-gold superstar.

Tim: I’m sticking fat with Libba, but this really depends on how you are placed with trades. I’ve already used eight and need Libba to return to his form of the opening rounds as I burned one of them to get him. If you have 24+ trades left and get a premium as a result, make the move.

Zak Butters to Noah Answerth (3258 trades)

Al: Butters has hit the wall hard and it’s time to cash him in. You can trade Answerth in as a midfielder or a defender and walk away with $136,000.

Jackson Hately is averaging 90 points per game but his job security is a concern. Picture: AAP Image/Daniel Pockett.

Tim: Butters should hold his spot as a result of Ollie Wines’ injury, but that’s no guarantee on his form of the past few weeks. He’s played like he needs a rest and has hit his maximum price with a breakeven of 72. Unless you need him for a loophole if he’s dropped, this is the week to cash in.

Jack Petruccelle to Noah Answerth (2851 trades)

Al: Petruccelle’s 100 against Port Adelaide has slipped out of his three-game price cycle and his break even is now higher than his average, so goodbye Jack.

Tim: You’d be facilitating this trade by swinging a player such as Tim Kelly from midfield to your forward line. The forwards are where the greatest issues have been this year and with his 100 against Port Adelaide out of his cycle it’s hard to see Petruccelle making more profit. Either upgrade him or look at a trade like this. You certainly want him gone before his Round 13 bye.

Michael Gibbons to Jackson Hateley (2309 trades)

Al: Like Petruccelle, we’ve got about all the benefit we’ll get from Gibbons’ surprise SuperCoach 100 in Round 5. Hateley is one of the best rookie prospects this season — assuming he can stay in the GWS team.

Tim: The double downgrade to Hately and Answerth will be popular this week, with good reason. The only concern about Hately is his job security, considering his debut was praised and he still missed out the next week. He’ll score well when he plays but how often that is will be the worry when you’re limiting your downgrade profit by paying $148,800.

Jordan Clark to Jackson Hateley (2175 trades)

Al: It happens around this time every year — first-year players who started with so much promise start to find the going tougher and score 40s instead of 70s. Clark is no exception and if you can facilitate a trade to cash him in and bring in Hateley, go for it.

Tim: Clark’s break even (55) is just lower than his average of 56.3 and he’s behind Butters and Petruccelle on the list of players to downgrade. If you’ve already moved one or both of that pair on, then trading Clark via either a Xavier Duursma or Jay Lockhart swing to defence would be a smart play.

Zak Butters to Jackson Hateley (1921 trades)

Al: This one is pretty straightforward. Butters has maxed out in price, Hateley is on the bubble. A classic SuperCoach move.

Tim: You’re only looking at a $104,500 profit via this trade, but take it and run. Butters has reached his maximum price and Hately is projected to rise by more than $80,000 if he scores 90. The young Giant has an ideal Round 14 bye and looks capable of filling an on-field spot at M7 or M8.

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Tom Liberatore to Jackson Hateley (1744 trades)

Al: The priority should be to get rid of rookies before dealing with a player who could score 100 this week, but the SuperCoach community has apparently lost patience with the mid-price madness strategy. I wouldn’t be trading Libba to a rookie but if he gets you to Marcus Bontempelli or Lachie Neale it’s a different story.

Tim: Not sold on this one. My gut says those who jump of Liberatore now might get burned. He still spent 59% of the game in midfield against Richmond.

Willem Drew to Noah Answerth (1715 trades)

Al: Drew hasn’t quite reached the ‘must trade’ level of some other rookies but he isn’t too far behind. Safe to hold for another week or two but if you can turn him into a forward line superstar like Travis Boak or … are there any others this year? … it could pay off.

Tim: Don’t trade Willem Drew! News of Ollie Wines’ ankle injury will increase the young on-baller’s midfield minutes and there’s a good chance he could reach $400,000 by the Power’s Round 12 bye. In the opening two rounds before Wines returned only Tom Rockliff (36) attended more centre bounces for Port Adelaide than Drew (29) There’s better ways to get to Answerth, despite the urgency to add him before his price rise.

Sam Collins to Jackson Hateley (1425 trades)

Al: Collins lost $11,100 last week and is set to tumble again if he can’t make his 63 break even. A double trade involving Answorth and Hateley would build a big bank for next week’s trades.

Tim: hesitate in trading with Collins if you can use a player with Def-Mid eligibility to turn him into Hately. Collins has done his job by generating profit in the first seven rounds but cash in now and bring in a more reliable scorer in Hately.

* No. of trades as of 4pm Wednesday.

 

[Professor]

Moneyball trade column: Is Patton the Roughy replacement? Would GWS dare let him go?

Jon Ralph and Jay Clark, Herald Sun

18 minutes ago

Subscriber only

AFL TRADE NEWS:

Could Jon Patton to Hawthorn be the answer for the forward line issues of two AFL clubs?

A thinned-down Patton is making excellent progress in his return from a third torn ACL after his latest injury last July.

He is in exceptional shape and is keen to play several kilograms lighter as Melbourne clubs including Hawthorn ponder trade bids.

Patton has consistently been linked to clubs including the Hawks despite a lucrative contract expiring in 2020 that makes him one of the club’s highest-paid players.

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The GWS forward line is humming along without Patton, who was in and out of form before his latest knee injury.

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Jeremy Cameron is flying, Harry Himmelberg and Jeremy Finlayson are playing key roles alongside Toby Greene in the most efficient forward line in footy.

Meanwhile at Hawthorn the club is desperate to find a new key forward for the next generation with Jarryd Roughead likely in his final year despite eight goals in six years.

Patton moving on would clear a heap of cap space for the Giants given their commitments and allow the Hawks yet another injury prospect.

But would GWS dare to trade him before they secure the signature of Jeremy Cameron, a free agent at the end of 2020?

All of it makes his progress in the back half of his season critical as the Giants try to make progress on a Cameron deal

Patton is still some time away after his third ACL but having dropped weight and travelled to the US for specialist coaching is in exceptional shape as he awaits a return.

Jon Patton during GWS Giants AFL training at Spotless Stadium, Pic Brett Costello

GOOD NEWS FOR DOGS

IF a week is a long time in football a month is an eternity.

Not too long ago the Dogs were pondering their key position stocks as $2 million of horse flesh went around in the VFL in the form of dumped Jackson Trengove and Josh Schache and the returning Tom Boyd.

Now the Dogs not only have a contested marking phenom in Aaron Naughton, they might have their ruckman for the next decade too.

Tim English is an intriguing player - at 21 still rating “poor” with Champion Data for hitouts, hitouts to advantage and clearances and only average for possessions.

But as shown by his exceptional display against the Tigers - 103 ranking points, 26 hitouts, eight score involvements - the top-20 pick could be anything.

Naughton is tucked away until the end of 2024 and while English is signed only until the end of next year, surely the long-term offer will come soon.

Officially there is nothing doing on that front but it won’t be long in an era when clubs love to watch rivals draft rucks then pinch them as they approaching their peak.

The Dogs have put an offer in to Josh Dunkley and can’t be too far away from closing a deal on Caleb Daniel given his exceptional form.

Boyd is on the comeback trail after three goals in his latest VFL game, Jackson Trengove is back with a vengeance after stifling Tom Lynch last week and Schache will have to force his way back into the side.

Aaron Naughton of the Bulldogs

LIKE FATHER LIKE SON

HAWTHORN might have lost out on the rights on Noah Anderson when it traded his dad Dean to get some forward line support because of an ageing Dermott Brereton.

But the kid they do have rights to - Scott Maginness’ son Finn - has started the season on fire.

The Sandringham Dragons midfielder has had two cracking games in three NAB League contests, his latest against powerful Oakleigh a 134-ranking point, 24-possession, 17 contested-possession, one goal effort.

Port Adelaide not only has the third-most cap space of any club entering 2020 it has two live father-son options.

Darren Mead’s son Jackson is playing excellent football in the SANFL reserves, while Peter Burgoyne’s son Trent is a live prospect and has siblings Jase and Rome following on in coming years.

The Power squirrelled away a handful of late picks this year to ensure they had the points to secure one or both players - currently holding picks 14, 32, 56, 59, 64 and 68.

They have the luxury of having a crack at a free agent or uncontracted player or again backing themselves at the draft after success last year.

Finn Maginness in action during the NAB League

END OF THE LINE FOR HODGE

LUKE Hodge will likely retire at year’s end feeling his time at the Lions was a total success.

Hodge was lured out of retirement and would have felt playing only a single season might have taken some of the glint off his status as a one-club player.

But seven weeks into his second season he has played all seven games and while his past two haven’t been his best, his form is holding up well enough.

He is almost certain to retire at year’s end, saying in the pre-season he wanted to be pushed out of the side in a sign the kids were overtaking him.

He played 19 serviceable games last year and this week hits 332 AFL games in total and so far is playing well enough to avoid the scrutiny his good mate Jordan Lewis has been hit with at Melbourne.

Luke Hodge is set for retirement 2.0

ST KILDA FEELING GOOD

ST KILDA’S brilliant start to the season has secured Jade Gresham and will ultimately convince Jack Billings that Moorabbin is the place to be if they can show him the money.

It means the club doesn’t have too many priority signs left this year.

Jack Newnes is a restricted free agent and the club and his management have agreed to put off talks until later in the year, with Newnes having played every game in the last five seasons.

Jake Carlisle and Jarryn Geary have game-based triggers in their contracts, so might have to do some negotiating to tidy up new contracts after serious injuries.

Luke Dunstan and David Armitage are bashing the door down in the VFL but unable to play consistent AFL football, while Rowan Marshall is in talks on a new deal after excellent early-season form.