Analysis Rnd 10: Anatomy - Some Updates

[Rowsus]

Hurn
Last time we looked at Hurn, his anatomy table looked like this:



Since then he has scored 107 and 161, making his table look like this*: (before official price changes published)



Hurn has filled both of his expected top score brackets, meaning we need to make an adjustment. He has none of his bottom three expected bracket scores, so we will shift the 161 back there making his table look like this:



The adjusted table has Hurn scoring at near 97 from here, and overpriced by 17.3/game. Generally I draw a line at overpriced by 15/game. Anything over that is considered a step too far. If you traded Hurn in now, you need him to score in the 102+ area, to get your money's worth. Keep in mind, he has never, ever had a 100+ season, so if you trade him now, not only have you missed all the scores that got him to his personal record 116 average, but you want/need him to score at a level from here, that he has never previously achieved. It's a close call, so I say when you aren't sure, you should pass ....... for now!

 

[Rowsus]

Neale
Neale seems to be playing "smart" SC football this season. When under pressure, he handballs, and handballs well, when he's clear he kicks, and usually does that pretty well, too!
Last time we looked at Neale, his table looked like this:


Adding in his 5 most recent scores brings his table to this:



Neale has overfilled his 3rd top scoring bracket, so we need to further adjust his table, and his expectations.
When we move that 148, his new table now looks like this:



Neale's new table has him scoring at 108 from here, and being overpriced by 16/game. Like Hurn, this is just over the 15/game limit. You'd want to be confident that Neale will continue at 110+ from here, until the finish of the season, to trade him in this week.

 

[Rowsus]

Lloyd
Lloyd just seems to keep on going, unchecked. It reminds me of what one AFL Coach once said about Buckley. Buckley was picking up 35 to 40 possessions a game, and the opposition Coach said "While he's getting them across the half back line, he's really not hurting us too much". I can only guess that's what the current lot of Coaches are thinking with Lloyd!
After 9 Rounds, Lloyd's table looks like this:



I don't see a need to adjust Lloyd's table for now. He's currently overpriced by 3/game, on what we might expect him to produce from here. That makes him a strong buy in prospect this week!

 

[Rowsus]

Whitfield
Really smashed a poor Carlton outfit, with Coniglio out. He won't get both of those things too often!
We looked at Whitfield after Round 4, and his table looked like this:



He's missed two games, and played three since then, and now his table looks like this:



Some might make an adjustment this week, as he's filled both his top 2 brackets. I'd prefer to wait, and if he scores a 125+ in the next 2-3 weeks, or a 136+ in the next 7-8 weeks, we'll make an adjustment then. For now, he is overpriced by 11/game, which makes him a buy option, but probably not as good a buy as Lloyd, for those missing both.

 

[Rowsus]

Grundy
He has to stumble soon ......... doesn't he?
At the start of the season, I felt that Grundy would have to come down from last years lofty heights. I had him pegged somewhere in the 118 area. Here is how his table looks:



Grundy has 7 scores above 130, which is full season allotment of 130+ scores. That means we should make an adjustment. As always, your idea of when to adjust, where and how to adjust, may bedifferent to mine. His new table looks like this:



Grundy's expectation has risen to 120 for the season, and he's expected to score at 115 from here. Surprisingly enough, it keeps him just within the buy area. Do keep in mind though, that while it's ok to buy one or two top Prems at or around 15/game over their expected return, you really can't afford more than that, unless you have genuinely nailed ALL the top Rookies! Otherwise, you will end up compromised elsewhere, or hoping for that flukey value pick. Still an argument can be made, that one of the top 3 or 4 players + a compromised pick, might end up better than say two players ranked 15 to 20 on the top scorers list.

 

[Bomber18]

Hurn
Last time we looked at Hurn, his anatomy table looked like this:

View attachment 8978

Since then he has scored 107 and 161, making his table look like this*: (before official price changes published)

View attachment 8979

Hurn has filled both of his expected top score brackets, meaning we need to make an adjustment. He has none of his bottom three expected bracket scores, so we will shift the 161 back there making his table look like this:

View attachment 9013

The adjusted table has Hurn scoring at near 97 from here, and overpriced by 17.3/game. Generally I draw a line at overpriced by 15/game. Anything over that is considered a step too far. If you traded Hurn in now, you need him to score in the 102+ area, to get your money's worth. Keep in mind, he has never, ever had a 100+ season, so if you trade him now, not only have you missed all the scores that got him to his personal record 116 average, but you want/need him to score at a level from here, that he has never previously achieved. It's a close call, so I say when you aren't sure, you should pass ....... for now!

Excellent post again! It’s good having this sort of analysis as reassurance but the reality for me is that it will be completely impossible for me to bring in Hurn this year. There’s no way I can afford another 550k-600k defender on top of Lloyd (luckily started Whitfield).

Congrats that picked him as a POD but it will be the Blakely or Sicily types which I’ll be targeting at cheaper prices.

 

[Rowsus]

If time permits, and interest piques, I will try and do any players you might want to see. Keep in mind, this type of analysis is better suited to players that have either risen or maintained their opening price, or dropped in price considerably. Any player that has dropped something like 5%-15% from their price probably won't benefit from this sort of analysis.

 

[PC]

Great posts Rowsus!!

 

[chels]

As expected, terrific statistical analysis Rowsus - thank you.

I am having a pretty good (by my standards) SC year and find that this analysis coupled with the top 5K analysis very helpful. I am a conservative and plan now to trade to more widely held players to stay with the pack.

I would appreciate an updated analysis of Macrae who I think may now be a must have. I already have Bontempelli and wonder if their scores are independent or correlated (perhaps negatively)?

Thanks again for all the great reads.

 

[Cattleherder]

Hi Rowsus
Thanks for sharing the analysis. Would Dusty and J Kelly pique your interest? Two trades I am looking at. I had Dusty at the start of the year but traded him out.

 

[Pieman17]

Thanks Rowsus

Would love to see Dusty and Lynch(Rich) if possible.

Cheers

 

[NT.Thunder]

Question - what's the EXP (expected) average based on?

 

[NT.Thunder]

It's interesting, but is it not potentially misleading for those players like Hurn that really look to have taken their game to a new level maximised with a change in CD scoring.

Hurn in 2018 went 100+ 10 times over 22 games with a high of 138 and only 2 scores over 120.

In 2019 to date, 9 games in he's gone 100+ 7 times with a high of 161 and 3 games over 120 with another at 119.

We've got 3 players (Hurn, Whitfield & Lloyd) all going 115+ to date in defence

In 2018 we had only 1 player in defence go over 110 (Lloyd 112) with 4 more in that 105 - 110 range being Yeo, Laird, Simpson and Sicily.

I'm just wondering whether the expectation should be higher noting we have seen an increase to defenders SC scoring that are prolific with kicking out.

I'm not sure and just throwing it out there because I don't see it as unreasonable that Hurn could push 110 or more without taking into account injury or more attention.

Hurn does also play Melbourne again in round 18 so there's another 160 boost to his average unless they significantly change their inside 50 entries.

 

[Rowsus]

..........
I would appreciate an updated analysis of Macrae who I think may now be a must have. I already have Bontempelli and wonder if their scores are independent or correlated (perhaps negatively)?

Macrae:
opening price $689,700. Current price $584,600. Drop 15.2%. Generally means there won't be much adjusting to do. Let's see:



He looks a good buy right now, and I don't think there is anything to adjust there.
Looking at Macrae v Bont:



I don't think there is any correlation to draw. It can be one up, one down, both up or both down.

 

[Rowsus]

Josh Kelly



Not much to say, see or do here. If you trust him to stay on the park, he's a decent buy. He's probably a bit of a risk given his high price, and recent history of missing games.

 

[Rowsus]

Dustin Martin
Dusty might have turned a corner, or he might just be trolling us. I had Dusty pegged at 105 at the start of the season. Let's look at his table:



Dusty has filled both of two expected lowest scores. Let's shift one of them, and adjust our expectation accordingly.



We've recalculated Dusty down to a 103 season average. That leaves him to score at 107 from here, and to be underpriced by 8.7/game. I don't think he's one for those at the pointy end, but if you have over used your trades, and want to get a value priced POD to help you complete your team, he's probably an option. He's currently in 9.4% of teams, but I'm guessing a decent lot of those might be inactive teams.

 

[Rowsus]

Tom Lynch (Rich)
Have we overestimated Lynch, or is he still struggling with lasting effects from his knee? It's a really tough question. Let's look at his table:



He's overfilled his lowest score bracket, and totally filled his 2nd lowest score bracket. He's underpriced by 49/game in this table, but we're going to make some adjustments, and I'm going to be savage. You may want to be more or less savage in your own adjustments.
His adjusted table looks like this:



We've adjusted his season expectation down to 81, but I suspect he might be adjusted down again in a about 3 weeks. The adjustment still makes him underpriced by 37/game, so even if he doesn't live up to these new numbers, he's still likely to outscore his price from here. Richmond averaged 14 goals/game last season, and are currently averaging 12/game this season. A few high scoring games might help Lynch a little. Lynch's average with, and without JRoo is pretty identical to what he's averaging now, so no inference can be drawn there.
Like Dusty, he's not for those at the pointy end, or if you are in a big Cash League, but if you think you need a value POD, to make funds available for other upgrades, he's an option ......... but not for me.

 

[Rowsus]

Question - what's the EXP (expected) average based on?

The opening expectations are just my own pre-season expectations. As I explained in the first Anatomy thread last season, the tables I present here are based on my opinion, and the adjustment I make are open to be done differently by each individual. I encourage people that think this method might be of use, to substitute their own pre-season expectation in, and make their own adjustments, as they see fit.
The general idea behind the anatomy tables, is to stop people making wild adjustments on players. We have seen players on a hot streak "assumed" to now be 110 players, when they were generally considered to be 90 players prior to the season. The reverse applies too. This type of wild swings in expectations tend to lead to regrettable decisions. I was using them as a tool to show people how they might more readily and reasonably adjust their expectations.

 

[Rowsus]

It's interesting, but is it not potentially misleading for those players like Hurn that really look to have taken their game to a new level maximised with a change in CD scoring.

Hurn in 2018 went 100+ 10 times over 22 games with a high of 138 and only 2 scores over 120.

In 2019 to date, 9 games in he's gone 100+ 7 times with a high of 161 and 3 games over 120 with another at 119.

We've got 3 players (Hurn, Whitfield & Lloyd) all going 115+ to date in defence

In 2018 we had only 1 player in defence go over 110 (Lloyd 112) with 4 more in that 105 - 110 range being Yeo, Laird, Simpson and Sicily.

I'm just wondering whether the expectation should be higher noting we have seen an increase to defenders SC scoring that are prolific with kicking out.

I'm not sure and just throwing it out there because I don't see it as unreasonable that Hurn could push 110 or more without taking into account injury or more attention.

Hurn does also play Melbourne again in round 18 so there's another 160 boost to his average unless they significantly change their inside 50 entries.

Your observation is well put, though I would suggest couple of things.
I don't believe CD have actually changed their scoring, There certainly has been a change in circumstances and set up though, and Hurn seems to be, in SC terms, the greatest beneficiary of these changes.
Injury and more attention are things that need to be kept in the back of your mind. Hurn has only missed 1 game in the past 4.09 seasons, but is getting older, so is open to management or injury, as in general older players miss around 2 games/season more than younger players (based on reasearch I did 6 years ago). Also, when players dominate like Hurn has, opposition coaches will eventually react, so we can expect in at least some of the coming games, he might receive extra attention.

I fully expected Hurn would benefit from the new Rules, but until we saw them fully in action, it was hard to guess at exactly what numerical affect they'd have on some scores. I don't think anyone expected him to be a 110 player coming into the season, and I must admit, i'm not 100% convinced that he gets there this season. I do concede that he might.
Certainly with this type of analysis, and the changes that have been made, Hurn bucks the trend a bit. I'm very against wholesale changes to expectations, Far too often people have been lead into poor decisions, by assuming what has happened in the opening 5, 7 or 9 games, is what will continue to happen for the remainder of the season. More often than not, when it is clearly outside reasonable expectations, a correction will come. Having said that, we are facing a unique set of circumstances with Hurn this season, as we have never previously seen such dramatic rule changes in the SC era.

Let's say, you might want to trust your eye, and say "I got it wrong with Hurn, I should have had him at 110 at the start of the season". If we made a table with him being a 110 (he was averaging 111 prior to Round 9) it would look like this:



A table looking like that would need no adjustment, and have him scoring at 105 from here. You would think that would still make him a top 3 Def for the Rnd 10 to Rnd 23 period.

I must admit, I'm an old sceptic, and even with new rules etc, I'm expecting something to spoil the Hurn party. That might be an injury, or a drop off in scoring, or something. It's just too hard from history point of view, to see him continue in this vane. I've been wrong before though, so ........

 

[chels]

Thank you for your time and input Rowsus. It's a pleasure to read such well thought out analyses.