Questions for Rowsus
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I've had a good look at your team, Keith.
Your backline back up is thin, and Ibbo is not great right now.
Having said that, I think you'd be crazy to use your trade right now.
The potential rewards of trying to fix a low score in back line are far outweighed by what you might need that trade for next week, or the week after.
Keep your powder dry until round 22 I'd suggest, unless a problem arises between now and then.
I can't even see a half good trade I'd be happy to recommend, that is better than holding the trade.
Give your eyes a rest, and concentrate on some loophole advantages for the next few weeks.
Good luck
Your backline back up is thin, and Ibbo is not great right now.
Having said that, I think you'd be crazy to use your trade right now.
The potential rewards of trying to fix a low score in back line are far outweighed by what you might need that trade for next week, or the week after.
Keep your powder dry until round 22 I'd suggest, unless a problem arises between now and then.
I can't even see a half good trade I'd be happy to recommend, that is better than holding the trade.
Give your eyes a rest, and concentrate on some loophole advantages for the next few weeks.
Good luck
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I've had a good look at your team, Keith.
Your backline back up is thin, and Ibbo is not great right now.
Having said that, I think you'd be crazy to use your trade right now.
The potential rewards of trying to fix a low score in back line are far outweighed by what you might need that trade for next week, or the week after.
Keep your powder dry until round 22 I'd suggest, unless a problem arises between now and then.
I can't even see a half good trade I'd be happy to recommend, that is better than holding the trade.
Give your eyes a rest, and concentrate on some loophole advantages for the next few weeks.
Good luck
Your backline back up is thin, and Ibbo is not great right now.
Having said that, I think you'd be crazy to use your trade right now.
The potential rewards of trying to fix a low score in back line are far outweighed by what you might need that trade for next week, or the week after.
Keep your powder dry until round 22 I'd suggest, unless a problem arises between now and then.
I can't even see a half good trade I'd be happy to recommend, that is better than holding the trade.
Give your eyes a rest, and concentrate on some loophole advantages for the next few weeks.
Good luck
Cheers buddy, after seeing Hanley's injury time reduced to 1-2 weeks I've decided to hold him. Looking forward to your analysis
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Hi Rowsus,
Hopefully a pretty pain-free question for you.
Watson's break even is about 177 pts on SC Gold and a price currently of $528900.
In the event he scores 80, 100 or 120 points this week, how much will his price fall to and what would his subsequent break-evens be?
I am trying to judge whether to trade in someone this week (say NicNat to Rioli), raise some cash and whether it will be accessible to use a trade on T Mitchell to Watson hopefully in 1st week of the finals.
Many thanks
Hopefully a pretty pain-free question for you.
Watson's break even is about 177 pts on SC Gold and a price currently of $528900.
In the event he scores 80, 100 or 120 points this week, how much will his price fall to and what would his subsequent break-evens be?
I am trying to judge whether to trade in someone this week (say NicNat to Rioli), raise some cash and whether it will be accessible to use a trade on T Mitchell to Watson hopefully in 1st week of the finals.
Many thanks
Well, I lost everything I wrote here, but got the tables below back, so that's good!
I finally have an answer for you, Jakob. Sorry about all the delays.
You have probably looked at the table at Who SC Gold Thinks Will Win $50,000. The idea behind that table was to see who was most likely to finish in front of you, as the teams stand now. Now we have established who your biggest competition is, I thought we'd look at how your team matches up against the ten teams projected to finish in front of you. I also included your match up against BigRuss' TheRustyFishHooks for your SA rivalry, and Dunny's Destroyers, as he tweeted he has 3 trades left, and was surprised I left him out of the table!
I know these tables aren't necessary to the advice, I just thought you might be interested to see a comparison of your team to your nearest competitors.
Basically the thing to trading late in the season (any time really!), is to choose to trade players that will give you the greatest potential increase in points, or to raise cash to do that.
At one point you were considering Hanley out to try and improve your D6. I know you have discounted that as an option now, as Hanley is hopefully back soon. I'd just like to make a short point, that that was never an option, unless you have 5 or more trades left. The problem is that the best Defs score at around 102-105 this season. If you are upgrading a 70-80 point player, and already have all the best Defs, you're not looking at a very big upgrade. Maybe 10-15 points/week, if you are lucky. You want more than that.
Your weakest links, according to the SC Gold analysis, are Cox and JJK. They are the players you need to target for improvement. Now by targeting them, I am not necessarily talking of trading them out, but just removing them from your starting 22.
You also made a point of saying in your question that you were considering Trading Nicholls to Goldstein. To do this requires $134,600. As you didn't suggest a second cash raising trade, I am going to assume you have that much cash to spend. I also don't know if you have 2, 3 or more trades left (don't tell me how many you have!), so I am just going to deal with this one trade and the cash assumption in front of us.
SC Gold actually have the highest scoring Ruck and Forwards for the rest of the season, that you don't have, as:
Kreuzer 628
R Henderson 579
Goldstein 578
Petrie 522
As previously stated, SC Gold projections are notoriously inaccurate. Having said that, they did successfully predict Beams to go nuts late last season. I'd be a little surprised if Kreuzer achieved their prediction, and fall off my chair surprised if R Henderson did! Some of you might ask why I am using SC Gold in this analysis, if it is so inaccurate. The reason is, it is the only independent, non-biased projection we have!
To me it is simple. You need to decide which of Cox or Kennedy JJ will be the higher scorer in the last 5 games.
If you think Cox will out score Kennedy JJ (I do), then it is:
Staker out, Cox down, Goldstein in, Kennedy JJ to bench as back up.
If you think Kennedy JJ will out score Cox, then it is;
Nicholls out, Goldstein in, Cox to bench.
Obviously if you believe SC Gold you can choose Kreuzer over Goldstein. Unless you are very confident that is the case, I wouldn't do it! Some might ask "Why?", as there are more teams with Goldstein than Kreuzer, so you are creating more POD's in those above match ups. My reason is two-fold. By bringing in Goldstein you insure against him going large consistently, and you block that POD against you. If it is via Nicholls it also puts Cox onto nearly all those Coaches POD lists against you. It means in those Match Ups he is up against your Harvey in most cases. With the Coaches that don't have Goldstein he becomes a positive POD for you. If you think Cox is capable of taking it large with NicNat out, then the Kennedy JJ out of your starting 22 option is probably better, as you protect that scenario as nearly every Coach in the top section has Cox somewhere! (26 of the top 28 Coaches have him at the moment)
I actually wrote a little more the first time, but as I said I lost it, and now it's just a little jumbled in my head, sorry.
Whichever way you jump, I wish you good luck
edit - I've also pm'ed you something just for your eyes.
I finally have an answer for you, Jakob. Sorry about all the delays.
You have probably looked at the table at Who SC Gold Thinks Will Win $50,000. The idea behind that table was to see who was most likely to finish in front of you, as the teams stand now. Now we have established who your biggest competition is, I thought we'd look at how your team matches up against the ten teams projected to finish in front of you. I also included your match up against BigRuss' TheRustyFishHooks for your SA rivalry, and Dunny's Destroyers, as he tweeted he has 3 trades left, and was surprised I left him out of the table!
I know these tables aren't necessary to the advice, I just thought you might be interested to see a comparison of your team to your nearest competitors.
Basically the thing to trading late in the season (any time really!), is to choose to trade players that will give you the greatest potential increase in points, or to raise cash to do that.
At one point you were considering Hanley out to try and improve your D6. I know you have discounted that as an option now, as Hanley is hopefully back soon. I'd just like to make a short point, that that was never an option, unless you have 5 or more trades left. The problem is that the best Defs score at around 102-105 this season. If you are upgrading a 70-80 point player, and already have all the best Defs, you're not looking at a very big upgrade. Maybe 10-15 points/week, if you are lucky. You want more than that.
Your weakest links, according to the SC Gold analysis, are Cox and JJK. They are the players you need to target for improvement. Now by targeting them, I am not necessarily talking of trading them out, but just removing them from your starting 22.
You also made a point of saying in your question that you were considering Trading Nicholls to Goldstein. To do this requires $134,600. As you didn't suggest a second cash raising trade, I am going to assume you have that much cash to spend. I also don't know if you have 2, 3 or more trades left (don't tell me how many you have!), so I am just going to deal with this one trade and the cash assumption in front of us.
SC Gold actually have the highest scoring Ruck and Forwards for the rest of the season, that you don't have, as:
Kreuzer 628
R Henderson 579
Goldstein 578
Petrie 522
As previously stated, SC Gold projections are notoriously inaccurate. Having said that, they did successfully predict Beams to go nuts late last season. I'd be a little surprised if Kreuzer achieved their prediction, and fall off my chair surprised if R Henderson did! Some of you might ask why I am using SC Gold in this analysis, if it is so inaccurate. The reason is, it is the only independent, non-biased projection we have!
To me it is simple. You need to decide which of Cox or Kennedy JJ will be the higher scorer in the last 5 games.
If you think Cox will out score Kennedy JJ (I do
), then it is:Staker out, Cox down, Goldstein in, Kennedy JJ to bench as back up.
If you think Kennedy JJ will out score Cox, then it is;
Nicholls out, Goldstein in, Cox to bench.
Obviously if you believe SC Gold you can choose Kreuzer over Goldstein. Unless you are very confident that is the case, I wouldn't do it! Some might ask "Why?", as there are more teams with Goldstein than Kreuzer, so you are creating more POD's in those above match ups. My reason is two-fold. By bringing in Goldstein you insure against him going large consistently, and you block that POD against you. If it is via Nicholls it also puts Cox onto nearly all those Coaches POD lists against you. It means in those Match Ups he is up against your Harvey in most cases. With the Coaches that don't have Goldstein he becomes a positive POD for you. If you think Cox is capable of taking it large with NicNat out, then the Kennedy JJ out of your starting 22 option is probably better, as you protect that scenario as nearly every Coach in the top section has Cox somewhere! (26 of the top 28 Coaches have him at the moment)
I actually wrote a little more the first time, but as I said I lost it, and now it's just a little jumbled in my head, sorry.
Whichever way you jump, I wish you good luck
edit - I've also pm'ed you something just for your eyes.
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Hi Foxy,
first of all, congratulations, it's a good looking team, and you're well placed to achieve your goals.
I think you need to make 2 trades, and then wait and see what happens.
My own opinion is, that NicNat is cooked. I will be very surprised if he plays too many more games this season, and if he does, whether he'll post any meaningful scores. They don't achieve much by playing him. Mathematically, they can make the finals, but form and draw-wise, they're done for the season. I know what Worsfold said about no early surgeries, but that will change with another loss or two.
You may be suffering from "paralysis by analysis". In other words, over thinking things so much, it makes it nearly impossible to make a move, let alone a confident one.
Your analysis of your team is pretty much spot on. You need to fix your D6, and your R2/F6. You've got some great DPP's set up, and I wouldn't be too concerned about missing the D/M link.
Looking at your tradeable players, I would list it as:
Terlich, Clisby, Viney, NicNat, Nicholls (Gawn would be here too, but it's not unreasonable to want him at R3). Looking at their prices and B/E's:
NicNat - $450,200 - 132
Terlich - $416,200 - 133
Nicholls - $401,900 - 125
Viney - $284,500 - 53
Clisby - $243,700 - 23
The bottom 2 aren't going to lose much, the top 3 will drop in price at their next game, and have injury queries.
I don't think your concerns about Shaw are justified. He is the obvious choice for Def Prem. I think you'd be more worried about Dixon, if you got him in. There has to be some doubts about him getting through the season from here.
I think there is no need to sit on cash for now. Don't be afraid to use what you have, if it makes 2 genuine upgrades. I don't often suggest the obvious players, but in your case it really looks like you'd be best served by Shaw and Goldstein. They cost $1,036,400 and subtracting your $355,800 means we are looking for $680,600 to get them both in. Even though Terlich will drop a little cash, and Clisby will still make some, I think if Terlich is picked this week you trade NicNat/Clisby to Goldstein/Shaw. Terlich doesn't go under 70 too often, and Clisby doesn't go over it too often. Terlich makes a much better D7 for you. With Hanley still out, you can look at Terlich's score and decide between him and Staker. That's pretty good for D6 until Hanley is back.
From there, I'd wait and see what's happening with Nicholls. You don't want him to lose too much cash before you turn him into McBean. This will give you the cash to turn Viney into Jack K. and leave your team looking like this:
Def: Goddard, Heppell, Gibbs, McKenzie, Shaw, Hanley - Terlich, Richards (+ Staker)
Mid: Ablett, Pendles, Swan, Jelwood, Danger, Barlow, Fyfe, Jack - Mitchell T, Neade (+ Walker, Rocky, SJ, Bartel)
Ruc: Goldstein, Minson - Gawn, McBean (+ Cox, Rowe)
Fwd: Walker, Cox, Bartel, Rocky, SJ, JJK - Staker, Rowe (+ Neade, McBean, Richards)
That's a very strong looking team, with good coverage. You have at least 2 useful back ups on every line, bar your Fwd line, and lots of loopholing possibilities. That Fwd problem might be your "weakness", and why you'd keep that trade up your sleeve. If it really concerns you about the back up, bring in Harvey instead of Jack. You then can loophole him and Mitchell, and he covers 4 of your starting 6 Fwds in case one is out, and Staker is needed elsewhere.
I'd wait on doing the Nicholls McBean trade a week or 2 if you can, just in case things go pear-shaped. Keep an eye on the prices, so you are sure you can get the Viney upgrade that you want.
From there, I'd hold the last trade and the $30-40K until the last week, just in case.
I hope this helped, even though it's not very imaginative. Sometimes, for some Coaches, the obvious picks/suggestions are obvious for a reason. You have the opportunity to bring in the number 1 Ruck and Defender. There doesn't seem to be a good reason to not do it.
Good luck
first of all, congratulations, it's a good looking team, and you're well placed to achieve your goals.
I think you need to make 2 trades, and then wait and see what happens.
My own opinion is, that NicNat is cooked. I will be very surprised if he plays too many more games this season, and if he does, whether he'll post any meaningful scores. They don't achieve much by playing him. Mathematically, they can make the finals, but form and draw-wise, they're done for the season. I know what Worsfold said about no early surgeries, but that will change with another loss or two.
You may be suffering from "paralysis by analysis". In other words, over thinking things so much, it makes it nearly impossible to make a move, let alone a confident one.
Your analysis of your team is pretty much spot on. You need to fix your D6, and your R2/F6. You've got some great DPP's set up, and I wouldn't be too concerned about missing the D/M link.
Looking at your tradeable players, I would list it as:
Terlich, Clisby, Viney, NicNat, Nicholls (Gawn would be here too, but it's not unreasonable to want him at R3). Looking at their prices and B/E's:
NicNat - $450,200 - 132
Terlich - $416,200 - 133
Nicholls - $401,900 - 125
Viney - $284,500 - 53
Clisby - $243,700 - 23
The bottom 2 aren't going to lose much, the top 3 will drop in price at their next game, and have injury queries.
I don't think your concerns about Shaw are justified. He is the obvious choice for Def Prem. I think you'd be more worried about Dixon, if you got him in. There has to be some doubts about him getting through the season from here.
I think there is no need to sit on cash for now. Don't be afraid to use what you have, if it makes 2 genuine upgrades. I don't often suggest the obvious players, but in your case it really looks like you'd be best served by Shaw and Goldstein. They cost $1,036,400 and subtracting your $355,800 means we are looking for $680,600 to get them both in. Even though Terlich will drop a little cash, and Clisby will still make some, I think if Terlich is picked this week you trade NicNat/Clisby to Goldstein/Shaw. Terlich doesn't go under 70 too often, and Clisby doesn't go over it too often. Terlich makes a much better D7 for you. With Hanley still out, you can look at Terlich's score and decide between him and Staker. That's pretty good for D6 until Hanley is back.
From there, I'd wait and see what's happening with Nicholls. You don't want him to lose too much cash before you turn him into McBean. This will give you the cash to turn Viney into Jack K. and leave your team looking like this:
Def: Goddard, Heppell, Gibbs, McKenzie, Shaw, Hanley - Terlich, Richards (+ Staker)
Mid: Ablett, Pendles, Swan, Jelwood, Danger, Barlow, Fyfe, Jack - Mitchell T, Neade (+ Walker, Rocky, SJ, Bartel)
Ruc: Goldstein, Minson - Gawn, McBean (+ Cox, Rowe)
Fwd: Walker, Cox, Bartel, Rocky, SJ, JJK - Staker, Rowe (+ Neade, McBean, Richards)
That's a very strong looking team, with good coverage. You have at least 2 useful back ups on every line, bar your Fwd line, and lots of loopholing possibilities. That Fwd problem might be your "weakness", and why you'd keep that trade up your sleeve. If it really concerns you about the back up, bring in Harvey instead of Jack. You then can loophole him and Mitchell, and he covers 4 of your starting 6 Fwds in case one is out, and Staker is needed elsewhere.
I'd wait on doing the Nicholls McBean trade a week or 2 if you can, just in case things go pear-shaped. Keep an eye on the prices, so you are sure you can get the Viney upgrade that you want.
From there, I'd hold the last trade and the $30-40K until the last week, just in case.
I hope this helped, even though it's not very imaginative. Sometimes, for some Coaches, the obvious picks/suggestions are obvious for a reason. You have the opportunity to bring in the number 1 Ruck and Defender. There doesn't seem to be a good reason to not do it.
Good luck
The way in which you've examined my team and broken down the proposed trades makes it much easier to get my head around things - and listing my team (with all DPP cover) is a great way to get a snapshot of what cover you really have.
Your advice re specific players has really got me thinking (over analysing?) the merits or otherwise of these players and also brought a couple of other players to mind also. What it has also done is focussed my attention to the defence and ruck lines and greatly reduced the potential players that I'll be considering. Think that Shaw will be a no-brainer - will check and see if Terlich is named this week though before completing this trade - but going to run a couple of scenarios in the rucks involving both Goldy and Kreuzer which may be dependant upon available cash and whether Nicholls is back this weekend as I read somewhere that he might be.
Nice to be able to make a couple of trades when it appears that most of the front runners at least have few or none remaining, but also thinking that if I was in that position I would be saving hours each week by not having to research potential trades. Who am I kidding, I'd spend just as long over-analysing the loopholes, DPP's and captain choices!
Thanks heaps Rowsus and apologies again for my delay in responding. I'll let you know which way I jump.
Hi Willy,
Here are some Watson scenarios for you. All the prices are are +/-$300, as players prices and B/E's are calculated to decimal places, but reported in rounded up numbers. For example, Watson real price may be $528,944, and his B/E 176.8.
Price changes are calculated on the following formula: Change = (score - B/E)*440
The top row of the table shows his changes according to score in his first game back.
The table below that shows what his changes will be in week 2, dependant on what he scores in week 1.
So for example, if he scores 100 week 1, and 110 week 2, the table shows:
In week 1 he goes to: Price $495,000, B/E 183.
In week 2 he goes to: Price $462,700, B/E 78.
I hope this helps.
Good luck
Here are some Watson scenarios for you. All the prices are are +/-$300, as players prices and B/E's are calculated to decimal places, but reported in rounded up numbers. For example, Watson real price may be $528,944, and his B/E 176.8.
Price changes are calculated on the following formula: Change = (score - B/E)*440
The top row of the table shows his changes according to score in his first game back.
The table below that shows what his changes will be in week 2, dependant on what he scores in week 1.
So for example, if he scores 100 week 1, and 110 week 2, the table shows:
In week 1 he goes to: Price $495,000, B/E 183.
In week 2 he goes to: Price $462,700, B/E 78.
I hope this helps.
Good luck
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Hi Willy,
Here are some Watson scenarios for you. All the prices are are +/-$300, as players prices and B/E's are calculated to decimal places, but reported in rounded up numbers. For example, Watson real price may be $528,944, and his B/E 176.8.
Price changes are calculated on the following formula: Change = (score - B/E)*440
The top row of the table shows his changes according to score in his first game back.
The table below that shows what his changes will be in week 2, dependant on what he scores in week 1.
So for example, if he scores 100 week 1, and 110 week 2, the table shows:
In week 1 he goes to: Price $495,000, B/E 183.
In week 2 he goes to: Price $462,700, B/E 78.
I hope this helps.
Good luck
Here are some Watson scenarios for you. All the prices are are +/-$300, as players prices and B/E's are calculated to decimal places, but reported in rounded up numbers. For example, Watson real price may be $528,944, and his B/E 176.8.
Price changes are calculated on the following formula: Change = (score - B/E)*440
The top row of the table shows his changes according to score in his first game back.
The table below that shows what his changes will be in week 2, dependant on what he scores in week 1.
So for example, if he scores 100 week 1, and 110 week 2, the table shows:
In week 1 he goes to: Price $495,000, B/E 183.
In week 2 he goes to: Price $462,700, B/E 78.
I hope this helps.
Good luck
I look forward to reading this when off a work computer where the graphics have been removed.
Willy