Position Midfielder Discussion
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Macrae, Cripps, Dunkley Oliver, and Zerrett for me to start off with 3 of Fyfe, Neale, Danger and Titch the most likely upgrade targets.
Hard to plan for including Josh Kelly given his recent injury history.
I think the first 3 choices are self-explanatory but I could go for somebody cheaper than Macrae if necessary, probably Danger or Titch if he is fit and looks good.
Oliver I think has the capacity to go over 115+ average and Zerrett is just a safe cheaper option I feel is very capable of going 110+ who I prefer to Yeo due to price and to Cogs due to injury and scoring history. Zerrett started to be held in higher regard by Champion data last year according to a video on the AFL website and the player rating system so I also hope that transfers into more favouritism.
Hard to plan for including Josh Kelly given his recent injury history.
I think the first 3 choices are self-explanatory but I could go for somebody cheaper than Macrae if necessary, probably Danger or Titch if he is fit and looks good.
Oliver I think has the capacity to go over 115+ average and Zerrett is just a safe cheaper option I feel is very capable of going 110+ who I prefer to Yeo due to price and to Cogs due to injury and scoring history. Zerrett started to be held in higher regard by Champion data last year according to a video on the AFL website and the player rating system so I also hope that transfers into more favouritism.
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Hmmm hard to say because I don't feel like he was tagged an incredible amount in the 1st place and I think with Yeo, Shuey, Kelly, Gaff and Sheed there might be too much point sharing in your midfield so that they all take a bit of a step back as individual scorers.
At the same time I always feel like Yeo has a high ceiling as a scorer and has a huge season in him if everything clicks for him. He also doesn't have an injury going into this preseason like he had last year.
At the same time I always feel like Yeo has a high ceiling as a scorer and has a huge season in him if everything clicks for him. He also doesn't have an injury going into this preseason like he had last year.
Nice picks and rationale, we are thinking very similarly in many respects. Two areas of slight difference are:
Dunkley - these are the sorts of picks I almost always avoid, are you expecting him to beat last year’s average, or are you happy if he matches it?
Zerrett - I was big on him last year but he was a bit disappointing. Very durable and scored extremely well when very young, but hasn’t really gone up that extra level as yet. Do you think that’s still realistic with Shiel etc in the side?
Dunkley - these are the sorts of picks I almost always avoid, are you expecting him to beat last year’s average, or are you happy if he matches it?
Zerrett - I was big on him last year but he was a bit disappointing. Very durable and scored extremely well when very young, but hasn’t really gone up that extra level as yet. Do you think that’s still realistic with Shiel etc in the side?
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Yeah I'm not as sure of those two picks and the Macrae pick as I am with the Oliver and Cripps picks.
The Dunkley one definitely carries a bit of risk and it is the kind of pick that is often worth avoiding in the sense that he has just averaged way more than he ever has in the past, so maybe we don't have enough insurance that he will maintain a high average. You are buying him at peak price. At the same time he has a massive ceiling and was very dominant when he moved permanently into the midfield last season. I know that having a standout season in year 4 doesn't mean that things will continue to be rosy going forward even if it's better than having a standout season in year 8. That said he did show a lot in late 2018 and again in 2019 when given a full time mid role. The high ceiling is what is selling him and drawing me to him and I also have concerns at the same price with Fyfe (injury), Danger (recent history), Kelly (injury) and Neale (standout season in year 8 and his scoring dropped off when he started copping tags) and Titch (not sure if he's starting round 1). I think I'd rather fade Macrae instead of him if I go to one of these other picks purely based on Macrae's price and the possibility I pick him up cheaper early in the year.
Zerrett is an interesting one. I currently have him in my team because I can't afford a better midfielder and I reckon he can still go 110+ if all things go well for him. He's basically in as a safe pick and because CD are saying he's improving the little parts of his game, if he can mix the volume he's always had with quality you could see an uptick in average. I'd consider guys like Yeo, Mitch Duncan, and even Matt Crouch if I bite my tongue at this price but I'm just after a safe pick who is about 550-590k. I also have Z Williams in the team ahead of Laird so changing that or any changes to my team might mean I can afford a better player. Laird is at a good price but I worry that he was affected by the 6-6-6 rule change and won't be able to go back to 105+. A long way to go so who knows who I'll be able to afford in the midfield.
The Dunkley one definitely carries a bit of risk and it is the kind of pick that is often worth avoiding in the sense that he has just averaged way more than he ever has in the past, so maybe we don't have enough insurance that he will maintain a high average. You are buying him at peak price. At the same time he has a massive ceiling and was very dominant when he moved permanently into the midfield last season. I know that having a standout season in year 4 doesn't mean that things will continue to be rosy going forward even if it's better than having a standout season in year 8. That said he did show a lot in late 2018 and again in 2019 when given a full time mid role. The high ceiling is what is selling him and drawing me to him and I also have concerns at the same price with Fyfe (injury), Danger (recent history), Kelly (injury) and Neale (standout season in year 8 and his scoring dropped off when he started copping tags) and Titch (not sure if he's starting round 1). I think I'd rather fade Macrae instead of him if I go to one of these other picks purely based on Macrae's price and the possibility I pick him up cheaper early in the year.
Zerrett is an interesting one. I currently have him in my team because I can't afford a better midfielder and I reckon he can still go 110+ if all things go well for him. He's basically in as a safe pick and because CD are saying he's improving the little parts of his game, if he can mix the volume he's always had with quality you could see an uptick in average. I'd consider guys like Yeo, Mitch Duncan, and even Matt Crouch if I bite my tongue at this price but I'm just after a safe pick who is about 550-590k. I also have Z Williams in the team ahead of Laird so changing that or any changes to my team might mean I can afford a better player. Laird is at a good price but I worry that he was affected by the 6-6-6 rule change and won't be able to go back to 105+. A long way to go so who knows who I'll be able to afford in the midfield.
Fair points. Arguably you’re looking at around 2.5 seasons of elite scoring from Macrae and 1.5 from Dunkley, so there’s not a massive difference in that respect. I can’t recall off hand whether Dunkley copped tags this year but he’s the sort of player that some people tend to extrapolate with (eg if he’s delivered 116 in his 4th year ... although you’re obviously not doing that), perhaps without considering that elite players tend to draw their own attention, and that can lead to a plateau/decline in scoring, especially in the first full season after they go to top level.
As for Zerrett, he does look like a low downside pick and probably one you don’t need to worry too much about missing games etc. I suspect he does have another 110 season in him but I’m not sure whether he’ll get to 120, whereas a few years ago I would have thought he was on that type of trajectory.
In rough order, my preferred picks on the def and mid lines are something like:
Doc if fit, Sicily, probably Laird. Mildly concerned that that only gives me something like 1 of the top 8 or 10 defs from last year, which included significant score changes. I don’t like locking too many spots in with so few of the big names, and am always trying to balance that with value. Happy to fade the likes of Hurn and Houli (older, not quite premium for a long time) but there’s obviously a limit to how much you should bet against recent history.
Mitchell if fit, Oliver, Macrae/Neale/Cripps. Did like the look of Ward a lot, but his price is much higher than I had thought.
As for Zerrett, he does look like a low downside pick and probably one you don’t need to worry too much about missing games etc. I suspect he does have another 110 season in him but I’m not sure whether he’ll get to 120, whereas a few years ago I would have thought he was on that type of trajectory.
In rough order, my preferred picks on the def and mid lines are something like:
Doc if fit, Sicily, probably Laird. Mildly concerned that that only gives me something like 1 of the top 8 or 10 defs from last year, which included significant score changes. I don’t like locking too many spots in with so few of the big names, and am always trying to balance that with value. Happy to fade the likes of Hurn and Houli (older, not quite premium for a long time) but there’s obviously a limit to how much you should bet against recent history.
Mitchell if fit, Oliver, Macrae/Neale/Cripps. Did like the look of Ward a lot, but his price is much higher than I had thought.
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I think Dunkley copped a tag only in the 2nd half versus Essendon and it didn’t do much to stop him (Clarke wasn’t a brilliant tagger though). I think he might get more attention but is also protected from tags by Bont (and so is Macrae) who I think is their best player and is rated as their best player by opposition coaches even if he isn’t quite as good at SuperCoach. If Dunkley continues to dominate he will inevitably see some attention at stages but he doesn’t strike me as a player who would struggle with them. He averaged 128 in the last 16 games after moving to play full time midfield and it’s that ceiling that draws me to him.
Merrett I think is safe at that price like you say and I think if he gets more love from CD like he did at stages last season he can definitely get to 110 and I think a 115 avg is also possible. He could also turn into Yeo or another mid around that price.
I think you can afford a couple of midpriced keepers in the back line because the back line is fairly inconsistent and open. I’d say Houli, Hurn, Stewart, Rich, Newman, Rampe and Daniel are insecure inside that top 10. I think Laird and Lloyd are the most likely to end up in the top 6 with Zac Williams having a high ceiling based on the back end of last year. I’ve always been a fan of Williams and was going to start him in 2018 before he did his Achilles. He’s always rated as the number 1 general defender by Champion Data and scorespoints rapidly when he’s playing well. A bit injury prone though.
I rate Sicily as a pick as it seems he will have a role change where he plays more like he did in 2018 as an interceptor and half back as opposed to a key defender as long as everybody else is fit and playing. I would worry that with an injury he could have a role change straight back to playing on a tall as a key defender, which is not ideal. At the moment I have Williams who could turn into Laird or Sicily along with Houston who could also turn into either of those two to go with Doch as my keepers (hopefully Doch stays fit). I was considering Byrne-Jones but Rowsus alerted us that he really only scored well when Burton was out of the team, which put me off for now (I think a move to more time on the wing was also responsible and he might have coincidentally broken out at the same time as Burton missed games) Then I have Doedee as a midpriced cash cow but he could turn into Roberton. If I pick Jordan Dawson it would be as a forward but I think I’ll pass on him.
You might have to worry somewhat that the likes of Rich, Hurn Stewart and Houli will be in the top 10 again simply because of how many points they generate from kick outs, but all seem overpriced and probably won’t hurt you if you don’t start them.
Merrett I think is safe at that price like you say and I think if he gets more love from CD like he did at stages last season he can definitely get to 110 and I think a 115 avg is also possible. He could also turn into Yeo or another mid around that price.
I think you can afford a couple of midpriced keepers in the back line because the back line is fairly inconsistent and open. I’d say Houli, Hurn, Stewart, Rich, Newman, Rampe and Daniel are insecure inside that top 10. I think Laird and Lloyd are the most likely to end up in the top 6 with Zac Williams having a high ceiling based on the back end of last year. I’ve always been a fan of Williams and was going to start him in 2018 before he did his Achilles. He’s always rated as the number 1 general defender by Champion Data and scorespoints rapidly when he’s playing well. A bit injury prone though.
I rate Sicily as a pick as it seems he will have a role change where he plays more like he did in 2018 as an interceptor and half back as opposed to a key defender as long as everybody else is fit and playing. I would worry that with an injury he could have a role change straight back to playing on a tall as a key defender, which is not ideal. At the moment I have Williams who could turn into Laird or Sicily along with Houston who could also turn into either of those two to go with Doch as my keepers (hopefully Doch stays fit). I was considering Byrne-Jones but Rowsus alerted us that he really only scored well when Burton was out of the team, which put me off for now (I think a move to more time on the wing was also responsible and he might have coincidentally broken out at the same time as Burton missed games) Then I have Doedee as a midpriced cash cow but he could turn into Roberton. If I pick Jordan Dawson it would be as a forward but I think I’ll pass on him.
You might have to worry somewhat that the likes of Rich, Hurn Stewart and Houli will be in the top 10 again simply because of how many points they generate from kick outs, but all seem overpriced and probably won’t hurt you if you don’t start them.
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Dunkley's an interesting pick, I feel more cautious type coaches will avoid him for the reason that he hasn't yet backed up a 110+ season for obvious reasons and the fact that the Doggies midfield is loaded and all may not continue to score so highly, also, he isn't cheap.
But there are a few signs that Dunks might be the exception to the rule.
1. Not many players are even capable of a 200+ score, only the megastars, plus the 3 other scores over 150! that he scored this year.
2. I recall reading an article about how so few players break out by 20+ points 2 years in a row, which Dunkley did.
I think if you are betting against Dunkley being a Cripps type megastar it has to be because of possible game plan or role changes at the Dogs, which with what Dunkley has shown seems unlikely.
I am going to back him in to belonging in that special category of SC player.
But there are a few signs that Dunks might be the exception to the rule.
1. Not many players are even capable of a 200+ score, only the megastars, plus the 3 other scores over 150! that he scored this year.
2. I recall reading an article about how so few players break out by 20+ points 2 years in a row, which Dunkley did.
I think if you are betting against Dunkley being a Cripps type megastar it has to be because of possible game plan or role changes at the Dogs, which with what Dunkley has shown seems unlikely.
I am going to back him in to belonging in that special category of SC player.
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