Position Midfielder Discussion
- Thread starter IDIG
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I think Fyfe would be a counter example to the Brownlow theory, but I agree re up and comers. As someone posted on Twitter, this probably works better for established players than up and comers who hadn't reached their 'level' at the start of the three year period. It may also give the wrong signal for players in decline.
Oliver was close to my first player picked. He was playing horribly early last year, with many owners complaining about it - but he still averaged around 100 or so. I remember thinking that if he averaged 100 when playing poorly, he could be a good pick for this year. He hasn't missed a game since his debut year in 2016, has posted three years of 109+ and is only 22. Melbourne only finished ahead of Gold Coast as well. There seems to be a lot working in his favour as I see it.
Edit: Oliver also had an interrupted preseason last year. He had done a lot of swimming the prior year to lift his fitness, but IIRC was unable to do this because of surgery on his shoulder(s) in the 2018-19 off season. That's another potential tailwind heading into 2020 if his shoulders are right and he is able to train as he wishes.
Oliver was close to my first player picked. He was playing horribly early last year, with many owners complaining about it - but he still averaged around 100 or so. I remember thinking that if he averaged 100 when playing poorly, he could be a good pick for this year. He hasn't missed a game since his debut year in 2016, has posted three years of 109+ and is only 22. Melbourne only finished ahead of Gold Coast as well. There seems to be a lot working in his favour as I see it.
Edit: Oliver also had an interrupted preseason last year. He had done a lot of swimming the prior year to lift his fitness, but IIRC was unable to do this because of surgery on his shoulder(s) in the 2018-19 off season. That's another potential tailwind heading into 2020 if his shoulders are right and he is able to train as he wishes.
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C Oliver:
Wins: 116.94 from 31 (1/31 below 80, 8/31 below 100, 11/31 120+)
2017: 114.08 from 12
2018: 116.14 from 14
2019: 126 from 5
Losses: 107.31 from 35 (4/35 below 80, 11/35 below 100, 10/35 120+)
2017: 108.3 from 10
2018: 112.13 from 8
2019: 104.47 from 17
Pre Bye: 110.97 from 34 (3/34 below 80, 11/34 below 100, 12/34 120+)
2017: 112.1 from 10
2018: 114.17 from 12
2019: 106.83 from 12
Post Bye: 112.75 from 32 (2/34 below 80, 8/32 below 100, 9/32 120+)
2017: 110.92 from 12
2018: 115.3 from 10
2019: 112.4 from 10
Disposals avg between 2017-2019: 29.92
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 30: 120.47 from 36 (0/36 below 80, 5/36 below 100, 15/36 120+)
SC avg when disposals below 30: 101.47 from 30 (5/30 below 80, 14/30 below 100, 6/30 120+)
Contested possessions avg between 2017-2019: 16.12
SC avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 17: 123.58 from 26 (0/26 below 80, 3/26 below 100, 12/26 120+)
SC avg when contested possessions below 17: 104.2 from 40 (5/40 below 80, 16/40 below 100, 9/40 120+)
Tackles avg between 2017-2019: 6.67
SC avg when tackles equal/exceed 7: 121.97 from 30 (1/30 below 80, 4/30 below 100, 14/30 120+)
SC avg when tackles below 7: 103.39 from 36 (4/30 below 80, 15/36 below 100, 7/36 120+)
Wins: 116.94 from 31 (1/31 below 80, 8/31 below 100, 11/31 120+)
2017: 114.08 from 12
2018: 116.14 from 14
2019: 126 from 5
Losses: 107.31 from 35 (4/35 below 80, 11/35 below 100, 10/35 120+)
2017: 108.3 from 10
2018: 112.13 from 8
2019: 104.47 from 17
Pre Bye: 110.97 from 34 (3/34 below 80, 11/34 below 100, 12/34 120+)
2017: 112.1 from 10
2018: 114.17 from 12
2019: 106.83 from 12
Post Bye: 112.75 from 32 (2/34 below 80, 8/32 below 100, 9/32 120+)
2017: 110.92 from 12
2018: 115.3 from 10
2019: 112.4 from 10
Disposals avg between 2017-2019: 29.92
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 30: 120.47 from 36 (0/36 below 80, 5/36 below 100, 15/36 120+)
SC avg when disposals below 30: 101.47 from 30 (5/30 below 80, 14/30 below 100, 6/30 120+)
Contested possessions avg between 2017-2019: 16.12
SC avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 17: 123.58 from 26 (0/26 below 80, 3/26 below 100, 12/26 120+)
SC avg when contested possessions below 17: 104.2 from 40 (5/40 below 80, 16/40 below 100, 9/40 120+)
Tackles avg between 2017-2019: 6.67
SC avg when tackles equal/exceed 7: 121.97 from 30 (1/30 below 80, 4/30 below 100, 14/30 120+)
SC avg when tackles below 7: 103.39 from 36 (4/30 below 80, 15/36 below 100, 7/36 120+)
For me he is 5th in line (behind Oliver, Macrae, Cripps and Neale, in rough order) which means he's not in my side at the moment.
I think it largely depends on whether you think he's in physical decline. He will turn 30 soon and that's usually not a good sign, especially for a mid. Equally he has PIT averaged at elite level seven of the last eight years, so he has plenty of runs on the board. I would likely start him had Steven not turned up ... I think Geelong have too many mids for my liking.
Here's a question ... would you rather start Lloyd or Danger? Ie:
Danger vs Lloyd + 35k
I think it largely depends on whether you think he's in physical decline. He will turn 30 soon and that's usually not a good sign, especially for a mid. Equally he has PIT averaged at elite level seven of the last eight years, so he has plenty of runs on the board. I would likely start him had Steven not turned up ... I think Geelong have too many mids for my liking.
Here's a question ... would you rather start Lloyd or Danger? Ie:
Danger vs Lloyd + 35k
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It's age, games played, bash and crash style and mid only. It's not that I'm predicting a great drop in output but he's no longer the standout player in the comp and he is one of a handful of mids that could fill M4-M6. Even if he maintains his scoring he's a good pick but not an essential pick and at his stage in career he is more likely to go backwards or be rested than to improve so it's reasonable to bet against him. Lots of coaches kept picking Ablett, Pendles and Swan after they'd started to decline hoping for the good old days but they never happened.
I'm keen on Oliver like you and others have mentioned. Still only 22 years old. I'd like to take a punt on Josh Kelly. I believe having his first decent preseason for some years and 24 years old. Cripps appears to be a blue chip stock.
With Grundy and Gawn being so dominant it's taken pressure off the need to load up the midfield with captains loophole picks. How many keepers I stick in there will depend on where the cash cows fall.
I think Lloyd is a harder call. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. I am by nature a tight arse so I'll probably bet against him again to my detriment.
I'm keen on Oliver like you and others have mentioned. Still only 22 years old. I'd like to take a punt on Josh Kelly. I believe having his first decent preseason for some years and 24 years old. Cripps appears to be a blue chip stock.
With Grundy and Gawn being so dominant it's taken pressure off the need to load up the midfield with captains loophole picks. How many keepers I stick in there will depend on where the cash cows fall.
I think Lloyd is a harder call. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. I am by nature a tight arse so I'll probably bet against him again to my detriment.
Thanks for your thoughts - those are all fair points. Danger will probably remain my marginal mid because of the age factor and the risk of playing forward, which he did well a couple of years ago, but seems less able to dominate more recently. I think you may have even flagged that this time last year, which would have been correct.
I'm pretty sure that @Rowsus has shown that no one has ever fallen below a 120 average and been able to reclaim that level ... admittedly I'm not expecting that from Danger, but it does suggest that it's very tough for players to bounce back to absolute elite levels, let alone on the far side of 30. I've been guilty of picking the likes of Pendles and Gaz for too long, so it's something I'm trying to adjust going forward. The fact that there seem to be younger, very Hugh scoring, very durable options (eg Grundy, Neale, Oliver) means that there's also less need or temptation to back in aging superstars.
As it happens, I have also been very value focused in the past, but am erring slightly more towards quality and durability than discounted prices this year ... it seems to work for some of the very best coaches, and I suspect it makes life and trading easier.
I'm pretty sure that @Rowsus has shown that no one has ever fallen below a 120 average and been able to reclaim that level ... admittedly I'm not expecting that from Danger, but it does suggest that it's very tough for players to bounce back to absolute elite levels, let alone on the far side of 30. I've been guilty of picking the likes of Pendles and Gaz for too long, so it's something I'm trying to adjust going forward. The fact that there seem to be younger, very Hugh scoring, very durable options (eg Grundy, Neale, Oliver) means that there's also less need or temptation to back in aging superstars.
As it happens, I have also been very value focused in the past, but am erring slightly more towards quality and durability than discounted prices this year ... it seems to work for some of the very best coaches, and I suspect it makes life and trading easier.
Age has me second guessing Danger as a starting pick as well. He’s had quite a few hammy concerns over the last few years as well, surely they get worse with age? Can’t see him playing 22 games and if he’s more of a 110-115 avg player, could be a better trade in option if the price is right rather than a starting pick.
Younger and more durable players like Neale, Dunkley are not much more in price. Oliver is 30-40k cheaper.
Younger and more durable players like Neale, Dunkley are not much more in price. Oliver is 30-40k cheaper.
