Analysis BBL|09 Player's Price & Break Even Projections by TAILS

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#61
This thread is the first thing I look at post game @Tails. I noticed Jewell is priced $89,500 rather than $59,500. Hopefully that results a small rise in price! I can say I’m looking forward to picking up discounted stars :cool:
Thanks ... fat finger error that has now been amended

Always appreciate those that point them out ...
 
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#62
@Tails

I apologize in advance for asking this question , as you probably get sick and tired of repeating yourself , but since your boy Short has been called up for the ODI Squad , I am hoping for some leeway ?

The BE of 135 for eg Maxwell , is that what he needs to score in the 2 combined games in Round 5 ?

Cheers
That is his BE for his next game played but the actual "real" affect price and future BE will be calculated though the completion of two individual games if that makes sense ...
 
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#63
@Tails

I apologize in advance for asking this question , as you probably get sick and tired of repeating yourself , but since your boy Short has been called up for the ODI Squad , I am hoping for some leeway ?

The BE of 135 for eg Maxwell , is that what he needs to score in the 2 combined games in Round 5 ?

Cheers
I can save Tails some time here.

That is what Maxwell needs to maintain his price after game 1 of his double. Pending his score he will have a new be for his second game.

The takeaway is unless Maxwell goes ballistic in game one or 2 - he will be under 200k, potentially significantly, after round 5.

Edit: beaten to the punch
 
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#65
I can save Tails some time here.

That is what Maxwell needs to maintain his price after game 1 of his double. Pending his score he will have a new be for his second game.

The takeaway is unless Maxwell goes ballistic in game one or 2 - he will be under 200k, potentially significantly, after round 5.

Edit: beaten to the punch
Good to see you are coming to grips with how it all works ...
 

THCLT

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#66
@Tails

I apologize in advance for asking this question , as you probably get sick and tired of repeating yourself , but since your boy Short has been called up for the ODI Squad , I am hoping for some leeway ?

The BE of 135 for eg Maxwell , is that what he needs to score in the 2 combined games in Round 5 ?

Cheers
I'll step in to take some of the load...

The way the SC BBL site calculates player's pricing & BE is different to how they calculate for a player on a SG round. As pricing and BE is only calculated at the END of a round (not the end of EACH match), this complicates the process as the 'standard' formulas no longer can be apply to a player about to enter a DG round. Trust me, it took me a couple of years to finally crack the code so I'm not about to try and explain it on this forum...It's just too complicated.

The only way I can simplify things for you is to use a player's PTA figure for those that are about to enter a DG round and forget about the BE. In Maxwell's case, his R5 price will be approx. $217,600 meaning his PTA is roughly 75.6. Since the pricing calculation uses a 3-Rd rolling average, we can then work out what he needs to score in the 2 games in order to hold his price:

PTA = 75.6
His last score = 10
D1 = 1st R5 score
D2 = 2nd R5 score

3-Rd average to hold price = 75.6*3 = 226.8

So the pricing equation at the end of R5 becomes 227=10+D1+D2 or D1+D2=217

Therefore, for Maxwell to maintain his price at the completion of R5, he'll need a combine score of 217 over his 2 games.
 

THCLT

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#67
Our members are already on the ball...apology for repeating what has already been posted...but it was a long post...and I had to think about it...and I shouldn't be attempting to explain mathematics right about now....so just carry on please!
 
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#68
@Tails

I apologize in advance for asking this question , as you probably get sick and tired of repeating yourself , but since your boy Short has been called up for the ODI Squad , I am hoping for some leeway ?

The BE of 135 for eg Maxwell , is that what he needs to score in the 2 combined games in Round 5 ?

Cheers
Wrong thread but must admit I'm pretty happy that Short got the call up ... ball in his court now !!
 
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#71
Won't go back to that thread ... upset a poster or two !!
Hahaha fancy people being upset by you :)

Assuming they play Finch , Smith , Warner , Carey , 3 Fast & Zampa would leave 3 spots for Agar/Handscomb/Labuschagne/Short/Turner
 
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#72
Hahaha fancy people being upset by you :)

Assuming they play Finch , Smith , Warner , Carey , 3 Fast & Zampa would leave 3 spots for Agar/Handscomb/Labuschagne/Short/Turner
Looking at that I reckon he is a real chance to line up ... people seem to forget that he can potentially bat 3 - 6 and also roll the arm over ...
 
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#73
Hahaha fancy people being upset by you :)

Assuming they play Finch , Smith , Warner , Carey , 3 Fast & Zampa would leave 3 spots for Agar/Handscomb/Labuschagne/Short/Turner
New Years wish if I could have one ... Turner / Handscomb or any other fringe players to Maxwell ... would be my last post on team selections for now if that became the touring combo !!
 
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#74
Round 4 Game 3 update:

Note: ADE have now completed both of their games ...

1577792752520.png
Note: Conway won't get a price change due to not playing

1577793390080.png
Note: Tremain will get no price change due to not playing
 
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#77
Round 4 combined summary:

- Please note that the "New BE proj" and "New Price Proj" figures are foward looking before the start of next round ...
- I will provide another update before the start of next round with the "actual" BE's
- So if a player didn't play then there will be no price change
- Also if a player hasn't played 3 games yet then the starting BE for the next round will actually be different (hence point 2)

1577878799731.png
1577878833224.png
 
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#79
Brilliant, interested in doing the same for AFL SC? If you do I will worship you forever and a day. :love:(Maybe even after that).:devilish:
I could but too many players to track and not enough thread space .... have a concept in mind but it wouldn't involve "all" players ... more a case of selecting say the top ? in each position ...

Edit: and the mid-pricers and rookies of course ..
 
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#80
Round 5 BE calcs:

- Please point out any gremlins as this is a combined formula / manual process ...
- Edit: ...... the MN has now been adjusted for this round thanks to some input from @THCLT ...
- Didn't bother with those that have only played 1 game thus far ...

1577897923936.png
1577897960904.png
 
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