Position Defender Discussion
- Thread starter IDIG
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J Lloyd:
Wins Avg: 110.55 from 22 (1/22 below 80, 8/22 below 100, 7/22 120+)
2018: 112.36 from 14
2019: 107.38 from 8
Losses Avg: 110.41 from 22 (1/22 below 80, 6/22 below 100, 8/22 120+)
2018: 111.5 from 8
2019: 109.79 from 14
Pre Bye: 111.12 from 25 (1/25 below 80, 8/25 below 100, 9/25 120+)
2018: 105.15 from 13
2019: 117.58 from 12
Post Bye: 109.63 from 19 (1/19 below 80, 6/19 below 100, 6/19 120+)
2018: 122 from 9
2019: 98.5 from 10
Disposals Avg since 2018: 29.52 from 44
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 30: 122.52 from 21 (0/21 below 80, 3/21 below 100, 13/21 120+)
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 30: 99.48 from 23 (2/23 below 80, 11/23 below 100, 2/23 120+)
Wins Avg: 110.55 from 22 (1/22 below 80, 8/22 below 100, 7/22 120+)
2018: 112.36 from 14
2019: 107.38 from 8
Losses Avg: 110.41 from 22 (1/22 below 80, 6/22 below 100, 8/22 120+)
2018: 111.5 from 8
2019: 109.79 from 14
Pre Bye: 111.12 from 25 (1/25 below 80, 8/25 below 100, 9/25 120+)
2018: 105.15 from 13
2019: 117.58 from 12
Post Bye: 109.63 from 19 (1/19 below 80, 6/19 below 100, 6/19 120+)
2018: 122 from 9
2019: 98.5 from 10
Disposals Avg since 2018: 29.52 from 44
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 30: 122.52 from 21 (0/21 below 80, 3/21 below 100, 13/21 120+)
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 30: 99.48 from 23 (2/23 below 80, 11/23 below 100, 2/23 120+)
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Since he put out that tweet I’ve been trying to figure out round 15 and round 23.
The draft doctors only had Houston down for 6 CBA’s in round 15 and the heat map for round 23 looked like he played inside mid, so I was confused.
I went to my AFL app and watched all of the centre bounces from both games. He had 6/19 Centre bounce attendances in round 15 (played there til halfway into the second quarter) and 12/29 centre bounce attendances in round 23 (played there until the end of the 3rd quarter).
However he played time on the wing in round 15 and didn’t do so in round 23 so in the end he probably played over 65% of time in the midfield in round 15 and didn’t in round 23, which is why he’s classified as a pure mid.
Correcting for this in the 8 games where he played the greatest amount of time as an inside mid he averaged 101.5
The draft doctors only had Houston down for 6 CBA’s in round 15 and the heat map for round 23 looked like he played inside mid, so I was confused.
I went to my AFL app and watched all of the centre bounces from both games. He had 6/19 Centre bounce attendances in round 15 (played there til halfway into the second quarter) and 12/29 centre bounce attendances in round 23 (played there until the end of the 3rd quarter).
However he played time on the wing in round 15 and didn’t do so in round 23 so in the end he probably played over 65% of time in the midfield in round 15 and didn’t in round 23, which is why he’s classified as a pure mid.
Correcting for this in the 8 games where he played the greatest amount of time as an inside mid he averaged 101.5
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Houston moved into the mids round 14, and averaged 90 from there. There were a couple of stints down back after that, but broadly there was no significant increase on his yearly output - he had averaged 89 prior to round 14. Though he did only crack 5 tons last year, it's worth noting that 4 of them came from 14 onwards when in the mids.
That being said, he's clearly got a natural upward trajectory. I'd probably be keen on him if he didn't have such a huge ownership at such an early stage.
That being said, he's clearly got a natural upward trajectory. I'd probably be keen on him if he didn't have such a huge ownership at such an early stage.
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He didn't play inside midfield from rounds 15-18. He had 6 CBA's, 0 CBA's and 5 CBA's in his 3 games during this period.
https://thedraftdoctors.com.au/2019...unce-attendances-afl-fantasy-supercoach-gold/
https://thedraftdoctors.com.au/2019...ndances-round-16-afl-fantasy-supercoach-gold/
https://thedraftdoctors.com.au/2019...ndances-round-18-afl-fantasy-supercoach-gold/
His first game in the midfield was against the saints in round 11, where he attended the second most centre bounces in the team (22) behind only Boak. He scored 98.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/spor...e/news-story/24b889ce9cfa1603bdb43a5ce6135935
From there he played inside mid except for a patch from rounds 15-18. Not sure what he had against Freo in round 13 (75) but he had 12 CBA's vs Geelong (110), 16 CBA's vs GWS (85), 20 CBA's vs Essendon (134), 21 CBA's vs Sydney (88), 22 CBA's vs North (105) & 12 CBA's vs Freo (117) in round 23. All numbers are from the Draft Doctor's website except for round 23 against Freo, I counted those myself. His scores are in brackets.
The 8 games from rounds 11-14 and 19-23 where he played inside mid he averaged 101.5.
https://thedraftdoctors.com.au/2019...unce-attendances-afl-fantasy-supercoach-gold/
https://thedraftdoctors.com.au/2019...ndances-round-16-afl-fantasy-supercoach-gold/
https://thedraftdoctors.com.au/2019...ndances-round-18-afl-fantasy-supercoach-gold/
His first game in the midfield was against the saints in round 11, where he attended the second most centre bounces in the team (22) behind only Boak. He scored 98.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/spor...e/news-story/24b889ce9cfa1603bdb43a5ce6135935
From there he played inside mid except for a patch from rounds 15-18. Not sure what he had against Freo in round 13 (75) but he had 12 CBA's vs Geelong (110), 16 CBA's vs GWS (85), 20 CBA's vs Essendon (134), 21 CBA's vs Sydney (88), 22 CBA's vs North (105) & 12 CBA's vs Freo (117) in round 23. All numbers are from the Draft Doctor's website except for round 23 against Freo, I counted those myself. His scores are in brackets.
The 8 games from rounds 11-14 and 19-23 where he played inside mid he averaged 101.5.
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I agree that the enthusiasm for him as a pick really devalues him but I like him so much as a pick I’ll pick him anyway. I predicted he’d be in 5% of sides back in December, then thought he’d be in 10% as the hype picked up and was shocked to find he was in 20% when SC opened. I thought Dawson was getting more hype than Houston but he’s in half the amount of teams. Hopefully he drops down to 15% as he’s still something of a risk and you’re picking him for his price and not because he’s the safest player around.
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Going above and beyond with that research pizza safety. 
Hard to know what will happen at Port with so many mids being injured last year and Paddy leaving. Is Houston likely to hurt non owners? Looks like a neutral pick to me at the moment.
Hard to know what will happen at Port with so many mids being injured last year and Paddy leaving. Is Houston likely to hurt non owners? Looks like a neutral pick to me at the moment.
I do the most amount of research for players at his price because they’re not safe picks and they’re not cheap either, classic burn man territory.
Don’t think he hurts non-owners if he’s a success as he’s probably just getting to a 100 average. My reasoning for picking him is just that he’s on the cheaper side and is a potential top 6 defender, but that comes with some level of risk. If I get cold feet on him I’ll probably try to move up to Sicily. I’ve got Laird at D1 and Doch at D3.
Who have you got pencilled in defence at the moment ?
I'm struggling with my backline.
Laird is the only one I really like and even then only because it feels safe.
I can't bring myself to pick Lloyd at his price.
Hurn has peaked but is still probably a decent pick.
Not having a hot Docherty and Sicily scares me so they are in contention.
No one else stands out.
Houston, Dawson and Blakely are on my watch list. I think Blakely had issues with Ross and he has shown he can score at a mid keeper level when he is up and about. Freo could give us lots of breakout players this year with the chains being released but who?
I'm having trouble narrowing the field on other lines so I'm hoping the good rookies are in the backline. Laird and 7 rookies.
Laird is the only one I really like and even then only because it feels safe.
I can't bring myself to pick Lloyd at his price.
Hurn has peaked but is still probably a decent pick.
Not having a hot Docherty and Sicily scares me so they are in contention.
No one else stands out.
Houston, Dawson and Blakely are on my watch list. I think Blakely had issues with Ross and he has shown he can score at a mid keeper level when he is up and about. Freo could give us lots of breakout players this year with the chains being released but who?
I'm having trouble narrowing the field on other lines so I'm hoping the good rookies are in the backline. Laird and 7 rookies.