Questions for Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus.. Could do with some advice if you have the time?

Playing this week against a mate.. our teams are pretty similar so comes down to 10 v 10 unique players.

I have:
Hanley, Heppell, Barlow, Cotchin, Deledio, Priddis, Minson, Rockliff, Cloke and Pavlich (staker an emergency in the backline)

He has:
R.Henderson, Griffin, Jack, Fyfe, Dangerfield, Leuenberger, Jacobs, Walker and Franklin (staker a fwd emergency if franklin doesn't play)

In a quirky twist of fate the majority of my unique players will play Saturday while his will play Sunday.. I have 2 trades and not much cash so was considering trading Nicholls off the bench to Grundy to make some money, then Saturday night look at how my players have performed and work out if I need to use the last trade or can try and ride it out and pinch a win. Seems a massive risk given if his players perform on I'm cooked but I'm otherwise unsure of how best to approach this round, get a win and hopefully have something in the tank for the next few weeks! My current emergencies are staker (def), Mitchell (mid), Nicholls (ruc) and Lee (fwd).

Thanks in advance!

Hi Krieks,
good news for you, that your opponent has lost RHenderson!
I think it is risky leaving your 2nd trade, and trying to judge if you're in a strong position. It's best just to do the trade that suits your team. I'd be looking at:
Swapping Cox and McBean.
Trading Lee Down to Redpath, this gives you a great donut for loopholing, and raises $169k.
Upgrading Nicholls to Goldstein.
Moving Cloke to the bench with the (E) on him. We know he can go big, but he can let us down, too. At least this way you get to look at his score first.
Now you get Goldstein to replace the Cloke/Lee loophole score, and get Cloke as a wildcard in your Fwd line for the rest of the season.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

with 20 players i was wondering what Ramps had me scoring this week

RAMP has you scoring 2,321. Not a bad score for 20 players!
It has your 5 highest scoring players as :
Selwood J 141
Barlow 131
Swan 131
Pendlebury 128
Rockliff 128
RAMP suggests you put the (V) on Swan, and the (C) on Selwood.
Ablett is predicted to score 119.
Good luck

 

[Bobbie]

Hi Bobbie,
thanks for your patience, though I'm not sure I'm going to be much help. But I'll try.
I guess you got one bit of good news, seeing as you can't loophole in your Mids, it's good your opponent can't either!

As a one off, "I must win this week, and it doesn't matter what happens next week" suggestion I would really have gone out on a limb. JJK out, Cox down Lobbe in. Not just chasing last weeks points. I really think he can beat up on Gorringe this week. He has beaten up on some week Ruck combo's this year, and recorded over 50 hit outs last week! If he gets 50 again this week, he should score around 120 easy. The big problem is, he then plays Sandi/ZClarke next week, and Warnock/Kreuzer the next! Probably back to his 80 point level against them, which won't win you a Prelim or GF (probably)!
Given you want more than a one week wonder, I think the best I can come up with is: K Martin out for Prudden, JPK out for Griffen. K Mart to Prudster gives you $136,600 for upgrading, PLUS gives you the best loophole option for your Mids. Griffen's draw is unbeatable, so you get to put him in, and loophole Mitchell/Priddis/Deledio etc.... JPK is stuggling a bit, but you could also use Deledio to get there.
In the choice between plucking 2 sideways moves to players with an easy match, OR going a genuine upgrade and gaining some loophole capapability, I think the second one is better. If it was a one-off I'd say the opposite, but you are trying to win 3 games from here, not one.
Sorry it wasn't the Earth shattering leftfield approach you might have been looking for!
Good luck

Thanks Rowsus. I prefer option 2 as well. I think the mids is where I can gain the most points and had my eye on Griffen.

 

[blue dreamer]

RAMP has you scoring 2,321. Not a bad score for 20 players!
It has your 5 highest scoring players as :
Selwood J 141
Barlow 131
Swan 131
Pendlebury 128
Rockliff 128
RAMP suggests you put the (V) on Swan, and the (C) on Selwood.
Ablett is predicted to score 119.
Good luck

The Ramp captain suggestions interest me also.

Just a little more please, what is Jellwoods record @ Pattersons like.

 

[Krieks]

Hi Krieks,
good news for you, that your opponent has lost RHenderson!
I think it is risky leaving your 2nd trade, and trying to judge if you're in a strong position. It's best just to do the trade that suits your team. I'd be looking at:
Swapping Cox and McBean.
Trading Lee Down to Redpath, this gives you a great donut for loopholing, and raises $169k.
Upgrading Nicholls to Goldstein.
Moving Cloke to the bench with the (E) on him. We know he can go big, but he can let us down, too. At least this way you get to look at his score first.
Now you get Goldstein to replace the Cloke/Lee loophole score, and get Cloke as a wildcard in your Fwd line for the rest of the season.
Good luck

Thanks Rowsus!

 

[Bobbie]

Mitchell out so changing plans Rowsus. Will now need to generate more cash to upgrade him to Griffen so will be forced to trade Nicholls to Grundy. Have a feeling my season will be over by Sunday evening! Will be hard to compete with my opponent who has trades and $200K!

 

[Rowsus]

The Ramp captain suggestions interest me also.

Just a little more please, what is Jellwoods record @ Pattersons like.

Personally, I don't put a lot of faith in ground records where the player doesn't play a lot of games, say at least 8 or 10 in a 3 year period.
Having said that, counting backwards, J Selwood at Patterson:
Vs West Coast:
99 - Rnd 20, 2012 WC won 102 to 97
123 - Rnd 11, 2010 Geel won 122 to 98
106 - Rnd 11, 2009 Geel won 99 to 77
Vs Fremantle:
116 - Rnd 1, 2012 Fre won 105 to 101
110 - Rnd 3, 2010 Fre won 125 to 118
75 - Rnd 12, 2009 Geel won 94 to 75
So he has only played there 6 times in the last 5 seasons!
Overall average: 104.83
Winning games: 101.33
Losing games: 108.33
Not largely relevant, given the low number of games, but interesting to look at!

 

[Bobbie]

Hi Rowsus. Do you still think Griff is the best upgrade for Mitchell (and my team)? I can afford any mid now.

Cheers

 

[Rowsus]

Mitchell out so changing plans Rowsus. Will now need to generate more cash to upgrade him to Griffen so will be forced to trade Nicholls to Grundy. Have a feeling my season will be over by Sunday evening! Will be hard to compete with my opponent who has trades and $200K!

Given K Mart can only be used for loopholing in round 23, it might still be worth using him and JPK instead of Nicholls and Mitchell. At least you'll get loopholes the next 2 weeks, instead of just one. Just worth considering, is all I'm saying.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus. Do you still think Griff is the best upgrade for Mitchell (and my team)? I can afford any mid now.

Cheers

Yes, given his Draw, he looks the best option. Though if you're going on recent form, then Joel Selwood is the pick to have.

 

[Bobbie]

Yes, given his Draw, he looks the best option. Though if you're going on recent form, then Joel Selwood is the pick to have.

Yeah that's what's making it a hard choice!

 

[Rowsus]

Yeah that's what's making it a hard choice!

If it's any help, RAMP says Selwood will score 141 this week, and Griffen will score 117.
Given RAMP uses current form as one of it's criteria, this isn't a surprising difference. Also it means it shouldn't be used for forecasts more than 1 week ahead, but if it was used, it says in the last 3 rounds:
Selwood J: 141, 136, 145
Griffen: 117, 119, 137

 

[Maso]

RAMP has you scoring 2,321. Not a bad score for 20 players!
It has your 5 highest scoring players as :
Selwood J 141
Barlow 131
Swan 131
Pendlebury 128
Rockliff 128
RAMP suggests you put the (V) on Swan, and the (C) on Selwood.
Ablett is predicted to score 119.
Good luck

i like it thanks mate hopefully this is the selection i need to get over my best mate this week.

lol wouldnt believe it, my mate went swan vc and selwood C

 

[Rowsus]

i like it thanks mate hopefully this is the selection i need to get over my best mate this week.

lol wouldnt believe it, my mate went swan vc and selwood C

LOL, maybe he sneaks in here, too!

 

[blue dreamer]

Personally, I don't put a lot of faith in ground records where the player doesn't play a lot of games, say at least 8 or 10 in a 3 year period.
Having said that, counting backwards, J Selwood at Patterson:
Vs West Coast:
99 - Rnd 20, 2012 WC won 102 to 97
123 - Rnd 11, 2010 Geel won 122 to 98
106 - Rnd 11, 2009 Geel won 99 to 77
Vs Fremantle:
116 - Rnd 1, 2012 Fre won 105 to 101
110 - Rnd 3, 2010 Fre won 125 to 118
75 - Rnd 12, 2009 Geel won 94 to 75
So he has only played there 6 times in the last 5 seasons!
Overall average: 104.83
Winning games: 101.33
Losing games: 108.33
Not largely relevant, given the low number of games, but interesting to look at!

Thanks for the further info, just got home from being out and thought i had GAJ vc Jellwood C but find still had Pendles VC (oops).

Probably means need to go Sellwood as C just for a chance to pick up some points on my semi final opponent.

 

[PC]

A question for Guru Rowsus.

GAJ is at $600k atm, with a BE of 208 this week, and he scored 97. Say he continues current form for the rest of the season (ie a 100 avg), and finishes the season worth $500K to $550K. What do you think this will do to his starting price for next season? Anything? Everything? Doesn't matter?

Thanks an advance.

 

[Rowsus]

A question for Guru Rowsus.

GAJ is at $600k atm, with a BE of 208 this week, and he scored 97. Say he continues current form for the rest of the season (ie a 100 avg), and finishes the season worth $500K to $550K. What do you think this will do to his starting price for next season? Anything? Everything? Doesn't matter?

Thanks an advance.

His finishing price this year has no bearing on his opening price next year. For players that are not eligible for discount, due to a low game count, their opening price is purely a product of their end of season average the season before.
After yesterdays game Ablett's average is 129.05, which equates to a opening price of around $690,400.
If he scores 100 in each of the last 2 games, his average will fall to 126.29, which equates to an opening price of around $675,600.
As you can see, his late season slump is not going to save us a lot of money next season, unfortunately!

 

[PC]

His finishing price this year has no bearing on his opening price next year. For players that are not eligible for discount, due to a low game count, their opening price is purely a product of their end of season average the season before.
After yesterdays game Ablett's average is 129.05, which equates to a opening price of around $690,400.
If he scores 100 in each of the last 2 games, his average will fall to 126.29, which equates to an opening price of around $675,600.
As you can see, his late season slump is not going to save us a lot of money next season, unfortunately!

Righty, thanks

 

[Zim^zuM]

I have 2 trades and $108,900. And for now I will take the assumption that Cotchin and Hanley will play. Heppel is another player I have.ATM with these assumptions I face no donuts but Vlastuin as D6 and no ruck cover with McEvoy still doing my head in.

With Nicholls gone theres no point trading Big Ben anymore. But I can trade Nicholls and shift MceVoy to EMG. With Currie playnig second I cant loop anything.

Seems obvious that I will probably trade Heppel. For who would depend on who my second trade is which will detrmine cash.

Do I trade Nicholls for another ruck (knowing my luck McEvoy will score well against GCS and FRE due to their ruck stocks injured) or do I upgrade Priddis? I feel slighty guilty trading a playing player. Priddis has only scored 100 once in his past 5 games. Cotchin rested would make it easy lol. Does anyone believe with Nicholls, Smith, Sandilands out or in doubt will help McEvoy get competative or the same as Priddis? Lol

Nicholls to Minson means I only really afford Heppel to Duffield. Whatever I make on Minson I probably lose on Duffield lol.

Nicholls to J.Roughead means I can afford $481,500 on a DEF

Heppel to Enright means I can go Priddis to Jobe.

Heppel to Henderson means I afford Priddis to Griffen

Heppel to D.Pearce gets me Beams.

Infact if I got Heppel to Pearce I can trade T.Mitchell for Jobe and have Priddis as cover for any carnege next week or as a EMG if Cotchin is named but withdrawn.

 

[Adrenaline]

Hi Rowus

My team is going very well thanks to your help and im approaching the premlinary final this week with backline problems. I have 3 trades left and 80k in the bank. My backline is goodard, hibberd, heppell, mckenzie (gc), shaw, thurlow, clisby, gibbs. My midfield is ablett, pendels, swan, jack, kennedy, barlow, mundy, selwood, martin, hrovat. Its unlikely that heppell will play this week or the rest of the season so i need to trade him out and i was considering trading out this week mckenzie or next week kennedy as they both havent been scoring great.

I was hoping to trade heppell to either p hanley (if he plays this week) or birchall. Do you think they are both good options or is there someone better?

Also who would you trade out mckenzie or kennedy? Lately there are not a lot of consistent defenders so i was leaning towards kennedy for someone like griffen or beams.

Thanks