Thought you may have been talking about Crouch based on the contract situation but the $1M per year threw me off. Really? Not worth that.
I haven't completely ruled him out but he's not likely to make my team. After being frustrated by him last year, there's a couple of others at a similar price I would probably prefer. Better choice for DT than SC.
You’ll have to explain that one a bit mate. Where does the improvement come from? Can’t see him averaging many more possessions than he did last year.
I should preface this by saying he's far from locked but he's high on my list at that pricepoint.
I see the biggest improvement coming from continuity in his play after a year out of the game. He probably surprised a few of us last year with how many games he played so if he can back that up, with another preseason under his belt (training the house down by all reports) it should help with his touch and ability to run out quarters/games/season. Looking at last year's numbers he did drop off slightly after the bye (32 disp/111 DT/100SC pre bye and 28 disp/104 DT/96 SC post) so it could indicate he slowed down the second half of the year.
How much of a bump that continuity brings is anyone's guess but the flow on effect could lead to increased TOG and improved DE, which were both on the lower side last year or just the ability to run harder for longer.
The Crows have a new coach, which we have seen be a big factor in a team's improvement and they have one of the easiest draws so potentially win more games and get a bigger piece of the pie. Last year Crouch averaged 103sc in wins and 97sc in losses and he strikes me as a player who can put the hurt on when things are going well. Their first half of the year looks pretty good to me with 4 out of 5 games at home, then the Saints, GC, Freo, Mel, Carlton and he also has the Rd 14 bye so i can move him on if need be.
It being a contract year and him not getting a deal done could probably go 2 ways but i'm pretty sure it will drive him to have a big year to bring his price up as he heads into the middle part of his career. He turned 26 this year so he's probably looking for that long term deal to set himself up. Unfortunately i don't have any stats to back this theory up but my gut feel is that it's happened a few times over the years.
Lastly, i'm a sucker for a guy who has a badly skewed DT:SC ratio and shouldn't get tagged because he's at least getting the ball without anyone trying to stop him.... which is half the challenge. If he can pump those numbers up again with increased fitness/touch and the crows being better as a whole, i think 105+ is very achievable and 110-115 within reach.
Clearly, i'm on my own here but those are my reasons anyway. I know there's some pretty clear negatives with a pick like him but the more i look at him, the more i like him.
tl;dr versioin
- continuity
- new coach
- easy draw and start to the year
- Rd 14 bye gives me an out
- contract year
- 108 DT : 98 SC + won't get tagged = scope for improvement