Position Forward Discussion

[armesy]

I just had a look at Petracca and found some clarity in looking at the Demons start to the season

WCE-Hutchings
GWS - De boer
Freo- ?
Saints - Steele
GC - Miller

As Matthew Knicks said in his presser, if Petracca is doing that much damage in a real game, he would have placed someone on him very quickly. All those teams the Demons play early have the ability to move that genuine stopper to him. IF - he has put up decent numbers in the first 5 weeks and has coped with a bit of attention then he surely one i will look at to bring in. I cant see him hurting me early.

 

[Hondo]

I just had a look at Petracca and found some clarity in looking at the Demons start to the season

WCE-Hutchings
GWS - De boer
Freo- ?
Saints - Steele
GC - Miller

As Matthew Knicks said in his presser, if Petracca is doing that much damage in a real game, he would have placed someone on him very quickly. All those teams the Demons play early have the ability to move that genuine stopper to him. IF - he has put up decent numbers in the first 5 weeks and has coped with a bit of attention then he surely one i will look at to bring in. I cant see him hurting me early.

He probably wouldn’t be your first upgrade though. If he’s going at 95 he will up around $490k which is still affordable but you lose that starting discount. May not matter too much it’s whether you have a compromise in your starting team, maybe it forced you to skip an expensive rookie.

We know the full priced options will drop because that’s the nature of the magic number dropping so if you pay $50k more for trac and others get your alternative cheaper then it might be $100k you end up behind.

I reckon these value picks are better to start if you think he could coming in later anyway because starting squad is the easiest time to optimise any spare cash.

 

[armesy]

He probably wouldn’t be your first upgrade though. If he’s going at 95 he will up around $490k which is still affordable but you lose that starting discount. May not matter too much it’s whether you have a compromise in your starting team, maybe it forced you to skip an expensive rookie.

We know the full priced options will drop because that’s the nature of the magic number dropping so if you pay $50k more for trac and others get your alternative cheaper then it might be $100k you end up behind.

I reckon these value picks are better to start if you think he could coming in later anyway because starting squad is the easiest time to optimise any spare cash.

In hindsight, if i knew he was going to average 95 then of course its a no brainer and its better to start with him. But - Ill happily avoid the risk of starting him and pay and extra $50k. 100k behind sounds like a lot but its not much over the whole season. Not even the value of 1 trade.

There are only 8 forwards that are more than 50k more expensive than Petracca. I'm probably only looking to start one of them. You are also counting on the fact that the one you want drops 50k.

 

[Grundogging]

I just had a look at Petracca and found some clarity in looking at the Demons start to the season

WCE-Hutchings
GWS - De boer
Freo- ?
Saints - Steele
GC - Miller

As Matthew Knicks said in his presser, if Petracca is doing that much damage in a real game, he would have placed someone on him very quickly. All those teams the Demons play early have the ability to move that genuine stopper to him. IF - he has put up decent numbers in the first 5 weeks and has coped with a bit of attention then he surely one i will look at to bring in. I cant see him hurting me early.

If that power, speed and fitness we saw in the first Marsh cup game is real then Petracca has the sort of tag breaking game that might mitigate that risk, if he can get the above-the-shoulders stuff right under pressure (similar to a Dangerfield or a Pendlebury).

He also has a few hard-bodied team mates in the midfield which would go some way to helping shake a tag at the stoppages and being on the the end of work coming from the best tap ruckman in the game doesn't hurt his chances either.

Everything is set up for him to succeed if he is able - just a question of whether he can keep it up.

 

[PC]

If that power, speed and fitness we saw in the first Marsh cup game is real then Petracca has the sort of tag breaking game that might mitigate that risk, if he can get the above-the-shoulders stuff right under pressure (similar to a Dangerfield or a Pendlebury).

He also has a few hard-bodied team mates in the midfield which would go some way to helping shake a tag at the stoppages and being on the the end of work coming from the best tap ruckman in the game doesn't hurt his chances either.

Everything is set up for him to succeed if he is able - just a question of whether he can keep it up.

Yep. He is either the real deal with the coach giving him the role change because he is or he is fools gold and will be a failed pick.

Seems like I am stating the obvious but if the coaches don't start him in the mids then he ain't it. Marsh 2 will tell us plenty.

Melb needs to find the game breaking mid to make full use of Gawn while they have Gawn at his peak.

 

[Connoisseur]

Hey @Connoisseur have you run your magic comb over Petracca yet? If not, would be greatly appreciated if you have the time.

I’m trying to decide whether my remaining 60k is better spent on upgrading Lynch or upgrading to a higher priced rookie. I was burnt by Trac in 18 (?) so I’m a little bit hesitant. Thanks again.

Not yet and will happily do so.

Anything in particular? (eg CP, TOG%)

 

[Eagling]

You don't need to try too hard to find them. If Trac goes big again in the next game then he will be at 30+% ownership and that's as much research as you need to do isn't it? Switch the brain off and look to other areas of your team.

If you ignore value in the forwards I feel you will be behind from the get go. Others will have equal points because their value picks will match or better your gun/rookie but meanwhile they will might have avoided a couple of terrible FWD rookie cash cows that you have.

I think Whitfield and Dusty can be picked up as upgrades at cheaper than their starting prices, if that is how someone has to go.

Not really. People are reactive. How many people traded Bont in after a pre-season game?

Terrible rookies are bad, but I can always hide them on my bench until they come good/trade them out.

I'll probably be behind from the start, but if my strategy works, I'll be reeling the failed midpricer teams in, and then I'll be competing with the successful midpricer picks.

 

[BigRuss]

Not yet and will happily do so.

Anything in particular? (eg CP, TOG%)

Yeah mate whatever you’ve got on hand I’m not too worried, would just be nice to see if there is any sort of patterns. Thanks again.

 

[Hondo]

Not really. People are reactive. How many people traded Bont in after a pre-season game?

Terrible rookies are bad, but I can always hide them on my bench until they come good/trade them out.

I'll probably be behind from the start, but if my strategy works, I'll be reeling the failed midpricer teams in, and then I'll be competing with the successful midpricer picks.

I remember avoiding Danger and Sidebottom in 2012 despite their huge ownerships for the exact same reasons you’ve said here. I got stuck in a no mid pricer mindset and thought I knew better than the “masses”.

Not only did I skip them but the more expensive alternatives forced about 3 crucial rookie compromises and I was cooked before I’d even started.

I’m not trying to scare you into picking Trac but I’ve got this echo from 8 years ago.

Don’t get too stubborn if he gets mass popular by R1.

 

[NT.Thunder]

I remember avoiding Danger and Sidebottom in 2012 despite their huge ownerships for the exact same reasons you’ve said here. I got stuck in a no mid pricer mindset and thought I knew better than the “masses”.

Not only did I skip them but the more expensive alternatives forced about 3 crucial rookie compromises and I was cooked before I’d even started.

I’m not trying to scare you into picking Trac but I’ve got this echo from 8 years ago.

Don’t get too stubborn if he gets mass popular by R1.

You can live with out them though, depending on just how big of a jump they make.

Last year I didn't start either of Smith or Williams and never had either of them in my side all year and picked up a reasonable ranking.

I did go early on lower ownership players (at the time) that broke out like Marshall and Houli which possibly counterbalanced my losses on Zac Williams for sure and to a lesser extent Smith. Crisp was the one for me I had from the start that I never got rid of yet failed to reach any heights.

 

[Merv Neagle]

Guys seeking help or stats on this strategy for draft supercoach.
Brisbane and West coast have alternative home games. So think about drafting J Kennedy and C Cameron late then play the one who is playing at home and park the other on the pine. Your feedback is much appreciated

 

[Connoisseur]

Yeah mate whatever you’ve got on hand I’m not too worried, would just be nice to see if there is any sort of patterns. Thanks again.

C Petracca:







Wins Avg: 82.54 from 37 (12/37 below 80, 30/37 below 100, 2/37 120+)
2016: 75.57 from 7
2017: 83.08 from 12
2018: 83.46 from 13
2019: 88.6 from 5

Losses Avg: 75.91 from 45 (26/45 below 80, 40/45 below 100, 0/45 120+)
2016: 70.7 from 10
2017: 73.7 from 10
2018: 78.38 from 8
2019: 79.12 from 17

Career disposals avg: 18.90 from 82
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 19: 87.53 from 47 (11/47 below 80, 36/47 below 100, 2/47 120+)
SC avg when disposals below 19: 67.31 from 35 (27/35 below 80, 34/35 below 100, 0/35 120+)

Only 9 times in his career that he has managed 24 or more disposals.
24+: 101.11 from 9 (0/9 below 80, 5/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)
1 match from his previous 82 with more than 25 disposals (RD16 2018- 29D- 138 SC)

Career contested possessions avg: 9.80 from 82
SC avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 10: 85.49 from 39 (11/39 below 80, 30/39 below 100, 2/39 120+)
SC avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 10: 72.93 from 43 (27/40 below 80, 40/43 below 100, 0/43 120+)

 

[BigRuss]

C Petracca:

View attachment 15918

View attachment 15919

View attachment 15920

Wins Avg: 82.54 from 37 (12/37 below 80, 30/37 below 100, 2/37 120+)
2016: 75.57 from 7
2017: 83.08 from 12
2018: 83.46 from 13
2019: 88.6 from 5

Losses Avg: 75.91 from 45 (26/45 below 80, 40/45 below 100, 0/45 120+)
2016: 70.7 from 10
2017: 73.7 from 10
2018: 78.38 from 8
2019: 79.12 from 17

Career disposals avg: 18.90 from 82
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 19: 87.53 from 47 (11/47 below 80, 36/47 below 100, 2/47 120+)
SC avg when disposals below 19: 67.31 from 35 (27/35 below 80, 34/35 below 100, 0/35 120+)

Only 9 times in his career that he has managed 24 or more disposals.
24+: 101.11 from 9 (0/9 below 80, 5/9 below 100, 2/9 120+)
1 match from his previous 82 with more than 25 disposals (RD16 2018- 29D- 138 SC)

Career contested possessions avg: 9.80 from 82
SC avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 10: 85.49 from 39 (11/39 below 80, 30/39 below 100, 2/39 120+)
SC avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 10: 72.93 from 43 (27/40 below 80, 40/43 below 100, 0/43 120+)

Geez it doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence when you see the numbers laid bare like that. He needs to make such huge improvement to get that average up to the 95+ required. I suppose the question is if he can push his disposal average to 25.

How do you feel about him out of curiosity?

 

[Stormzy]

Do you reckon we can change the poll to include parish and petracca instead of j.martin and lipinski

 

[Rockydunlop]

I don’t think I even saw an opposition player actually man up on Petracca. Wait and see next game but he’s not in my side at the moment. He doesn’t really have to do much now that he has his new contract!

 

[Diabolical]

@Connoisseur if I include Petracca, it will be at the expense of Parish. Could you please do a summary of Parish like Petracca above so that I can compare. (Apologies if you have already done it - I had better go back and check!)

 

[aps1]

Geez it doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence when you see the numbers laid bare like that. He needs to make such huge improvement to get that average up to the 95+ required. I suppose the question is if he can push his disposal average to 25.

How do you feel about him out of curiosity?

Just to put that into perspective, Danger went from 17 to 27 disposals in his breakout year.

Based on Petracca being classfied as a foward only, there is certainly room to push 25+ disposals if given the role.

 

[THCLT]

Do you reckon we can change the poll to include parish and petracca instead of j.martin and lipinski

I will reset the poll at the end of this week's matches and after we've seen every teams in the Marsh to include player's of more relevance or 'flavours of the week'.

 

[BigRuss]

Just to put that into perspective, Danger went from 17 to 27 disposals in his breakout year.

Based on Petracca being classfied as a foward only, there is certainly room to push 25+ disposals if given the role.

I think he certainly has the talent to do it and these are the types of pick you need to chase year to year. He really does tick a lot of boxes. Age, games played, high draft pick, rarely misses a game, team presumably on the up and he certainly passed the all important eye test on the weekend.

The question I keep coming back to is apart from the 60k saved, what does he offer that a Heeney type doesnt? You can count Heeney as a banker IMO and I’m not sure the same can be said with Petracca.

 

[THCLT]

Geez it doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence when you see the numbers laid bare like that. He needs to make such huge improvement to get that average up to the 95+ required. I suppose the question is if he can push his disposal average to 25.

How do you feel about him out of curiosity?

Just to put that into perspective, Danger went from 17 to 27 disposals in his breakout year.

Based on Petracca being classfied as a foward only, there is certainly room to push 25+ disposals if given the role.

We've seen Dunkley & Worpel do it so it's not beyond him or impossible IF he maintains that midfield role.

Dunkley
2017 - 12 disposals - 60 SC
2018 - 22 disposals - 95 SC
2019 - 28 disposals - 117 SC

Worpel
2018 - 18 disposals - 73 SC
2019 - 27 disposals - 97 SC