Position Forward Discussion

Is a fit and firing buddy at $394k worth the punt?

  • Yes

    Votes: 18 33.3%
  • No

    Votes: 36 66.7%

  • Total voters
    54

Connoisseur

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#11
From: https://supercoachscores.com/threads/2020-super-early-player-discussions.4162/page-27

J Steven:
2009: 66 from 1
2010: 62.5 from 8
2011: 78.2 from 20
2012: 89.86 from 21
2013: 109.95 from 22
2014: 84.82 from 17
2015: 104.27 from 22
2016: 103.05 from 22
2017: 90.7 from 20
2018: 94.59 from 22
2019: 74 from 7

Avg between 2015 to 2018: 98.33 from 86

2019-
Only the 2nd season since 2011 that Steven has managed less than 20 matches
Lowest disposals avg since 2010 and 2nd time below 20 from 2011-2019 (19)
Career low tackle avg (3.3)
Lowest contested possession avg since 2011 (8.4)
Career low disposal efficiency (64.7%)
Career low Time on Ground (70%) and 1st season below 75% TOG since 2010.

J Steven:
Wins Avg since 2012: 107.65 from 52 (7/52 below 80, 25/52 below 100, 16/52 120+)
2012: 98.64 from 11 (1/11 below 80, 6/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)
2013: 129.6 from 5 (1/5 below 100, 3/5 120+)
2014: 82 from 1
2015: 102.17 from 6 (4/6 below 100, 2/6 120+)
2016: 118.67 from 12 (3/12 below 80, 4/12 below 100, 6/12 120+)
2017: 104.44 from 9 (1/9 below 80, 4/9 below 100, 2/5 120+)
2018: 119.5 from 4 (1/4 below 100, 2/4 120+)
2019: 82 from 4 (2/4 below 80, 4/4 below 100)

Losses Avg since 2012: 89.96 from 99 (26/99 below 80, 64/99 below 100, 6/99 120+)
2012: 80.2 from 10 (4/10 below 80, 8/10 below 100)
2013: 104.18 from 17 (3/17 below 80, 8/17 below 100, 3/17 120+)
2014: 85 from 16 (6/16 below 80, 11/16 below 100, 1/16 120+)
2015: 105.6 from 15 (1/15 below 80, 5/15 below 100, 1/15 120+)
2016: 84.3 from 10 (4/10 below 80, 7/10 below 100)
2017: 79.45 from 11 (6/11 below 80, 11/11 below 100)
2018: 87.18 from 17 (11/17 below 100, 1/17 120+)
2019: 63.33 from 3 (2/3 below 80, 3/3 below 100)
 

Connoisseur

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#12
H Greenwood:



Career SC Avg: 85.42 from 48 (18/48 below 80, 36/48 below 100, 2/48 120+)
2017 SC Avg: 84.58 from 12
2018 SC Avg: 85.95 from 22
2019 SC Avg: 85.29 from 14

Career Tackles Avg: 6.58
SC avg when tackles equal/exceed 7: 95.04 from 24 (low of 70 and a high of 127, 4/24 below 80, 16/24 below 100, 1/24 120+)
SC avg when tackles below 7: 75.79 from 24 (low of 45 and a high of 133, 14/24 below 80, 20/24 below 100, 1/24 120+)

Career Contested Possessions Avg: 11.38
SC avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 12: 99.62 from 21 (low of 68 and a high of 133, 2/21 below 80, 12/21 below 100, 2/21 120+)
SC avg when contested possessions below 12: 74.37 from 27 (low of 45 and a high of 104, 14/24 below 80, 24/27 below 100, 0/27 120+)

Career TOG Avg: 71.52%
SC avg when TOG equals/exceeds 72%: 91.16 from 25 (low of 52 and a high of 133, 5/25 below 80, 19/25 below 100, 1/25 120+)
SC avg when TOG below 72%: 79.17 from 23 (low of 45 and a high of 127, 13/23 below 80, 17/23 below 100, 1/23 120+)
 
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#13
^ The low TOG% backs up what people have said in regards to Greenwood not having a massive tank which probably adds to the argument that he will again get a fwd/mid role at CGS rather than be given a permanent midfield gig.

Still a watch in preseason games for mine, but less interested now as it's unlikely that a 27yo is suddenly going to improve his endurance/stamina.
 
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#14
^ The low TOG% backs up what people have said in regards to Greenwood not having a massive tank which probably adds to the argument that he will again get a fwd/mid role at CGS rather than be given a permanent midfield gig.

Still a watch in preseason games for mine, but less interested now as it's unlikely that a 27yo is suddenly going to improve his endurance/stamina.
I wonder if coming into the AFL later than most though , he still has the "opportunity" to develop that engine though.

Probably need to find out what his specific training loads were at the Crows.

He is only entering his 4th/5th preseason so training from basketball to AFL may take some time.

With Steven & Smith @ $ 361 k & $ 335 k though will probably take the punt on them alongside 2 of Whitfield/Martin/Heeney.

Tom J Lynch @ $ 388 as well , so many options for the Forward line this year.
 
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#15
I wonder if coming into the AFL later than most though , he still has the "opportunity" to develop that engine though.

Probably need to find out what his specific training loads were at the Crows.

He is only entering his 4th/5th preseason so training from basketball to AFL may take some time.

With Steven & Smith @ $ 361 k & $ 335 k though will probably take the punt on them alongside 2 of Whitfield/Martin/Heeney.

Tom J Lynch @ $ 388 as well , so many options for the Forward line this year.

I am liking T.Mac at the same price as Lynch.
Melbourne have WC & GWS first up but after that it opens right up with, round 3 Freo, St K, GC, Rich, Ess, Port, Adel.
If Melbourne improve I think Mcdonald has a chance to spike during that 7 game stretch.

It all rides on Melbourne winning a large chuck of that stretch though which I have no confidence in at the moment lol, Lynch been in the better team is probably the safer bet of the two but I am drawn towards T.Mac if he has a good preseason and Melbourne look better than last year.
 
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#16
I am liking T.Mac at the same price as Lynch.
Melbourne have WC & GWS first up but after that it opens right up with, round 3 Freo, St K, GC, Rich, Ess, Port, Adel.
If Melbourne improve I think Mcdonald has a chance to spike during that 7 game stretch.

It all rides on Melbourne winning a large chuck of that stretch though which I have no confidence in at the moment lol, Lynch being in the better team is probably the safer bet of the two but I am drawn towards T.Mac if he has a good preseason and Melbourne look better than last year.
Too busy with Big Bash at the moment and too early to be looking at SC but a brief look I had today 😀 Smith , Steven & Lynch all look tempting.

Buddy & Tom Tom are of interest again.

Can they all go 90+ though and be good enough for the whole season.

I guess Whitfield , Martin & Heeney would appear the favoured Top 3 at the moment.

Not sure how many of the available players to select as F next season averaged 90+ this season though from memory.

Cameron (again) , Cavarra (again) , King & Rankine could be viable rookies and a Adelaide guy (not McAdam) if he is still a forward.

Doedee , Roberton & Hill could pose up some interesting combos down back.

Grundy & Gawn locked in (not making that mistake again)

Wondering if Rowell , Anderson & Pickett if they can Ave 75+ if a extra rookie mid onfield is viable.

Will start looking seriously in January.
 
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#17
Too busy with Big Bash at the moment and too early to be looking at SC but a brief look I had today 😀 Smith , Steven & Lynch all look tempting.

Buddy & Tom Tom are of interest again.

Can they all go 90+ though and be good enough for the whole season.

I guess Whitfield , Martin & Heeney would appear the favoured Top 3 at the moment.

Not sure how many of the available players to select as F next season averaged 90+ this season though from memory.

Cameron (again) , Cavarra (again) , King & Rankine could be viable rookies and a Adelaide guy (not McAdam) if he is still a forward.

Doedee , Roberton & Hill could pose up some interesting combos down back.

Grundy & Gawn locked in (not making that mistake again)

Wondering if Rowell , Anderson & Pickett if they can Ave 75+ if a extra rookie mid onfield is viable.

Will start looking seriously in January.

Yep, forwards definitely where the value appears thus far.

I think as you pointed out, the top 3 are pretty clear cut then throw a blanket over a host of players like J.Cameron, Greene, Walters, Gray ect ect that could all average 90-100, but any of Buddy, Lynch, T.mac, Smith, Steven could average 90+ also as all have done it before, gonna be tricky getting on the right horse(s) without over committing in the forward line and locking out spots for the inevitable bolters.
 
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#18
Yep, forwards definitely where the value appears thus far.

I think as you pointed out, the top 3 are pretty clear cut then throw a blanket over a host of players like J.Cameron, Greene, Walters, Gray ect ect that could all average 90-100, but any of Buddy, Lynch, T.mac, Smith, Steven could average 90+ also as all have done it before, gonna be tricky getting on the right horse(s) without over committing in the forward line and locking out spots for the inevitable bolters.
My problem would be picking 3 of them and they all get stuck in that 85-92 range and I end up with 3 F6's.

I always am too frightened to trade them out as they are scoring ok'ish.

It's a good point about over committing too much on one line too early from the start maybe 2-1-5 is the way to go if the rookies are viable.
 

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#19
L Franklin:
Wins Avg since 2007 (seasons averaging 90+): 108.74 from 139 (53/139 below 100, 47/139 120+)
2007: 95.58 from 12
2008: 115.29 from 17
2010: 113.44 from 9
2011: 119.13 from 15
2012: 127.08 from 12
2013: 96.38 from 16
2014: 108.4 from 15
2016: 95.76 from 14
2017: 104.14 from 14
2018: 118.42 from 12

Losses Avg since 2007 (seasons averaging 90+): 81.87 from 54 (39/54 below 100, 5/54 120+)
2007: 85 from 8
2008: 78.8 from 5
2010: 102.57 from 7
2011: 79.5 from 4
2012: 80.75 from 4
2013: 58.67 from 3
2014: 68.25 from 4
2016: 90.6 from 5
2017: 88.13 from 8
2018: 63.5 from 6

2019 Wins Avg: 87 from 4
2019 Losses Avg: 63 from 6

1577278460126.png





In 2019 L Franklin:
Recorded his lowest disposals avg since 2006 and only the 2nd time below 15 disposals since 2007 (other occurrence was 2015).
Recorded less than 6 marks a game after recording 6.7, 6.6 and 6.0 in the previous 3 seasons.
Lowest goals avg since 2006 and only the 3rd time since 2007, that he has averaged less than 3 goals a game.
Career low tackles avg
Career low score involvements avg but finished 9th across the AFL in that category per game in 2019
 

Connoisseur

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#20
L Franklin:
Wins Avg since 2007 (seasons averaging 90+): 108.74 from 139 (53/139 below 100, 47/139 120+)
2007: 95.58 from 12
2008: 115.29 from 17
2010: 113.44 from 9
2011: 119.13 from 15
2012: 127.08 from 12
2013: 96.38 from 16
2014: 108.4 from 15
2016: 95.76 from 14
2017: 104.14 from 14
2018: 118.42 from 12

Losses Avg since 2007 (seasons averaging 90+): 81.87 from 54 (39/54 below 100, 5/54 120+)
2007: 85 from 8
2008: 78.8 from 5
2010: 102.57 from 7
2011: 79.5 from 4
2012: 80.75 from 4
2013: 58.67 from 3
2014: 68.25 from 4
2016: 90.6 from 5
2017: 88.13 from 8
2018: 63.5 from 6

2019 Wins Avg: 87 from 4
2019 Losses Avg: 63 from 6

View attachment 13776





In 2019 L Franklin:
Recorded his lowest disposals avg since 2006 and only the 2nd time below 15 disposals since 2007 (other occurrence was 2015).
Recorded less than 6 marks a game after recording 6.7, 6.6 and 6.0 in the previous 3 seasons.
Lowest goals avg since 2006 and only the 3rd time since 2007, that he has averaged less than 3 goals a game.
Career low tackles avg
Career low score involvements avg but finished 9th across the AFL in that category per game in 2019
Happily taking suggestions/requests for players in any position conducting similar research as listed above.
 
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