Position Forward Discussion

[BigRuss]

People considering Buddy might be semi-cooked? In a less than good side as well...

Yep, seems a bit odd to me when you can get Lynch for basically the same price.

 

[Connoisseur]

Yep, seems a bit odd to me when you can get Lynch for basically the same price.

T Lynch:





2019 Pre Bye Avg: 57.62 from 13 (12/13 below 80, 12/13 below 100)
2019 Post Bye Avg: 91.78 from 9 (3/9 below 80, 5/9 below 100, 1/9 120+)
2019 Wins Avg: 78.25 from 16 (9/16 below 80, 11/16 below 100, 1/16 120+)
2019 Losses Avg: 53.83 from 6 (6/6 below 100)
2019 Avg with J Riewoldt: 85.5 from 10 (5/10 below 80, 6/10 below 100, 1/10 120+)
2019 Avg without J Riewoldt: 60 from 12 (10/12 below 80, 11/12 below 100)

2019:
Career low disposals avg (1st time below 11)
Career low disposal efficiency (1st time below 60%)
2nd highest goal avg (highest was 3.0 in 2016)

 

[bomberboy]

I've got a sneaky eye on Darcy Parish this preseason. In 2 games last year (one Shiel missed) he went back to back 130+'s while getting 10 & 9 clearances with his 31 odd touches. He has played 75 games now and was a high draft pick. I know the Bombers have gotten Hibberd in to help protect Merrett and Shiel more in the midfield but it will be interesting to see who gets increased stoppage time out of McGrath & Parish, maybe our local Bomber guru's have some insight?

Parish is better than non-Bombers fans think and a bit worse than Bombers fans think. I reckon he's right in the sweet spot to break out, but I think you have to consider Essendon's situation at-large - it'll be a year of adjustment as Rutten implements his new game plan while Worsfold transitions out.

 

[Tex]

Top KPPs are rare , Buddy at his prime was a good pick. Now it's a no for me.

 

[Spots]

Top KPPs are rare , Buddy at his prime was a good pick. Now it's a no for me.

Would be nice to see him switch to a classic Richo role, roaming the wings with abandon... is there anyone else can take the FF role at Swans to free him up?

 

[pizza safety]

What do people think Steven will average if he’s fit and playing? His recent averages in 2017 and 2018 suggest he’s a low 90’s avg player playing in the midfield but if he plays more time forward at Geelong than he did in those seasons, which seems inevitable, won’t a fit Steven be averaging in the 80’s?

I know he might be in a better mental state now than he was in 2017 and 2018 but it’s worth noting that if he’s up to speed and playing 35-50% of time forward his expectations need to be scaled back compared to previous seasons.

 

[Tex]

What do people think Steven will average if he’s fit and playing? His recent averages in 2017 and 2018 suggest he’s a low 90’s avg player playing in the midfield but if he plays more time forward at Geelong than he did in those seasons, which seems inevitable, won’t a fit Steven be averaging in the 80’s?

I know he might be in a better mental state now than he was in 2017 and 2018 but it’s worth noting that if he’s up to speed and playing 35-50% of time forward his expectations need to be scaled back compared to previous seasons.

Thinking Steven will pick up Kelly minutes .
and Jelly will have more fwd time imo

 

[pizza safety]

Thinking Steven will pick up Kelly minutes .
and Jelly will have more fwd time imo

Interesting I feel like it might make Dangerfield play more mid and Duncan more inside mid and they also have a few young guys who could get more mid time so I’m not sure.

If he’s playing close to 80% midfield it shouldn’t affect him too much but How much mid time did he use to play at St Kilda before this year? I’d guess it was over 85%

 

[bomberboy]

Interesting I feel like it might make Dangerfield play more mid and Duncan more inside mid and they also have a few young guys who could get more mid time so I’m not sure.

If he’s playing close to 80% midfield it shouldn’t affect him too much but How much mid time did he use to play at St Kilda before this year? I’d guess it was over 85%

Steven does really, really well when the Saints win. I assume he's going to be a much better player playing in a winning team. I expect an average of 100-105.

 

[pizza safety]

Steven does really, really well when the Saints win. I assume he's going to be a much better player playing in a winning team. I expect an average of 100-105.

But he was the main man in the saints midfield and now has a few other teammates taking points off him and he’s about to turn 30. The last time he averaged over 100 was 2016. I’d be pretty surprised if he averaged 100-105 even with a full time mid role to be honest. I think if he’s playing pure mid in preseason you pick him thinking he goes between 90-100, which I might do myself.

 

[Darkie]

From: https://supercoachscores.com/threads/2020-super-early-player-discussions.4162/page-27

J Steven:
2009: 66 from 1
2010: 62.5 from 8
2011: 78.2 from 20
2012: 89.86 from 21
2013: 109.95 from 22
2014: 84.82 from 17
2015: 104.27 from 22
2016: 103.05 from 22
2017: 90.7 from 20
2018: 94.59 from 22
2019: 74 from 7

Avg between 2015 to 2018: 98.33 from 86

2019-
Only the 2nd season since 2011 that Steven has managed less than 20 matches
Lowest disposals avg since 2010 and 2nd time below 20 from 2011-2019 (19)
Career low tackle avg (3.3)
Lowest contested possession avg since 2011 (8.4)
Career low disposal efficiency (64.7%)
Career low Time on Ground (70%) and 1st season below 75% TOG since 2010.

J Steven:
Wins Avg since 2012: 107.65 from 52 (7/52 below 80, 25/52 below 100, 16/52 120+)
2012: 98.64 from 11 (1/11 below 80, 6/11 below 100, 1/11 120+)
2013: 129.6 from 5 (1/5 below 100, 3/5 120+)
2014: 82 from 1
2015: 102.17 from 6 (4/6 below 100, 2/6 120+)
2016: 118.67 from 12 (3/12 below 80, 4/12 below 100, 6/12 120+)
2017: 104.44 from 9 (1/9 below 80, 4/9 below 100, 2/5 120+)
2018: 119.5 from 4 (1/4 below 100, 2/4 120+)
2019: 82 from 4 (2/4 below 80, 4/4 below 100)

Losses Avg since 2012: 89.96 from 99 (26/99 below 80, 64/99 below 100, 6/99 120+)
2012: 80.2 from 10 (4/10 below 80, 8/10 below 100)
2013: 104.18 from 17 (3/17 below 80, 8/17 below 100, 3/17 120+)
2014: 85 from 16 (6/16 below 80, 11/16 below 100, 1/16 120+)
2015: 105.6 from 15 (1/15 below 80, 5/15 below 100, 1/15 120+)
2016: 84.3 from 10 (4/10 below 80, 7/10 below 100)
2017: 79.45 from 11 (6/11 below 80, 11/11 below 100)
2018: 87.18 from 17 (11/17 below 100, 1/17 120+)
2019: 63.33 from 3 (2/3 below 80, 3/3 below 100)

Worth a bump!

 

[pizza safety]

Steven does really, really well when the Saints win. I assume he's going to be a much better player playing in a winning team. I expect an average of 100-105.

Also was Steven playing well what led to the Saints to win games as he seemed to spark their midfield with moments of genuine X factor or was it the other way around ? He struck me more as a catalyst than a downhill skier, but there probably is a bit of something in your point either way.

 

[pizza safety]

Worth a bump!

There are definitely averages in there that make him a worthwhile underpriced selection. My main question is do the cats wants him to play over 65% midfield and will he be fit enough by early next year to be playing that much midfield time? He has said he’s coming from a long way back so it will be interesting to see where he’s at come round one.

At the moment Tom Lynch from Richmond is my man at F3, he averaged 99 in his last 10 games including finals after finally getting fit following PCL surgery. He never really had a shot at being a consistent 95+ avg player as a key forward at Gold Coast and struggled with injuries in 2017 and 2018. He’s had a full preseason so far too, which should help.

If Steven looks good in preseason and his role looks set up in the midfield I prefer him as his scores will be more consistent and Key Forwards aren’t the most trustworthy of players.

 

[Darkie]

There are definitely averages in there that make him a worthwhile underpriced selection. My main question is do the cats wants him to play over 65% midfield and will he be fit enough by early next year to be playing that much midfield time? He has said he’s coming from a long way back so it will be interesting to see where he’s at come round one.

At the moment Tom Lynch from Richmond is my man at F3, he averaged 99 in his last 10 games including finals after finally getting fit following PCL surgery. He never really had a shot at being a consistent 95+ avg player as a key forward at Gold Coast and struggled with injuries in 2017 and 2018. He’s had a full preseason so far too, which should help.

If Steven looks good in preseason and his role looks set up in the midfield I prefer him as his scores will be more consistent and Key Forwards aren’t the most trustworthy of players.

They're good questions and ones that are worth thinking about. He's probably just been slotted in by quite a few of us. Geelong have too many mids for me to be keen on any MID only plyers except Danger, with Menegola probably also wanting some more time in there. Steve's FWD eligibility and price open things up a fair bit, but his pre season and role are probably key.

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

People considering Buddy might be semi-cooked? In a less than good side as well...

The guy had an injury riddled season last year.

Before that he has played 18-22-22 games going backwards from 2018 for averages of 100-98-94.
I usually require more than one bad year affected by injuries to class a guy as cooked.

As long as Buddy isn't stuck playing deep forward he starts for me.

 

[pizza safety]

They're good questions and ones that are worth thinking about. He's probably just been slotted in by quite a few of us. Geelong have too many mids for me to be keen on any MID only plyers except Danger, with Menegola probably also wanting some more time in there. Steve's FWD eligibility and price open things up a fair bit, but his pre season and role are probably key.

He can definitely be an awesome pick but I guess I’m just tentative on putting him in at the moment because there are a few hurdles for him to get over before he is a good pick.

Id like to actually pick him because he is at a very nice price and has a good bye.

 

[pizza safety]

The guy had an injury riddled season last year.

Before that he has played 18-22-22 games going backwards from 2018 for averages of 100-98-94.
I usually require more than one bad year affected by injuries to class a guy as cooked.

As long as Buddy isn't stuck playing deep forward he starts for me.

He was cooked beneath the surface in 2018 but managed to keep playing without training at all, allegedly at least (he was probably swimming all week). He got turf toe in Round 1 of 2018 at Perth Stadium then had a few other injury issues.

Its two years where his body has been a bit dodgy combined with his age that puts me off but yes If he’s fit next year and is still his old self he could be a steal.

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

He was cooked beneath the surface in 2018 but managed to keep playing without training at all, allegedly at least (he was probably swimming all week). He got turf toe in Round 1 of 2018 at Perth Stadium then had a few other injury issues. Its two years where his body has been a bit dodgy combined with his age that puts me off but yes If he’s fit next year and is still his old self he could be a steal.

So with turf toe, no real training and other niggles he put in an 18 game season at 100 average as a forward?

Sign me up in 2020!

 

[pizza safety]

So with turf toe, no real training and other niggles he put in an 18 game season at 100 average as a forward?

Sign me up in 2020!

Haha yes it was quite impressive and I monitored him closely as he was in my team at the time (but then he missed my GF)


https://www.sen.com.au/news/2018/07/27/longmires-stunning-franklin-training-revelation/

 

[pizza safety]

Haha yes it was quite impressive and I monitored him closely as he was in my team at the time (but then he missed my GF)


https://www.sen.com.au/news/2018/07/27/longmires-stunning-franklin-training-revelation/

That turf toe injury should not be an indication that he’s old and broken though as it’s an impact injury that heals with time and I don’t think has anything to do with age. It highlights that Buddy is athletic and heavy and was landing on hard ground for 120 mins.

Edit: it was actually a heel injury, not turf toe