Position Midfielder Discussion

[pizza safety]

There's a phrase which I've picked up over the years (through my vast research) which I've seldom used but get a chance to do so here, it's coined 'watcher's advantage'. Stats and scores alone does not paint the full picture, watching players of interest in games provides you with a much greater insight into their numbers which ultimately helps you to differentiate whether something is sustainable or not.

I totally concur with you in that when I deliberate on Dunkley, it's only the games where I know he was playing midfield that counts. He has had 2 sustained run at it over the past 2 seasons, so hopefully the coaching sta*** now know where best to utilize this asset of theirs. Signs during the 1st Marsh game was exactly what I wanted to see.

To me given that he averaged 128 over the last 16 games after he got moved to the midfield, if that stretch went another 6 games you'd think he would have put up at least 125 for the equivalent of a full season. He's priced at 116.

I know there's a potential trap in looking at the back end of a season and picking a high priced premium player whose best season is currently an outlier (Billings is a prime example) but having watched him I cannot see him averaging below 110 and I think his upside is at 130 and beyond.

 

[THCLT]

To me given that he averaged 128 over the last 16 games after he got moved to the midfield, if that stretch went another 6 games you'd think he would have put up at least 125 for the equivalent of a full season. He's priced at 116.

I know there's a potential trap in looking at the back end of a season and picking a high priced premium player whose best season is currently an outlier (Billings is a prime example) but having watched him I cannot see him averaging below 110 and I think his upside is at 130 and beyond.

He also went 6/127 to finish 2017 in a similar role so we know he can sustain it. Macrae (128) and Bont (112) over that stretch so another sign that he's not taking away from the other 2 bulls and doing it off his own bat. In those 2 stretch combined, he went 10/115 in losses so that's another positive.

He's the youngest at 23yo of the 10 available MID premiums priced at $600K+ and my first choice as I feel he has the most upside of the lot.

 

[Bomber18]

He also went 6/127 to finish 2017 in a similar role so we know he can sustain it. Macrae (128) and Bont (112) over that stretch so another sign that he's not taking away from the other 2 bulls and doing it off his own bat. In those 2 stretch combined, he went 10/115 in losses so that's another positive.

He's the youngest at 23yo of the 10 available MID premiums priced at $600K+ and my first choice as I feel he has the most upside of the lot.

Well if what you are suggesting is that he’ll average 120+ this season, he’ll be the first since Ablett to initially breakout +20ppg to 110+ and then to follow it up to breakout immediately again to 120+ ppg.

For the most similar comparison I can think of, Beams scored 123 from 21 games as an uncanny third fiddle to Swan and Pendles in 2012 (with a 137 avg from R9 that year and with 5 scores above 150 in that stretch). Best season after 2012 in his career was 115 from 19 games and he only scored above 150 once again.

The history is against him and I hate starting “the exception” type picks. It’s just not as easy as it sounds to score above 115-120+ in SC.

 

[THCLT]

Well if what you are suggesting is that he’ll average 120+ this season, he’ll be the first since Ablett to initially breakout +20ppg to 110+ and then to follow it up to breakout immediately again to 120+ ppg.

For the most similar comparison I can think of, Beams scored 123 from 21 games as an uncanny third fiddle to Swan and Pendles in 2012 (with a 137 avg from R9 that year and with 5 scores above 150 in that stretch). Best season after 2012 in his career was 115 from 19 games and he only scored above 150 once again.

The history is against him and I hate starting “the exception” type picks. It’s just not as easy as it sounds to score above 115-120+ in SC.

You know as well as I that there's no such thing as a 'sure thing' in this game, that's half the challenge in this game. We all look at players through different lenses...and there's nothing wrong with that, if anything, it help makes for constructive and robust discussions which is what we're all about.

I'll add one last comment on Dunkley in that, unlike players you're comparing him to, the major difference is that he hasn't yet played a full season as an established, fully fledged midfielder. That alone says to me that we've yet to see his 'real' ceiling in that role, plus he has age on his side.

I'm not trying to convince you or anyone towards him, just wanted to share my observations and thoughts on him as a prospect and I strongly maintain that he has all the tools to enter that Uber Premium territory.

 

[Bomber18]

You know as well as I that there's no such thing as a 'sure thing' in this game, that's half the challenge in this game. We all look at players through different lenses...and there's nothing wrong with that, if anything, it help makes for constructive and robust discussions which is what we're all about.

I'll add one last comment on Dunkley in that, unlike players you're comparing him to, the major difference is that he hasn't yet played a full season as an established, fully fledged midfielder. That alone says to me that we've yet to see his 'real' ceiling in that role, plus he has age on his side.

I'm not trying to convince you or anyone towards him, just wanted to share my observations and thoughts on him as a prospect and I strongly maintain that he has all the tools to enter that Uber Premium territory.

Agree that there’s no such thing as a “sure thing” but makes it harder when the only historical example is Ablett, the best player in the last decade!

FWIW, my expectation is that he’ll go 110-115 and won’t be a disaster pick. But I just don’t see a 120+ season.

 

[Eagling]

Average of the 3 per week = 118.1 (22 games)

Macrae - 2710pts @ 123.2 (22 games)
Dunkley - 2562 @ 116.5 (22 games)
Bont - 2524 @ 114.7 (22 games)

Seems it's that easy.

Take all 3 and lock in a 118 average at 22 games each

 

[wt44]

Dunkley reminds me most of Tom Rockliff and his back half of 2013 after a role change. Backed it up averaging 132, top player in the game in 2014.

 

[pizza safety]

Well if what you are suggesting is that he’ll average 120+ this season, he’ll be the first since Ablett to initially breakout +20ppg to 110+ and then to follow it up to breakout immediately again to 120+ ppg.

For the most similar comparison I can think of, Beams scored 123 from 21 games as an uncanny third fiddle to Swan and Pendles in 2012 (with a 137 avg from R9 that year and with 5 scores above 150 in that stretch). Best season after 2012 in his career was 115 from 19 games and he only scored above 150 once again.

The history is against him and I hate starting “the exception” type picks. It’s just not as easy as it sounds to score above 115-120+ in SC.

Only two players have ever scored better than Dunkley in their 4th season and they were Selwood in 2010 and Beams in 2012.

In the case of Beams it's hard to make a comparison as he has more or less battled a raft of injuries since his 2012 season, especially the following year, and I don't think he ever had a genuine opportunity to replicate his form in that season. Selwood had some injury issues in his 2011 season but he took a few years to get up to 120, so he definitely fits in with your argument.

I don't think either of these players had a position change when they peaked. Dunkley with a 116 average playing pure midfield the entire season would be something I'd avoid the next season, but he averaged 128 after a move to the midfield, so I really think he would have averaged at least 125 as a midfielder last year if he would have had that role for another 6 games, thus I believe he's underpriced.

Josh Kelly and Oliver are two guys who recently backed up massive breakouts of 110+ from nowhere within the first 4 years of their careers, they didn't go on to average 120+ but I think JKelly would have if he wasn't suffering from injury. I don't think he'll necessarily get to 128 but I predict he will average 120-125 and has a ceiling of over 130.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Holy moly, some of these posts on Dunkley are making me very seriously consider him as a starting selection. He hasn’t been in any iterations of my side all pre-season but some great points have been made.

We are so spoilt for choice for premium mids this season.

 

[Bomber18]

I can still see why you’d be hesitant to pick him. He’s not actually currently in my side but he could take the place of Petracca or Lynch. My argument is just that he's not a typical 27 year old in terms of development and I don't think the comparisons apply but I still have different concerns about him as a scorer, like that he might regress to his 2018 form where he had higher time on ground and mid opportunity and still only averaged 85.

Are you saying Dunkley is an exception because his average is an outlier in the context of his career? You’re saying you don’t see a 120 season but he averaged 127.9 in 16 games (close to a full season) after a permanent move to the midfield. Is there an example of somebody breaking out to the 115 area but who has a 128 split in their average over a sample as big as 16 games after a move to a different part of the ground at his age?

He's an "exception" for me as there's a very limited number of players who have improved their average the season following a +20ppg breakout season to 110+. The only one, that's immediately done a 120+ season after a +20ppg breakout to 110+, is Gary Ablett (91 -> 114 -> 132). Two (from what I found) have improved on their average in the following season after a +20ppg breakout to 110+:
Dane Swan (102 -> 123 -> 127)
Oliver (70 -> 111 -> 115)

There are far more examples where a player did not improve their average after a +20ppg breakout to 110+ for the first time:
Rockliff (86 -> 114 -> 97)
Dangerfield (80 ->119 -> 113)
Beams (101 -> 123 -> 102)
M.Crouch (92 -> 111 -> 102)
Z.Merrett (88 -> 111 -> 109)
Bartel (105 -> 126 -> 116)
JPK (96 - > 119 -> 106)
Cripps (98 -> 119 -> 117)
J.Kelly (87 -> 114 -> 114)
Macrae (107 -> 127 -> 123)
L.Parker (87 -> 110 -> 99)
Montagna (97 -> 125 -> 115)
S.Johnson (97 - > 116 -> 107)
S.Thompson (91 -> 111 -> 110)

Also were close to my +20ppg improvement criteria but still did not improve after first hitting 110
T.Cotchin (101 -> 116 -> 102)
M.Duncan (92 -> 110 ->106)

Another interesting point about Dunkley's final 16 games is his average with and without Libba (in the without Libba I'm not counting the game where Libba got injured with <25%TOG).
Without Libba (playing more than 25%TOG) - 140 from 8
With Libba - 116 from 8

You can find reasons such as the R7 midfield move to suggest he's an exception and could do 120+, but there has to be some doubt whether he indeed does get that uninterrupted role for the duration of the season (Dunkley himself said he was happy to play more fwd if needed for the team). Even Macrae briefly found himself out the midfield brigade last season. Enough doubt to wait and see for me along with the history of breakout players.

@Rowsus has to get credit for the original analysis though, which is available here "Chasing last year's points". Uncanny how the point still holds true after 6 more seasons!

 

[Bomber18]

Only two players have ever scored better than Dunkley in their 4th season and they were Selwood in 2010 and Beams in 2012.

In the case of Beams it's hard to make a comparison as he has more or less battled a raft of injuries since his 2012 season, especially the following year, and I don't think he ever had a genuine opportunity to replicate his form in that season. Selwood had some injury issues in his 2011 season but he took a few years to get up to 120, so he definitely fits in with your argument.

I don't think either of these players had a position change when they peaked. Dunkley with a 116 average playing pure midfield the entire season would be something I'd avoid the next season, but he averaged 128 after a move to the midfield, so I really think he would have averaged at least 125 as a midfielder last year if he would have had that role for another 6 games, thus I believe he's underpriced.

Josh Kelly and Oliver are two guys who recently backed up massive breakouts of 110+ from nowhere within the first 4 years of their careers, they didn't go on to average 120+ but I think JKelly would have if he wasn't suffering from injury. I don't think he'll necessarily get to 128 but I predict he will average 120-125 and has a ceiling of over 130.

That's the thing though, for whatever reason, they did not back it up. Injury, role change, becoming the target of opposition coaches. It's rather uncanny. Although J.Kelly was still a poor starting pick following his breakout season, I know people got burnt.

Oliver has been an exception to every rule, had a second year breakout and yes did improve again after a breakout.

 

[PC]

Enjoying the discussion about the Dogs. Don't think you can start all three but two may be a possibility. Can't ignore the Bevo factor - he does things that don't help SC sides (although not as bad as Ross), and there lies the risk...

 

[Connoisseur]

J Dunkley:






Since Post Bye 2018: 114.84 from 32 (3/32 below 80, 11/32 below 100, 11/32 120+, 6/32 145+)
Averaging 28.28 disposals and 6.25 tackles throughout the above period.

Wins: 120 from 20 (2/20 below 80, 6/20 below 100, 8/20 120+)
2018: 106.38 from 8
2019: 129.08 from 12

Losses: 93.76 from 21 (5/21 below 80, 13/21 below 100, 3/21 120+)
2018: 79.67 from 11
2019: 101.3 from 10

Since Post Bye 2018- Disposals Avg: 28.28
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 29: 132.35 from 17 (0/17 below 80, 1/17 below 100, 10/17 120+)
SC avg when disposals below 29: 95 from 15 (3/15 below 80, 10/15 below 100, 1/15 120+)

 

[BigRuss]

Only two players have ever scored better than Dunkley in their 4th season and they were Selwood in 2010 and Beams in 2012.

In the case of Beams it's hard to make a comparison as he has more or less battled a raft of injuries since his 2012 season, especially the following year, and I don't think he ever had a genuine opportunity to replicate his form in that season. Selwood had some injury issues in his 2011 season but he took a few years to get up to 120, so he definitely fits in with your argument.

I don't think either of these players had a position change when they peaked. Dunkley with a 116 average playing pure midfield the entire season would be something I'd avoid the next season, but he averaged 128 after a move to the midfield, so I really think he would have averaged at least 125 as a midfielder last year if he would have had that role for another 6 games, thus I believe he's underpriced.

Josh Kelly and Oliver are two guys who recently backed up massive breakouts of 110+ from nowhere within the first 4 years of their careers, they didn't go on to average 120+ but I think JKelly would have if he wasn't suffering from injury. I don't think he'll necessarily get to 128 but I predict he will average 120-125 and has a ceiling of over 130.

He's an "exception" for me as there's a very limited number of players who have improved their average the season following a +20ppg breakout season to 110+. The only one, that's immediately done a 120+ season after a +20ppg breakout to 110+, is Gary Ablett (91 -> 114 -> 132). Two (from what I found) have improved on their average in the following season after a +20ppg breakout to 110+:
Dane Swan (102 -> 123 -> 127)
Oliver (70 -> 111 -> 115)

There are far more examples where a player did not improve their average after a +20ppg breakout to 110+ for the first time:
Rockliff (86 -> 114 -> 97)
Dangerfield (80 ->119 -> 113)
Beams (101 -> 123 -> 102)
M.Crouch (92 -> 111 -> 102)
Z.Merrett (88 -> 111 -> 109)
Bartel (105 -> 126 -> 116)
JPK (96 - > 119 -> 106)
Cripps (98 -> 119 -> 117)
J.Kelly (87 -> 114 -> 114)
Macrae (107 -> 127 -> 123)
L.Parker (87 -> 110 -> 99)
Montagna (97 -> 125 -> 115)
S.Johnson (97 - > 116 -> 107)
S.Thompson (91 -> 111 -> 110)

Also were close to my +20ppg improvement criteria but still did not improve after first hitting 110
T.Cotchin (101 -> 116 -> 102)
M.Duncan (92 -> 110 ->106)

Another interesting point about Dunkley's final 16 games is his average with and without Libba (in the without Libba I'm not counting the game where Libba got injured with <25%TOG).
Without Libba (playing more than 25%TOG) - 140 from 8
With Libba - 116 from 8

You can find reasons such as the R7 midfield move to suggest he's an exception and could do 120+, but there has to be some doubt whether he indeed does get that uninterrupted role for the duration of the season (Dunkley himself said he was happy to play more fwd if needed for the team). Even Macrae briefly found himself out the midfield brigade last season. Enough doubt to wait and see for me along with the history of breakout players.

@Rowsus has to get credit for the original analysis though, which is available here "Chasing last year's points". Uncanny how the point still holds true after 6 more seasons!

I like the Dunkley pick a lot, the fact that The Dogs went on an 8-3 tear in the back half of the year when Bevo settled the midfield to consist primarily of Macrae, Dunk and Bont leads me to think that that’s how they will continue, outside of injury or some Beveridge inspired insanity.

I don’t really see a reason why he can’t improve on his average, even if he were to drop as the trend seems to be, 10 points, he’s dropping from his 128 average in the midfield role not his 117 priced average and he becomes a fully priced player scoring at his price. Very low risk pick in my view.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Dunkley reminds me most of Tom Rockliff and his back half of 2013 after a role change. Backed it up averaging 132, top player in the game in 2014.

Why'd you go and say this

 

[THCLT]

Should I rename the thread title to Dunkley - Have Your Say...

 

[Bomber18]

I like the Dunkley pick a lot, the fact that The Dogs went on an 8-3 tear in the back half of the year when Bevo settled the midfield to consist primarily of Macrae, Dunk and Bont leads me to think that that’s how they will continue, outside of injury or some Beveridge inspired insanity.

I don’t really see a reason why he can’t improve on his average, even if he were to drop as the trend seems to be, 10 points, he’s dropping from his 128 average in the midfield role not his 117 priced average and he becomes a fully priced player scoring at his price. Very low risk pick in my view.

I’m not sure that’s how it works but I guess you can see it how you want to see it.

IIRC Bont was all the fuss one preseason as he averaged 117 from his last 12 games (2016). Following two seasons were only 105, 104.

The way I see it is as well is that Dunkley averaged 140 without Libba in his midfield role and 116 with Libba in his midfield role. Libba will be back early season and there is most definitely a question mark on the effect of that. Makes the most sense to wait and see at 630k.

 

[IDIG]

Average of the 3 per week = 118.1 (22 games)

Macrae - 2710pts @ 123.2 (22 games)
Dunkley - 2562 @ 116.5 (22 games)
Bont - 2524 @ 114.7 (22 games)

Seems it's that easy.

Take all 3 and lock in a 118 average at 22 games each

nope , locked all 3 of them in

Interestingly it’s actually not as silly as I initially thought. There’s scope for improvement in all 3 all coming in the form of consistency of role. I won’t be surprised if by seasons end they all average 120.

Great discussion re Dunkley. I’m pretty keen on him myself and think he’s a break even at worst pick and a clear trade out candidate if his role changes significantly.

I still have Libba at the back of my mind when it comes to expectation of what the Big 3 (is that what we’re calling them) might be able to average together but at this stage I’m triple-dogging too. It looks odd and doesn’t feel especially right but think 120 ave through the first 7 rounds where they have 5 at Marvel is possible. Having all 3 also eliminates any guesswork about which 1 or 2 to start as well

 

[Juzzo]

Dangerfield out.
Dunkley in.

 

[BigRuss]

I’m not sure that’s how it works but I guess you can see it how you want to see it.

IIRC Bont was all the fuss one preseason as he averaged 117 from his last 12 games (2016). Following two seasons were only 105, 104.

The way I see it is as well is that Dunkley averaged 140 without Libba in his midfield role and 116 with Libba in his midfield role. Libba will be back early season and there is most definitely a question mark on the effect of that. Makes the most sense to wait and see at 630k.

I should have prefaced my comment in that he’s not in my starting side for exactly the reasons you’ve pointed out. 125 is infinitely harder to achieve than 117. He is next in line if Josh Kelly falls out of favour for whatever reason though.

The Libba addition backs up my statement that even with him in the side he’s a break even prospect with significant upside. To be completely fair I reckon that there’s an argument to be made Libba isn’t even best 22 anymore.

That being the case, as you said the wait and see approach seems to make the most sense with him. We’re likely going to have to pay an absolute premium for mids this year and there’s scope for a dip in his scoring.

Would I be right in assuming Bont is in your side?