2014: Chasing Last Years Points .....

Rowsus

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#1
In the pre-season of 2013 I did a lot of research, to see if break-out players could back up their good form the following year. You can read that thread here:

Chasing last years points (MkII)

What I found in my study I thought was quite interesting. When a player did both of:
A) Had an increase on his previous years average of 20 or more points/game
B) That increase took him to an average of 102*/game or higher
That every player, outside of Ablett and Swan (possibly the 2 greatest SC players of all time), failed to back up that season. They all went BACKWARDS the next year.
Up to the end of 2012 there were only 18 players that had managed this feat, and played a subsequent season. All 18 went backwards, by between 0.1% and 31.8%. There were 10 players starting the 2013 season, that had managed both A and B above, that we needed to see how they performed in 2013, to see if the trend continued. It did!!! All 10 of those players went backwards in 2013!

Below I have produced the complete table of 28 players. I have highlighted the 2013 players in Light Blue, just for ease of identifying them.
The first column shows their game and average analysis, the year before the break out season. The second column shows their break out season. The third column shows how they went the year after their break out season.



There were many members here, confidently predicting that quite a few of the 2012 candidates would buck the trend in 2013 and hold or increase their output, but no, it was not to be! Some of these candidates were all too quickly considered SC "Royalty", I'm looking at you JPK and Maric. I didn't start with either, but ended up with both, and was highly disappointed. Someone did point out to me late last season, that I'd be a much better SC player, if I could just follow my own advice! He was right!

Does this guarantee that the trend will continue? No, but 28 out of 28, excluding the 2 best of all time is a pretty strong trend!
sven_inc, who I actually rate as one of the better analytical thinkers at this site (I wish he'd post more often!), pointed out that most of the players in last years tables had explainable drops. Explainable or not, as I said, 28 out of 28 is quite a trend!

So that leads all of you, (well, most of you anyway), to be keenly interested in knowing which 2013 players achieved both A and B above.
There is only 5, but BOY! is there some popular names amongst them!



* 102/game might seem quite random, but if you follow the link above, to the original thread, you will see why I use 102, and not 100! :)
 

Goodie's Guns

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#2
Great work Rowsus, I wonder if this will make people reconsider Goldstien especially??
 

Rowsus

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#3
Great work Rowsus, I wonder if this will make people reconsider Goldstien especially??
Thanks Goodies. I had already 90% dropped off starting Walker, but now I'm 100%. I was also half keen on Libba and Steven, but was having trouble squeezing them in. Now I'm not so fussed, even though I still think they'll be useful players this season.
 
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#4
Greta article Rowsus.

I actually went by the same theory last season without reading your article! This meant I didn't pick either Maric or Danger (both good choices)

But now that I have read your analysis from last year and this one, I have very much confirmed my theory.

I don't have any of these 5, and that is for the same reason.

However, I'm not sure Goldstein actually fits in this category.

Note he has already averaged 113 in a season, therefore I think last year was an anomaly due to the limited ruck game time caused by Mcintosh.

Another interesting thing is that Minson only misses this category by just 1 point average!

I wouldn't be surprised if Minson (unproven) actually drops off and Goldy (proven) puts in another huge year.

Lets wait and see what happens!
 

Rowsus

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#5
Greta article Rowsus.

I actually went by the same theory last season without reading your article! This meant I didn't pick either Maric or Danger (both good choices)

But now that I have read your analysis from last year and this one, I have very much confirmed my theory.

I don't have any of these 5, and that is for the same reason.

However, I'm not sure Goldstein actually fits in this category.

Note he has already averaged 113 in a season, therefore I think last year was an anomaly due to the limited ruck game time caused by Mcintosh.

Another interesting thing is that Minson only misses this category by just 1 point average!

I wouldn't be surprised if Minson (unproven) actually drops off and Goldy (proven) puts in another huge year.

Lets wait and see what happens!
As you can imagine, there have been a few over the years, that are just 1 or so points away from being in this list. The one I find most interesting is K Jack nearly made it twice.
2009 - 22/67.0
2010 - 22/100.2 - didn't make the list, because he was under 102
2011 - 16/80.9 - dropped 19.3 pts, after going up 33.2 - it was an injury affected season
2012 - 22/112.4
2013 - 22/109.3
Certainly, I think there is some room to make allowances for players that have "been there before". Still, I will be interested to see how Goldstein fares this season. :)
 

Fresh

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#6
Really interesting findings there Rowsus. My umming and ahing about putting Goldy as R1 I think is more justified now, he's looking very unlikely to get a starting gig in my team.

Have you found from your analysis if there is also a trend the year after the drop? Do most of these players record a similar bounce up in their average the following year?
 
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#7
Im picking Steven and liberatore for the easy draw early on, hopefully they can score well against weaker teams
In the pre-season of 2013 I did a lot of research, to see if break-out players could back up their good form the following year. You can read that thread here:

Chasing last years points (MkII)
.
What I found in my study I thought was quite interesting. When a player did both of:
A) Had an increase on his previous years average of 20 or more points/game
B) That increase took him to an average of 102*/game or higher
That every player, outside of Ablett and Swan (possibly the 2 greatest SC players of all time), failed to back up that season. They all went BACKWARDS the next year.
Up to the end of 2012 there were only 18 players that had managed this feat, and played a subsequent season. All 18 went backwards, by between 0.1% and 31.8%. There were 10 players starting the 2013 season, that had managed both A and B above, that we needed to see how they performed in 2013, to see if the trend continued. It did!!! All 10 of those players went backwards in 2013!

Below I have produced the complete table of 28 players. I have highlighted the 2013 players in Light Blue, just for ease of identifying them.
The first column shows their game and average analysis, the year before the break out season. The second column shows their break out season. The third column shows how they went the year after their break out season.



There were many members here, confidently predicting that quite a few of the 2012 candidates would buck the trend in 2013 and hold or increase their output, but no, it was not to be! Some of these candidates were all too quickly considered SC "Royalty", I'm looking at you JPK and Maric. I didn't start with either, but ended up with both, and was highly disappointed. Someone did point out to me late last season, that I'd be a much better SC player, if I could just follow my own advice! He was right!

Does this guarantee that the trend will continue? No, but 28 out of 28, excluding the 2 best of all time is a pretty strong trend!
sven_inc, who I actually rate as one of the better analytical thinkers at this site (I wish he'd post more often!), pointed out that most of the players in last years tables had explainable drops. Explainable or not, as I said, 28 out of 28 is quite a trend!

So that leads all of you, (well, most of you anyway), to be keenly interested in knowing which 2013 players achieved both A and B above.
There is only 5, but BOY! is there some popular names amongst them!



* 102/game might seem quite random, but if you follow the link above, to the original thread, you will see why I use 102, and not 100! :)
 

Rowsus

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#8
Really interesting findings there Rowsus. My umming and ahing about putting Goldy as R1 I think is more justified now, he's looking very unlikely to get a starting gig in my team.

Have you found from your analysis if there is also a trend the year after the drop? Do most of these players record a similar bounce up in their average the following year?
Off the top of my head, most bounce back up, but not to the level they had fallen from 2 years earlier. Some manage to get all, or nearly all the way back, but that is usually the ones that didn't fall so far in their "down" year.
 

Nk29

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#9
Off the top of my head, most bounce back up, but not to the level they had fallen from 2 years earlier. Some manage to get all, or nearly all the way back, but that is usually the ones that didn't fall so far in their "down" year.
I was actually about to ask the same thing, because based on the 3 I have solid exposure/good knowledge of (Fyfe, Martin and Goldstein), I feel like the players return to there breakout best (following a down year). I also feel like this is most evident in younger breakout players who struggle to live up to the expectations and with more opposition attention following their breakout, but after another year they are more mature and can start showing their best again. Just a theory and nothing really to back it up though.
 
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#10
I was actually about to ask the same thing, because based on the 3 I have solid exposure/good knowledge of (Fyfe, Martin and Goldstein), I feel like the players return to there breakout best (following a down year). I also feel like this is most evident in younger breakout players who struggle to live up to the expectations and with more opposition attention following their breakout, but after another year they are more mature and can start showing their best again. Just a theory and nothing really to back it up though.
zorko fingers crossed
 

cotchya

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#11
Was not even thinking about putting any of those 5 players in my starting squad anyway. Good work though mate.
 

av1jme

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#12
Great job Rowsus. Looks like Steven and Libba should slide down a little this year as its really hard to see them break the norm.

Steven will definitely get more attention with Dal Santo gone. Makes me think a little bit more about locking Steven in.
 
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#13
great work rowsus! this is hard to argue with and reaffirms afew things for me:)
 

IDIG

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#14
Perfectly timed article Rowsus. Like footyrulz, I was expecting Minson to be there too and also hasn't Douglas flown under the radar. I think this is probably the first time i've seen him mentioned!

Of those 5 i think Goldy, Steven and Libba represent the safest picks and Walker and Douglas the most risky.
 
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#15
Thanks Rowsus, more top quality stuff, I still think i like Walker as a defender, proved last year he has a big ceiling so i'm hoping that will keep him in the frame next year to finish as a top 6 defender.
 

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#16
Good work mate, appreciate it

This makes picking Goldy even tougher now, and with Minson missing out by 1 point, makes the rucks so tough.
 
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#17
Awesome as usual Rowsus. Will definitely not be starting Jack or Libba now. This damn M3 position is giving me such headaches already and it's not even 2014 yet.
 
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#18
Great analysis. I wouldn't be so quick to jump off Goldy though. Players like he and Minson that are undisputed first rucks are rolled gold.
 

MovingUpward

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#19
Thanks for the analysis Rowsus. Probably only 2 on the 2013 list I was looking at, but plenty of food for thought still...
 

BuddyLove

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Great article Rowsus

The interesting one for me is Scooter (your boy)!

He was VERY close to bucking the trend and joining Ablett and Swan this year.

If you look at his DreamTeam numbers he actually improved his average from 98 up to 108 BUT he his SC average stayed at 104...

The reason for this was his kicking efficiency which dropped from 67% down to 56%

The only other stat that had a significant differential was his tackle count which increased from 4.9 to 7.6 per game. I have a hunch (complete guess with no evidence to back it up) that SC didn't reward tackles as much in 2013.

So if only his kicking was a little bit better he could have joined SuperCoach Royalty! :)
 
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