In the pre-season of 2013 I did a lot of research, to see if break-out players could back up their good form the following year. You can read that thread here:
Chasing last years points (MkII)
What I found in my study I thought was quite interesting. When a player did both of:
A) Had an increase on his previous years average of 20 or more points/game
B) That increase took him to an average of 102*/game or higher
That every player, outside of Ablett and Swan (possibly the 2 greatest SC players of all time), failed to back up that season. They all went BACKWARDS the next year.
Up to the end of 2012 there were only 18 players that had managed this feat, and played a subsequent season. All 18 went backwards, by between 0.1% and 31.8%. There were 10 players starting the 2013 season, that had managed both A and B above, that we needed to see how they performed in 2013, to see if the trend continued. It did!!! All 10 of those players went backwards in 2013!
Below I have produced the complete table of 28 players. I have highlighted the 2013 players in Light Blue, just for ease of identifying them.
The first column shows their game and average analysis, the year before the break out season. The second column shows their break out season. The third column shows how they went the year after their break out season.
There were many members here, confidently predicting that quite a few of the 2012 candidates would buck the trend in 2013 and hold or increase their output, but no, it was not to be! Some of these candidates were all too quickly considered SC "Royalty", I'm looking at you JPK and Maric. I didn't start with either, but ended up with both, and was highly disappointed. Someone did point out to me late last season, that I'd be a much better SC player, if I could just follow my own advice! He was right!
Does this guarantee that the trend will continue? No, but 28 out of 28, excluding the 2 best of all time is a pretty strong trend!
sven_inc, who I actually rate as one of the better analytical thinkers at this site (I wish he'd post more often!), pointed out that most of the players in last years tables had explainable drops. Explainable or not, as I said, 28 out of 28 is quite a trend!
So that leads all of you, (well, most of you anyway), to be keenly interested in knowing which 2013 players achieved both A and B above.
There is only 5, but BOY! is there some popular names amongst them!
* 102/game might seem quite random, but if you follow the link above, to the original thread, you will see why I use 102, and not 100!
Chasing last years points (MkII)
What I found in my study I thought was quite interesting. When a player did both of:
A) Had an increase on his previous years average of 20 or more points/game
B) That increase took him to an average of 102*/game or higher
That every player, outside of Ablett and Swan (possibly the 2 greatest SC players of all time), failed to back up that season. They all went BACKWARDS the next year.
Up to the end of 2012 there were only 18 players that had managed this feat, and played a subsequent season. All 18 went backwards, by between 0.1% and 31.8%. There were 10 players starting the 2013 season, that had managed both A and B above, that we needed to see how they performed in 2013, to see if the trend continued. It did!!! All 10 of those players went backwards in 2013!
Below I have produced the complete table of 28 players. I have highlighted the 2013 players in Light Blue, just for ease of identifying them.
The first column shows their game and average analysis, the year before the break out season. The second column shows their break out season. The third column shows how they went the year after their break out season.
There were many members here, confidently predicting that quite a few of the 2012 candidates would buck the trend in 2013 and hold or increase their output, but no, it was not to be! Some of these candidates were all too quickly considered SC "Royalty", I'm looking at you JPK and Maric. I didn't start with either, but ended up with both, and was highly disappointed. Someone did point out to me late last season, that I'd be a much better SC player, if I could just follow my own advice! He was right!
Does this guarantee that the trend will continue? No, but 28 out of 28, excluding the 2 best of all time is a pretty strong trend!
sven_inc, who I actually rate as one of the better analytical thinkers at this site (I wish he'd post more often!), pointed out that most of the players in last years tables had explainable drops. Explainable or not, as I said, 28 out of 28 is quite a trend!
So that leads all of you, (well, most of you anyway), to be keenly interested in knowing which 2013 players achieved both A and B above.
There is only 5, but BOY! is there some popular names amongst them!
* 102/game might seem quite random, but if you follow the link above, to the original thread, you will see why I use 102, and not 100!
