2014: Chasing Last Years Points .....

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Hawthorn
#21
Mate thanks for the pump up, I'm flattered!

Love to post more often but unfortunately other aspects of my life seem to get in the way of me contributing too much.

I enjoyed the discussions we had about this time last year regarding this and id love to throw my two cents in again if that's ok?

From memory I felt I could give legitimate reasons for the larger drop o*** from injury to role change etc, which in the end still backs up your stats - as in it doesn't really matter why they dropped off because they all still did. And id certainly expect those trends to continue for those mentioned above into next season.

The only point I'd throw in there is does it actually matter? For some id say yes and others no.

Before reading this my general sentiments towards each one of those players seems to be backed up by ur stats in that I can see them dropping by varying degrees including Minson. If I could use Walker as an example - if he does hypothetically dip to say a 100 average for whatever reason - and you were confident in that - then it almost wouldnt matter as hed still most likely be a top 5 defender. If you're confident that he's consistent enough, which he was I guess last year, then having him from the start wouldnt be a bad ploy. Sure he doesn't have 'value' in true SC terms and had a worse year, but if hes close to being the best for his position he's theoretically still relevant IMO.

Last season I thought Gaz would drop his average to about 130 and Cox to somewhere close to 105. Again from memory I cant remember their actual averages from 2012 to last season but I expected them both to drop substantially from the year before, but still went with them because of their relative standings amongst their respective peers.

I guess for me it all really rides on what my expected scores are and whether thats acceptable given each unique circumstance they relate too.

Top work by the way, especially when it seems to validate the many random thoughts I have floating around my own head :)
 
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Hawthorn
#22
Just mulling over this again overnight, I think the other thing to consider perennially with these types of players is at some stage another Gaz, Swan and Pendlebury will emerge and tear the trend to shreds as these guys have. I can see a lot of Swan in Steven in both game style and whorish SC point scoring ability and to a similar extent Libba. Its just whether their respective circumstances would allow them to flourish, plateau or drop off.
 

Rowsus

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#23
Just mulling over this again overnight, I think the other thing to consider perennially with these types of players is at some stage another Gaz, Swan and Pendlebury will emerge and tear the trend to shreds as these guys have. I can see a lot of Swan in Steven in both game style and whorish SC point scoring ability and to a similar extent Libba. Its just whether their respective circumstances would allow them to flourish, plateau or drop off.
I totally agree. There is nothing surer than the fact, that new "Super" Premiums will emerge at some stage, and it is a good chance that more than one will pop up in the same year. For the most part, I think they are more likely to emerge from a team running around 5th to 10th, but on the improve, than they are to come from the high or low end of the ladder. That might make it a little more difficult for Libba and Steven, but having said that, I've been made to look like a monkey on several occassions before! :)
 
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Hawthorn
#24
It would certainly be interesting to try and predict the next one! We may need to wait until O'Meara gets a bit older!
 
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Hawthorn
#25
Just wondering stats gurus - did GAJ or Pendles have second year blues like just about every other player??
 

Nk29

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#26
Just wondering stats gurus - did GAJ or Pendles have second year blues like just about every other player??
Pendles didn't (runner up in the 07 rising star award to Selwood), Ablett not sure but he wasn't particularly good until '06 (though showed a lot of talent up until then).
 
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Hawthorn
#27
Sorry Nk, my question was poorly formed - really I was wondering if they had a down year after their breakout season?
 

Nk29

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#28
Sorry Nk, my question was poorly formed - really I was wondering if they had a down year after their breakout season?
Nope neither did:

Pendles seasonal averages since debut in '06: 57, 89, 103, 106, 110, 129, 125, 127

Ablett's since '06: 91, 114, 132, 140, 130, 127, 138, 129

However what is interesting is both had steady increases to premium levels (around 110-115ppg) before exploding to super premiums.

Btw if you want to check stats/past fantasy scores etc., footywire is a great website :).
 

Goodie's Guns

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#29
Nope neither did:

Pendles seasonal averages since debut in '06: 57, 89, 103, 106, 110, 129, 125, 127

Ablett's since '06: 91, 114, 132, 140, 130, 127, 138, 129

However what is interesting is both had steady increases to premium levels (around 110-115ppg) before exploding to super premiums.

Btw if you want to check stats/past fantasy scores etc., footywire is a great website :).
Cheers for posting those stats Nk, really good breakdown across the seasons there.
In summary they are both SC guns!!
 

Rowsus

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#30
So a general question that this thread raises is, how does the players break out season compare with the rest of his career?
In the chart below you can see all 30 players that scored a season average equal to or over 102/game, after having a season average at least 20/game lower the season before.
I have broken the the table into 3 sections.
The top section shows the only 4 players to have surpassed that break out season average in a subsequent season. Looking at the names you have Ablett, Goddard and Swan, all SC royalty, and Goldstein, who might turn out to be Royalty, but probably only qualifies as a Viscount right now. He only just qualified for this section by 0.3% anyway.
The 26 players below these 4 all failed to better their 20+ break out season averages in subsequent seasons. This was their career high point, from then until now!
Hodge actually managed a higher average than his 20+ jump season, but it was before he had the 20+ jump. These 26 players HIGHEST season average, after their 20+ jump, was on average 10% lower than their jump season.
The bottom 4 players have been seperated, because their history showed they were capable of having seasons within an acceptable "Premium" level. It was no complete surprise that they bounced back to, or just above, their old levels. some of you might argue Tuck was a surprise, and it was, but he'd flown that high before.



Legend
Green score is the score before their break out season
Blue score is the break out season
Purple score is the season after their break out season
Red square is where their break out season was their career high
Pink square is where the career high was not in their break out season.
The "best after" column shows the difference, percentage wise, between their break out season, and their BEST season AFTER their break out season.

So what do we take from this?
Basically, in my mind, unless you think a player is going to go on, and become SC Royalty, their 20+ jump season can be seen as their benchmark, or even 10% higher than their benchmark. Remember, history is history for a reason. When you are backing players to break new ground, or re-write history, you will be wrong a lot more than you are right. You want to have pretty good reasons to back them in, if that's the path you choose. Having said that, I'm not suggesting writing off all the players who are more recent entries to this list, just have realistic expectations. It's okay to back a Beams or Dangerfield, and select them in your team, but to expect they might set new levels might be too much. Still, if they can return just below their 2012 averages, you'd be pretty happy!
 

broges

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#31
Compelling statistics once again Rowsus! Reading these stats above, it appears folly to chase previous year's points, especially when that previous year was a breakout year. However, there may be merit in chasing points from 2 years back where we expect a player to bounce back after their dip year. There appear to be some examples in the above list where that has happened in 2013: Goldstein, Rockliff, Fyfe and Leuenberger. Gives us some hope that players such as Nic Nat and D Beams can bounce back in 2014. :)
 
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Hawthorn
#33
Hmmm, I am looking over things - does Dusty almost fall into the chasing last year's points camp?

Year - Games - Avg
2010 - 21 - 77.9
2011 - 22 - 98.91
2012 - 20 - 88.5
2013 - 22 - 101.8

Or do we regard 2011 as his breakout? Or is he yet to breakout? Or am I chasing shadows and risking Johno telling me I am stupid :eek:
 
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#34
Hmmm, I am looking over things - does Dusty almost fall into the chasing last year's points camp?

Year - Games - Avg
2010 - 21 - 77.9
2011 - 22 - 98.91
2012 - 20 - 88.5
2013 - 22 - 101.8

Or do we regard 2011 as his breakout? Or is he yet to breakout? Or am I chasing shadows and risking Johno telling me I am stupid :eek:
A little but I think when it comes to a genuine mid listed as a fwd it's slightly different
 

Demolished

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#35
Hmmm, I am looking over things - does Dusty almost fall into the chasing last year's points camp?

Year - Games - Avg
2010 - 21 - 77.9
2011 - 22 - 98.91
2012 - 20 - 88.5
2013 - 22 - 101.8

Or do we regard 2011 as his breakout? Or is he yet to breakout? Or am I chasing shadows and risking Johno telling me I am stupid :eek:
I think he has enormous talent and we are yet to see the best of him.
 

Philzsay

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#36
Hmmm, I am looking over things - does Dusty almost fall into the chasing last year's points camp?

Year - Games - Avg
2010 - 21 - 77.9
2011 - 22 - 98.91
2012 - 20 - 88.5
2013 - 22 - 101.8

Or do we regard 2011 as his breakout? Or is he yet to breakout? Or am I chasing shadows and risking Johno telling me I am stupid :eek:
I'm hoping the improvement comes from being able to better finish out games this year. Last year particularly earlier in the year he would have massive first quarters or first half only to stop in the second half. Another years experience should see more consistency. (I hope!)
 
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#37
Hmmm, I am looking over things - does Dusty almost fall into the chasing last year's points camp?

Year - Games - Avg
2010 - 21 - 77.9
2011 - 22 - 98.91
2012 - 20 - 88.5
2013 - 22 - 101.8

Or do we regard 2011 as his breakout? Or is he yet to breakout? Or am I chasing shadows and risking Johno telling me I am stupid :eek:
Dusty will keep getting better and better. Tigers like to get the ball in his hands so he can use his perfect kick. He will get you goals from outside 50 plus get cheap kicks aswell and with another preseason under his belt i think he can improve his ave and get better. He should be in 100% of team with our draw plus full preseason I can't see a downside.
 
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#39
Just wanted to come back to this list for a minute. Of the five who could be classified as the 'risks' this year (i.e.: Walker, Liberatore, Douglas, Steven & Goldstein), the one I'm least concerned about is Douglas. I was seriously considering picking him in 2013, as his 2012 average of 80 was severely under-priced (can't remember why, but I'm pretty sure he copped a few green vests). As such, his jump from 2012 to 2013 wasn't really as big as the top-line stats indicate.

That all being said, I don't think he'll improve much more, and not enough to warrant a MID spot.
 
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#40
Dusty will keep getting better and better. Tigers like to get the ball in his hands so he can use his perfect kick.
I am a massive Dusty fan but believe that his kicking could definately improve! To me it seems when he tries to kick the ball 60m from the back half up to a wing, many a time it will just be a mongrel punt. stats might prove me wrong but as I watched lots of his games last year remember thinking to myself that it was an area I thought he was over-hyped

Will definately be in my team this season though
 
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