Position Midfielder Discussion

[stephen]

See a lot of Oliver locks throughout and I feel like I’m the only one just not getting it - no surety Melbourne get better and surely there’s better options that are cheaper like Cogs? What’s with the Oliver love?

Hasn't missed a game in three years. Three consecutive years scoring at mid premo levels. Priced to his lowest season in those three years. Still only 22 so possible we haven't seen his ceiling. Incredible SC record.

 

[TopBillings]

See a lot of Oliver locks throughout and I feel like I’m the only one just not getting it - no surety Melbourne get better and surely there’s better options that are cheaper like Cogs? What’s with the Oliver love?

Oliver missed almost all of last years pre season with 2 shoulder recos and still scored 109

Expect him to get back up to the 115 mark imo

 

[THCLT]

Could you add Hopper to that list. Would take a lot of guts to pick him but he was due to keep progressing before Taranto went down. I’ve got a feeling he could really jump out of the blocks now. He won’t play forward as much as Cogs and Greene this year either. Would be a real POD.
Don’t think I’ll do it.. but tempting.

He was one of a few 'young' MIDs that I had a real close look at over the past month. He has all the hallmarks of being an SC stud, and has plenty of growth areas to his game such as possession, DE & TOG. I rate him as more of a chance to get to Premium status than Taranto and only continuity of games has prevented him from showing us all his 'true' SC potential. This could be the year where all the planets align for him as an SC prospect.

The hesitation I have in committing to starting this type for this year is that we have quite a high number of established premiums vying for that top tier. This has forced me to be more selective and shrewd with my choices which ultimately snu*** out any remote chance of going for a young breakout type.

I'm not completely ruling out taking one of them, but it's looking more unlikely than likely as things unfold.

 

[jaca]

Each year there is generally a name in the $500k-$550k range that I am happy to have in my team however this year there is not one that leaps off the screen at me. Maybe Callan Ward is the one however with the GWS mid competition I wasn’t convinced and with his late start it rules him out anyway.

Who is the best prospect in that range?

I just realised the other one who falls into this group is Dusty.

 

[pizza safety]

Looking at the Draft Doctor's website nobody seemed to consistently have as many players with over 80% CBA's in games as the bulldogs did with Dunkley, Macrae and Bont in the second half of 2019. They basically went the other way after seeming to rotate the midfielders a lot in the first half of the year and it worked. My question is whether they can continue to do this consistently and whether Libba and Wallis upset the amount of inside mid time they all get.

In particular when Libba returned from rounds 18-20 Dunkley seemed to score worse, with scores of 127, 88 and 107. Earlier in the year it was Macrae who suffered as he only attended 58% of CB's between rounds 1-11 and averaged 113, compared to 80% and a 133 avg from rounds 13-23. Overall Dunkley averaged 116 with Libba playing over 50% tog in 2019 after his move to the midfield, although this should probably be slightly higher given Dunkley's huge first quarter in the game where Libba got injured vs Carlton.

The concern is that one of the 3 big guns might drop off because of Libba and Wallis (who is a very decent inside mid and clearance winner when given the time there). They found success when keeping the midfield simple and consistent but these types of things are innately volatile.

Leaning towards picking Macrae as my only Bulldog and picking JKelly over Dunkley due to this. If Wallis is out of the team come round one and if Libba doesn't appear to be coming back too soon I'll probably go back to Dunkley as there's a decent chance Libba gets re-injured during the season (I hope not) and JKelly is always going to be an injury risk.

Thanks to @Bomber18 for pointing out Libba's impact on Dunkley to get me onto this.

 

[OnTopBar]

Looking at the Draft Doctor's website nobody seemed to consistently have as many players with over 80% CBA's in games as the bulldogs did with Dunkley, Macrae and Bont in the second half of 2019. They basically went the other way after seeming to rotate the midfielders a lot in the first half of the year and it worked. My question it's whether they can continue to do this consistently and whether Libba and Wallis upset the amount of inside mid time they all get.

In particular when Libba returned from rounds 18-20 Dunkley seemed to score worse, with scores of 127, 88 and 107. Earlier in the year it was Macrae who suffered as he only attended 58% of CB's between rounds 1-11 and averaged 113, compared to 80% and a 133 avg from rounds 13-23. Overall Dunkley averaged 116 with Libba playing over 50% tog in 2019 after his move to the midfield, although this should probably be slightly higher given Dunkley's huge first quarter in the game where Libba got injured vs Carlton.

The concern is that one of the 3 big guns might drop off because of Libba and Wallis (who is a very decent inside mid and clearance winner when given the time there). They found success when keeping the midfield simple and consistent but these types of things are innately volatile.

Leaning towards picking Macrae as my only Bulldog and picking JKelly over Dunkley due to this. If Wallis is out of the team come round one and if Libba doesn't appear to be coming back too soon I'll probably go back to Dunkley as there's a decent chance Libba gets re-injured during the season (I hope not) and JKelly is always going to be an injury risk.

Thanks to @Bomber18 for pointing out Libba's impact on Dunkley to get me onto this.

It appears that Wallis is spending time Fwd which helps Dunkley, both Dunkley and Bont weren't very effective as Fwds

 

[Professor]

@randomcliche as you like Ed as a pick.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1234739066551193600

 

[pizza safety]

Looking at the Draft Doctor's website nobody seemed to consistently have as many players with over 80% CBA's in games as the bulldogs did with Dunkley, Macrae and Bont in the second half of 2019. They basically went the other way after seeming to rotate the midfielders a lot in the first half of the year and it worked. My question is whether they can continue to do this consistently and whether Libba and Wallis upset the amount of inside mid time they all get.

In particular when Libba returned from rounds 18-20 Dunkley seemed to score worse, with scores of 127, 88 and 107. Earlier in the year it was Macrae who suffered as he only attended 58% of CB's between rounds 1-11 and averaged 113, compared to 80% and a 133 avg from rounds 13-23. Overall Dunkley averaged 116 with Libba playing over 50% tog in 2019 after his move to the midfield, although this should probably be slightly higher given Dunkley's huge first quarter in the game where Libba got injured vs Carlton.

The concern is that one of the 3 big guns might drop off because of Libba and Wallis (who is a very decent inside mid and clearance winner when given the time there). They found success when keeping the midfield simple and consistent but these types of things are innately volatile.

Leaning towards picking Macrae as my only Bulldog and picking JKelly over Dunkley due to this. If Wallis is out of the team come round one and if Libba doesn't appear to be coming back too soon I'll probably go back to Dunkley as there's a decent chance Libba gets re-injured during the season (I hope not) and JKelly is always going to be an injury risk.

Thanks to @Bomber18 for pointing out Libba's impact on Dunkley to get me onto this.

Looks like Libba will be back pretty early on in the season, which can't be good news for any of their midfielders. I can't help but feel like if Libba, Wallis, Bailey Smith and Lipinski are all playing in the same team that one of the 3 dogs will be impacted and it's just a matter of which one. I think the one least likely to be affected is Macrae, although he has shown an ability in the past to play time on the wing.

A counterargument can be made that only one of Libba or Wallis fits in their side.

 

[Seymour Skinner]

He literally did it with a fairly gentle nudge into the back of Kennedy at a stoppage - nothing in it at all, no force, no impact, nothing and it fully popped out without going back in.

I don't think I've seen anything like it from a player who wasn't already having issues with his shoulder popping out.

A similar thing happened to me a few years ago.
Dislocated my shoulder going back into a marking contest, the forward barely grazed me, but just tapped the wrong spot at the wrong time at the wrong angle and my shoulder just fell out.
Had never had shoulder issues before that.

 

[Bomber18]

Looking at the Draft Doctor's website nobody seemed to consistently have as many players with over 80% CBA's in games as the bulldogs did with Dunkley, Macrae and Bont in the second half of 2019. They basically went the other way after seeming to rotate the midfielders a lot in the first half of the year and it worked. My question is whether they can continue to do this consistently and whether Libba and Wallis upset the amount of inside mid time they all get.

In particular when Libba returned from rounds 18-20 Dunkley seemed to score worse, with scores of 127, 88 and 107. Earlier in the year it was Macrae who suffered as he only attended 58% of CB's between rounds 1-11 and averaged 113, compared to 80% and a 133 avg from rounds 13-23. Overall Dunkley averaged 116 with Libba playing over 50% tog in 2019 after his move to the midfield, although this should probably be slightly higher given Dunkley's huge first quarter in the game where Libba got injured vs Carlton.

The concern is that one of the 3 big guns might drop off because of Libba and Wallis (who is a very decent inside mid and clearance winner when given the time there). They found success when keeping the midfield simple and consistent but these types of things are innately volatile.

Leaning towards picking Macrae as my only Bulldog and picking JKelly over Dunkley due to this. If Wallis is out of the team come round one and if Libba doesn't appear to be coming back too soon I'll probably go back to Dunkley as there's a decent chance Libba gets re-injured during the season (I hope not) and JKelly is always going to be an injury risk.

Thanks to @Bomber18 for pointing out Libba's impact on Dunkley to get me onto this.

View attachment 16079

Looks like Libba will be back pretty early on in the season, which can't be good news for any of their midfielders. I can't help but feel like if Libba, Wallis, Bailey Smith and Lipinski are all playing in the same team that one of the 3 dogs will be impacted and it's just a matter of which one. I think the one least likely to be affected is Macrae, although he has shown an ability in the past to play time on the wing.

A counterargument can be made that only one of Libba or Wallis fits in their side.

Interesting to see your thinking change. The devil's advocate position to my own argument (which you raised) is that Dunkley still scored huge in that Carlton game with Libba playing the first quarter and it's a small sample size nonetheless. The effect overall based on last year's data is unclear as at best it is 8.5 games where Dunkley averaged say 120 or 8 games where Dunkley averaged 116.

My point is that these sort of things always tend to pop up to mean that for some reason or another, a breakout player just doesn't back it up. An injured player returning is one of those reasons; injury, tags, role changes are others. Perhaps it was just a "hot streak" (I think Rowsus raised that theory for S.Martin somewhere). You could argue Beam's 2012 season was just a "hot streak" as well.

I'm a much bigger fan of JKelly as I am a sucker for those picks that I think have high scoring potential but injury prone. Not everyone loves them, but Taylor Adams is the best example of where it can all click for a players sometimes.

 

[50 shades of Wade]

https://www.afl.com.au/news/380870/star-pie-to-miss-season-opener-with-hamstring-strain

A new POD for round 2

 

[Nathan]

Thinking the top mids all being in there prime is a factor in them being collectively so popular. Ablett/Pendles/Selwood/JPK completely out of the equation.

 

[armesy]

I don't understand this line of thinking. If I have a player in mind, and I'm worried about a tag - then I WANT them to come up against it in rounds 1 and 2.

A) Because it's the only time that a score won't affect their price for 3 rounds, and
B) Because if they do turn out to be a great pick, then their season average is disproportionally affected by these two scores, and it keeps the masses off for longer

Love the thinking

 

[inwhiterooms]

Yes, I think I have settled on starting none of those three. Obviously all have their own significant appeal and I have FOMO but I am more confident in the others and you can't start them all.

I’ve settled on the exact same crop ?

 

[randomcliche]

@randomcliche as you like Ed as a pick.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1234739066551193600

Thanks Professor! He's in the best 4 of 5 midfielders.... bhahahaa... his scoring when he gets there is only behind Cripps... he works hard, and he's working hard on making his way back in my team....

 

[pizza safety]

Interesting to see your thinking change. The devil's advocate position to my own argument (which you raised) is that Dunkley still scored huge in that Carlton game with Libba playing the first quarter and it's a small sample size nonetheless. The effect overall based on last year's data is unclear as at best it is 8.5 games where Dunkley averaged say 120 or 8 games where Dunkley averaged 116.

My point is that these sort of things always tend to pop up to mean that for some reason or another, a breakout player just doesn't back it up. An injured player returning is one of those reasons; injury, tags, role changes are others. Perhaps it was just a "hot streak" (I think Rowsus raised that theory for S.Martin somewhere). You could argue Beam's 2012 season was just a "hot streak" as well.

I'm a much bigger fan of JKelly as I am a sucker for those picks that I think have high scoring potential but injury prone. Not everyone loves them, but Taylor Adams is the best example of where it can all click for a players sometimes.

The change in my mind started when you pointed out the Libba effect and then I looked back at what the draft doctors had written down for CBA's and noticed that the Bulldogs were remarkably consistent in their set up compared to other teams with Bont, Macrae and Dunkley regularly spending 80% of time in the midfield. Overall I think Macrae attended about 70% of centre bounces (based on a freako tweet and the draft doctors tally) for the year, which we can expect to continue even with Libba and Wallis back in the line up, but Dunkley seems to have attended close to 80% since his move to the midfield in round 7 and that number might go down. That fact combined with the evidence you showed me about 20 extra ppg breakouts into the 110's not going up to the 120's the following year has made me more skeptical of him. I wouldn't be as skeptical if it was either fact in isolation.

Even though Wallis might not be best 22 and is said to play forward this year the prospectus said he had a +9.1% CB attendance differential, ranked 11th of the top 125 attendees (Prospectus) and his clearances numbers are also high and he's definitely a threat for mid time . Libba attended 51% of CB's but his attendance differential was the =3rd best of the top 100 attendees (Prospectus).

I still like the Dunkley pick and think he's going to go 115+ this year but I'm more skeptical about whether he can hit the same ceiling as JKelly if these other mids enter the side and given that these other mids are all high level inside midfielders. It's worth noting that my imagination would tell me that Macrae would have the lowest attendance differential but that his ball use from stoppages would be the most efficient (although Bont's would be the most damaging).

I really like Dunkley and Kelly as picks but I'm forced to choose one of them. I feel as though Kelly has the better chance of getting to the next level and averaging over 125 given that he can score well on the inside or on the wing and will play in both positions, hopefully for the first time in 3 seasons without carrying injury. It would only take a Libba setback in his recovery for me to change my mind, particularly in combination with Wallis not being named for round one.

 

[Bomber18]

The change in my mind started when you pointed out the Libba effect and then I looked back at what the draft doctors had written down for CBA's and noticed that the Bulldogs were remarkably consistent in their set up compared to other teams with Bont, Macrae and Dunkley regularly spending 80% of time in the midfield. Overall I think Macrae attended about 70% of centre bounces (based on a freako tweet and the draft doctors tally) for the year, which we can expect to continue even with Libba and Wallis back in the line up, but Dunkley seems to have attended close to 80% since his move to the midfield in round 7 and that number might go down. That fact combined with the evidence you showed me about 20 extra ppg breakouts into the 110's not going up to the 120's the following year has made me more skeptical of him. I wouldn't be as skeptical if it was either fact in isolation.

Even though Wallis might not be best 22 and is said to play forward this year the prospectus said he had a +9.1% CB attendance differential, ranked 11th of the top 125 attendees (Prospectus) and his clearances numbers are also high and he's definitely a threat for mid time . Libba attended 51% of CB's but his attendance differential was the =3rd best of the top 100 attendees (Prospectus).

I still like the Dunkley pick and think he's going to go 115+ this year but I'm more skeptical about whether he can hit the same ceiling as JKelly if these other mids enter the side and given that these other mids are all high level inside midfielders. It's worth noting that my imagination would tell me that Macrae would have the lowest attendance differential but that his ball use from stoppages would be the most efficient (although Bont's would be the most damaging).

I really like Dunkley and Kelly as picks but I'm forced to choose one of them. I feel as though Kelly has the better chance of getting to the next level and averaging over 125 given that he can score well on the inside or on the wing and will play in both positions, hopefully for the first time in 3 seasons without carrying injury. It would only take a Libba setback in his recovery for me to change my mind, particularly in combination with Wallis not being named for round one.

Great analysis and handy stats from the prospectus. I hadn't really thought of Wallis as well but it's possibile that he has an effect too. It was really the perfect storm for Dunkley in the second half of 2019 with both Wallis and Libba missing large chunks.

I'm quite bullish on J.Kelly as well so I agree with the J.Kelly over Dunkley move. Fingers crossed and hopefully he doesn't go too large in Marsh 2 to lose his fairly POD status.

 

[pizza safety]

Great analysis and handy stats from the prospectus. I hadn't really thought of Wallis as well but it's possibile that he has an effect too. It was really the perfect storm for Dunkley in the second half of 2019 with both Wallis and Libba missing large chunks.

I'm quite bullish on J.Kelly as well so I agree with the J.Kelly over Dunkley move. Fingers crossed and hopefully he doesn't go too large in Marsh 2 to lose his fairly POD status.

The Wallis issue is not as pertinent as the Libba issue but really there are two highly capable centre bounce midfielders who more or less left the 3 big dogs unimpeded in the second half of last year. I'm thinking that starting Bont with Macrae or any of the two in tandem carries some degree of extra risk.

The only other counterpoint is really that Dunkley was so good last year from rounds 7-24, including being 1st in the league for groundball gets during this time, that he can overcome these concerns through sheer ability or by becoming the midfielder the dogs utilise the most on the inside. That's a less rational argument and one that is hard to utilise but I do think his ability and what he has shown thus far will lead him to being a 120+ player for at least a few future years. I don't foresee him as a Dayne Beams with an injury plagued career or being a flash in the pan.

Let's definitely hope that JKelly can stay fit and not do too much in Marsh 2. I can't close my eyes and envision a healthy JKelly averaging below 120 in the games he plays and his ceiling is much higher than that, so if I'm picking him over Dunkley I'm not really nervous that I'm missing out on points. I've had JKelly in and out for all of preseason but usually not at Dunkley's expense. My other mids are Cripps (reliable scorer and fast starter with upside), Danger (more mid time this year, still the best scorer per 100 midfield minutes of all the top mids from last year and has a good bye) Oliver (good value with upside) are all also better picks for now.

 

[Buddy Starmart]

would it be silly to see treloar on my bench and he then starts round 2 at best but depends on all my other options in team

 

[Diabolical]

would it be silly to see treloar on my bench and he then starts round 2 at best but depends on all my other options in team

I think so. Why pick a premium who is not playing and has an injury cloud hanging over him when you can launch a fast start with a free hit at any other premium. The only time I would consider something like that is if a bench rookie went absolutely huge and I wanted find a way to field the score.