Position Defender Discussion

[Rockydunlop]

Milera I haven’t completely crossed off and can see the attraction, but have not really considered Witherden. Narrowly dodged the Withers bullet last year, so hard to have a lot of faith.

I think milera will be a superstar in this game. Sitting on a nice 5yr deal and has amazing skills. The question I have is, is this the year? I'm thinking 2021. This week's game will hopefully tell me more.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

With Houston looking less appealing, any love for brodie smith?

Playing mids, scored better than Laird when switched to mids last year, round 14 bye, looked to ave 97 post role change.

Am I missing something that gives concern. Is the fact he started cheap last year and now he is priced higher mentally it is a bridge too far.

 

[pizza safety]

Say you start:
Laird, Sicily and Docherty

about 8-9 rounds in you trade in Caleb Daniel

Round 11:
Daniel, Laird, Sic, Doc (4 premiums)

Round 12 (trade in Houston):
Daniel, Laird, Sic, Houston, Doc (5 premiums)

Round 13:
Daniel, Laird, Sic, Houston (4 premiums)

Round 14: (trade in Jake Lloyd):
Lloyd, Houston, Doc (3 premiums)

A total of 16 premiums playing over these 4 weeks.


Say you start:
Sicily, Houston, Docherty

and about 8-9 rounds in you trade in Caleb Daniel

Round 11:
Daniel, Sic, Doc (3 premiums)

Round 12:
Daniel, Sic, Houston, Doc (4 premiums)

Round 13 (trade in Stewart):
Daniel, Stewart, Sic, Houston (4 premiums)

Round 14: (trade in Jake Lloyd):
Lloyd, Stewart, Houston, Doc (4 premiums)

A total of 15 premiums playing over these 4 weeks.


Verdict: Following this example you might end up with one extra player by not starting with Houston, but you will have more defenders playing during an easy bye (5 instead of 4 in round 12) than you will in the tougher bye (3 instead of 4 in round 14). The counter to this point is that you end up with Laird or another round 14 bye player who is better than Stewart or likely any other round 12 bye player. I think starting an extra round 13 bye player instead of Houston isn't feasible due to the likelihood of causing a donut given how many players have that bye (which would ruin the point of not starting him).

Anyone have a counter example to this? @Bomber18 As far as I can tell this is only worth 1 extra premium score.

 

[aps1]

I think milera will be a superstar in this game. Sitting on a nice 5yr deal and has amazing skills. The question I have is, is this the year? I'm thinking 2021. This week's game will hopefully tell me more.

Basically my thinking too, wouldn’t be surprised if he jumps up to average in the 90s this year. Just a bit too much uncertainty at the moment, new coach and all, to lock him in.

 

[Rockydunlop]

Basically my thinking too, wouldn’t be surprised if he jumps up to average in the 90s this year. Just a bit too much uncertainty at the moment, new coach and all, to lock him in.

New coach has stated he is playing in defence this season. He could be the go to man instead of Laird. Watching closely this week. Kick ins crucial. Do we know how many (if any) in Marsh 1?

 

[Herbie66]

or just start Houston in the midfield

Ash might survive until Round 11 to link up with him , Starcevich could appear , even Bianco or Rivers could be playing by then

 

[pizza safety]

or just start Houston in the midfield

Ash might survive until Round 11 to link up with him , Starcevich could appear , even Bianco or Rivers could be playing by then

Looks like you likely get the benefit of one non rookie score by not starting him and trading him in, I’m sure he can make that up in average and with the money he saves you.

 

[Herbie66]

interesting Shedda , Milera & SPS are all D/M as well

or start Houston and "hide" him in the mids for his Bye when you are trading that round , haven't finalised my starting team yet so can't work out my trades for that week

 

[Rowsus]

There is a very real risk of getting a zero (rookies being so reliable and all). Guess it depends on what you expect they will average and if that outweighs the risk.

We need @Rowsus to intervene here and go step by step to put some point values on the different scenarios. He is the master of this.

They've announced in one of the Fantasy comps, that Round 11 is going to best 22.
I haven't heard if that is happening in SC, but if it is, it sheds a totally different light on it.
I have a feeling it will happen that way.

 

[aps1]

They've announced in one of the Fantasy comps, that Round 11 is going to best 22.
I haven't heard if that is happening in SC, but if it is, it sheds a totally different light on it.
I have a feeling it will happen that way.

Going on previous years it has been normal 22 in SC with teams from the china game having the bye, so I wouldn’t expect it to differ, but yep wait for confirmation from the powers that be.

 

[Bomber18]

Say you start:
Laird, Sicily and Docherty

about 8-9 rounds in you trade in Caleb Daniel

Round 11:
Daniel, Laird, Sic, Doc (4 premiums)

Round 12 (trade in Houston):
Daniel, Laird, Sic, Houston, Doc (5 premiums)

Round 13:
Daniel, Laird, Sic, Houston (4 premiums)

Round 14: (trade in Jake Lloyd):
Lloyd, Houston, Doc (3 premiums)

A total of 16 premiums playing over these 4 weeks.


Say you start:
Sicily, Houston, Docherty

and about 8-9 rounds in you trade in Caleb Daniel

Round 11:
Daniel, Sic, Doc (3 premiums)

Round 12:
Daniel, Sic, Houston, Doc (4 premiums)

Round 13 (trade in Stewart):
Daniel, Stewart, Sic, Houston (4 premiums)

Round 14: (trade in Jake Lloyd):
Lloyd, Stewart, Houston, Doc (4 premiums)

A total of 15 premiums playing over these 4 weeks.


Verdict: Following this example you might end up with one extra player by not starting with Houston, but you will have more defenders playing during an easy bye (5 instead of 4 in round 12) than you will in the tougher bye (3 instead of 4 in round 14). The counter to this point is that you end up with Laird or another round 14 bye player who is better than Stewart or likely any other round 12 bye player. I think starting an extra round 13 bye player instead of Houston isn't feasible due to the likelihood of causing a donut given how many players have that bye (which would ruin the point of not starting him).

Anyone have a counter example to this? @Bomber18 As far as I can tell this is only worth 1 extra premium score.

This took a while to get my head around but I think I see what happened. You are assuming Team A doesnt trade in a premium during R13, what’s stopping them from doing so? Assuming they also traded in Stewart, then there are two extra premium scores.

Interesting example nonetheless!

 

[pizza safety]

This took a while to get my head around but I think I see what happened. You are assuming Team A doesnt trade in a premium during R13, what’s stopping them from doing so? Assuming they also traded in Stewart, then there are two extra premium scores.

Interesting example nonetheless!

I’m assuming they won’t because you’ll probably only trade in two defenders during the byes and have one premo defender traded in already, and they’ll possibly want Lloyd for the rest of the year ? (5-10 ppg extra after byes) Good point though, this is very complex.

We need stats men to figure this all out.

Also remember that starting Houston as opposed to a more expensive premium defender could be the difference between affording a Macrae or JKelly or not being able to - we need to consider that as well.

 

[Bomber18]

I’m assuming they won’t because you’ll probably only trade in two defenders during the byes and have one premo defender traded in already, and they’ll possibly want Lloyd for the rest of the year ? (5-10 ppg extra after byes) Good point though, this is very complex.

We need stats men to figure this all out.

Also remember that starting Houston as opposed to a more expensive premium defender could be the difference between affording a Macrae or JKelly or not being able to - we need to consider that as well.

You could trade in a premo on another line in R13 and still be one premium upgrade "ahead".

I think the point I wanted to highlight is (which @aps1 has made as well), if you keep Houston up your sleeve, you can make an upgrade in R12 to a bye free player, when otherwise in R12, you would not make an upgrade or maybe be forced to trade in a player with an upcoming bye.

 

[aps1]

I’m assuming they won’t because you’ll probably only trade in two defenders during the byes and have one premo defender traded in already, and they’ll possibly want Lloyd for the rest of the year ? (5-10 ppg extra after byes) Good point though, this is very complex.

We need stats men to figure this all out.

Also remember that starting Houston as opposed to a more expensive premium defender could be the difference between affording a Macrae or JKelly or not being able to - we need to consider that as well.

I’m not sure why you are limiting trades to just defenders. In rd13 couldn’t you trade in a Dangerfield/ Merrett? Same really applies for starting positions.

Edit: What he said...

 

[randomcliche]

I can’t see the difference between picking him and another bye player as long as you have a rookie covering him - I can only see a difference between starting him and trading him in for round 12 and then it’s only worth the difference between a premium score and a rookie score.

But there is a risk that you have no playing rookies in your backline that week, which could cost you 100 points.

I don’t think Houston burns anybody but he’s an underpriced pick who looks very likely to go 95-low 100’s & nobody cheaper than him other than Doch looks as likely to do that as him.

If we work on the assumption that Houston will give us 100 and a rookie will give you 60 in round 11 costing you 40 points. All else being even doesn’t Houston make that up when he plays in the bye week that your alternative starter wouldn’t because his 100 will replace a rookie 60?

I understand you are not guaranteed to have a defensive bench rookie available in round 11 however there is also no guarantee you will have 18 available in whatever bye week that would be.

Fellas it's not straight forward. Consider buying a round 13 permo to start with. In round 13 when you bench say 7 of your 21 premos you incur 3 additional rookie scores. This happens for each of the bye rounds. So I think you incur a penalty in proportion of the difference between rookie premo score differential (40). I just haven't quite nailed what it is. It could be as high as 3/21*40 or as low as 3/7*40 or 9/21*40. Welcome anyone's further thoughts on what the proportionate cost is. (At the moment I'm leaning towards the last calc).

Edit: I note it also rules out the easiest slingshot which is worth another 40pts. Now I've just got look closely because I really had high expectations.

Edit 2. Edit 1 doesn't apply because you could just purchase Ross or Boak or some other wannabe premo that is doing good things.

 

[pizza safety]

You could trade in a premo on another line in R13 and still be one premium upgrade "ahead".

I think the point I wanted to highlight is (which @aps1 has made as well), if you keep Houston up your sleeve, you can make an upgrade in R12 to a bye free player, when otherwise in R12, you would not make an upgrade or maybe be forced to trade in a player with an upcoming bye.

Yeah I'm just not sure of whether not Starting Houston is worthwhile after you replace him with another player, it might affect rookies and premium selections that negate the 80 extra points (complicated)

 

[Dimmawit]

Costs more, has inferior JS and likely will average less. Can't see how that makes him more valuable. Or am I missing something?

Noble arguably higher JS (Rowell managed?). In truth I think their JS is similar. In addition Noble looks to have a fantasy role in a top 4 side...DE% def a watch a see. Played both finals clearly highly rated internally.

The fact that Def is obviously where we will need some rookie load means Noble is gonna be a popular pick. If he confirms this with 80+ this weekend I can't see why he shouldn't leapfrog Roberton in people's plans. D4 would be complelty doable maybe even D3 if you are brave.

Truth be told Rowell and him might both be locks pretty soon. My comment tho was more centred on the fact Noble is Def listed and so options are a bit more scarse (scoring options) at that price down back vs. mids where in theory we've got more premiums and rooks we like to choose from

 

[THCLT]

Noble arguably higher JS (Rowell managed?). In truth I think their JS is similar. In addition Noble looks to have a fantasy role in a top 4 side...DE% def a watch a see. Played both finals clearly highly rated internally.

Any coach concerned about his JS for this season at least should be comforted by that fact. If anything, I think he's very much part of their defensive plan going forward and has improved on his DE%, particularly his kicking. It was only M1 so will watch with a keen interest to see if he can replicate this for M2.

 

[Buddy Starmart]

Is Dylan roberton a must starting as I’ve had to reshape team and he out for now .

 

[Herbie66]

Docherty , Roberton , CJ , Noble , BZT , McAsey / ? , ? ?


Birchall , Lukosious *

Ash * , Hill * , Young , Starcevich * , Williamson , Brander *

Greaves , McLennan , Watson (Fre) , Williams * (WC) , Gould

follow the rookies