Discussion Rookie Discussion
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So potentially two donuts on the midfield bench? Could be trouble early if say Green goes out for Ward, then suddenly you have no midfield bench.... I’m looking at maybe Anderson on the bench where say none of TWatson/Robertson/BWilliams get selected to at least have a heartbeat there but that sort of strategy may not be for everyone. I think Hibberd probably will need 3 or so proper VFL games before being considered for AFL selection given his interrupted preseason...
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I think it’s going to be really important to get the rookies right in a year where cash generation looks slow and upgrades may take a lot longer then previous years. A couple wrong this year will be a lot more damaging then last year is my gut feel. Could be the difference over a couple of weeks between upgrades for teams.
I'm 99% he won't be named so shouldn't have to worry. If he is named without Mackay in the side, you'd think he'd go straight out too. I like TDK but wouldn't pick him unless we get another injury to say Gov/Levi or if Mackay was out longer.
Cameron won't get named Round 1 either I'd say.
Williams I think I'd prefer in defence, so would be an interesting decision between Xerri and a named TDK, if it came to that!
Cameron won't get named Round 1 either I'd say.
Williams I think I'd prefer in defence, so would be an interesting decision between Xerri and a named TDK, if it came to that!
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The Allen selection has no impact on Williams being selected in my opinion. Allen is our 3rd key tall forward and Williams/Vardy the backup ruck.
I think both will play round 1, The intra-club this Friday is important, but I think we've shown our intent to play Brander on the wing through the Marsh series. We selected a near best 22 team and Brander was talked up by the coach whilst playing the majority of both games on the wing. I think he'll get first crack at Masten's old spot.
We also seem very keen to play Williams. The kid really has something about him, and they seem to be giving him every chance to earn that spot. A lot of buzz about him over here over the summer, and couple that with Vardy's average March Series form, and Hickey's complete lack of a run... I think if Williams is fit, and it sounds like he is by what he did today at training... He will get a gig in round 1. I really don't think it matters we are playing against Gawn, Nic Nat looks in great shape and goes well against Gawn, and Williams has an even bigger leap than Nic Nat, so we only need him to compete when relieving in the ruck. The coaches won't expect him to go out there and dominate. Helping his cause is he's the most natural forward out of the 2nd ruck contenders.
Here's how I see our best 22 for next week...
B: Liam Duggan, Tom Barrass, Brad Sheppard
HB: Shannon Hurn, Jeremy McGovern, Lewis Jetta
C: Jarrod Brander, Elliot Yeo, Andrew Gaff
HF: Jamie Cripps, Jack Darling, Jack Petruccelle
F: Oscar Allen, Josh Kennedy, Liam Ryan
Foll: Nic Naitanui, Luke Shuey, Tim Kelly
I/C: Dom Sheed, Bailey Williams, Jack Redden, Mark Hutchings/Jackson Nelson
I think both will play round 1, The intra-club this Friday is important, but I think we've shown our intent to play Brander on the wing through the Marsh series. We selected a near best 22 team and Brander was talked up by the coach whilst playing the majority of both games on the wing. I think he'll get first crack at Masten's old spot.
We also seem very keen to play Williams. The kid really has something about him, and they seem to be giving him every chance to earn that spot. A lot of buzz about him over here over the summer, and couple that with Vardy's average March Series form, and Hickey's complete lack of a run... I think if Williams is fit, and it sounds like he is by what he did today at training... He will get a gig in round 1. I really don't think it matters we are playing against Gawn, Nic Nat looks in great shape and goes well against Gawn, and Williams has an even bigger leap than Nic Nat, so we only need him to compete when relieving in the ruck. The coaches won't expect him to go out there and dominate. Helping his cause is he's the most natural forward out of the 2nd ruck contenders.
Here's how I see our best 22 for next week...
B: Liam Duggan, Tom Barrass, Brad Sheppard
HB: Shannon Hurn, Jeremy McGovern, Lewis Jetta
C: Jarrod Brander, Elliot Yeo, Andrew Gaff
HF: Jamie Cripps, Jack Darling, Jack Petruccelle
F: Oscar Allen, Josh Kennedy, Liam Ryan
Foll: Nic Naitanui, Luke Shuey, Tim Kelly
I/C: Dom Sheed, Bailey Williams, Jack Redden, Mark Hutchings/Jackson Nelson
That's quite a big endorsement on BWilliams! Thanks for sharing your thoughts! It sounds like even if he doesn't quite make it in R1, he's a good chance to crack the squad fairly early so might be worth a R3 spot or a spot on the defensive bench. The intraclub news will be interesting to follow, seems like the preseason games of interest aren't quite over!
It’s a fair point and that’s the risk, in addition to having fewer rookies who are generating (some) cash.
On the other hand I think there can be benefits to this type of approach in the right scenario ... which I think probably includes good JS/cash gen prospects for the rookies you do pick, and very limited appeal in the playing rookies you’d have to use to fill your remaining spots (ie those you don’t really want to pick).
In terms of the scenario you mention, you can use the FD to draw in cover from another line, and the DTP should provide a reinforcement in time (assuming you’ve picked correctly! ?).
That’s interesting re Hibberd, thanks - sounds like he’s further away than I thought.
I think what I was referring to is probably not recommended for most people and/or in normal circumstances, but could be used selectively for those who have a strong sense that their last 1-2 rookies are future deadwood, who just happen to have jagged a game in round 1. In that case I think you can potentially use those spots more productively another way.
On the other hand I think there can be benefits to this type of approach in the right scenario ... which I think probably includes good JS/cash gen prospects for the rookies you do pick, and very limited appeal in the playing rookies you’d have to use to fill your remaining spots (ie those you don’t really want to pick).
In terms of the scenario you mention, you can use the FD to draw in cover from another line, and the DTP should provide a reinforcement in time (assuming you’ve picked correctly! ?).
That’s interesting re Hibberd, thanks - sounds like he’s further away than I thought.
I think what I was referring to is probably not recommended for most people and/or in normal circumstances, but could be used selectively for those who have a strong sense that their last 1-2 rookies are future deadwood, who just happen to have jagged a game in round 1. In that case I think you can potentially use those spots more productively another way.
What do you think are the implications of this in terms of approach? I was thinking:
- don’t overpay for premiums without a good reason,
- perhaps analyze the draw/potential tags more in identifying upgrade targets,
- consider mid pricers more seriously, especially those who could perform at keeper level and/or act as a good pinch hitter
- use corrective trades more actively to ensure you have the right rookies
- jump on almost any decent downgrade target, especially if the pipeline looks thin (it might actually be okay if they simply don’t play round 1)
- err more on squeezing dollars out of each rookie, rather than taking day 80% of their cash gen quickly and moving on to the next one.
Some of the above is obviously a balancing act (eg the last two points) because they conflict somewhat.
Before the preseason started, my plan was to go full GnR to help ensure that I picked every good starting rookie - which is a strategic nuance I hadn’t appreciated until last season.
In a shallow rookie year it will be more important to get on the good rookies (increasing the potential of the rookie heavy GnR approach) but if there simply aren’t enough half decent rookies playing, then rookie number 18-20 may not be worth selecting anyway.
- don’t overpay for premiums without a good reason,
- perhaps analyze the draw/potential tags more in identifying upgrade targets,
- consider mid pricers more seriously, especially those who could perform at keeper level and/or act as a good pinch hitter
- use corrective trades more actively to ensure you have the right rookies
- jump on almost any decent downgrade target, especially if the pipeline looks thin (it might actually be okay if they simply don’t play round 1)
- err more on squeezing dollars out of each rookie, rather than taking day 80% of their cash gen quickly and moving on to the next one.
Some of the above is obviously a balancing act (eg the last two points) because they conflict somewhat.
Before the preseason started, my plan was to go full GnR to help ensure that I picked every good starting rookie - which is a strategic nuance I hadn’t appreciated until last season.
In a shallow rookie year it will be more important to get on the good rookies (increasing the potential of the rookie heavy GnR approach) but if there simply aren’t enough half decent rookies playing, then rookie number 18-20 may not be worth selecting anyway.
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I think you’ve covered it pretty well and let’s be honest, this is true for each season but I think we may need to be a little more vigilant on how we go about executing these things this year. Corrective trades and flexibility will be importantly early, my current squad leaves me with $400 in the kitty, at the moment I do have a lot of flexibility in the rookies I’ve fielded to go sub $200k but if I need to get up to someone I’m screwed. I’ll change this no doubt. Maybe it’s the player we usually slot in that D6 M8 F6 position that won’t be a top Uber premium player but a lower grade keeper. It’s hard to know but I’d keep a lot of what you’ve posted forefront throughout the season.
