Longmuir sees him as Jayden Stephenson mould coming from the pies. Trading him in is more for his 100 score to make his cash generation higher even if he has 2 x 30 games will still be an avg of 53.3 at end of rd3. If this is correct can be a rough example.
If Sturt gets a 30 in rd2+3 he will rise more than that example projection for a rookie priced at that avg of 50 meaning Sturt would b at 65 avg after 2 and 53 avg after 3.
Thanks for posting, that’s interesting and helpful.
The quicker price move helps at the margin, although in these examples the two largely line back up by round 5 ($214k vs $205k), but King has still only made $80-90k - ie well short of what we would be hoping for. He would likely be held much longer, so his ongoing scoring level would be quite important.
Obviously there’s no 100 thrown in there, but as you say, if Sturt goes 30, 30, he could be tracking close to a 50 rolling average after 3 rounds (and would then still have the 30s to keep rolling through, once the 100 drops out).
Worth flagging that Sturt scored 39 and 29 in the Marsh series from close to full game time (TOG of 77% and 76%).
I’ll likely try to do some maths myself, but my sense is that if you didn’t like Sturt before this, trading him in for his 100 may still not be worth it, unless you just have no better use for that trade next week.