Analysis 2024 AFL SC: Rolling Perfect Team [Post #242 onwards]

Beg2Differ

Beg2Differ

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Over the break I have been developing my linear programming skills to the point that I now believe I can provide a rolling perfect team based on the outcomes of the season to date. I thought it would make for an interesting academic exercise given the likelihood of somebody actually correctly making the necessary decisions is totally unrealistic.

I don't know how long I will be able to keep it going as the deeper into the season you go the longer the model takes to solve and there is a chance my ambition will exceed my ability in this regard (story of my supercoach life actually) however I thought it was worth at least setting out on the journey to see how it goes.

Finally I would like to acknowledge the assistance Stevedward has given me in developing some of this knowledge. Unfortunately it appears Steve is no longer a member of this site.

The next few posts will displays a couple of variations on this theme over the first couple of rounds.
 
Beg2Differ

Beg2Differ

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The first version is the highest score that could have been achieved over the first 2 rounds. I believe that score to be 5999 made up of the following 2 rounds. Note that in this version there is no restriction about picking cheap non-playing players which obvioulsy could be any one of a number of players. Note the colours represent the trades out (red) and in (green).

1592218102369.png
 
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Beg2Differ

Beg2Differ

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This version is the highest score achievable over the first 2 rounds where it only takes into account players that played both rounds with the exception of R3. This intended to be a bit more realistically achievable team but really only just. For example not sure trading Grundy to Gawn was an option many would have considered.

Furthermore there is a theoretical possibility that this score could be exceeded by a team featuring a high scoring player in round 1 that was injured in round 2. Sam Sturt for example. I will need to given this a bit of thought.

1592219899265.png
 
Beg2Differ

Beg2Differ

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This version shows the maximum score that could have been achieved in each round independently assuming you were willing to select non playing cheap bench players. Note that I did post max score round 1 team after round 1 however that team ended up being slightly wrong (I have learnt a bit more since then).

1592220720240.png
 
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Beg2Differ

Beg2Differ

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That will be it for the moment however if anybody can think of another scenario they thing would be interesting to look at then post it and I will see what I can do.

Now I will go and have a look if there is anything I can do to salvage my rabble of a Supercoach team.
 
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frosty1

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That "no trades scenario".....Fair to say not many of those were among the players I'd been considering.....will be interesting to see how much it tends towards the expected top scorers over the season.

And it's a fantastic idea and a really interesting challenge. Good stuff!
 
Beg2Differ

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frosty1 said:
That "no trades scenario".....Fair to say not many of those were among the players I'd been considering.....will be interesting to see how much it tends towards the expected top scorers over the season.

And it's a fantastic idea and a really interesting challenge. Good stuff!
Click to expand...
In the no trades scenario I think you will find it will stay pretty midpriced with a handful of expensive picks and maybe a few of the best scoring rookies. It won’t be possible to get too many of the highest scorers because they are likely to have started with too high a price tag. It will contain all the break out players and successful discount premos.

I think the trading option will likely tend towards the best scoring players and starting the best rookies.
 
Beg2Differ

Beg2Differ

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Next instalment of the rolling perfect team.
  • Total score is 11280 (avg 2820) compared to the current leader at 9119 (avg 2280)
  • Three cheap rookies still survive from round 1.
  • Two have not played and William Hamill has played but his score hasn't been required so he could really be anybody at or below his price.
  • Trades have still been largely trading premos in and out and I have feeling that will continue. In a normal season the 30 total trade limit across 23 rounds will eventually limit that sort of trading however in a 17 rounds scenario then possible not.
  • I might try and think up some other limitations around premo trading to determine a more realistically achievable score however the problem with that is that it will become pretty subjective.
1593423085723.png
 
Beg2Differ

Beg2Differ

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The highest score achievable in round 5 was 3149 and a team and trades that would have got you there is as follows. This compares to the highest actual score for the round of 2350.

Note that the following team is the result of 2 separate runs of the model. The first seeks to maximise the score for round 5 and the second adds that score as a constraint for round 5 and the maximises the total score. Therefore the following team is not only has the highest possible score for round 5, it is also the highest possible total score achievable for a team with that score for round 5.

1594173389465.png
 
Darkie

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#18
Beg2Differ said:
The highest score achievable in round 5 was 3149 and a team and trades that would have got you there is as follows. This compares to the highest actual score for the round of 2350.

Note that the following team is the result of 2 separate runs of the model. The first seeks to maximise the score for round 5 and the second adds that score as a constraint for round 5 and the maximises the total score. Therefore the following team is not only has the highest possible score for round 5, it is also the highest possible total score achievable for a team with that score for round 5.

View attachment 18593
Click to expand...
Interesting ... how long does this take to run?!
 
Beg2Differ

Beg2Differ

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Darkie said:
Interesting ... how long does this take to run?!
Click to expand...
It increases quite a bit for each round added. This week it took about 20 mins up from about 8 mins the week before. It will quite quickly get to a point where I will have to set it to run overnight.

I did a test run on 2019 for all 23 rounds and it took about 2 days to find a solution.
 
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