Strategy Round 8: Trades

[Herbie66]

Now that we know the fixture for the next few rounds, plus the added trades I'll likely go:
Outs- Ceglar and C Taylor
Ins- Greenwood and Bailey Smith

Certainly gives me a sexy looking lower half of my team:
View attachment 19069
Could go Macrae instead of Greenwood but I'm still dirty on myself for backing out of starting Greenwood when I was keen

that sure is one impressive forward line , 3-4 of the preseason forward line breakout contenders plus 2 of the Big 3 and Rankine on the bench ?

Have completely forgotten about Dusty in my plans (so far)

I am currently running :-

Rankine , Bazlenka , Greene , Butler , Ceglar , TJL with Whitfield & D Smith (& Heeney) in my mids

Probably explains a lot

 

[Darkie]

Torn about who to trade out for a FWD premium this week, deciding between King, Fort and Taylor. King has the lowest B/E, and has solid J/S, but isn't likely to score particularly highly. Taylor is obviously very up and down, not one to rely on for an F6. Fort has been a reasonable scorer / cash generator, but isn't likely to make any more money.

Thoughts?

Taylor has actually been a decent scorer ex his injury game, and should make decent cash if he maintains his average ex injury in the low 70s.

King looks basically done to me - fairly reliable as a 50s scorer, but he's made his cash ex a spike game.

Fort looks in between the two to me in overall appeal.

Byes would be one factor to consider, but note that all of them will have one at some point ... just a question of whether you'll still own them then.

 

[Darkie]

I don’t think trading out a player averaging 98 who’s about to bottom out in price is probably the best play.

Maybe target more pod upgrades rather than the typical ones to climb. E.g Rampe over Bailey Smith this week.

Disclaimer this is my first full season but from what I’ve read from more experienced coaches - trading out premos never seems to end well. The premo about to leak serious cash seems to be the only time it’s worth thinking about.

I think this is good advice @Diabolical.

Cripps at under $500k is something that would have some non owners wetting their pants ... ie I reckon I'd be very keen to bring him straight in post bye if I didn't have him already.

If his injury hinders him on an ongoing basis, I think it's a win for you, but otherwise I think his price not being that high, especially for a player of Cripps quality, argues against it.

 

[freowho]

English is $600k

Sorry. Had a brain fade. That makes him more viable.

 

[Manikato1]

Taylor has actually been a decent scorer ex his injury game, and should make decent cash if he maintains his average ex injury in the low 70s.

King looks basically done to me - fairly reliable as a 50s scorer, but he's made his cash ex a spike game.

Fort looks in between the two to me in overall appeal.

Byes would be one factor to consider, but note that all of them will have one at some point ... just a question of whether you'll still own them then.

I think Taylor has hit his plateau. If you are holding him for cash generation then you are really thinking that he can bag a 90-100 game in the next two or three weeks. If he scores a 60-70 this week he will make no money or maybe even lose a little. But a consistent 70 from a rookie is a handy score so you just want the points and are less interested in the cash you could make a case to keep him.

 

[THCLT]

Was really wanting to go Pittonet to Gawn this week. Is it madness to go Pittonet to English, save the $$$, Get English's price increase and then go English to Gawn in a few weeks?

English's double ton looks like a safe profit but at $700k a poor score could easily nullify that double ton and he goes backwards at a faster rate than Gawn.

English is $600k

Sorry. Had a brain fade. That makes him more viable.

Depends on how much profit you're expecting from the English trade, in say 3 rounds.
R8 T English (WBD) $600,100 BE 48
Scores of 100,100,100: R11 $604,800 BE 158
Scores of 110,110,110: R11 $626,500 BE 150
Scores of 120,120,120: R11 $648,200 BE 143

Some more variation in scores...
Scores of 100,110,120: R11 $620,900 BE 137
Scores of 120,110,100: R11 $632,100 BE 164
Scores of 110,100,120: R11 $623,300 BE 148

And if we take his season's low (63), 2nd high (145) and average (119)
Scores of 63,119,145: R11 $601,800 BE 92
Scores of 145,119,63: R11 $647,700 BE 201
Scores of 119,63,145: R11 $615,200 BE 156

In short, in order for him to make any significant profit, he needs to score 100's in his next 2 games...The bigger the ton, the higher his price will climb. If you're confident that he can do this against Witts & Soldo then go for it.

With that says, I feel that he has about $50K of growth max based on what he's shown excluding the 204 outlier.

All the best with your decision.

 

[Kidult]

Depends on how much profit you're expecting from the English trade, in say 3 rounds.
R8 T English (WBD) $600,100 BE 48
Scores of 100,100,100: R11 $604,800 BE 158
Scores of 110,110,110: R11 $626,500 BE 150
Scores of 120,120,120: R11 $648,200 BE 143

Some more variation in scores...
Scores of 100,110,120: R11 $620,900 BE 137
Scores of 120,110,100: R11 $632,100 BE 164
Scores of 110,100,120: R11 $623,300 BE 148

And if we take his season's low (63), 2nd high (145) and average (119)
Scores of 63,119,145: R11 $601,800 BE 92
Scores of 145,119,63: R11 $647,700 BE 201
Scores of 119,63,145: R11 $615,200 BE 156

In short, in order for him to make any significant profit, he needs to score 100's in his next 2 games...The bigger the ton, the higher his price will climb. If you're confident that he can do this against Witts & Soldo then go for it.

With that says, I feel that he has about $50K of growth max based on what he's shown excluding the 204 outlier.

All the best with your decision.

Yeh to me it is the actual 5 rounds coming up for me taking him. GCS, Tigers, Port, Lions and Crows. Probably 3/5 are good around the ground but after English having 22,22,17 and 22 Disposals in the last 4 and whopping 17 CP last week there is much more growth there.

 

[gutsroy]

In case not yet posted, this is a good visualization, think from reddit originally:

 

[TigerTime]

Not liking Rankine on the bench but u probably got that looped in because of the Thursday game. Hope you can fit one in the midfield if he goes well again.

Yeah I'll swing Simpkin into the middle and Budarick to the fwd bench

 

[TigerTime]

that sure is one impressive forward line , 3-4 of the preseason forward line breakout contenders plus 2 of the Big 3 and Rankine on the bench ?

Have completely forgotten about Dusty in my plans (so far)

I am currently running :-

Rankine , Bazlenka , Greene , Butler , Ceglar , TJL with Whitfield & D Smith (& Heeney) in my mids

Probably explains a lot

Thanks Herbie. The rest of my team is nowhere near as impressive unfortunately. I started with TJL and Ceglar so I guess I've traded rather hard in the forward line to get it to that point.
Unlucky with Heeney... Had been durable until now

 

[NT.Thunder]

In case not yet posted, this is a good visualization, think from reddit originally:
View attachment 19070

Awesome table, thanks.

So will teams need to be announced for the next round potentially before they've played games in the previous round? How's that going to work?

 

[Kidult]

Awesome table, thanks.

So will teams need to be announced for the next round potentially before they've played games in the previous round? How's that going to work?

Probably have to avoid using any trades on the Wednesday games. Although with 3 per bye round now it won't hurt using one. Probably use the third trade each week to cull a rookie early to free up some cash for the early game upgrades. Slingshot the very high BE premo for a fallen injury score premo that has bottomed out as it probably won't hurt now to use 2 of those extra 4 trades.

 

[I am Cursed :(]

I have been savaged of late... with very few rookies to consider, it's mid price madness for me.. Boom or bust

Devon Smith to Bailey Smith
Noble to Houston

 

[Vicwood]

Is this the time to do something different and move on Patrick Cripps?

5th highest owned midfielder - 53.3% of teams.
Ranked 37th midfielder on averages - 98.6
Breakeven - 168

I was planning to upgrade two rookies to Smith & Trac. However, I could create a POD by moving out Cripps instead of a rookie. It means an extra rookie on field now but he has a bye in two weeks. It would also mean with my bank that I could bring in 4 premiums over the next two weeks - Probably targeting Oliver & Merrett/Shiel who won’t have byes after Trac & Smith but if I kept Cripps I would most likely only get 3.

So the way I see it, it could be a break even over the next few weeks. However, if he doesn’t find form I have created a positive POD by not having him.

Is this a risk work taking to try and climb a few spots from my 11k ranking?

Double upgrade in consecutive weeks sound good to me.

 

[Zim^zuM]

In case not yet posted, this is a good visualization, think from reddit originally:
View attachment 19070

I dont get the point of this. Yes they cram in 4 rounds in 3 weeks but they create the need for round 18. Killing the players for what?

 

[Bermi]

I dont get the point of this. Yes they cram in 4 rounds in 3 weeks but they create the need for round 18. Killing the players for what?

Yeah, sounds rough, but money is probably the main reason. It's up to the teams to manage the players though.
I personally think the AFL are doing a good job organising the games through this Covid-19.

 

[Bermi]

Is Dan Houston an option? Has scored 3 x100's in last 3 games , $481,000.

I'm considering trading Houston in mainly because I have to fix my defence, as it has too many Rookies (I will have to miss out on B Smith, hmmm). I'm leaning to D/M Houston because I can put D/M Rivers in the midfield, might be handy later through the Byes and I don't have any PTA players, again balancing my team to help it during the Byes.
As mentioned, yes he may go back to defence, but who knows? Houston trained preseason with the midfield, so I expect him to play mainly midfield.

 

[jel]

I dont get the point of this. Yes they cram in 4 rounds in 3 weeks but they create the need for round 18. Killing the players for what?

If Rd13 - Rd18 are also compressed, they can save 1 or 2 weeks and get the season over with quicker.
I imagine they would be concerned about losing the Qld hub.

 

[MC's Mix]

I dont get the point of this. Yes they cram in 4 rounds in 3 weeks but they create the need for round 18. Killing the players for what?

I think the main concern was around 'banking' games to allow for a (seemingly inevitable) period of isolation/quarantining.
In this case it might allow some flexibility for players to return home to see their families briefly, assuming the family had been quarantined in the lead-up.
I've heard some of the Dees players' wives/families have gone to Queensland to quarantine, ready for when Melbourne arrived. I'm sure clubs will be trying to facilitate this as much as possible.

 

[Matt]

Depending on team announcements

C Taylor - > Bazlenka
Pittonet - > ???

Who's Bazlenka? I've seen it a few times & have no idea who that is