Discussion 2021: Strategy, Team & Player Discussions

[freowho]

I always avoid overpaying where possible so don't consider myself in the camp of SCers who are willing to start the dearest players on each line, but I am always happy to pontificate on this subject as it is one of my favouites.

I think an example like 2014 Danger is pretty much a wash. I wouldn't start him if I knew that was the result, but it was perfectly ok if you did. When the rookies are good and cash is flowing then we are all able to finish teams and it doesn't make a huge difference in the end.

I am expecting (and hoping) that next year cash is hard to come by and things play out a little differently than we are used to, so hopefully getting the most out of every dollar at the start is rewarded.

I predict Danger to go 100ish with a pretty high variance and be available cheap at some point. Lloyd is so consistent that he seems less likely to reward you for not picking him but I am still unlikely to start anyone at that price who I don't regularly captain. Those picks are more about who else is available on the line and if you have cash spare but I am always grumpy if I back myself into the corner of picking them.

Rucks are the obvious ones where there has to be a viable option to be able to successfully avoid the expensive guys but there is no way I will shell out for Gawn. Or Neale. Those two are the ones who normally paying up is worth it (rucks and C choices) but I just think this year was too strange and they outperformed their normal best by too much to make them viable.

Thanks stephen.
I generally have the same thoughts but I think I'm applying this policy too stringently and it's hurting me. I know that starting all the highest priced players can't be a good thing but I'm trying to work out when to stick to the plan and when to bend. My first thought is no way will I start Neale, Gawn and Lloyd and most of the top 10 are overpriced because of the unusual year but there is also no way you're going to trade them all in if they are good picks again.

 

[BigRuss]

Thanks stephen.
I generally have the same thoughts but I think I'm applying this policy too stringently and it's hurting me. I know that starting all the highest priced players can't be a good thing but I'm trying to work out when to stick to the plan and when to bend. My first thought is no way will I start Neale, Gawn and Lloyd and most of the top 10 are overpriced because of the unusual year but there is also no way you're going to trade them all in if they are good picks again.

That’s the game at its essence. Picking the right ones is something the really good coaches do consistently I think.

 

[stephen]

Thanks stephen.
I generally have the same thoughts but I think I'm applying this policy too stringently and it's hurting me. I know that starting all the highest priced players can't be a good thing but I'm trying to work out when to stick to the plan and when to bend. My first thought is no way will I start Neale, Gawn and Lloyd and most of the top 10 are overpriced because of the unusual year but there is also no way you're going to trade them all in if they are good picks again.

I think the key with the strategy is not being too stubborn. You know a player like Lloyd is going to have to come in at some point so if he doesn't drop in price you have to be willing to suck it up and pay the price. I think people get too hung up on saying you can't trade expensive players in. You just have to plan for it. Once you know how cash gen is looking you should have an idea of how many players you can afford to pay a premium for.

Of the top 10 on ave this year I think Grundy and Macrae are pretty much locks for next year, and I would be happy enough to start Oliver or Bont if the money was lying around.

In the next 10, Titch is a lock and Fyfe and J Kelly are strong maybes depending on how fit they are looking.

On top of those there is Whitfield, Dunkley, Laird and Heeney who I would describe as very safe top 10s for their spot who are not overpriced. Can probably include Marshall in that if he is R/F.

Then there are fairly low-risk value picks like Cripps and Docherty

I think you still need to pick a core of 'safe' players to build your gambles around but usually it is possible to do that without picking the real overpriced ones.

 

[Herbie66]

Just threw something together for the sake of it (dependent on positions)

D: Lloyd , Laird , Whitfield

D4: Milera/Newman depending on price

M: Macrae , Mitchell , Fyfe , Cripps

M5: Rowell , Cunnington , Prestia , Edwards , Davies-Uniacke , Green , Heppell , Hately depending on price

R: Grundy , Marshall

F: Dunkley , Martin , Heeney

F4: Curnow , Franklin , McDonald , Thomas , Brown , Daniher , Ziebell , Patton depending on price

 

[50 shades of Wade]

Is Greenwood an option next year

 

[WindyHillWizard]

Is Greenwood an option next year

Personally I think it depends on three factors:
1. Is he a M/F or just a Mid?
2. Length of games (shorter games definitely helped him this year)
3. Whether he is still allowed by the coach to hunt the ball or will he be a battering ram for Rowell.

 

[pizza safety]

Is Greenwood an option next year

Personally I think it depends on three factors:
1. Is he a M/F or just a Mid?
2. Length of games (shorter games definitely helped him this year)
3. Whether he is still allowed by the coach to hunt the ball or will he be a battering ram for Rowell.

He will be a Mid only next year.

Although I thought his newness to the game meant he still had upside this year despite his older age, I do think that a spike year at his age makes him overpriced.

He’s also always had very low time on ground and benefitted massively from the shorter quarters.

The scaling in shorter games also suited his very high CP rate and his general high impact from low disposals

I rated him highly this year as a forward pick but don’t think he’s a good pick next year as a mid at a much higher price

 

[pizza safety]

I think the key with the strategy is not being too stubborn. You know a player like Lloyd is going to have to come in at some point so if he doesn't drop in price you have to be willing to suck it up and pay the price. I think people get too hung up on saying you can't trade expensive players in. You just have to plan for it. Once you know how cash gen is looking you should have an idea of how many players you can afford to pay a premium for.

Of the top 10 on ave this year I think Grundy and Macrae are pretty much locks for next year, and I would be happy enough to start Oliver or Bont if the money was lying around.

In the next 10, Titch is a lock and Fyfe and J Kelly are strong maybes depending on how fit they are looking.

On top of those there is Whitfield, Dunkley, Laird and Heeney who I would describe as very safe top 10s for their spot who are not overpriced. Can probably include Marshall in that if he is R/F.

Then there are fairly low-risk value picks like Cripps and Docherty

I think you still need to pick a core of 'safe' players to build your gambles around but usually it is possible to do that without picking the real overpriced ones.

My thinking is don’t start Neale or Lloyd, but Gawn might be worth starting because you’ll likely have to get him at some stage. He will also be very overpriced but will likely be the hardest of the 3 to get in.

I reckon Laird is locked for me, along with Titch, Cripps, Grundy, Dunkley and Marshall

 

[Under The Dome]

My thinking is don’t start Neale or Lloyd, but Gawn might be worth starting because you’ll likely have to get him at some stage. He will also be very overpriced but will likely be the hardest of the 3 to get in.

I reckon Laird is locked for me, along with Titch, Cripps, Grundy, Dunkley and Marshall

Yeh Gawn is the only one I would pay up for. Still think the gap will be 20ppg under Gawndy.

 

[Under The Dome]

Yeh Gawn is the only one I would pay up for. Still think the gap will be 20ppg under Gawndy.

Paying overs for someone you can VC/C is my priority.

 

[Backbone]

My thinking at this stage

Backs Ryan Whitfield laird Stewart
Mids neale Macrae Cripps yeo Rowell
Rucks grundy Rob
Forwards danger/Dunkley Marshall butters buddy

Keen for some pods and potential underpriced guns whilst still having enough potential to improve on their averages

 

[GrainFedBeef]

My thinking is don’t start Neale or Lloyd, but Gawn might be worth starting because you’ll likely have to get him at some stage. He will also be very overpriced but will likely be the hardest of the 3 to get in.

I reckon Laird is locked for me, along with Titch, Cripps, Grundy, Dunkley and Marshall

Cripps is interesting. Disapppointing year and didn't seem to get as much outside ball. Shoulder impact throughout the year (three time through the year had issues and hurt it badly in last round) in light patches clearly too away from his performance. If he is priced at $525k it would be hard to overlook him.

 

[freowho]

Cripps is interesting. Disapppointing year and didn't seem to get as much outside ball. Shoulder impact throughout the year (three time through the year had issues and hurt it badly in last round) in light patches clearly too away from his performance. If he is priced at $525k it would be hard to overlook him.

Have we seen his best? 119. I think @Rowsus did some analysis suggesting once players fall from a high level they rarely get back to that level. He regularly seems to play through injury rather than miss games. If he gets back to 115 he presents a little bit of value but that might be his best case scenario. Would he hurt you if you didn't have him?

 

[Connoisseur]

T Stewart:


2019-2020: 98.94 from 36 (5/36 below 80, 18/36 below 100, 6/36 120+)
Excluding RD4 2020: 101.26 from 35 (4/35 below 100, 17/35 below 100, 6/35 120+)




27 of 35 matches with 20+ disposals and 5+ marks for 104.11 (low of 78 and a high of 145, 2/27 below 80, 12/27 below 100, 6/27 120+)
5/35 below 20 disposals for 86.8 (2/5 below 80, 4/5 below 100)

 

[Darkie]

T Stewart:
View attachment 21976

2019-2020: 98.94 from 36 (5/36 below 80, 18/36 below 100, 6/36 120+)
Excluding RD4 2020: 101.26 from 35 (4/35 below 100, 17/35 below 100, 6/35 120+)

View attachment 21977
View attachment 21978

27 of 35 matches with 20+ disposals and 5+ marks for 104.11 (low of 78 and a high of 145, 2/27 below 80, 12/27 below 100, 6/27 120+)
5/35 below 20 disposals for 86.8 (2/5 below 80, 4/5 below 100)

Looks a lock to me. I noticed last night he hadn’t been mentioned as much as I expected .

 

[THCLT]

I'm keeping my $10M under lock & key for now.

 

[pizza safety]

Cripps is interesting. Disapppointing year and didn't seem to get as much outside ball. Shoulder impact throughout the year (three time through the year had issues and hurt it badly in last round) in light patches clearly too away from his performance. If he is priced at $525k it would be hard to overlook him.

I think he’s just going to be so underpriced based on what he can produce that I see him as far too good to pass up as a starting pick. It might not work and he might be cooked for a while longer but I reckon it’s worth a shot. It would probably take an awful preseason for me to do otherwise.

He’s also someone who has historically had a really high time on ground and not been as elite for points per minute as some other players and I reckon the shorter quarters hurt his scoring.

I’m also thinking I’ll start Sam Walsh as a pick I reckon will go 110+

 

[Leroy]

I've seen Rowell a few times in people's (early) plans. What do people reasonably expect of a 19yo who has played 5 games @ 102 in his first season?

I think given the injury and likely attention that will come his way you'd be stoked with 20/105. But he might cost nearly $550k to get those numbers which just seems a bit wasteful of those precious starting funds.

 

[Beg2Differ]

I think he’s just going to be so underpriced based on what he can produce that I see him as far too good to pass up as a starting pick. It might not work and he might be cooked for a while longer but I reckon it’s worth a shot. It would probably take an awful preseason for me to do otherwise.

He’s also someone who has historically had a really high time on ground and not been as elite for points per minute as some other players and I reckon the shorter quarters hurt his scoring.

I’m also thinking I’ll start Sam Walsh as a pick I reckon will go 110+

I hope I am wrong however I worry that we might look at Cripps in a few years and ask whether the game has gone past him. I don’t think he will be able to continue to play the inside mid role like he currently does as he ages because his size and wear and tear will reduce his mobility and make him easy to stop. He is also as slow as treacle and that won’t get any better and will become a bigger problem as a mid. I think we are already seeing a bit of that.

I think he will need to find another position where he can contribute and that will be a less SC friendly role. I can see him playing as a key forward however he will need to improve his goal kicking significantly to do that. I wonder how he would go as CHB.

I won’t be necessarily be jumping on him next year even if he does appear to represent value.

 

[pizza safety]

I hope I am wrong however I worry that we might look at Cripps in a few years and ask whether the game has gone past him. I don’t think he will be able to continue to play the inside mid role like he currently does as he ages because his size and wear and tear will reduce his mobility and make him easy to stop. He is also as slow as treacle and that won’t get any better and will become a bigger problem as a mid. I think we are already seeing a bit of that.

I think he will need to find another position where he can contribute and that will be a less SC friendly role. I can see him playing as a key forward however he will need to improve his goal kicking significantly to do that. I wonder how he would go as CHB.

I won’t be necessarily be jumping on him next year even if he does appear to represent value.

I’m not sure if we can know any of that for sure, even though it’s possible. Why do you think his size means he’ll be broken down? JPK, Bont, Fyfe and Danger are also huge. His physical style probably isn’t the best for his body but physical big bodied players don’t usually start declining early. I think smaller inside mids have bigger issues with longevity