Analysis BBL|10 Player's Price & Break Even Projections by TAILS

[Tails]

Almost time to get this party started for another season ....

After the apparent success of last years thread I'm prepared to go around again ...

- I learned a lot from doing so"publicly" in this particular sport last year .... and hopefully @THCLT will continue to assist me in the "background" with some finer details people don't see ....

- Am also toying with the idea of providing an updated top 20 teams at the completion of each round ... got a template set up and ready to go .... but will see how much time it adds (should be fine) ....

 

[Tails]

What would greatly assist me this year is anyone with a "SC Gold" subscription posting me the updated BE's for a handful of players at the completion of each round (ASAP) ....

- Why .... from that small sample size I can determine the new MN pretty accurately for each upcoming round in literally minutes, apply it and calculate the new BE for every player in a matter of seconds and then subsequently post them all in one hit for us all to use before the commencement of the next round ...

- The quicker the better as it will save me time and effort to spend on say the top "20 teams" each week ...

- Only need one or two dedicated people to do this ... please PM me if you're willing to provide this info (you'll be appropriately acknowledged for doing so in my updates unless you specifically request not to be)

 

[Tails]

Round 1 / Game 1 update (#1):

- Please note that the "BE proj" and "Price Proj" figures are forward looking before the start of next round ...
- I will provide another update before the start of the next round with the "actual" BE's for all teams once the new MN is determined ...
- No X factor players were used this game ...

 

[Beg2Differ]

Well Mr Short gives us a nice little conundrum now with a massive BE particular when you consider the cash generating alternatives of David and Ingram.

Suspect cash gen will be more important this year after round 3 with so few DGRs.

 

[Tails]

Well Mr Short gives us a nice little conundrum now with a massive BE particular when you consider the cash generating alternatives of David and Ingram.

Suspect cash gen will be more important this year after round 3 with so few DGRs.

Sir Khan .... so tempting .... take the initial loss and move on whilst keeping some MELS players ...

 

[Darkie]

This is fantastic @Tails, thanks very much for putting this together. Even for anyone with SC Gold, I reckon this is a very helpful format (ie better than Gold).

It looks like we have some fairly big price moves coming up for certain players, close to $20k in some cases. Might be a word of warning for those of us spending every last dollar in our R2 trade planning!

 

[Herbie66]

So I suspect Jacks will be close to $ 100k after Round 2 unless he smashes out both games......ouch

 

[jel]

Thanks @Tails , excellent intel.

A couple of Q's.
1. Are the formulas for BBL SC the same as AFL SC (except a different MN)
2. In a DGR, are the scores added and used as 1 score for the Rd, or is BE & price worked out for each game?

 

[Tails]

Thanks @Tails , excellent intel.

A couple of Q's.
1. Are the formulas for BBL SC the same as AFL SC (except a different MN)
2. In a DGR, are the scores added and used as 1 score for the Rd, or is BE & price worked out for each game?

1. Yes the same formula ... only difference is when the price changes start (ie. after 1 or 2 games played)

2. I separate the scores in my spreadsheet as you'll soon see where as SC don't which I find annoying

- There is only one price change at the end of the round so the BE is "approximately" what is required from each game for a player to maintain their current price (this is where it can get confusing).

- Take Maxwell for example his DGR BE for this round is 131 but he is priced to average 65 (his SGR BE).

- In my spreadsheet the new projection won't be totally accurate until the completion of the 2nd DGR game ....

Hope that make sense .... you'll see how it works in the next two days anyway ...

 

[jel]

1. Yes the same formula ... only difference is when the price changes start (ie. after 1 or 2 games played)

2. I separate the scores in my spreadsheet as you'll soon see where as SC don't which I find annoying

- There is only one price change at the end of the round so the BE is "approximately" what is required from each game for a player to maintain their current price (this is where it can get confusing).

- Take Maxwell for example his DGR BE for this round is 131 but he is priced to average 65 (his SGR BE).

- In my spreadsheet the new projection won't be totally accurate until the completion of the 2nd DGR game ....

Hope that make sense .... you'll see how it works in the next two days anyway ...

Does that mean on the SC site, they are effectively doubling the BE and projected score for players in a DGR?
It kind of looks that way looking at the Stars players.

Actually, comparing 2 equally priced players ie Edwards & Hussain, both $62,500, Edwards BE is 22 while Hussain is 44, which looks like they are.

Tks for helping me figure this out.

 

[Tails]

Does that mean on the SC site, they are effectively doubling the BE and projected score for players in a DGR?
It kind of looks that way looking at the Stars players.

Actually, comparing 2 equally priced players ie Edwards & Hussain, both $62,500, Edwards BE is 22 while Hussain is 44, which looks like they are.

Tks for helping me figure this out.

Yep ... that is what they are indeed doing .....

 

[Tails]

Round 1 / Game 2 update (#2):

Notes:
- MELS players have another game to play yet so price changes will change yet again because of the DGR !!
- So this is not a "true" reflection yet until the next game is completed ... please don't do any trades based on that teams predictions just yet ..
- No X factor players were used this game ...

 

[Herbie66]

I guess if NCN makes more cash than Fletcher & Zampa both lose I should still be ok to do my 3 preferred trades.

 

[Tails]

I guess if NCN makes more cash than Fletcher & Zampa both lose I should still be ok to do my 3 preferred trades.

I had NCN pegged as a trade out next round .... but he looked so good tonight that I might have just thrown that idea out the window ...

 

[Herbie66]

I had NCN pegged as a trade out next round .... but he looked so good tonight that I might have just thrown that idea out the window ...

Exactly

I might have to trade out Jacks instead even with a DGR 😀

Maxwell or Hussain (not relevant) are my other Star options.

Will need to make some quick decisions , Round finishes tomorrow night.

Be interesting to see NCN price and BE after tomorrow's game.

 

[Herbie66]

I had NCN pegged as a trade out next round .... but he looked so good tonight that I might have just thrown that idea out the window ...

My other option would be to remove Renshaw to a cheapie tomorrow then do the reverse trade for Round 2 and just run with 3 Strikers instead of 4 but then I will be one trade "behind" each round.

 

[Tails]

My other option would be to remove Renshaw to a cheapie tomorrow then do the reverse trade for Round 2 and just run with 3 Strikers instead of 4 but then I will be one trade "behind" each round.

Only see three Strikers next round that I initially want so you may not behind as much as you envisage ...

 

[Diabolical]

Only see three Strikers next round that I initially want so you may not behind as much as you envisage ...

Who are they?
I have Renshaw & Salt and feel I should include Rashid. However, there are a few others that worry me!

 

[Tails]

Who are they?
I have Renshaw & Salt and feel I should include Rashid. However, there are a few others that worry me!

Khan, Weatherald and Renshaw ..... don't trust Salt and haven't considered Worrall but not out of the equation yet ....

- Carey and Head if playing though would take precedence over Salt and Worrall ..

 

[Herbie66]

Only see three Strikers next round that I initially want so you may not behind as much as you envisage ...

I will have a think about things tomorrow.

Planning was for Khan , Siddle (?) & Wells to add to Renshaw.

Carey for Round 3 + 2 adjustment trades.

Need to work out my plan if attack for Renegades/Sixers.

Think my Stars & Hurricanes are going to drop more money than originally anticipated so don't want to end up taking compromised picks if I don't have too.